Question on Wagner

Question on Wagner

Submitted by LLG on April 2nd, 2018 at 5:54 PM

While we are all waiting for the game, I thought I'd pose a genuine question about Mo Wagner for the Board -- particularly those who know a lot about basketball.  In my exuberance over Wagner's excellence, I mentioned to people that he should be a top 10 pick in the draft.  My brief reasoning was the a 6 foot 11 inch player who can shoot 3 pointers is valuable in the NBA today particularly because he looks like he is going to fill out and gain weight.  This was immediately guffawed by the other people around me (who aren't Michigan fans) and I did some research on it.  I was suprised that he isn't more highly regarded for the NBA.

What am I missing about today's NBA and/or Wagner's skills that don't make a higher draft pick?  And, separate question, how many spots has this tournament's play moved him up?

Any thoughtful answers greatly appreciated.  Dayenu!  And Let's Go Blue! 

Early Evening Drinking Thread/National Championship, Let's Go!!!

Early Evening Drinking Thread/National Championship, Let's Go!!!

Submitted by CoMisch on April 2nd, 2018 at 5:33 PM

Fuck yeah, friends!  Natty C tonight.  Finishing up a growler of Fat Head's Hop JuJu that I got for the semis.  Will switch over to my favorite 15 pack (All Day IPA) later.   This game can't start soon enough.  Let's go!!!!  Go Blue!!

Since We've Established We Cannot Work Today, How Are You Passing Time?

Since We've Established We Cannot Work Today, How Are You Passing Time?

Submitted by JWG Wolverine on April 2nd, 2018 at 2:56 PM

I know, this thread is stupid. But I, like many of us, don't know what to do with myself right now.

What you're supposed to do in the comments is pretty self-explanatory.

Me? I'm bingewatching Michigan Basketball, with games and moments such as:

  • 2013 Elite 8 Game vs Florida, and Nik Stauskas going OFF
  • 2018 UM/MSU, both the first and second one
  • 2018 UM/OSU
  • 2017 and 18 Big Ten Championship Games
  • 2017 Practice Jersey Game
  • 2017 vs Louisville 2nd Round
  • The Shot Game (Both Trey's and Jordan's)
  • 1992 Elite 8 and 1993 Final Four Games
  • 2013 National Championship (but NOT the whole game, just Spike stunning Dick Vitale)
  • 2018 Sweet Sixteen vs. Texas A&M

and lastly...

  • 1989 National Championship Game

 

Let's do what Michigan Basketball does, and Shock The World tonight. 

Go Blue.

Stay positive tonight ..plz

Stay positive tonight ..plz

Submitted by ralphgoblue on April 2nd, 2018 at 1:28 PM

Back in December if someone wouldve said Michigan is going to play in the National Championship game vs the best team in NCAA, we wouldve all jumped on that in a heart beat.With all due respect to Virginias great season,i think most people would say Villanova is the best team in college basketball

Of course we all want Michigan to win (i picked the Wolverines 79-68)  but if Nova is on fire it will be a hard task to win this game,we have seen Michigan go thru a few shootting slumps,we need 4-5 guys to be on fire to win this game.So no matter whats happens,plz dont jump all over Coach Beilein or the players,(like we always see in game threads)  these guys are about to face a great college basketball team

Win or lose this has been one of the greatest seasons in mens basketball history !!!

GO BLUE !!!!

Villanova's Implacable Death Machine Has Played Defenses Like Ours Before

Villanova's Implacable Death Machine Has Played Defenses Like Ours Before

Submitted by stephenrjking on April 2nd, 2018 at 1:07 PM

They are terrifying. The world believes, with ample reason, that they are going to carve us to pieces.

I had entertained the thought that maaaaaybe playing a defense of our caliber would result in different results than they're accustomed to. After all, we're really good. 

So I checked. And it turns out Villanova has played a defense like ours.

We are the kenpom #3 defense; Texas Tech is the #4 defense (paired with a kenpom #51 offense). And Villanova just beat them, by 12 points. 

And, uh, shot 4-24 from 3-point range. Brunson scored 15 points on 18 shot equivalents. They won based upon going 29-35 at the line.

So, um, they probably played a lot of good Ds in the Big East, right? I checked the kenpom D rankings, just scrolling and looking for "BE" in the conference file. 

After Villanova itself, the top BE defense I found was St. John's (#29), whom they played twice this year. In the first game at MSG, Donte DiVincenzo went 6-9 from 3 and Villanova won easily by (checks notes) 7 points, 78-71. In the second game, at Nova, Villanova... er, lost 79-75 while shooting 24% from deep.

