in re: is GRIII on a tear
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- Caris Levert is #48 in 2015.
- Glenn Robinson is #36 in 2014
- Mitch McGary is #30 in 2014
- Nik Stauskas is #16 in 2014
- Derrick Walton is the #57 freshman
- Zak Irvin is the #29 freshman
- Kenpom: Utah 33, Arkansas 55
- Sagarin : Utah 33, Arkansas 40
- Massey: Utah 48, Arkansas 59
- RPI: Arkansas 62, Utah 83
- Bracket Madness
- Patrick Stevens/USA Today
- Jeff Borzello/Busting the Bracket
- Wisconsin 3:1
- Michigan 3:1
- Michigan State 4.5:1
- Ohio State 6.5:1
- Iowa 10:1
- Nebraska 20:1
- Minnesota 50:1
- Illinois 75:1
- Indiana 75:1
- Penn State 250:1
- Purdue 600:1
- Northwestern 1500:1
- Michigan St. 3 (Georgetown, Nebraska, Illinois)
- Cincinnati 2 (Xavier, SMU)
- San Diego St. 1 (Wyoming)
- Iowa St. 2 (West Va., K-State)
- Creighton 5 (everyone they lost to)
- Duke 3 (Notre Dame, Clemson, Wake)
- Syracuse (B.C., Ga Tech)
- Michigan 2 (Charlotte, Indiana)
- Virginia 2 (Green Bay, Tennessee)
- Wisconsin 3 (Indiana, Minnesota, NW)
- Kansas 4 (Colorado, OK St, K-State, W VA)
- Arizona 2 (Cal, Arizona St.)
- Japan 4:2 New Zealand
- Iran 1:2 Guinea
- Russia 2:0 Armenia
- Greece 0:2 South Korea
- South Africa 0:5 Brazil
- Algeria 2:0 Slovenia
- Montenegro 1:0 Ghana
|11 hours 9 min ago||Not really.||
He goes back to his day job at St. Joe's, where he's Assistant VP for Marketing Communications and teaches a course in Fundamentals of Bracketology.
He's probably pretty good at his job--he's done well with his own brand, that's for sure.
|11 hours 14 min ago||I know that's true to some||
I know that's true to some extent, but it's also true that the bracketology community does a pretty good job of predicting who's going to get in and in doing so they seem to primarily use metrics that don't include scores and other performance stuff. That seems to me to hint that the committee is doing the same, that they may realize the RPI-based metrics aren't all that good but they tend to use them anyway until they get down to those last few teams.
|11 hours 17 min ago||Sagarin and Massey do two||
Sagarin and Massey do two football ratings, one without margin of victory that they provide to the BCS, a second that includes margin.
In both cases the version that includes margin is better for predictive purposes. By a lot. They've both stated quite clearly that the only reason they bother with the scoreless version is that the BCS asks for it.
|12 hours 49 min ago||NBA picks||
"this year's team would still have Burke and Hardaway Jr, and ...if you brought back McGary from his injury. Now you're talking about probably 5 NBA picks which rivals the 89 team."
That's five or six picks on the current roster without Burke and Hardaway. Bring them back and you possibly have eight.
|13 hours 50 min ago||That's pretty funny, now that I've thoght about it a bit.||
Non-conference SOS was introduced into the conversation to defend lesser-conference teams like Gonzaga against the charge that they hadn't played anybody. They don't have any choice about who they play in conference, after all, so why not give them credit for scheduling good teams when they have the chance?
It's now being used as a defense of an SEC team.
And rightfully so. They don't have any choice but to play a terrible conference schedule.
|14 hours 6 min ago||True, of course. If we want||
True, of course.
If we want to get to that level of detail, Arkansas was down 20 to Alabama with six minutes to go in the first half and never got closer than 18 thereafter. They were never close enough to start fouling late against A&M, either. LSU turned an 11-point game into a 14-point game with late free throws.
In general I think this sort of thing tends to even out over the course of a season and it's not a big effect on the computers to begin with. Hopefully Burgers is right and the committee really does look at those details when they're sitting.
|14 hours 24 min ago||Didn't want to get bogged down by details, but...||
They've each won four games against teams in contention:
Utah beat UCLA by 5, Arizona St. by 23, Colorado by 9 and Cal by 4.
Arkansas beat Kentucky twice, both times in OT, and beat Minnesota by 14 and SMU by 11.
That's consistent across the ranking matrix. Systems that take scores into account prefer Utah; systems like RPI that ignore scores altogether prefer Arkansas. The bracketologists unanimously side with the systems like RPI.
I'm not so much arguing that Utah is better (I think they are, to be honest, but it's not what I'm arguing here) as: why are they incomparably worse? The only answers I can come up with inolve RPI and its clones.
|14 hours 46 min ago||Aren't you assuming...||
...that none of those teams ever beat themselves?
|16 hours 16 min ago||Green Bay will not be winning their conference.||
They lost to Milwaukee this weekend. They're 62 at Sagarin, 61 an kenpom, they're NIT bound.
And he doesn't have Southern Miss because Louisiana Tech is the #1 seed in that tournament and his rule is to use the highest remaining seed for the autobid.
I don't like Arkansas either--I actually think Utah is better, to name one among many.
|16 hours 32 min ago||Jay Bilas has been an||
Jay Bilas has been an eloquent voice of reason on the subject:
Either coaches are getting a competitive advantage with this stuff, or they aren't.
If they are, we should stop it because it's an unfair competitive advantage.
