I'm a big fan of KenPom, and although I realize the statistics only give a rough approximation, I think their predictive value is a lot better than what you see on most sites. He had us at 51% to beat UConn, for example.
Anyway, according to KenPom, our chances of beating Wisky, Purdue and MSU are 8%, 12% and 36% respectively. If you make the somewhat bogus but necessary assumption that the games are independent events, that makes our chances of winning none of these games (.92)*(.88)*(.64)=.52, roughly. So our chances of winning at least one of the three games are 1-.52=.48, or just a hair less than 1/2. Looking at it another way, our expected number of wins is .08 + .12 + .36 = .56, which takes into account that we may win more than one.
That's not as bad as I would have thought. Given our obvious potential to get hot from 3 on any given night, if we can muster the same defensive effort on the road as we have at home (big if), I actually like our chances of taking 1 of 3. If we play to our potential, 2 of 3 is reasonable.
Should be a fun stretch, given the very low expectations (i.e., nothing to lose, so stay loose) for the next two in particular.
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St. Louis University of Technology?
Duplicate post.
I'm a big fan of KenPom, and although I realize the statistics only give a rough approximation, I think their predictive value is a lot better than what you see on most sites. He had us at 51% to beat UConn, for example.
Anyway, according to KenPom, our chances of beating Wisky, Purdue and MSU are 8%, 12% and 36% respectively. If you make the somewhat bogus but necessary assumption that the games are independent events, that makes our chances of winning none of these games (.92)*(.88)*(.64)=.52, roughly. So our chances of winning at least one of the three games are 1-.52=.48, or just a hair less than 1/2. Looking at it another way, our expected number of wins is .08 + .12 + .36 = .56, which takes into account that we may win more than one.
That's not as bad as I would have thought. Given our obvious potential to get hot from 3 on any given night, if we can muster the same defensive effort on the road as we have at home (big if), I actually like our chances of taking 1 of 3. If we play to our potential, 2 of 3 is reasonable.
Should be a fun stretch, given the very low expectations (i.e., nothing to lose, so stay loose) for the next two in particular.
Go Blue!