Post-Entry Outlook: Offense
A week and change on from the national title, attention now turns to the basketball program what Team 145 is going to look like. This may be an exercise in futility since there's a distinct chance that Jim Harbaugh takes an NFL job this offseason, throwing everything into a mild state of higgeldy-piggeldy. But they'd probably just plug in Sherrone Moore, avoid significant portal departures, and be more or less the same minus a predilection for weird press conferences.
So.
QUARTERBACK
Obviously the biggest question mark on the team in the aftermath of JJ McCarthy's draft entry. The options on campus do not feel like plugging in JJ McCarthy, to say the least. They are:
- Jayden Denegal, a 6'4" pocket passer who was a high three star on the composite and got a reasonable amount of garbage time last year. He'll be a redshirt sophomore next year.
- Davis Warren, a former walk-on who's looked solid in a couple of spring games but was hurt (probably) much of the year, ceding non-JJ snaps to Denegal.
- Alex Orji, a Tebow-esque runner who got on the field for various snaps down the stretch where he always ran the ball. Michigan did dial up a pass for him in the Rose Bowl but 'Bama covered it and he ran out of bounds for a two yard loss.
- Jadyn Davis, a true freshman who was a five star but has slid down recruiting boards to be a fringe top 100 prospect. Davis did join the team for bowl practices and has buckets of experience in high school.
In the season preview I asserted that the best case scenario for Michigan entering 2024 is that Orji was the clear frontrunner and I still maintain that because we have an indication he does have an elite skill. I'm not sure the Tebow/Denard offense can be a national title winner in the year of our lord 2024; neither am I sure Michigan can pivot a ton of option stuff that would be necessary. Even so: Orji has It on the ground, and I'm not sure anyone else can say they're there as a passer.
[After THE JUMP: loaded RB room… not so loaded WR room]
RUNNING BACK
[Bryan Fuller]
Donovan Edwards returns so this position is stacked. Kalel Mullings has looked the part both as a runner and a blocker. Ben Hall flashed as a freshman; Cole Cabana will return from injury; freshman Jordan Marshall was a straight-up head to head win over OSU and could be an immediate contributor.
Concerns: can Edwards be more consistent after a season that went nothing, nothing, nothing, a couple nice runs against Penn State, nothing, nothing, wins national title in the first quarter? Will Michigan explore the two-back sets featuring Mullings more? Will an expected step back in passing efficiency slow down the ground game? Etc. But the personnel will be great.
WIDE RECEIVER
The only other spot on next year's team that looks like a potential problem. Tyler Morris returns for his junior season and should be a locked-in #1. In the slot, Semaj Morgan looks like he'll be somewhere between fun and game-breaking once he shakes the freshman stuff.
Then… uh… it got kind of lonely around here. Darrius Clemons and Amorion Walker transferred—Walker spent last year at CB but was likely to move back to WR, per Sam Webb—and Cristian Dixon announced he'd be moving to defense. That leaves Michigan with no other experienced WRs unless scattered snaps for Peyton O'Leary count. The only other non-tiny WRs on the roster are the trio of redshirt freshmen Michigan brought in a year ago: Fredrick Moore, Karmello English, and Kendrick Bell. Neither true freshman looks like the kind of guy to defy Freshman Wide Receivers Suck.
I thought this looked like a situation that someone in the portal would say "hey, clear starting spot for defending national champion" and hop aboard but Michigan whiffed. Jahmal Banks committed to Nebraska, Deion Burks to Oklahoma, and Donaven McCulley returned to Indiana. Hope for reinforcements is not entirely lost—Josh Wallace was a crucial post-spring pickup last year—but the vast majority of portal movement has already come and gone.
Michigan can patch some of the holes with targets for Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards.
TIGHT END
[Barron]
Colston Loveland and Max Bredeson return and should be amongst the nation's best in their roles. The only TE with a run-blocking grade better than Bredeson last year was his teammate:
Meanwhile Loveland was already up with Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson when it came to targets last year—mid-60s for all—and it wouldn't surprise to see Loveland hit triple digits unless it is indeed Orji, whereupon nobody is hitting triple digits.
This is Michigan so they're going to want a third guy, preferably a big inline sort. Marlin Klein, Josh Beetham, Deakon Tonielli, and Zack Marshall are options. I don't think it'll be Klein, who seems like a flex sort redundant with Loveland. Your guess is as good as anyone's.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Trente Jones's departure hurts. Other than McCarthy, everyone else who entered the draft was a stone-cold lock to do so from before the season. Many only had decisions to make because of COVID, and had been long-time starters on a national title team. Those guys don't hurt to lose. Jones, too, only had a decision to make because of COVID but I'd hoped that he saw a clear path to a full-time starting job and would want that both for personal satisfaction and his own draft status. Alas. I don't begrudge anyone their choice to leave; personally I wanted Jones in full flourish next year.