If they aren't, we should stop it because it's pointless and it looks bad.
|17 hours 19 min ago||Obligatory Paymon post...||
Paymon rankings of 67 bracketologists with three or more years under their belts:
35. Joe Lunardi
38. Jerry Palm
58. Bleacher Report
With all their advantages of committee access, Lunardi and Palm are still below average. Lunardi has never beaten Lobofan, in five years.
|17 hours 37 min ago||Massey odds||
Massey's posted probabilities for the tournament here:
As always, the odds are way too long at the long end because he's assuming independent probabilities for each game, ignoring possible correlations caused by injuries and the like. It also tacitly assumes that teams will perform like they did in the regular season, ignoring the differences in motivation and possibly coaching approach between teams that are already in the NCAA and teams that aren't.
Anyway, the odds:
Like I said, the method jumps the shark at the long end. To give Masey credit he doesn't pretend otherwise.
|1 day 7 hours ago||I defintely agree about the additional stress.||
But it never occurred to me that it might be a health issue. It seems to me there's a simpler explanation.
|1 day 7 hours ago||14 vs 15, 6 vs 7||
Since the tournament went to 64/68:
14-seeds have made the round of 32 twice as often as 15-seeds.
6-seeds have made the round of 16 slightly less than twice as often as 7-seeds.
|1 day 7 hours ago||Something else that I'm sure was on their minds||
though I've never heard them admit it: knocking two of the 16-seeds out in a preliminary round reduces by two the number of ridiculous blowouts we have to watch on Thursday and Friday. If you can't beat Florida A&M you probably weren't going to give Villanova or Arizona much of a game.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Half his team was on the bench the whole game.||
Something about the rules only allowing five on the floor at a time, the way I heard it.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Well if that's what all the fuss is over...||
...maybe they should sign an Adidas contract.
|1 day 8 hours ago||What's supposed to happen...||
...the last four at-large teams play play-in games, the weakest four AQs play play-in games.
The justification was that (1) the committee recognizes that those last few at-large selections are a bit of a coin flip--this lets the coin flip get decided on the court instead of the committee room, and (2) it gives the perennial 16-seeds, like whoever wins the SWAC, a chance to win a game in the tournament every once in a while.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Note that I was using Massey||
Note that I was using Massey to get my seeds. (They were also the last of the twos, which you can't tell from my grid.)
The computers love Louisville, which to me means there's at least some argument that they have a deserving resume. They're #8 at Massey (#5 in Power, which is a better predictor); they're #2 at Sagarin (and also #2 in Predictor); they're #2 at kenpom.
They're lower at Massey because that's the system that most heavily downgrades blowouts. As far as he's concerned, once you've won by enough that you've established clear dominance it doesn't matter any more. But Louisville absolutely slaughtered a couple of likely tournament teams--by 33 over UConn yesterday, by 31 over Southern Miss. They're SMU's only home loss (and it was by double digits), they're Cincinnati's only home loss.\
And unlike most of the schools they're lined up against on those seeds, they have no bad losses. @ Kentucky (33 at Massey) is the worst. Schools ahead of them on the matrix with worse losses:
That's everyone but Wichita, Florida and Villanova.
|1 day 8 hours ago||"Half my team was on the||
"Half my team was on the bench half the time."
That'll happen, if you have ten or more players on your team.
|1 day 10 hours ago||"Also one of the play in||
"Also one of the play in games is 11 seed, not both 12."
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but I think there's no rule about that. If possible the last four at-large teams are placed in play-in games--depending on where the conference champions end up seeded those games could be 11s or 12s.
|4 days 8 hours ago||it's not even just homogenization across schools||
it's homogenization across continents and across sports. I can't find a picture that really captures how ugly these were, and for the 80% of you that don't like soccer this won't mean anything (suffice to say that they ordinarily wear red and this shade of neon is not a national color), but Spain came out in these for their friendly yesterday and my eyes said ohmygodbaylor that must be Adidas.
Many of the usual Adidas trademarks are here--two different shades of yellow-green, one more green and one more yellow. (No, three shades, because the socks didn't match either one.) Black shirts--remember Adidas outfitting schools in monochrome charcoal or black last year? (Unlike the NCAA, FIFA doesn't allow numbers the same color as the uniforms.) The only thing missing was the uniforms didn't tear every time somebody grabbed a fistful.
Which means they worked on me, I got the intended brand message, and that's very sad.
|5 days 4 hours ago||Marty Bodnar. Would have||
Would have liked to say Gary Grant but I think every team he ever played on in his life was easy to watch, at least until he got to the Clippers. Those Canton McKinley teams were something else.
|5 days 8 hours ago||Beilein during the Fab Five era||
In 1990-1991 his LeMoyne team made 198 threes on the season to their opponents' 136; in 1991-1992 it was 184-133.
That was in about 30 games each year, so it's only 20-25% fewer than Michigan's hit this year. He integrated the three into his offense pretty early.
|5 days 13 hours ago||Old. Don't care. Will watch||
Old. Don't care. Will watch because it's basketball.
|5 days 15 hours ago||I think they may have||
I think they may have improved their chances of not starting when it matters.
And I have no problem with that at all--these friendlies are for experimentation, especially the early ones. it's much more important to find out what works and what doesn't, than it is to win.
|5 days 15 hours ago||Other friendlies today involving WC qualifiers:||
Lots of others later; those are the finals so far.
|5 days 15 hours ago||ESPN2, kickoff at 2 I||
ESPN2, kickoff at 2 I believe.
Italy v. Spain is on ESPN2 following. Full slate of international friendlies today.
|6 days 13 hours ago||Never said he was a bad guy.||
But that he was cocky there can be no doubt.
|6 days 18 hours ago||Just looked it up||
eFG of 87%, maybe the best 50+ game ever?