That's MGoPhotographer Patrick Barron, who does a lot more than MGoBlog stuff. Check out his Etsy at www.etsy.com/shop/bluebarronphoto

I've been tracking changes in recruiting rankings at regular intervals, since sometimes the shift tells us more about the star than the brightness. I think the sites are done with their re-ranks after the all star games now, and several of the 2019s moved substantially.

Please remember the rules (even though they're theories):

  1. Gravity! Players will slowly drop as more players get scouted. Moving up means you did something; slowly dropping a few spots means the guy is the same.
  2. Climate! The rankings have more than player goodness in them. They'll overtly bump guys who went to their camps over those who didn't, for example. ESPN doesn't pretend to care about recruiting outside of the southeast, or bother to rank 2020 3-stars from the Midwest.
  3. Measurements! If you follow recruiting you know the various rating systems. Rivals uses the old National Recruiting Advisor system: 6.1 is a 5-star, 3.7 is a high three-star, etc. ESPN is on a 100 scale where the 70s are three-stars,. 247Sports is on 100-ish scale where the 80s are three-stars, and their composite is that but a percent.

Let's go to the re-ranks! I'll highlight big leaps up in green and big drops in red.

QB Cade McNamara

Service Feb 2019 Dec 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018
247Sports 90 (#8 PRO)
#375 OVR
90 (#10 PRO)
#351 OVR
90 (#10 PRO)
#321 OVR
90 (#10 PRO)
#310 OVR
90 (#9 PRO)
#305 OVR
Rivals 5.8 (#8 PRO)
not ranked
5.8 (#8 PRO)
not ranked
5.8 (#10 PRO)
not ranked
5.8 (#9 PRO)
not ranked
5.8 (#9 PRO)
not ranked
ESPN 81 (#12 PRO)
#253 OVR
81 (#13 PRO)
#257 OVR
81 (#14 PRO)
#240 OVR
78 (#8 PRO)
#296 OVR
78 (#8 PRO)
#296 OVR
Composite 0.9052 (#7 PRO)
#268 OVR
0.9048 (#11 PRO)
#275 OVR
0.9067 (#10 PRO)
#269 OVR
0.9067 (#10 PRO)
#263 OVR
0.9004 (#9 PRO)
#316 OVR

Cade more or less ended up where he began. The only slight excitement over his rankings history was staying ahead of all the guys ESPN added as they filled in behind the other sites. He was the #45 player in the West to the Worldwide Leader when he committed, and finished #38. That site is the highest on McNamara, ranking him in their top 300 while 247 and Rivals have him hanging out just above the 4-stars line.

What's the delta say? That stability speaks to a guy who met expectations. I believe an early Michigan commitment also played a role in maintaining McNamara's status at the top of the wave of guys who are good but not elite.

RB Zach Charbonnet

image

I got this from MGoFish who got it from Bobby Curtis/Acorn Newspapers

Service Feb 2019 Dec 2018 Aug 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018
247Sports 97 (#4 RB) #38 OVR 97 (#3 RB) #26 OVR 95 (#4 RB) #40 OVR 91 (#9 RB) #220 OVR #209 OVR
Rivals 6.0 (#4 RB) #60 OVR 6.0 (#4 RB) #60 OVR 5.8 (#20 RB) not ranked 5.8 (#20 RB) not ranked  
ESPN 84 (#5 RB) #101 OVR 84 (#6 RB) #105 OVR 80 (#26 RB) not ranked 80 (#26 RB) not ranked  
Composite 0.9760 (#4 RB)#46 OVR 0.9800 (#3 RB)#42 OVR 0.9240 (#10 RB)#187 OVR 0.9000 (#15 RB)#302 OVR #277 OVR

After Michigan, 247Sports was the first to see Zach Charbonnet as an elite running back prospect. Rivals and ESPN were playing catch-up after the season, when 247 was even more enamored with him. Fortunately for those of us who were concerned about Michigan's luck with site-sanctioned running backs, a small injury held Charbonnet out of his All-Star game last month, and that prevented what seemed an inevitable push up the rankings and that dangerous fifth star.

What's the delta say? This is a borderline 5-star prospects that Michigan found early and the sites were slow to catch up, though catch up they did.

[After THE JUMP: Big guys who go up and little guys they don't know what to do with]

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #6 Michigan (22-3) vs
#15 Maryland (19-6)
WHERE Crisler Arena
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon Saturday
LINE Michigan –7, 72% to win (Kenpom)
Michigan –6.8, 77% to win (Torvik)
TV FOX

THE US

All basketball teams not sporting historic combinations of NBA talent acquired entirely on the up-and-up will fart out the occasional game like Michigan's most recent one, an inexplicable first half against Penn State that Michigan couldn't quite overcome thanks to oh I don't know a JOHN BEILEIN EJECTION so absurd in its deployment that I can scarcely believe it happened days later.

