Member for

14 years 2 months
Points
3.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
So are you absolutely certain she's not just an alum of

St. Louis University of Technology?

See below (sorry, first time poster, long-time idiot)

Duplicate post.

Another look at the next 3 games

I'm a big fan of KenPom, and although I realize the statistics only give a rough approximation, I think their predictive value is a lot better than what you see on most sites. He had us at 51% to beat UConn, for example.

Anyway, according to KenPom, our chances of beating Wisky, Purdue and MSU are 8%, 12% and 36% respectively. If you make the somewhat bogus but necessary assumption that the games are independent events, that makes our chances of winning none of these games (.92)*(.88)*(.64)=.52, roughly. So our chances of winning at least one of the three games are 1-.52=.48, or just a hair less than 1/2. Looking at it another way, our expected number of wins is .08 + .12 + .36 = .56, which takes into account that we may win more than one.

That's not as bad as I would have thought. Given our obvious potential to get hot from 3 on any given night, if we can muster the same defensive effort on the road as we have at home (big if), I actually like our chances of taking 1 of 3. If we play to our potential, 2 of 3 is reasonable.

Should be a fun stretch, given the very low expectations (i.e., nothing to lose, so stay loose) for the next two in particular.

Go Blue!