[JD Scott]


WHAT #5 Michigan (28-6) vs
#137 Montana (26-8)
WHERE HomeSure Lending Arena
Des Moines, IA
WHEN 9:20 PM
LINE Michigan –17, 93% to win (Kenpom)
Michigan –17.7, 96% to win (Torvik)


Time to shake off the last game and resume Beilein time. Coaches versus expectations in the tournament since 2000:


PAKE = performance against Kenpom expectations. PASE = performance against seed expectations. Michigan has a rather good coach, especially once you adjust for the fact that due to Circumstances Beilein has just 10 appearances in the round of 64 versus 14, 19, 14, and 18 for the other guys on the list. On a per-appearance basis nobody does it like Beilein.

As the man says, LFG.


image (39)_thumb[1]

Click for big.

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country. Minutes are from the last five games except where starred.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 0 Ahmaad Rorie Sr. 6'1, 183 91 22 117 No
Will get to the rim some but mostly a shooter. Shooting 54/36 with low TO rate and solid assist rate, doesn't draw FTs.
G 34 Michael Oguine Sr. 6'2, 180 79 22 117 No
Slasher with a backup plan. Half his shots at rim, 65% there, few other twos, 35% from three, gets to line.
G 21 Timmy Falls Jr. 6'2, 165 62 16 90 Meh
Promoted to starting lineup for last 4; 31 TO rate and shooting 41/33. Yikes.
F 35 Sayeed Pridgett Jr. 6'5 200 82 25 112 Ish
Post specialist gets more than half his shots at the rim and converts at 74%, most unassisted. 47% from three but only 38 attempts on year.
F 22 Bobby Moorehead Sr. 6'10, 225 75 11 102 Meh
Wing Just A Shooter forced into 20 MPG at C. 31% from deep.
G 23 Kendal Manuel Jr. 6'4, 177 41 22 112 No
Not Just A Shooter But Should Be: 43/43 split, meh 17 TO rate. Might be horrible on D if Falls is playing over him?
F 1 Donaven Dorsey Sr. 6'7, 216 22 15 119 No
Another Just A Shooter wing playing C. 46% from three though.
C 2 Mack Anderson Fr. 6'9, 202 32 14 98 Yes
The usual freshman C who does nothing but dunk and turn the ball over. 1.1 block rate.
C 15 Ben Carter Sr. 6'10, 282 0 17 37 Yes
Has seen 1 minute in the last 11 games but I am duty bound to place him on the list.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Things discussed:

  • The State game: reftastic end to a great game—the biggest issue was Michigan ran out of offensive ideas against Tillman. You could see the change in the building as soon as that dude went out. Between Tillman autobench and Winston autobench we'll take Tillman on the bench all time.
  • Michigan's draw: tough to gauge because Nevada played just one top 50 opponent and went 1-1. How much of their #25 ranking on Kenpom is because of one bad game against New Mexico (NNTNMS)
  • Similar to last year: FSU, Montana, funky bracket. Gonzaga is with some zone-y weird teams, but Syracuse runs NO offense.
  • Need Charles Matthews to be an efficient baseline cutter
  • Teams to avoid in your bracket: Kansas State—worst injury situation.
  • Louisville can beat MSU; Minnesota can't. What happens when Minnesota has their best game? They beat Purdue.
  • Ed loves Kentucky, Brian thinks Wofford can shoot the cats out of the tournament.
  • Avoid Kansas: Sam agrees with Seth that Northeastern is like a late aughts Beilien Michigan team.
  • Auburn is so weird: 330th at D-Rebs, try to block and steal everything
  • Michigan's run: Brian's concerned about Texas Tech or another defensive team forcing us into a long scoring drought.
  • Sweet Sixteen or Final Four: nothing in between
  • Next year: Franz Wagner can shoot—add a shooter to this team and you're in business
  • Brian's bracket: Three ACC teams and Texas Tech.

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Podbean.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.


It's not like my eight minutes of Louisville

[Isaiah Hole/WolverinesWire]

Coach, tell us how it’s been in your short time so far here in Ann Arbor.

“It’s been good. It’s been really good. It’s a great honor to be here. Grateful for the opportunity to be at such a prestige school at such a high level. It’s been great. Cold as well.”

Why did you come to Michigan?

“It’s Michigan, man. You know, if you’re in this profession, if you’re a player or coach, you want to be the best. You want to be at the top. You want to compete at the highest level, and it can’t get any higher than this. Everything’s set up so we can get some goals accomplished and get there. Michigan can help us do that.”

On a somewhat inexperienced line, with losing guys, is it good to have a Carlo Kemp?

Great to have a Carlo Kemp, Kwity Paye, Aidan Hutchinson, even Jeter. Those guys—and Dwumfour. Those guys had some experience. I don’t know if all of them got to start but just the films we watched, experience is so invaluable. It’s great to have a young group with some experience so yes, it is really good to have a Carlo Kemp.”

How much film did you watch of last season to a feel for these guys?

“Every game. You try to watch every game and learn the defense that way and try to learn the personnel and yeah, so a lot.”

How would you describe your coaching philosophy?

“High energy, good teacher, and someone that can rally the guys and just come together and help each other accomplish team goals.”

[Talking about a post-Chase/Rashan/Mone DL after THE JUMP]

Jim Harbaugh in spring

Springbits offense has a bit of injury news

Michigan's first 2021 commit will be referred to as GEH when people resort to shorthand and that's really something 

We couldn't get experts so we just yammered about the teams you shouldn't pick until we talked ourselves into picking them.

Come for the bid reminiscing, stay for the otter flip-flop, continue staying for congress doing something good maybe