Also: now Michigan cannot run out a line of seniors, fifth-year seniors, and sixth-year seniors.
It seems pretty clear that the interior line will be Gio El-Hadi, Greg Crippen, and Northwestern transfer Josh Priebe. El-Hadi played about a third of the season in 2022 and was pretty good until he ran up against Jer'Zhan Newton; two years on he's a good bet to be a plug-and-play replacement for Trevor Keegan. Crippen sucked it up as Michigan imported back-to-back Rimington candidates in front of him but is clearly the heir apparent. You can read about Priebe in his hello post; he was third-team All Big Ten a year ago, perhaps a bit dubiously.
Tackle is slightly murkier but not a whole lot more. Myles Hinton does return for a sixth year after a season flashing a significant amount of promise, and a significant amount of falling over. He'd dropped to tackle #4 by the end of the season after Michigan clearly wanted him to seize the left tackle job early; he's one of the biggest swing guys on the team because he has massive potential.
The other tackle will probably be Jeff Persi or Andrew Gentry. Like El-Hadi, Persi played in 2022, getting a start against Rutgers. He was just a redshirt freshman then and was middling. Gentry has the recruiting pedigree and Michigan started talking about him like he was the next great tackle last offseason, checking one of our boxes: are they talking about you when they don't need to talk about you? My money is on Gentry.
A line of Hinton/El-Hadi/Crippen/Priebe/Gentry is all but a 100% reset but also looks like it could be one of those Alvarez Wisconsin era reboots where the guys have different names on their backs but are still monsters.
UPSHOT
not just a funny name anymore [Bryan Fuller]
I have to admit this line of thought intrigues me:
Naming my dream: Michigan runs the go-go with Orji, Edwards, and Mullings
— Prettyman (@HoracePrettyman) January 15, 2024
You may remember the go-go from our UNLV preview:
[Brennan Marion] describes his offense like so:
“People say your offense is a spread offense,” Marion said. “It’s not even close to the spread in my mind. It’s a pro-style, triple-option offense. That’s what we’re trying to do. A true West Coast passing game, a triple-option run game and the up-tempo principles of Coach Malzahn.”
Sounds like a huge pain in the ass. I would not be surprised for Michigan to eat some garbage in this game. A more detailed breakdown of the offense can be found in Alex's post; for purposes of this section it's enough to know that the double-RB setup shown above is UNLV's base set and that they will go wildly unbalanced in an attempt to trip up your alignment rules, then throw in a blizzard of end-arounds, fake end-arounds, misdirections on top of that, and tempo. It kind of reminds me of the Mad Magicians. Personnel is almost beside the point, and we know very little about it anyway since we've got one game against Bryant to go on.
Michigan did not eat any garbage in that game because UNLV, like most of Michigan's nonconference opponents, just wanted to get out of there with a check and their playbook unrevealed. UNLV turned it on afterwards, spurring a remarkable turnaround. UNLV finished the 2022 season 96th in offensive SP+. Last year they were 32nd. Caveat: a large chunk of this is getting great play from freshman QB Jayden Maiava, who immediately decamped for Georgia.
Anyway: I do not think Michigan is going to import Marion and put two guys in the backfield on every play. I do think that the personnel on this offense lends itself to something like it. Default 21 personnel with Edwards and Mullings on the field together. Loveland alternates between inline and flanker. Morris is the only WR to see 80%+ of the snaps. Semaj Morgan runs so many jet and orbit motions that he wears ruts in the turf. Orji is a constant threat to keep it, there are perimeter run threats on every play, etc. I
If Orji doesn't work out Michigan is going to be operating with a pocket passer, a pretty good ground game, and what looks like very little vertical game-breaking ability, with apology to Tyler Morris's touchdown against Alabama. That feels like it has a hard ceiling, and rolling with What If Orji may not. I can't construct a mental model of a Denegal/Warren/Davis offense throwing to Tyler Morris and Question Mark that feels like hell on defenses. Orji running bash counter with Edwards the back does sound like hell.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:27 PM ^
That picture of Sherrone and his daughter may be my favorite photo ever on this site.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:51 PM ^
Because he looks like the knight from Monty Python who got his legs chopped off?
January 19th, 2024 at 3:21 PM ^
Crap, he kinda does...
