Mock drafts are pretty bad, especially early ones... Not seeing how JTT is a first round player, unless you just look at who the top rated players were coming out of high school and project them to be top picks. Not a bad player, but he's what, Chris Wormley (3rd round pick) in the NFL? Not a game breaker at pass rusher. Sawyer improved his stock too in the back half of the season but still probably day 2. Henderson is a weird one because he's so injury prone. You'd think he'd want to minimize risk.
This is well said. The powers that be are obviously driven by money but an expanded playoff works better with 8 smaller conferences playing a round robin schedule than it does with 4 enormous conferences + best two teams conference title games. The showcase format that's been discussed on this blog is also a good solution
Washington losing would put them in the TCU spot from last year - undefeated team loses rematch in conference title game. They have a great resume and wouldn't fall below an 11-1 team.
Agreed that Georgia would be out, under the Texas beat Bama beat Georgia logic, with Mizzou being their best win otherwise (though the committee has been fattening Tennessee for this moment). Could easily see a situation where Texas winds up screwed though. FSU probably slots in 4 regardless because of the QB situation, fair or not.
He recruited some really phenomenal players to Michigan. On top of everything you said, if you love Jake Butt, Jabrill, Jourdan Lewis, Taco, Wormley, Darboh, Chesson, etc, thank Brady!
So funny that this guy was grinding MGoBlog during some of the darkest days of the football program. That confirmation is just about all I need that all of this is self-motivated and self-funded.
Also, I know you guys like to anoint that 2015 team, like the 2019 team, as the one that should have won it all, but that Ed Warriner offense was a mess. One score wins against NIU and IU did not inspire a ton of confidence. But you know that already.
I think Bill C is very good for macro level, team-based analysis, because he's got a great model. He isn't so good at looking beyond the stat sheet to identify who the impact players are because he's not watching Michigan as closely as Brian, Seth, et al are. We all know Harrell isn't an elite edge rusher but his stats so far obfuscate that (he is a great rush defender, though). Bill C just has too many teams to opine on for in-depth micro analysis to be cogent. Mid-season MVP is pretty clearly JJ
I've made this point on the board before but the defense returns much more than it's given credit for and a lot of this no returning talent thing boils down to JJ, Corum, RW/CJ, and (decreasingly likely) Edwards
It really is remarkable how bad Indiana is. Watching their game vs. Akron, it looks like they are playing in slow motion. Should be a 42-0 snoozer with minimal effort.
Something I simply don't understand from a football perspective is the complete disregard for the benefit of winning your conference on playoff seeding. USC (assuming they could win the Pac 12) would be much better off getting a top 4 seed and bye than getting an at-large as, let's say, a third place Big Ten team. Same logic goes for Texas, whose chances of winning the Big 12>>>chances of winning the SEC.
Doubt anyone will see this comment but looking back on these predictions (and even the opportunities to look stupid get at least 1.5/3) - incredibly accurate. This website is the best
Do you not understand how sports work? Literally everything comes down to a handful of plays. One pitch hit for a home run. One tackle not made. One shot rims out. This is what sports is. At a certain point, better or worse is splitting hairs - it's plays made or not made. The "better" team makes the plays.
"Why now" is likely because he's behind other (younger) players on the depth chart after spring. It is what it is. The TD against OSU is part of Michigan glory forever. Always liked watching him with the ball in his hands but he never seemed to be a natural pass catcher and struggled to stay on his feet (no disrespect and wishing him the best). Wonder who will return punts - Cabana?
I'd be a fan of this system if each Tier 1 league had a regionally compatible Tier 2. More fun to have the Fleck WMU or Jordan Lynch NIU teams in the Big Ten than 2016 Rutgers or 2012 Illinois
Our two best offensive players are our running backs. The strength of the offense is the run game. When we needed to open it up last year, we did, to great success, save for the two pick sixes. We don't need to take touches away from Edwards and Corum to prove some inane point.
You and Brian both seem in agreement on Hartline as playcaller but I'm in a different camp. It remains to be seen how much difference Hartline will make, but I think Day is an exceptionally poor playcaller. He doesn't seem to have a great feel for play sequencing, and he gets in pass-happy and run-happy moods that I think simplify things for defensive coordinators.
A couple examples of this are the first second half drive of the 2021 game (3 runs in a row) and the run heavy sequence of McGregor's half-suplex tackle and then the shotgun toss that got stretched out to the sideline around midfield.
We'll see, I guess, as Hartline will be a first time playcaller as well. But I do think Day struggled.
it's insane how bad this gear is. either pick between 'Michigan' in goofy type font or have the OSU logo on it. not knocking you, but the gear itself is just not covetable
Card (and Ewers) have both been pretty underwhelming. Sark's fault? Probably at least somewhat. Even Ewers might be gone if Arch takes his job. Will be interesting to see guys in different situations to assess blame for Texas's umpteenth underperforming season.
