-46% chance to beat Iowa (Kenpom)
-65% chance to win first BTT game (we were 77% to beat NW at home on Kenpom last week so I figure that's a conservative guess on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)
-30% chance to win 2nd round BTT game (we were 22% to win at Maryland on Kenpom last week, 30% seems reasonable on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)
-25% to win a semifinal game in BTT (same logic as above plus fatigue and possibly better opponent)
Scenario 1: If we beat Iowa and lose first BTT game, 80% chance to make tournament (these are all guesses, you might disagree)
Scenario 2: If we beat Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 95% chance to make tournament
Scenario 3: If we beat Iowa and win two BTT games, 100% chance to make tournament
Scenario 4: If we lose to Iowa and lose first BTT game, 10% chance to make tournament
Scenario 5: If we lose to Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 50% chance to make tournament
Scenario 6: If we lose to Iowa and go 2-1 in BTT, 80% chance to make tournament
Scenario 7: If we lose to Iowa and reach BTT finals, 100% chance to make tournament
If you do the math based on my assumptions above and add up the chances of these scenarios actually happening, you get:
Scenario 1 (12.88%) + Scenario 2 (20.93%) + Scenario 3 (8.97%) + Scenario 4 (1.89%) + Scenario 5 (12.29%) + Scenario 6 (6.32%) + Scenario 7 (2.63%)= 65.91% chance for Michigan to make the tournament
Does that sound right or are my guesses too generous/harsh?
Sure do miss him...
Not a ton to say but a lot of interesting things happened. We lost 68-57.
Duncan hit some shots.Irvin had a ton of turnovers. We missed wide-open layiups. We shot less threes, and that wasn't the focal point of our offense. We shot a lot of mid-range. Doyle played better than Donnal (both played bad defense, but Doyle played well on offense.) One of their seniors had an amazing moment.
#20 Purdue beats #10 Maryland at home 83-79. This doesn't make a big difference to our bubble status, becuase we went 1-1 against both teams.
In Duke's game gainst Florida State, Grayson Allen tripped Xavier Rathan-Mayes, and it looked like it was purposeful. This is the second time Allen has tripped a player this season.
When a player for Oregon State tripped a referee he recieved a four-game suspension. When Diamond Stone tackled a player, Maryland gave him a one game suspension.
But the ACC isn't giving Allen a suspension, and it doesn't seem like Duke is going to give him one either. Should he have gotten a suspension, or is it just the ACC not wanting to give him a suspension because he playes at Duke?