One Foot Down and the other in your ASS - ND 2024 Schedule and Expectation

Submitted by HAIL 2 VICTORS on May 3rd, 2024 at 4:33 PM

Interesting (TO HELL WITH NOTRE DAME!) article over at One Foot Down discussing the ND football 35 year championship drought, where the program is at and what could be in store for 2024.

The 2024 schedule makes 2023 Michigan look like murderers row with only Texas A&M (opener), Purdue and USC away from South Bend.

This Year's Path

Texas A&M (7-6 in 2023. Haven't won 10 games since 2012. Maybe give them credit for 9-1 in 2020)

NIU (7-6 in 2023. Pretty up and down over the last 10 years.)

Purdue (4-8 in 2023. Haven't won 10 games since 1979! 3 winning seasons in the last 10 years)

Miami OH (11-3 in 2023 and a conference championship. Sleeper? 3 winning seasons in 10 years, though)

Louisville (10-4 in 2023. Lost 3 straight to end the season. A fairly consistent team over the years)

Stanford (3-9 in 2023. That was their 3rd straight 3-9 season. They haven't been good since 2018)

Georgia Tech (7-6 in 2023. It was their first winning season since 2018.)

Navy (5-7 in 2023. That's their 4th straight losing season.)

FSU (13-1 last year. They are on the upswing with two straight 10 win seasons after a 5 year mediocre stretch.)

Virginia (3-9 in 2023. Haven't won 10 games since 1989 and their last winning season was in 2019.)

Army (6-6 in 2023. Fairly consistent for a Service Academy with only one losing season in 8 years.)

USC (8-5 in 2023.3 winning seasons and 3 losing seasons in the last 6 years. Took a dip last year from 22.

MGlobules

May 4th, 2024 at 8:56 AM ^

Boy, if you come here to try to make a substantive comment about a post these days, you may be out of luck. I know I'm guilty myself sometimes, but the amount of silliness you have to scroll through to find thoughtful remarks is amazing. 

Just wanted to point out that this is why ND would rather not be in the SEC of B1G: They'd have to play people, and wouldn't receive nearly as much attention. 

MGlobules

May 5th, 2024 at 10:50 AM ^

Don't want to make a bigger deal of it than it is, because I looked back through my own posts and saw plenty of wisecracks. Has just seemed to happen a lot to me lately that the top is routinely meta or silly. And unfortunately, you don't really know to click the karat until you've read the stuff. 

TruBluMich

May 3rd, 2024 at 4:36 PM ^

Not a fan of Notre Dame at all but did you intend to say our 2024 schedule?  Because our 2023 schedule was pretty damn easy compared to that schedule.

NittanyFan

May 3rd, 2024 at 4:37 PM ^

Worth calling out: Notre Dame can sell that it's a "tough schedule" because they only have 6 home games (most schools have 7 or even 8), but at the same time they only play TWO TRUE road games outside the state of Indiana:

  • At Texas A&M on opening weekend.
  • AT USC the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
  • They are at Purdue, but that's of course in Indiana.
  • Their game vs Georgia Tech got moved to the Falcons Stadium (more seats for ND fans).
  • Navy is in East Rutherford, and Army is at Yankee Stadium.

Anyway, if they can get by A&M in the opener --- it will be interesting to see if that game gets scheduled to be in the hot late August sun or if it is at night ---- there's no reason they wouldn't be 10-1 at worst going into the USC game.  Like it or not, they will be in the CFP talk.

4th phase

May 3rd, 2024 at 7:26 PM ^

Yeah I mean I look at that schedule and say there is no margin for error. If I were picking the CFB I’d think they’d have to be undefeated to get in. Especially with no conference championship game. Just like Michigan last year. Any loss was an elimination. But because it expanded to 12 teams and I have no say, I suspect they are going to get heavy consideration even at 10-2. Probably over a 9-3 B1G team. 

Golden section

May 4th, 2024 at 12:02 AM ^

Even with 2 losses, from the Big Ten UM, OSU, Oregon, PSU are likely locks 

From the SEC; Bama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas. That is 9 teams.

That leaves a ton of teams vying for 3 spots;  Oklahoma, Oka State, FSU, USC, Miss, Clemson, Arizona, Washington, Louisville, Iowa and maybe a non power 5 will be in the mix. 

If ND loses 2 with that schedule I doubt they get in.  

 

Bill22

May 3rd, 2024 at 11:47 PM ^

How and why would anyone hope to bury Notre Dame?  This assumes people still give a shit about Notre Dame.  They haven’t won shit in decades, they obviously don’t play anybody and their NBC contract was impressive 30 years ago, but it doesn’t mean dick now.

Their fans are as delusional as Nebraska and Tennessee.

blueheron

May 3rd, 2024 at 4:50 PM ^

I don't have the data in front of me, but it seems like there have been many years where the Domers have caught bluebloods in "dip" years, making their schedule look more fearsome than it really is.

blueheron

May 3rd, 2024 at 5:06 PM ^

I don't really see that in the article. They cherry-picked a single season (2016). Later, "Past regimes leaned harder and harder into the path, embracing every big boy program they could find." (I'm not comfortable taking that on faith.)

In "The New Path" section you get ...

... the ACC Deal led to some lighter difficulty each season. Sure, you got Clemson a few times and FSU was good in 2014, but mostly they've had to play a bunch of 8-4 or worse ACC teams 4 to 6 times a year. USC falling flat most seasons also assisted in this lighter schedule, and Stanford and Navy rapidly descended into hot garbage perennial opponents.

... and then:

With a schedule like this, it should be easy to win 8 games in the regular season and winning 10 is well within the realm of possibility each year.

Still, I can't prove offhand that they were often lucky pre-ACC. It just feels that way.

bronxblue

May 3rd, 2024 at 5:33 PM ^

They made the playoffs during the weird 2020 season if I rememeber correctly, but 2021 was the year where they finished 5th in the regular season and would have likely gotten in over Cincy or UM had either suffered a late-season loss.  That year they went 11-1 in the regular season and beat some big-name teams like FSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, USC, and UNC while losing to Cincy, but digging in you see that:

  • FSU went 5-7 (2022 they went 10-3)
  • Purdue went 9-4
  • Wisconsin went 9-4 before the wheels came off for Chryst
  • USC went 4-8 (next year they went 11-3 with Lincoln Riley taking over)
  • UNC went 6-7 (sandwiched in between 8-4 and 9-4 seasons).

So yeah, just sort of a meh season where they looked...fine on paper but I think only Cincy finished ranked and that was their one loss.  They've had this ability to play "helmet" teams when they're sort of down, and the casual fan doesn't  realize it.