January 19th, 2024 at 4:08 PM ^
Merely a flesh wound.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:43 PM ^
Yeah, that picture is sweet.
All season long, it's been a bonus getting to know the players as people, thanks to interviews and their own videos.
It's nice to get a sense of that with coaches too.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:41 PM ^
My heart stopped for a minute when all I saw was the photo. Thought we were getting a Hello Head Coach Moore post due to a late breaking Harbaugh decision.
As a father to daughters, I agree, that's a special photo.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:37 PM ^
If he ends up needing to apply for a position at UM later this month, I think his entire application file should be a .png of this photo. What more is needed?
January 20th, 2024 at 11:12 AM ^
Yeah. That is a classic for the ages.
Is she the person who'll for sure be around next season? I'll take it.
the nice thing to know is the Blog's amazing institutional memory / archive. You know this pic will re-appear twenty years from now when she joins the coaching staff.
bed of roses, indeed <3
January 19th, 2024 at 2:30 PM ^
The Mullings/Edwards dual backfield where Kalel occasionally gets the ball, and occasionally commits linebacker homicide is something that I would like to see quite often.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:56 PM ^
If Kalel wants to blow up a linebacker or safety on every play, that would also be OK.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:10 PM ^
We have an accord.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:59 PM ^
Totally agree. Then add in Mullings and Edwards as receiving options. LB'er hell.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:07 PM ^
mullings might be the most intriguing player going into next year. he had an impressive season, given limited reps. hes a legit athlete who runs hard, made a few catches, dished out numerous brutal blocks, etc. he appears to have nice instincts as a runner and carries 240 lbs well which is no fun to tackle. just a really good all around football player. mullings stayed as a role player, became a champion - nows the time for a much larger role.
bredeson is easily the rosters most underrated player (though likely not for many readers here) - curious to see if they expand his role at all, maybe add some touches next year. hes no gamebreaker but 2-3 targets/game could help a shaky QB
January 19th, 2024 at 6:04 PM ^
I can definitely see Kalel reprising DeVeon Smith's role of wearing DBs like a cape as he rumbles through the defense like Godzilla laying waste to a small fishing village.
January 20th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
Would love to see 2 passes per game to each of Mullings and Bredeson!
January 19th, 2024 at 2:36 PM ^
If Tuttle manages to get another year I imagine he factors in at QB. Also I think there is a chance that Prieskorn could have a Loveland-type impact as a freshman.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^
Idk, man. When there are omissions in pieces like this it usually means something. I wouldn't count on Tuttle being in the mix.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:59 PM ^
Was looking for someone to mention Prieskorn because I was wondering why he wasnt in there. Aren't people hyped about this guy? If you have a lack of WR talent and a freshman TE you think is the Next Dude, that feels like a guy getting a few targets a game in the Funchess role
January 19th, 2024 at 2:41 PM ^
I'm ga ga for the go-go. Let's do it and be a running mashing machine!
January 19th, 2024 at 2:51 PM ^
Sherrone Moore at the thought of more SMASH
January 19th, 2024 at 2:42 PM ^
"But they'd probably just plug in Sherrone Moore, avoid significant portal departures, and be more or less the same minus a predilection for weird press conferences."
There's a long quote on a t-shirt in the store that leaves open the possibility of "a predilection for weird press conferences" being a sustained part of the culture even if Harbaugh leaves.
January 20th, 2024 at 11:15 AM ^
or stays
January 19th, 2024 at 2:45 PM ^
Key Matchup: Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh Lizard Brain
How flexible is Michigan re: creating an offense around the players we have? History isn’t especially kind to our coach(es) here, but a good OL can create a lot of possibilities. We don’t know whether we have a good OL.
January 19th, 2024 at 6:42 PM ^
This right here.
I just dont see this staff drastically changing its system over one offseason. They'll give Orji his packages and go with the better thrower that fits their system closest as the starter.
January 20th, 2024 at 6:39 PM ^
Keep in mind, Harbaugh was the one having great success in the NFL with Kapernik...
January 19th, 2024 at 2:45 PM ^
Mullings = Jerome Bettis
Give that man the rock.
I still love Donovan Edwards
January 19th, 2024 at 2:55 PM ^
I'd love Edwards as a WR who occasionally motions into the backfield and when he does it's not an idle threat that the ball may end up in the WR hands.
