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|3 days 14 hours ago||the big board||
|3 days 18 hours ago||Manfred Mann's Earth Band||
|6 days 39 min ago||Nobody.||
It's a "team field goal," sort of like the team rebound you get when the ball goes out of bounds.
Saw this happen in a high school game a year ago. Kid had just subbed in during a timeout, ball was out of bounds under the basket. The other team's basket, but they were running a full court press and I guess he got confused about which end they were at. He stole the inbounds pass right under the hoop and had slammed it home before anyone had a chance to call him off. A pretty hellacious dunk for a 9th-grader, truth be told, except....
|2 weeks 2 days ago||I think it's pretty clear...||
...that everyone involved here behaved precisely the way they were expected to: Jones, the chief, the police liaison. Maybe at some point it will be necessary to fire someone to preserve the quaint notion that a sexual assault investigation is more important than the health of the local football program, but that'll just be somebody higher up covering his ass.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||That's a ridiculous legal argument.||
Collusion with a police officer does not constitute "entrapment." This isn't a one-off act by the police chief, it's a long-standing arrangement. We don't know how this became policy, but it's a stretch to think it happened without any input at all from the university. There's a police "liaison to the football team" and according to the police chief the courtesy extends to other sports as well.
I'd have trouble keeping a straight face if I were on a jury listening to a defense attorney try to claim that all of this was done as a means of someday entrapping a football coach into obstructing an investigation.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Almost.||
The Tallahassee Athletic Director is now working in Knoxville.
Just a coincidence though.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||The other difference...||
...is between sexual assault and the kind of misdemeanor that might get you 30 days and a summer of stair running.
And between an athletic department that's being sued over its past handling of alleged sex crimes and Bo-era Michigan football.
That the local police chief has the football coach's phone number isn't that much of a surprise, and if he wants to use it to give a heads up after a minor altercation in a bar or something, so be it. That he chose to use it now, for this, is a different kettle of fish.
|2 weeks 6 days ago||Transfer to a B1G school?||
Why wouldn't he transfer to Vanderbilt, if offered? And why wouldn't they offer?
I don't think anyone else is even in play here.
|4 weeks 5 days ago||Agreed, but the development||
Agreed, but the development problems start long before anyone gets to MLS.
I think one of the problems with soccer in the US is the free substitution rules at lower levels. The high school and youth soccer I see here is manic compared to what I remember in Europe. Lots of high pressure, maximum workrate all the time, everybody running their legs off because they know they're going to get subbed off before they tire. If you know you're going to be out there for the whole 90 you, and your coaches, are forced to think of a different way to play. And I think that different way to play might better develop tactical sensibilities. Technique too, maybe.
|5 weeks 6 days ago||I'm a bit sorry ND went zone...||
...I was enjoying SFA's man offense. They run our sets better than we do.
Not as efficiently, maybe, because they miss too many open shots. But they sure run them well.
|6 weeks 6 days ago||I think maybe what's going on here...||
...is that the last game ends so late that the committee ignores it and works up a bracket they can live with either way. They don't have time in that last half hour to scramble it, and they have probably enough trouble working up a consensus for the one bracket they have that they don't have time to work up an alternate in advance.
When the two teams are close in seed they can just flip them, but that wouldn't work today because Purdue was too far down in the seeding. So with MSU on the 1/2 edge, and knowing they won't be able to justify a one-seed if they lose, they just slot them at a 2 but give them a favorable site to make up for it.
|6 weeks 6 days ago||Kenpom and Massey agree...||
...Michigan by 1/2 point.
I'd check Sagarin but USA Today's website is down.
|6 weeks 6 days ago||Temple's #86 at kenpom.||
Is that the worst ever for an at-large team? There's 31 teams ahead of them that aren't in the field.
|7 weeks 14 min ago||I'm mid-major friendly, as this board goes...||
...but I don't understand this Monmouth thing at all.
I keep flashing back to that Valparaiso/Iona game in November. Valpo crushed them--by the second media timeout I think they had blocked more shots than Iona had points. And Iona had their full squad--Much had gotten his waiver by then. Ordinarily I wouldn't read so much into a single game but that was a complete physical mismatch. Men against boys.
That's the same Iona that won Monmouth's league, beat them twice, once by 16 at Monmouth.
If we're going to give one of those bubble spots to a mid-major I could make a case for Valpo, maybe a better one for Wichita St. Those teams are double-digits better than Monmouth. But Monmouth has a photogenic bench.
|7 weeks 16 min ago||What usually happens with that last game...||
...is the committee ignores it entirely and if they have to they mumble something about "entire body of work" to explain why they didn't bump one team or the other.
By the time that game's over it's too late in the day to recalculate the metrics and redraw the bracket. If the two teams were on adjacent seed lines they might flip them, but that's about it.
|7 weeks 10 hours ago||Butler's #39 at kenpom,||
Butler's #39 at kenpom, Michigan's #55.
That's not an enormous difference, but when you're picking out the top 50 teams it's not insignificant.
And I suspect the reason for the difference is the relative heaviness of the losses. Before Thursday, the only teams that had beaten Butler by 10+ were Xavier, Villanova, and Miami, all three-seeds or better.
Michigan's lost by 10+ to Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, SMU, Purdue, Connecticut and Xavier. Three or four of those will be three-seeds or better; one of them isn't even under consideration (and I'm not talking about SMU, who would probably be about a six if they were eligible).
|7 weeks 10 hours ago||I don't think any sane person||
I don't think any sane person would rely entirely on a metric that would look at that Cincinnati/UConn game from the other day and treat it exactly the same as a 30-point bludgeoning. Whoever wound up winning, those were two virtually equal teams on the day.
