Asking a slot to block a LB in the box is not good strategy. Reading him is a much better idea, or even the thought that they might read him could be enough to slow him down and allow Corum to get the first down.
I picked 2 plays from key situations that nobody had talked about yet. Obviously the 3 illegal substitution penalties, the inability to handle tempo, the 3rd and 3 deep ball were bad too. Those have been talked about quite a bit already. If we stop MSU on that 3rd and 10 they don’t score the game tying TD. If Cade pulls and converts that 3rd down we keep the ball and are in MSU territory with a chance to score. These are huge coaching failures in key spots in the game.
Michigan can over come plays like this against inferior opponents. When they play a good team though, plays like this to extend/end a drive can be the difference in winning or losing.
You cant read the DE and the safety at the same time. If you think he should have handed it off bc the safety didn't fly up like he did in this video that is fine. But the pull or give read has nothing to do with the DE on this play.
Also I see they have the slot running a slant right at the post on this play too. So it wasn't a wrong route, just a dumb concept. There is zero benefit to having the slot run to the same area as the WR.
Not enough time to get to a second option on an RPO. The DE is unblocked, which means Shea has to get rid of the ball fast, also holding on the the ball allows the O-Line to get downfield which is obviously a penalty.
Dont have time to go through a full progression on an RPO. The unblocked DE forces the QB to get the ball out quick, plus the O-Line will get downfield if Shea holds onto the ball too long. Bell was open, the throw was just made tougher bc of the slant by Nico. Not sure if that was a wrong route or terrible play design.
The DE is not the read, the safety is. Would be impossible for Shea to pull with a crashing DE, run to the left and throw a post back across his body.
Michigan know that Wisconsin will shuffle their end, and this will give time for Shea to throw if its a pull read, and wont immediately blow up the run if it is a give read.
Both WR run 5 step posts, Bell's post is just a little fatter then the other WR's. Also the 4-3 and 3-3-5 don't matter, both teams essentially have 7 men in the box. You can clearly run this play against both. The read is the safety to the single WR side, if he sits or comes up you pull and throw the post. The difference is Michigan clogged up the throwing lane by running Nico on a slant, the other team ran an out and didn't clog up the throwing lane. Also Michigan was 1st and 10, not 3rd and 10
Don't think so. It is an RPO with an unblocked DE. They know they are going to have to get the ball out quick if its a pull read. Just makes no sense to run the slot across the field instead of running him on an out or corner and clearing his defender out of the way.
I have to laugh at you calling him "an idiot who knows nothing about football." I went back and read your recent posts, and the same thing could be said about you! Lol
Is there a video of this anywhere? I've been looking but can't find it... Obviously the picture looks bad, but I would like to see a video before passing any judgement
What makes you think that we have a better chance of hiring a home run next year instead of this year? And if we did keep Hoke on, do we then not fire him next year if we don't have a big time coach lined up? At some point you have just get rid of the guy in charge and figure it out from there. We have reached that point already.
Simulating the cadence is a penalty on the defense. Ive only ever seen it called though when the defense audibly says something. I assume the same rules would apply to clapping ot simulate the snap count. Either way its a bush league move by State.
Norfleets avg yards per return is 23.7. Which is good for 8th all time and only .9 yards less than Breaston's avg. He may not be the homerun threat Breaston was, but he is a quality return man as well.
Talk on the west side of the state is that they want to keep our recruits happy, and may be looking at hiring Don Fellows as OC (Drake Harris' high school coach.) I wouldn't be suprised if there is some truth to this. With Malzahn's success, and also the fact the Fellows was the OC at a juco in California before.
How the hell do we know leadership was poor for Michigan this season? We werent in the locker room, at practice, or on the field for games this year... Now I am not saying that we had good leadership, bc I don't know. But to just say we had poor leadership without any reason is stupid.
I love how everyone is ripping on him for getting in a fight when somebody was giving him shit. How quickly we forget about a month ago, when everyone in the media and NFL was calling Jonathon Martin a pussy for not standing up to Incognito and fighting him.
So if a "spread" QB is all we need, why will it take us 5 years? It doesn't take that long to recruit a QB. Plus since this is about Chip Kelly it seems like Nick Foles is doing just fine in his offense.
Thats not true. The OL is sliding towards the field and will have that side picked up unless NW sends two players to the same gap. Kerridge doesn't even look at that side of the field. He immediately starts running toward the opposite side on the snap.