Scrolling down the kenpom D rankings, the next BE team, at #39, is Providence. Their last meeting, at Providence? Um, 76-71 Providence, with Nova shooting an improbable 3-20 from beyond the arc.

D them up. Hope that the 30% chance our offense shows is a hit. And then, you never know.

Can anyone do work right now?

Can anyone do work right now?

Submitted by taistreetsmyhero on April 2nd, 2018 at 1:05 PM

I've got a couple deadlines looming over my head but I am incapable of concentrating right now. Between SAMgO getting me irrationally hungry for a DiBella's sub that is 2,300 miles away and Brian's preview laying out all of the (totally doable) things we need to pull off the victory tonight, I can't think of anything other than tip-off.

How likely are we to revert to the mean?

How likely are we to revert to the mean?

Submitted by Bo Glue on April 2nd, 2018 at 12:08 PM

Been crunching some numbers to see just how bad our luck has been on 3 point shooting this postseason. It's been a bit of a shock to me because most of the looks were open; these are not heavily contested attempts or bad flow for the most part. For context, here's our shooting in the regular season versus the postseason:

3 point shooting
  3PM 3PA 3P%
Regular Season 289 778 37.1%
Big Ten Tourney 31 90 34.4%
March Madness 38 120 31.7%

It's been awful. So it seems we are due for some regression to the mean. That begs the question: how likely are we to return all the way to the mean? TL;DR - it's a long shot.

Just to simplify, in the below I assume each attempt is an independent trial. I also assume each shot has a 37.1% chance of going in (to way more decimal points). Furthermore, I assume we can just look at our odds of hitting the right number of attempts out of 11, 12, etc. and summing them.

I admit I had to google around for the math and used the Binomial Probability model outlined here. Specifically, to calculate the odds of having at least X Makes for a given Y Attempts, I summed for X through Y the value of:

(makes choose attempts) * (odds to make ^ makes) * (odds to miss ^ misses)

Raw numbers are here. Caveats aside, this analysis is meant to provide some perspective. I computed the likelihood we get our March Madness shooting percentage back up to the regular season average as about 1 in 237.

Game
3PA
Minimum
Game 3PM
Minimum
Game 3P%
Makes
Probability
Attempt
Odds
Adjusted
Probability
9 N/A N/A 0.00000% 0.07% 0.00000%
10 N/A N/A 0.00000% 0.12% 0.00000%
11 11 100.00% 0.00186% 0.22% 0.00000%
12 12 100.00% 0.00069% 0.37% 0.00000%
13 12 92.31% 0.00590% 0.60% 0.00004%
14 12 85.71% 0.02717% 0.94% 0.00026%
15 13 86.67% 0.01157% 1.41% 0.00016%
16 13 81.25% 0.04054% 2.03% 0.00082%
17 13 76.47% 0.11337% 2.80% 0.00317%
18 14 77.78% 0.05351% 3.70% 0.00198%
19 14 73.68% 0.13356% 4.69% 0.00626%
20 15 75.00% 0.06528% 5.69% 0.00372%
21 15 71.43% 0.14983% 6.63% 0.00994%
22 15 68.18% 0.30926% 7.41% 0.02292%
23 16 69.57% 0.16229% 7.94% 0.01289%
24 16 66.67% 0.31925% 8.16% 0.02605%
25 16 64.00% 0.58234% 8.04% 0.04683%
26 17 65.38% 0.32397% 7.60% 0.02462%
27 17 62.96% 0.57351% 6.89% 0.03950%
28 17 60.71% 0.95849% 5.99% 0.05737%
29 18 62.07% 0.55994% 4.99% 0.02793%
30 18 60.00% 0.91772% 3.99% 0.03659%
31 19 61.29% 0.54293% 3.06% 0.01659%
32 19 59.38% 0.87492% 2.25% 0.01965%
33 19 57.58% 1.35187% 1.58% 0.02140%
34 20 58.82% 0.83120% 1.07% 0.00890%
35 20 57.14% 1.26960% 0.69% 0.00881%
36 20 55.56% 1.87237% 0.43% 0.00807%
37 21 56.76% 1.19042% 0.26% 0.00306%
38 21 55.26% 8.74323% 0.15% 0.01285%
39 22 56.41% 1.11469% 0.08% 0.00090%
40 22 55.00% 1.61939% 0.04% 0.00069%

So it's a long shot, but better than 1 in 250. Now, if we include all of the postseason and just look at what our odds are to even finish with that shooting percentage for the tourney (assuming the up to date 36.2% is correct), it's about three times more likely: 1 in 78.