Shout-out to the scout team. There are a ton of guys on this roster that will likely never see the field but show up to help the team get better. This is BY FAR the most consistently prepared Michigan team I've watched since becoming a true fan in the mid 2000s and I'm sure the efforts of those who simulate our opponents in practice are an integral part of that. Special shout-outs to Zach Peterson, Jesse Madden, and Joel Metzger who won scout team POY at the awards banquet this year.
May be wrong, but this type of stuff is not sustainable. I know boosters have deep pockets, but we all know some top recruits just don't pan out, for whatever reason. You invest $5M in even a handful of guys that don't become big time players and it starts to sting, I don't care who you are. Will be interesting to see how this self-regulates in 10 years or so, particularly for programs throwing money at a wall in desperation mode (A&M, Miami, to name a couple)
I think OSU would like Vrabel to be their Harbaugh. All-American, awesome Patriot in the first part of their dynasty, good pro coach (though not as successful as JH so far). It seems silly to imagine him leaving Tennessee for college unless they really start to sputter, though, so his college coaching resume will probably remain incomplete.
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Mock drafts are pretty bad, especially early ones... Not seeing how JTT is a first round player, unless you just look at who the top rated players were coming out of high school and project them to be top picks. Not a bad player, but he's what, Chris Wormley (3rd round pick) in the NFL? Not a game breaker at pass rusher. Sawyer improved his stock too in the back half of the season but still probably day 2. Henderson is a weird one because he's so injury prone. You'd think he'd want to minimize risk.
Wow, I knew he was killing it but underestimated how fast he'd climb. Awesome for him, I stand corrected
John's gonna fire Mike Mac?
Great post and movie
That's not really how Washington plays and we had enough offense to score 60 vs. TCU
I agree that is awful, but it also might have been to see who gets to play undefeated Washington
Why on earth am I seeing these kids, who will go pro in something other than sports, playing press coverage against Gatlin Bair?
This is well said. The powers that be are obviously driven by money but an expanded playoff works better with 8 smaller conferences playing a round robin schedule than it does with 4 enormous conferences + best two teams conference title games. The showcase format that's been discussed on this blog is also a good solution
Washington losing would put them in the TCU spot from last year - undefeated team loses rematch in conference title game. They have a great resume and wouldn't fall below an 11-1 team.
Notably, the "largest crowd watching a football game anywhere in America today" statement is still true as we were away that weekend
Agreed that Georgia would be out, under the Texas beat Bama beat Georgia logic, with Mizzou being their best win otherwise (though the committee has been fattening Tennessee for this moment). Could easily see a situation where Texas winds up screwed though. FSU probably slots in 4 regardless because of the QB situation, fair or not.
get a grip man
Rutgers not bringing in that NYC TV market...
This is interesting but of course buries the lede that neither Harbaugh nor UofM had anything to do with these payments
He recruited some really phenomenal players to Michigan. On top of everything you said, if you love Jake Butt, Jabrill, Jourdan Lewis, Taco, Wormley, Darboh, Chesson, etc, thank Brady!
So funny that this guy was grinding MGoBlog during some of the darkest days of the football program. That confirmation is just about all I need that all of this is self-motivated and self-funded.
Defending champ. But not champion.
Also, I know you guys like to anoint that 2015 team, like the 2019 team, as the one that should have won it all, but that Ed Warriner offense was a mess. One score wins against NIU and IU did not inspire a ton of confidence. But you know that already.
I think Bill C is very good for macro level, team-based analysis, because he's got a great model. He isn't so good at looking beyond the stat sheet to identify who the impact players are because he's not watching Michigan as closely as Brian, Seth, et al are. We all know Harrell isn't an elite edge rusher but his stats so far obfuscate that (he is a great rush defender, though). Bill C just has too many teams to opine on for in-depth micro analysis to be cogent. Mid-season MVP is pretty clearly JJ
I think we miss Ryan Hayes too
I've made this point on the board before but the defense returns much more than it's given credit for and a lot of this no returning talent thing boils down to JJ, Corum, RW/CJ, and (decreasingly likely) Edwards
It really is remarkable how bad Indiana is. Watching their game vs. Akron, it looks like they are playing in slow motion. Should be a 42-0 snoozer with minimal effort.
McFadden/Hillis/Felix Jones trio
Obviously watching a highlight tape is different than "film" but this kid looks like a very fluid athlete with great vision. Welcome!
The headline positions (QB, RB) are easily the biggest question marks, but beyond that depth looks really good?
Still the possibility of JJ back.
RB surely a dropoff from Corum/Edwards but should be able to get something together.
Loveland, Wilson (?), Morris, Clemons, English have the pedigree, looking forward to seeing flashes this fall from the latter three.