42 sounds like a lot, but I dont doubt it. When I went through some of the UFR data I found that we had run over 60 different formations on the year. I personally like using a lot of different formations, but not to the extent that we do.
I also hate how we leave Williams 1v1 with a DE in pass pro on that 3rd and 8. Matching up a poor blocking TE with a DE in an obvious passing situation is poor football.
I don't like how our RB's start on the opposite side of where they are going in pass pro. I think it makes it way more difficult for them and I don't see any advantage to it. Watch Kerridge on the sack that Brian linked. He has to come all the way across to check the OLB, once he realizes the OLB isn't coming he has to change direction and try and work back to the other blitzing LB.
I think it would be much easier if he started on the left. Then he could step straight up and check the OLB, and then work to the other LB without having to change direction. I also think it would be easier to see everything that is going on when you aren't sprinting across the formation.
Lets use the QBR metric that takes every aspect into account and see if we conclued DG has regressed. Keep in mind this also takes into account the strength of the opponent.
Looks to me like DG had nobody open on most of those plays (except Butt on #2) and outside of the hitches and outs we completed, nobody was open all day. It seemed like we really struggled to get people open against man to man coverage, especially in the red zone and on the roll outs.
I think we both know that is a dumb argument to make. But back to the orignal point of our chances of scoring a TD from inside the 3 if we get the 1st down. Michigans Red Zone TD % this year is 64%, so its not unreasonable to assume that from the 3 yardline and in, it would be higher than 70%.
As the Mathlete mentioned in this thread Michigan has converted 58% of 3rd/4th and 1 this season. So I am not sure why everyone keeps saying we are horrible at converting short yardage plays. And your "the odds of making the first down were more like slim to none" comment isn't exactly true. In fact we actually ended up converting 2 crucial 4th downs later in the game.
You wouldn't look at the probability of scoring a TD in the redzone, you would look at the probability of scoring a TD from 1st and goal at the 3 yard line or closer. My guess is it's over 70%.
I think the only way you can confirm that it was the wrong call was by saying we had a less than 30% chance of converting the first down. I am sure we could argue all day about whether that was the case or not (jmblue and complete lunacy posted some stats about it up the thread a little.
Forget about the numbers for a second and think about this.
Say we kick a FG and make it. What about our offense had shown you that we are likely to go down and get another score to win that game? Really we are playing for OT if we do that.
Do you really want to take our chances in OT? We had struggled in the redzone all day. Like you said they gave us a gift on the 10 yard line and we couldn't do anything with it, why would we be able to do anything from the 25? I was scared shitless during OT. The longer and longer it went, the more i thought we would lose bc I didnt have any confidence in our offense.
I would much rather put all my marbles on getting 2 yards and scoring a TD, than hoping for OT.
I would love to know how she knew that the WRs did the same thing on every play when you can't even see what the WRs were doing on most plays?
Obviously they were blocking on run plays, but was she able to pick up what route combinations we were running throughout the game? If so I would like to know what they were
1. Points are not guaranteed if you kick a FG (highly likely but not guaranteed)
2. Say we kick a FG and make it. What about our offense had shown you that we are likely to go down and get another score to win that game?
I would much rather put all my marbles on getting 2 yards than kicking a FG, getting a stop and going down again and getting a score.
And i certainly didn't feel confident in our team in OT (based in the PSU game, and how we had played this entire game)
How does quoting someone who knows nothing about football prove that we run the same plays over and over again? Isn't it likely that most plays are going to look similar bc she doesn't know the nuances of football? I am not defending Borges at all, but I am just sick of seeing people say "even my wife..." It's a dumb way to try an prove a point
You're an idiot dude. That timeout saved 35-40 seconds of time.. There were 18 seconds left when we ran that last play. 18 seconds that wouldn't have been there f we saved that timeout.
I actually don't think we run PA off of a stretch look very often. How many naked boots can you remember this year? We ran it once in the Nebraska game, but it was out of shotgun, a formation we haven't run stretch from all season.
I know what you are saying, but with out statistics people are going to selectively remember what they want to remember. It's kinda like remembering all the hot chicks you hooked up with in college, and then going back and looking at their pictures realizing they weren't all hot.
Yes it is. I fixed a few things in the Minnesota game, and added the PSU, IU, and MSU games to it myself. It might not be perfectly accurate, but I think it still does a decent job at showing us some tendancies.
