Rankings Roundup after Week 9: CFP, AP, SP+ 

I usually try to post this on Monday, but I wanted to wait for the CFP rankings to come out last night. With the CFP rankings on Tuesday nights, I’ll probably be posting this on Wednesday from now on. So anyway, here are the numbers after week 9.

COMPARING CFP, AP, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)

Astute observers will recognize that I replaced the Coaches Poll with the CFP. I didn’t want the graphs to be too cluttered and, well, the Coaches Poll sucks anyway. 

The CFP committee has decided to buck the trend and put the Buckeyes at #1. IMO they haven’t really passed the eye test to be the #1 team in the country, but I’m fine with it. It’ll all work itself out in the end. 

There were, however, two people that were up in arms about the CFP rankings. It wasn’t about OSU being #1 or Georgia being snubbed at the #2 position. No, their beef was about something else entirely. 

How dare the CFP not consider the integrity of the game!

SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)

Focusing on the SP+ …

6 weeks at #1 and counting.

And now, if anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:

• #13 Kansas State @ #5 Texas
• #17 Texas A&M @ #16 Ole Miss
• #9 Notre Dame @ #21 Clemson
• #20 Missouri @ #2 Georgia
• #11 Oklahoma @ #33 Oklahoma State
• #7 Washington @ #14 USC
• #12 LSU @ #6 Alabama

Meanwhile, in the B1G…

Good shit, Iowa!

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 9

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

• Top-right: Good at offense and defense
• Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
• Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
• Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.4 standard deviations above the mean from the average SP+ offense, and 2.1 standard deviations below the mean (this is good) from the average SP+ defense.   

Michigan, Georgia, and Texas are now the only two teams that are more than 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the right direction) on both offense and defense. Michigan and Iowa are basically bunk mates, and Iowa drew the bottom bunk. They better hope, like all of us, that Michigan doesn’t shit the bed this week.

Speaking of this weekend’s opponent, Purdue is…not Michigan.

SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference. Notre Dame is now excluded from the ACC. Thanks for the comments/suggestions on this. 

And because some readers asked for it, here’s the graph after conference realignment.

Anything you find interesting? Want me to explore in the future?

Thanks for reading. 

Go Blue!