Game
3PA
Minimum
Game 3PM
Minimum
Game 3P%
Makes
Probability
Attempt
Odds
Adjusted
Probability
9 9 100.00% 0.01077% 0.07% 0.00001%
10 10 100.00% 0.00390% 0.12% 0.00000%
11 10 90.91% 0.02878% 0.22% 0.00006%
12 10 83.33% 0.11604% 0.37% 0.00043%
13 11 84.62% 0.04927% 0.60% 0.00030%
14 11 78.57% 0.15410% 0.94% 0.00145%
15 11 73.33% 0.38807% 1.41% 0.00549%
16 12 75.00% 0.18463% 2.03% 0.00375%
17 12 70.59% 0.42052% 2.80% 0.01177%
18 13 72.22% 0.20743% 3.70% 0.00767%
19 13 68.42% 0.43907% 4.69% 0.02057%
20 13 65.00% 0.83999% 5.69% 0.04782%
21 14 66.67% 0.44669% 6.63% 0.02963%
22 14 63.64% 0.82078% 7.41% 0.06083%
23 14 60.87% 1.40388% 7.94% 0.11149%
24 15 62.50% 0.79304% 8.16% 0.06472%
25 15 60.00% 1.32425% 8.04% 0.10650%
26 15 57.69% 2.09407% 7.60% 0.15915%
27 16 59.26% 1.24321% 6.89% 0.08563%
28 16 57.14% 1.93690% 5.99% 0.11594%
29 16 55.17% 2.88962% 4.99% 0.14416%
30 17 56.67% 1.78852% 3.99% 0.07131%
31 17 54.84% 2.64348% 3.06% 0.08079%
32 18 56.25% 1.64936% 2.25% 0.03705%
33 18 54.55% 2.41783% 1.58% 0.03828%
34 18 52.94% 3.42848% 1.07% 0.03669%
35 19 54.29% 2.21119% 0.69% 0.01534%
36 19 52.78% 3.11931% 0.43% 0.01345%
37 19 51.35% 4.27743% 0.26% 0.01100%
38 20 52.63% 2.83934% 0.15% 0.00417%
39 20 51.28% 3.88152% 0.08% 0.00313%
40 20 50.00% 5.17738% 0.04% 0.00219%

Thanks very much to J. for catching some errors in my initial analysis.

It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan

It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan

Submitted by Communist Football on April 2nd, 2018 at 11:55 AM

We don't seem to talk about it anymore, but the Michigan basketball teams of the mid-to-late 1980s, under Bill Frieder, were consistently ranked in the AP top 5. But like the Red Wings teams of the early 1990s and 2000s, Michigan's talent never seemed to go anywhere in the NCAA tournament. Frieder's teams would get #1 or #2 seeds in the tournament, and then flame out in the first or second rounds.

The 1984-85 team was the first of those quintessential Frieder teams. 7 players from that squad were drafted: Roy Tarpley (7th overall 1986, the 1985 Big Ten Player of the Year, #42 in the pic to the right), Gary Grant (15th overall 1988), Richard Rellford, Butch Wade, Antoine Joubert, and Robert Henderson. The team went 26-4 overall and 16-2 in the Big Ten.

Michigan entered the 1985 NCAA tournament—its first trip to the Big Dance in eight years—on a roll. They had won 16 straight games to enter the tournament, were ranked #2 in the country (second only to Patrick Ewing's Georgetown), were seeded #1 in the Southeast region, and defeated Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round 59-55.

They then faced an unheralded #8-seeded Villanova team in the Round of 32, coached by Rollie Massimino. Villanova had lost 10 games, but 2 of those were to #1 Georgetown and 3 were to #3 St. John's, led by Chris Mullin and Bill Wennington.

Here's an excerpt from the Chicago Tribune's account of that game, which Villanova won 59-55. Frieder blamed his team's youth and inexperience on the big stage for the loss:

"It helps playing against Patrick Ewing twice a year," said Villanova center Ed Pinckney, referring to Georgetown`s 7-foot All-America. "That`s enough to set you up to go against the best..."

"Our conference definitely prepared us," said Wildcat forward Dwayne McClain, whose deadly outside shooting led to 20 points and a wrecked Michigan defense. "We have great centers and we have great guards in our league. I didn`t think we were underdogs."

Coach Rollie Massimino`s experienced team, which starts three seniors, showed its poise by not panicking while going scoreless for the opening 7 minutes 44 seconds of the second half. That drought enabled the Wolverines to build a 35-30 advantage, their biggest of the game.