The committee talks about the RPI because it doesn't weight margin of victory and they don't want to seem to be encouraging teams to run up the score, and because it's a way of trying to leverage teams into scheduling fewer cupcakes. But there's no evidence they make much use of it as a metric once they get into the room, except as a means of sorting opponents (record vs. RPI top 50 or 100, for example).
If you want to test this, try an experiment tomorrow. Set up a bracket using kenpom or massey--just s-curve your way down the rankings, paying attention to avoiding repeat matchups etc. and making sure you get the autobids in--then set up a second bracket the same way but using RPI. One of them will be a lot closer to the final product, and it won't be the one that uses RPI. (In the past, for what it's worth, the headline Massey and Sagarin rankings have been closer than the more predictively accurate power ranking, or kenpom.)
I think the real problem for Michigan isn't the soft nonconference schedule, it's too many bad losses...not the kind where you lose to a bad team, but the kind where you get beaten badly by a pretty good team and observers are left in no doubt about who was better. I don't think there's another team left on the bubble, or getting an at-large, with as many double-digit losses as Michigan's had.
Looking that up now:
I know there's another side to this, but that's the case for the prosecution. Ten losses, period, has you close to the cut line at best. Ten losses by double digits? It doesn't show up in the RPI but you can bet somebody in the committee room is pointing it out.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||I don't think anyone's||
I don't think anyone's tracked it; 90% might be hyperbole--or it might not. In a typical year there'd be a small fraction with a perfect 68 and then a very large tie at 67. You could easily end up with half the field doing "as well or worse" than 80-90% of the rest.
But the Paymon scores--getting not just the teams but the seeding--are a matter of record. The Bracket Project's been tracking them for a decade.
Lunardi was 15th of 17 in 2007, 12th of 20 in 2008, part of a 5-way tie for 9th out of 28 in 2009, 33rd of 46 in 2010, 35th of 51 in 2011. I'm not sure how his reputation survived it --it was a running gag on blogs, including this one, for years.
He's done better the last few years, especially the last two. He's even done better than the collective consensus the last two years, something he'd never done before. A dozen or so others did it too--maybe part of what's going on is that a lot more people are posting bracket blogs now than before, and the competition is watered down.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||I don't think GW is even||
I don't think GW is even close. They have to win their tournament to get in.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||A performance matched or||
A performance matched or bettered by Patrick Stevens, Andy Bottoms, the anonymous blogger behind 1-3-1 Sports, Dre, Syracusefan7 and some guy named "Beer". And probably a dozen or two others as well but I wasn't paying attention.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||I think the interesting||
I think the interesting question is why, with their contacts, he and Palm are so bad at their jobs. Wouldn't you think they'd be able to outperform random Joes on the internet who don't have committee members on their speed dial?
One theory I've been kicking around for a while is that the RPI is really a smokescreen. The committee pretends to take it seriously as a metric because they want to pretend they don't care about margin of victory. Then they get behind closed doors, untie their hands, and start using better tools.
But Lunardi and Palm, with their committee connections, take it seriously. It's interesting to me that the improvement in Lunardi's performance coincided with ESPN's unveiling of their own, apparently better, metric, while Palm's still as bad as ever.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||As is everyone else that bothers to try.||
What he does is not very hard and he's not particularly good at it. ESPN will proudly announce that Joe "correctly picked 65 teams out of the 68-team field" but never acknowledge that 90% of the blogging world did as well or better.
The funny thing is that he's actually had a couple of good years, but since they set the bar so low for him they can't acknowledge that either. They have to pretend he's the only guy out there or the schtick is up. Same goes for Jerry Palm.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||bracketmatrix.com's rankings of bracket predictors||
Among people with three or more years of predictions on record, Lunardi ranks #36. He's had two straight good years to get that high--he was solidly in the bottom quarter of the rankings before.
Among people you've heard of, Lunardi's probably as good as any. But there are a few dozen people on the internet who have been consistently better.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||A lot of the committee's||
A lot of the committee's description of their own work is smoke-blowing, but one thing they say that I think is borne out in the results is that they do not think this way. There's no "this is a 7-bid league" going on--you get what you get on each team's merits. OSU in wouldn't bump Michigan out unless they were already last on the bubble.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||St. Mary's is 33 at||
St. Mary's is 33 at kenpom--if anything, the 10 or 11 seed they're liable to get is too low.
Monmouth is the Lunardi pick I can't fathom. There's nothing there but Sportscenter hype and one good win four months ago.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||Most brackets haven't been updated.||
And I'm pretty sure UConn's in regardless. Both these teams are in--it'd be better if one of them won that tournament, because they might the only teams that would still be in if they lost.
|8 weeks 15 hours ago||why is this a surprise?||
He's been running the swing offense since his Platteville days.
|8 weeks 3 days ago||The question's still open how||
The question's still open how much of that is formation and how much of it is rollout punting. Both changes happened at the same time and there's no way, from the data published so far, to know how much of the effect resulted from each.
It ought to be possible to break it down by formation and punt-style, or at least sort the data into categories based on which formation each team generally used and whether they had an Aussie punter, but I don't think anyone's ever done it.
It'd be nice to see punt blocks sorted this way too. The new styles have been around long enough that we might have good statistics by now.
|8 weeks 5 days ago||A lot of fans think that way||
A lot of fans think that way but most athletic directors are smarter than this. Ours sure as hell is.
Letting coaches set their own bar, effectively rewarding failure and punishing success, is how you end up being Rutgers.
|8 weeks 5 days ago||The act, or the pictures?||
Maybe I'm naive--I sure as hell don't get out much any more--but this is what I think did not happen here...
"Sweetie, you mind if I put that video up on twitter?"
"No, of course I don't mind. Why don't you put it up on facebook too? I don't want my family to miss it...."