Anyway here's home/road in college basketball: Michigan has basically an identical chance to win at home against #15 than on the road against #62. This is good, mostly: Michigan's got almost 3/4ths of the happy feelings after this one. Just forget about the last game. Immediately, and totally.

THE LINEUP CARD

Click for big.

image (26)

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 1 Anthony Cowan Jr. 6'0, 170 85 26 109 Meh
Mini-Carsen-Edwards in a bit of a funk shooting just 46/33 on season with reduced FT rate. Otherwise same player as last year.
G 5 Eric Ayala Fr. 6'5, 205 72 16 111 No
Composite #78 FR. 47% from three, worse inside arc with 24 TO rate. Get all his own shots inside arc though?
F 11 Darryl Morsell So. 6'5, 200 61 18 101 Meh
Miraculously low FT rate for guy with half his shots at the rim. Doesn't convert there, iffy on threes (30%), high TO rate. In sum: bleah.
C 25 Jalen Smith Fr. 6'10 215 64 23 117 Yes
Lanky goggled C playing a bit out of position most of the time thanks to Fernando. 56/27 from floor, rock bottom TO rate. Mostly assisted at rim; 66% there ain't great for 6'10 leaper.
C 23 Bruno Fernando So. 6'10, 240 73 24 121 Yes
Modern NBA C on track for late 1st round pick. 69% from floor, huge FT rate, hits 'em, rebound vacuum, TOs only major flaw.
F 2 Aaron Wiggins Fr. 6'6, 200 60 17 111 No
Composite #42 FR. May have bigger 2/3 eFG gap than anyone in the country: 32% from two with just 21 FTAs on year, 42% from three.
G 10 Serrel Smith Fr 6'4 170 33 16 99 Meh
Composite #154 FR. Poor shooting inside and out, 20 TO rate, low usage.
F 14 Ricky Lindo Fr. 6'8 200 33 11 90 Yes
#446 FR per 247, no composite. Does nothing except rebound.
F 13 Ivan Bender Sr 6'9 228 9 14 55 Yes
Deeeeep bench guy hasn't taken a shot since Jan. 5th and usually gets 1-3 MPG.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

maybe?

Looks like it’s going to be another big visit weekend in Ann Arbor. 247’s Steve Lorenz has the list and the name that stands out as the one who’s ranked highest and most likely to be swayed by Michigan is four-star MI DE Braiden McGregor. You may remember from the last roundup that McGregor was the one whose basketball game was attended by Jim Harbaugh, Sherrone Moore, and Shaun Nua, along with Michigan State headman Mike D’Antoni Mark Dantonio and a couple Notre Dame coaches. People want him to come play football at their school, it seems. Lorenz writes that he believes McGregor’s family prefers Michigan and that Michigan’s staff will make a big push for him this weekend. His most recent crystal ball, this one from Steve Wiltfong, is a couple weeks old and is foggy. The other four are old and split 2-2 between Michigan and Notre Dame; maybe this weekend provides some clarity for the prospect Lorenz believes could be the top prospect on the Michigan staff’s big board right now.

Another four-star prospect with an interesting crystal ball who will be on campus this weekend is MD WR Taeshon Holden. Currently forecast 100% to West Virginia, Lorenz says he’s no longer believed to be a lock to move to Morgantown. Holden is teammates with current commit MD LB Osman Savage and is co-head coached by former Michigan staffer and dad of guy with excellent food opinions (and a dang good fullback, S/O Henry Poggi) Biff Poggi. We’ll probably have a better idea how much those connections matter after this weekend.

Michigan, undeterred by Rutger basketball’s recent Res Inn conference room thievery, is making a push to reassert their recruiting prowess in New Jersey. That starts with getting some of their best prospects to open the garden fence and take a visit to Ann Arbor. One player who might be taking a Michigan visit in the near future is four-star NJ S Jordan Morant. Lorenz believes that Morant is one of the top safeties on Michigan’s board, and 247 analyst Brian Dohn believes that Morant will be in Ann Arbor sometime this month or next month Lorenz adds that three-star NJ DE Aaron Lewis is another Jersey boy to keep an eye on, as staffs at big schools around the country have seen his film and started to offer.

[Let's talk about organic chemistry after THE JUMP]

Where have you gone Ted Valentine, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Quinn Hughes carries the puck up ice against Minnesota

A look at two important factors in Michigan's final four regular-season games

in which John Beilein dons a hat 

John Beilein got ejected; Michigan lost.

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