OL room stacked, no worries there even with the departures (as long as Sherrone isn't one of them)
Graham, Benny, Moore, McGregor, Grant, Harrell = no worries
Hausmann, Rolder, Colson (Please NIL?) should be great
WJ, Jyaire, Berry, Paige, Walker, Moore (Again, NIL?), Sabb: feeling confident there as well
Something I simply don't understand from a football perspective is the complete disregard for the benefit of winning your conference on playoff seeding. USC (assuming they could win the Pac 12) would be much better off getting a top 4 seed and bye than getting an at-large as, let's say, a third place Big Ten team. Same logic goes for Texas, whose chances of winning the Big 12>>>chances of winning the SEC.
Doubt anyone will see this comment but looking back on these predictions (and even the opportunities to look stupid get at least 1.5/3) - incredibly accurate. This website is the best
Conversely, he was a huge difference maker on a terrible Georgia Tech team
Do you not understand how sports work? Literally everything comes down to a handful of plays. One pitch hit for a home run. One tackle not made. One shot rims out. This is what sports is. At a certain point, better or worse is splitting hairs - it's plays made or not made. The "better" team makes the plays.
"Why now" is likely because he's behind other (younger) players on the depth chart after spring. It is what it is. The TD against OSU is part of Michigan glory forever. Always liked watching him with the ball in his hands but he never seemed to be a natural pass catcher and struggled to stay on his feet (no disrespect and wishing him the best). Wonder who will return punts - Cabana?
The arrogance of the mindset that OSU offer = better player is indicative of why their players have gone soft
NBC has Big Ten night games now. They shot a promo for it. End of story
I'd be a fan of this system if each Tier 1 league had a regionally compatible Tier 2. More fun to have the Fleck WMU or Jordan Lynch NIU teams in the Big Ten than 2016 Rutgers or 2012 Illinois
Dan Dakich got got by a fake Twitter account which he claimed were his sources. A moron and a liar all at once
Clemson hasn't sustained success???? Last 10 seasons
11-3
10-3
10-2
14-1
15-0
12-2
14-1
14-1
10-3
11-2
If your definition of sustained success is 13+ wins every year then it doesn't matter what your recruiting looks like, it just isn't going to happen
Our two best offensive players are our running backs. The strength of the offense is the run game. When we needed to open it up last year, we did, to great success, save for the two pick sixes. We don't need to take touches away from Edwards and Corum to prove some inane point.
doesn't sound like Iowa will even be competitive for the west!
but the '22 class wasn't substandard... it already has several contributors. it seems like they hit it out of the park, rankings be damned
You and Brian both seem in agreement on Hartline as playcaller but I'm in a different camp. It remains to be seen how much difference Hartline will make, but I think Day is an exceptionally poor playcaller. He doesn't seem to have a great feel for play sequencing, and he gets in pass-happy and run-happy moods that I think simplify things for defensive coordinators.
A couple examples of this are the first second half drive of the 2021 game (3 runs in a row) and the run heavy sequence of McGregor's half-suplex tackle and then the shotgun toss that got stretched out to the sideline around midfield.
We'll see, I guess, as Hartline will be a first time playcaller as well. But I do think Day struggled.
the two of you are morons
Sure, but Cole Cabana is gonna be really good
it's insane how bad this gear is. either pick between 'Michigan' in goofy type font or have the OSU logo on it. not knocking you, but the gear itself is just not covetable
Card (and Ewers) have both been pretty underwhelming. Sark's fault? Probably at least somewhat. Even Ewers might be gone if Arch takes his job. Will be interesting to see guys in different situations to assess blame for Texas's umpteenth underperforming season.
Shout-out to the scout team. There are a ton of guys on this roster that will likely never see the field but show up to help the team get better. This is BY FAR the most consistently prepared Michigan team I've watched since becoming a true fan in the mid 2000s and I'm sure the efforts of those who simulate our opponents in practice are an integral part of that. Special shout-outs to Zach Peterson, Jesse Madden, and Joel Metzger who won scout team POY at the awards banquet this year.
May be wrong, but this type of stuff is not sustainable. I know boosters have deep pockets, but we all know some top recruits just don't pan out, for whatever reason. You invest $5M in even a handful of guys that don't become big time players and it starts to sting, I don't care who you are. Will be interesting to see how this self-regulates in 10 years or so, particularly for programs throwing money at a wall in desperation mode (A&M, Miami, to name a couple)
Someday (hopefully soon) people will start to completely discount everything that happened in 2020 in college football.
Assume Maye's not coming because of how deep his Carolina ties run.... how is this going to work with their personnel?
I'll believe Wisconsin can actually recruit receivers when I see it!
I think OSU would like Vrabel to be their Harbaugh. All-American, awesome Patriot in the first part of their dynasty, good pro coach (though not as successful as JH so far). It seems silly to imagine him leaving Tennessee for college unless they really start to sputter, though, so his college coaching resume will probably remain incomplete.
Mockobee runs kinda like Drake Johnson
Not with how we whooped OSU without him, and certainly not to 4, so no difference.
It's Johnson that's more of the problem. "THEY SAID HE COULDN'T THROW THE DEEP BALL!"
My man, YOU have called half a dozen Michigan games this year. Who is "they"???