Recent Comments
Asking a slot to block a LB in the box is not good strategy. Reading him is a much better idea, or even the thought that they might read him could be enough to slow him down and allow Corum to get the first down.
I picked 2 plays from key situations that nobody had talked about yet. Obviously the 3 illegal substitution penalties, the inability to handle tempo, the 3rd and 3 deep ball were bad too. Those have been talked about quite a bit already. If we stop MSU on that 3rd and 10 they don’t score the game tying TD. If Cade pulls and converts that 3rd down we keep the ball and are in MSU territory with a chance to score. These are huge coaching failures in key spots in the game.
Michigan can over come plays like this against inferior opponents. When they play a good team though, plays like this to extend/end a drive can be the difference in winning or losing.
You cant read the DE and the safety at the same time. If you think he should have handed it off bc the safety didn't fly up like he did in this video that is fine. But the pull or give read has nothing to do with the DE on this play.
Also I see they have the slot running a slant right at the post on this play too. So it wasn't a wrong route, just a dumb concept. There is zero benefit to having the slot run to the same area as the WR.
Not enough time to get to a second option on an RPO. The DE is unblocked, which means Shea has to get rid of the ball fast, also holding on the the ball allows the O-Line to get downfield which is obviously a penalty.
Dont have time to go through a full progression on an RPO. The unblocked DE forces the QB to get the ball out quick, plus the O-Line will get downfield if Shea holds onto the ball too long. Bell was open, the throw was just made tougher bc of the slant by Nico. Not sure if that was a wrong route or terrible play design.
The DE is not the read, the safety is. Would be impossible for Shea to pull with a crashing DE, run to the left and throw a post back across his body.
Michigan know that Wisconsin will shuffle their end, and this will give time for Shea to throw if its a pull read, and wont immediately blow up the run if it is a give read.
Both WR run 5 step posts, Bell's post is just a little fatter then the other WR's. Also the 4-3 and 3-3-5 don't matter, both teams essentially have 7 men in the box. You can clearly run this play against both. The read is the safety to the single WR side, if he sits or comes up you pull and throw the post. The difference is Michigan clogged up the throwing lane by running Nico on a slant, the other team ran an out and didn't clog up the throwing lane. Also Michigan was 1st and 10, not 3rd and 10
Don't think so. It is an RPO with an unblocked DE. They know they are going to have to get the ball out quick if its a pull read. Just makes no sense to run the slot across the field instead of running him on an out or corner and clearing his defender out of the way.
I have to laugh at you calling him "an idiot who knows nothing about football." I went back and read your recent posts, and the same thing could be said about you! Lol
Don Fellows for head coach!
Its not Drake Harris. He is healthy and has been participating on scout team in practice.
You say Hoke NEVER had a winning record before he got to Michigan, and then you immediately post a winning record that he had. I am confused.
Idk if you have noticed. But Devin is pretty damn good at picking up yards with his legs too.
Simulating the cadence is a penalty on the defense. Ive only ever seen it called though when the defense audibly says something. I assume the same rules would apply to clapping ot simulate the snap count. Either way its a bush league move by State.
Norfleets avg yards per return is 23.7. Which is good for 8th all time and only .9 yards less than Breaston's avg. He may not be the homerun threat Breaston was, but he is a quality return man as well.
You arent a baseball fan if you dont get this reference
Talk on the west side of the state is that they want to keep our recruits happy, and may be looking at hiring Don Fellows as OC (Drake Harris' high school coach.) I wouldn't be suprised if there is some truth to this. With Malzahn's success, and also the fact the Fellows was the OC at a juco in California before.
How the hell do we know leadership was poor for Michigan this season? We werent in the locker room, at practice, or on the field for games this year... Now I am not saying that we had good leadership, bc I don't know. But to just say we had poor leadership without any reason is stupid.
I love how everyone is ripping on him for getting in a fight when somebody was giving him shit. How quickly we forget about a month ago, when everyone in the media and NFL was calling Jonathon Martin a pussy for not standing up to Incognito and fighting him.
So if a "spread" QB is all we need, why will it take us 5 years? It doesn't take that long to recruit a QB. Plus since this is about Chip Kelly it seems like Nick Foles is doing just fine in his offense.
Yup, because it took Ohio 5 years to successfully go from a pro style to a spread offense
BOX OUT!!!!!