"I'd hoped we could get ahead and speed up the tempo," said Michigan coach Bill Frieder. "But we couldn`t sustain it, and they were perfect at countering almost everything we tried the rest of the way. In all honesty, I think their six straight years in the NCAAs and our inexperience showed."

Michigan, which started three juniors, a sophomore and a freshman, won the National Invitation Tournament last year but was making its first NCAA appearance since 1977.

"Gary Grant was an example of a freshman," said Frieder, whose team finished 26-4. "He`s got great talent, but he`s got a lot to learn."

There was no shot clock in those days, which allowed Villanova to slow down the high-flying Michigan offense:

Grant went scoreless for the first time in his collegiate career and fouled out. Michigan`s point total was its lowest this season. Wolverine center Roy Tarpley got only 2 of his team-high 14 points in the second half. 

"I thought if the game would be in the 60s or 70s, we`d be okay," said Frieder. "But it turned out to be the type of game I really expected. They`ve lost 10 games, but they've lost to teams like Georgetown, St. John`s, Syracuse, Maryland. They have 10 losses, but they don`t look like it."

This is the third time Villanova`s seniors have advanced to the final 16 teams, missing last year when they lost to Illinois. Massimino said he thought the past performances were a big factor.

"You have to feel sorry for Grant," said Massimino. "Experience is very important in a game like this. When these guys were freshmen, we had trouble getting out of close ones. I told my players to try and relate to that before the game."

Villanova never relinquished the lead after going up 38-37 on a free throw by Gary McLain with 7:32 left.

"Thank God the shot clock was off," said Massimino, whose Wildcats squeezed every possible second from each possession. "These kids have been through this sort of thing before."

Villanova's poise was evident at the free-throw line, where they hit 12 of 15 in the final 2:10. The Wildcats made 25 free throws in the game, compared to just three for the Wolverines.

"We really had trouble adjusting to the slow pace," said Michigan guard Antoine Joubert. "We like to run, and we`re used to it. When we tried to get it inside to Tarpley, they were really sagging on him."

In a later recollection, the Wildcats' Ed Pinckney agreed that Villanova's experience and low-tempo strategy were the keys to victory:

"Everyone on the team knew we’d beat Michigan. We kept telling each other, "We play Georgetown and St. Johns. They don’t." The guys on Michigan were mostly freshman and sophomores. Our guys – particularly the seniors – were indignant about that – that they were so young and favored over a veteran team like ours. Michigan was athletic. Thy wanted to play a fast-paced game. But we were feeling like, "You guys are the underclassmen. We’re not going to let you dictate the pace of this game." We didn’t feel they could apply the kind of pressure Georgetown does. We were determined to execute properly and we did. That game was almost fun. We were confident. We didn’t feel pressure at all."

Villanova, of course, ended up defeating Georgetown for their first national championship, in a game that is the second-biggest point-spread upset in NCAA championship game history.

Here's hoping that Gary Grant and the rest of those 1985 stars are in the Alamodome tonight. Roy Tarpley can't join them because, after a troubled pro career filled with drug and alcohol problems, he died in 2015. It's sad for many reasons—from today's standpoint, especially because Roy Tarpley would have been an outstanding player in Beilein's system: a 7-footer who had a great all-around game.

The game is different now, and Villanova today is much better coached than those Frieder teams of the '80s. But if they could do it us, why can't we do it to them?

Any Pics/Video from MGoParty? - Oh, and 2 FREE Tickets for Tonight

Any Pics/Video from MGoParty? - Oh, and 2 FREE Tickets for Tonight

Submitted by bigdemo on April 2nd, 2018 at 11:53 AM

 

The party last night was an excellent start, but tonight should be better!  Singing the greatest fight song ever written with over 125 new friends was perfect.  If you have video and pictures please share them w/ me here, on twitter, or by email (info below).  

HomeSure Lending thanks you for the write-off, and I personally thank you so much for making this community of nerdy, over-the-top fans, so amazing. 

On to the fun part.   I ended up with lower level seats after initially buying tickets last week. Ticket prices have fallen, StubHub is still charging $43 of fees per seat, and I don't want to focus on anything but basketball today.  

Soooooo.....  If you are down here in San Antonio and need a pair of tickets, I am giving two of mine away.  322 Row 10.

To enter, follow my twitter @themgobus and tweet at me with the hashtag #mattstix and #goblue w/ your best picture and or story from the weekend.

Entries due at 1pm CST. I will pick the best tweet at 1:30pm and announce (by tweet) who won. 

GO BLUE!

mgoblog (a) homesurelending.com