January 19th, 2024 at 6:15 PM ^
Don can run, nice arm. Hell go go with him at QB. Dual threat, knows the system. I thought Mikey going D was out of the box. Go go this spring and see what ya got, Orji n Mullings RB's. Hike it to Orji sometimes, Day would shit in his pants covering these trio.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:55 PM ^
I'm sticking with Poor Man's Derrick Henry, but the prescription is the same.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:35 PM ^
There were a few Mullings plays this year where he popped off the TV screen and I said "who is that?" Sainristil did the same thing two years ago on defense. Loveland did it at tight end. Some players you can just tell that they've got something special. It isn't even on the biggest plays. For Mullings it was on a couple of 7 or 8 yard runs that should have been 1-2 yard runs.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:30 PM ^
Blake is Blake and I love Blake and Blake took us home.
But there were a couple games this year where I was asking myself if we shouldn't just keep giving Mullings the ball. The man is impossible to tackle.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:00 PM ^
He's got really nice feet and good patience too. Limited snaps, so we'll see what he and Hall can do when getting 15 carries a game. I'd love to see them provide the downhill running we had with Haskins, but neither of them run with Haskins violence.
January 20th, 2024 at 6:40 PM ^
He's going to end up having the best nfl career of all of them as he'll enter the league with zero wear and tear on his body, lol.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:55 PM ^
Not for nothing, but Notre Dame typically used Bettis in a 2 back backfield with one of the Brooks brothers during his career (first Tony, then Reggie). Michigan could get very creative using a lot of Mullings/Dono on the field at the same time.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:59 PM ^
Mullings needs a cool nickname as good as The Bus. E
January 19th, 2024 at 8:49 PM ^
Can players inherit nicknames like they inherit jerseys? Michigan needs more Hammering Panda.
January 19th, 2024 at 9:41 PM ^
Call him Superman. It’s already his name
January 19th, 2024 at 2:48 PM ^
What about Raheem Anderson on the interior OL? He's been around a long time, couldn't he take a G spot if Crippen is the C?
January 19th, 2024 at 2:51 PM ^
I think so. My guess is he will battle at center, then start at guard.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:01 PM ^
I would guess that Anderson has the higher ceiling and that, as a fan, we should root for him to beat out the more veteran player. He absolutley will be given an opportunity to earn a starting spot on the interior.
January 19th, 2024 at 8:49 PM ^
Plus one for the use of G spot.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:53 PM ^
The phrase, "higgeldy-piggeldy", is one of my fave pick-ups from watching Bluey episodes. Bingo is the best!
January 20th, 2024 at 8:05 AM ^
Get out of here with your nonsense, Bugalugs
January 19th, 2024 at 2:57 PM ^
Loveland, Morris, Morgan is the new Gronk, Edelman, Amendola.
Gimme Tuttle as Brady.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:57 PM ^
I am personally absolutely fascinated by the idea of an Orji-led exotic run-focused offense. Lean into your identity and what your personnel allows you to be good at. It feels like Michigan's best chance for sustained success in an era where they aren't going to be out recruiting the OSU and Georgia's of the world is to embrace being different. And be damn good at being different.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
Yes. Harbaugh is a mixed bag, at least. Presented with this group of personnel, prior regimes would've played it safe with a "game manager" and topped out at 9-3 / 8-4. (Admittedly, those would've been welcome records for the period between 2008 and 2014.)
January 19th, 2024 at 4:11 PM ^
You can't win at a high level without having any passing threat. The Penn State game was an exception to the rule -- and worked partly because JJ's throwing ability kept the defense honest. We will land a senior transfer.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:03 PM ^
I agree...but we really don't know whether or not Orji can provide a passing threat or not. He isn't going to be a Joe Burrow, but can he be a Jalen Milroe who can hit some deep shots and some PAPs? Maybe!
January 19th, 2024 at 8:46 PM ^
Why would we think a senior transfer QB, if we land one, will be better than the options above? They will be handicapped by coming in post-spring and would largely be limited by having Loveland as the only high-level target.
I would love to think Edwards would get more targets, but they'll be simple routes from the backfield if he does, not a full WR route tree. Freshman WR suck because they don't know how to use their skills in the offense; Edwards hasn't practiced as WR or trained for this, and I don't see him mastering that in an offseason when the coaching staff is currently in a holding pattern.
-----
I think our passing offense will look more like the Denard offense than Washington's. I think we're going to run a lot, and then throw RPOs, curl-flat, play-action-to-post, RB/TE leaking out, etc. We're going to have build our passing offense on confusing the defenders assignments, making them yo-yo between run responsibilities and figuring out whether Loveland running past them means arc read or QB-Oh-Noes.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:13 PM ^
Drew Aller was horrible as well.
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