Thats not true. The OL is sliding towards the field and will have that side picked up unless NW sends two players to the same gap. Kerridge doesn't even look at that side of the field. He immediately starts running toward the opposite side on the snap.
42 sounds like a lot, but I dont doubt it. When I went through some of the UFR data I found that we had run over 60 different formations on the year. I personally like using a lot of different formations, but not to the extent that we do.
I also hate how we leave Williams 1v1 with a DE in pass pro on that 3rd and 8. Matching up a poor blocking TE with a DE in an obvious passing situation is poor football.
I don't like how our RB's start on the opposite side of where they are going in pass pro. I think it makes it way more difficult for them and I don't see any advantage to it. Watch Kerridge on the sack that Brian linked. He has to come all the way across to check the OLB, once he realizes the OLB isn't coming he has to change direction and try and work back to the other blitzing LB.
I think it would be much easier if he started on the left. Then he could step straight up and check the OLB, and then work to the other LB without having to change direction. I also think it would be easier to see everything that is going on when you aren't sprinting across the formation.
Lets use the QBR metric that takes every aspect into account and see if we conclued DG has regressed. Keep in mind this also takes into account the strength of the opponent.
2012 QBR - 90.7
2013 QBR - 62.9
Looks like quite a regression to me.
Looks to me like DG had nobody open on most of those plays (except Butt on #2) and outside of the hitches and outs we completed, nobody was open all day. It seemed like we really struggled to get people open against man to man coverage, especially in the red zone and on the roll outs.
I think we both know that is a dumb argument to make. But back to the orignal point of our chances of scoring a TD from inside the 3 if we get the 1st down. Michigans Red Zone TD % this year is 64%, so its not unreasonable to assume that from the 3 yardline and in, it would be higher than 70%.
As the Mathlete mentioned in this thread Michigan has converted 58% of 3rd/4th and 1 this season. So I am not sure why everyone keeps saying we are horrible at converting short yardage plays. And your "the odds of making the first down were more like slim to none" comment isn't exactly true. In fact we actually ended up converting 2 crucial 4th downs later in the game.
You wouldn't look at the probability of scoring a TD in the redzone, you would look at the probability of scoring a TD from 1st and goal at the 3 yard line or closer. My guess is it's over 70%.
You say we need to take into account Michigan's ability to convert short yardarge situations. Well here you go:
"Michigan has converted 58% of 3rd/4th and 1 this season, right on the expected average." - From the mathlete later in this thread
Now taking that into account it seems like going for it was the correct call.
I think the only way you can confirm that it was the wrong call was by saying we had a less than 30% chance of converting the first down. I am sure we could argue all day about whether that was the case or not (jmblue and complete lunacy posted some stats about it up the thread a little.
Forget about the numbers for a second and think about this.
Say we kick a FG and make it. What about our offense had shown you that we are likely to go down and get another score to win that game? Really we are playing for OT if we do that.
Do you really want to take our chances in OT? We had struggled in the redzone all day. Like you said they gave us a gift on the 10 yard line and we couldn't do anything with it, why would we be able to do anything from the 25? I was scared shitless during OT. The longer and longer it went, the more i thought we would lose bc I didnt have any confidence in our offense.
I would much rather put all my marbles on getting 2 yards and scoring a TD, than hoping for OT.
Take a look at the 3rd down play. If we run a naked boot with DG there he is left 1 on 1 with an OLB. It would have been a TD for sure.
Obviously they were blocking on run plays, but was she able to pick up what route combinations we were running throughout the game? If so I would like to know what they were
2. Say we kick a FG and make it. What about our offense had shown you that we are likely to go down and get another score to win that game?
I would much rather put all my marbles on getting 2 yards than kicking a FG, getting a stop and going down again and getting a score.
And i certainly didn't feel confident in our team in OT (based in the PSU game, and how we had played this entire game)
I actually don't think we run PA off of a stretch look very often. How many naked boots can you remember this year? We ran it once in the Nebraska game, but it was out of shotgun, a formation we haven't run stretch from all season.
I know what you are saying, but with out statistics people are going to selectively remember what they want to remember. It's kinda like remembering all the hot chicks you hooked up with in college, and then going back and looking at their pictures realizing they weren't all hot.
Yes it is. I fixed a few things in the Minnesota game, and added the PSU, IU, and MSU games to it myself. It might not be perfectly accurate, but I think it still does a decent job at showing us some tendancies.