I think the claim is PSU started terrible, ended strong; while we started hot and ended poorly.
Only problem is it's not accurate. PSU started 0-5 but outgained every opponent except OSU & Iowa. That includes IU by 270 yds and Neb by 200 yds, in losses. Not really akin to our 4 losses.
They also ended with a 4 game winning streak; we started with 1 win then a loss to MSU so that's an awfully generous "hot" start
Actually considering signing up today b/c I miss reading Bill Connelly's cfb previews.
Although, now he does them by division instead of one for each team. So I'm still not sure it's worth it .... but can probably cancel after a month if I'm not using it, right?
Yea - I bet the NFL would move their draft back a month if it meant seeing the results of a CFB season. But would they if half of CFB played in fall/winter?
unfortunately this isn’t true. McCaffrey was 9th, Milton 18th, McNamara 15th. You may have been looking at the position rankings after they broken up by dual threat / pro style QBs.
i’m pointing that out not to be pedantic but to highlight that none of these guys was a recruit on the level of Shea Patterson. And none of them have anywhere near his accumulation of in-game experience.
I was very disappointed by Patterson and I certainly think there’s a chance we have better play at QB next year. But I also cannot advise assuming the back up or third string quarterbacks were secretly better than the starter all along. As much as I want that to be the case.
PS Shea was #1 QB in his class ... #6 in that same class? Illinois superstar Brandon Peters
I was shocked that the band doesn't play The Victors when we win.
The ending went: 4th down stop with 30 or so seconds to play, M kneels out the clock, crowd cheers a close win and - katie perry or some shit booms into the stadium as the two teams run out to mid field. By the time that song's over the players were already over by the student section and the crowd was filing out. They played the fight song after that but the rush that comes with "we won!" is fleeting and by then had flet.
I know it seems persnickety but jesus h christ i just felt dirty not singing the victors after a win. For goodness' sake what's the point of having the best fight song in sports if you celebrate wins by playing god damned pit bull? no offense bri
Fully agree with this analysis. Great job highlighting just how Brown took the risks we assumed he would, and why they were generally smart, and why they still failed.
The crippling DT issue is self inflicted though - over the 2017-18 classes we took an enigmatic 5* and two guys who we moved to OL; one transferred and the other switched back to D (i think?) and doesn't play. We have an oft-injured one-trick pony leftover from 2016, two DEs we slid inside (maybe always planned, maybe not), and 2 touted true freshman who evidently are worse at NT than the former walkon safety/LB hybrid. That's not luck at all.
Has not "improved every year" - in fact this year was his worst since his first season there. Went 7-11 in conference after 5 straight years of 10-8 (4x) or 11-7. Kenpom #79 after two years in the 60s which came on the heels of a #48 / #27 / #44 stretch.
Obviously we don't know any of them personally but yea, Poole strikes me as the one least enamored with college hoops. But he also seems like he could make great strides with more time in college; not so for Chuck nor, arguably, IB
I think last night we actually (for once) tried to feed Teske for a post up vs a mismatch and we immediately turned it over. I'm guessing we just dont work on it much (practice time is a limited resource) so even if it would make sense in theory it isn't practical. Like if a spread passing offense goes against a defense that is small and can't stop an old school power rushing offense...can't just suddenly become a completely different offense unless you're the Patriots
Nunez, or another guard (Brooks or DDJ) enters the rotation and Poole can play the 3 (he did a bit last night w/ Brooks & Simpson at 1/2). That's if Iggy leaves of course. I strongly doubt we can grab a '19 recruit who would contribute next year ahead of DDJ & Nunez, especially since those two were higher priorities than a hypothetical late add this year (and would have a year of experience).
Barring a mass exodus (Matthews plus 2+ of Poole/Iggy/Teske) I dont think we're looking at a lack of rotations options next year since DDJ, Johns, Castleton, Nunez and basically Brooks are all waiting in the wings. Now, whether they're all good enough to sustain us as a top 10 national program is yet to be seen.
Hard to refute the idea that the coaching instability is probably a bad sign. I think that, on a case by case basis, you could look at the OC change and the DL coach change as net positives, and Washington was never going to stay at M over OSU, and on and on. But that may be missing the forest for the trees - the fact that we've had to push out an OC-ish figure twice in two years, the fact that we seem to lose a couple position coaches each offseason (not always to promotions either)...these are probably not good signs on the whole, even if each particular "tree" is defensible.
I like this line of thinking about this exercise. The essential difference is you're comparing your current opinion of each program to what we perceive to be the theoretical "market's" opinion. Whereas i just compare my current opinion to my opinion 1 year ago.
My only disagreement with your conclusions is: I think (maybe i'm wrong) the "market" would think very highly of Nebraska's stock, even if they haven't done anything yet. I bet they'd have the highest stock price in the West, and would be 4th in the conference but not far behind M and PSU. If that were the case, would it still be a "buy"?
The order was purely by preseason s&p+ rank - by season's end we were #2 in the B10.
As for the what you said about M (and Iowa and Neb) i agree we may not be as good next year. Yet still, i'm more optimistic about the program's future *today* than i was a year ago at this time. Know what i mean? More of a long term view than year-to-year
I see what you're saying - 2018 was a major disappointment. But then again, I'm not sure the situation they're in right now, looking forward, is any different from what you would have expected 12 months ago. You might be right tho. .
Had sort of forgotten how damn Midwestern these Hoke classes were. Brian's comment "Another bad miss by Rivals in the Midwest" made me want to break the scoring down by MW vs. Other. Turns out that's pointless b/c the only non-MW guys to have significantly differing rankings were Bars (TN), Mags (CA), and perhaps Pipkins, if Missouri isn't considered MW by the services.
FWIW, Houma (UT), Clark (KY), and perhaps Chesson (MO) were also out-of-region recruits.
I was wondering the same thing, and I'm not an expert by any means, but I think that 0.986 is still bad because the overall 1.2 is inflated by things like easy fast break buckets. Teams only go to the pick-and-roll when the D has already stymied the easiest ways to score. The opposing offense will also perhaps run more complex plays early in the shot clock which try to get an open layup/dunk or 3. If those fail, they'll fall back to the simple pick and roll, at which point an average defense should be able to hold the O well below the 0.986 PPP we allow.
A similar concept is the semi-argument we've seen around here re: Irvin's mid range jumper. Off the top of my head I think he's getting around 0.9 PPP on that jumper he shoots off the dribble around the elbow. If that's all you're getting on a typical posession, you wont' be very good. But if it's late in the shot clock and we haven't been able to get a better shot yet, 0.9 PPP isn't a bad last resort.
Very interesting write up. I especially appreciate that, in Teske, Ace at least tries to offer a possible solution besides "be better." I certainly want to believe Teske could be a major help; at the very least it's worth a shot b/c the opportunity cost of sitting Donnal seems to be approximately zero.
However, after also reading Dylan's piece on the matter, one thought struck me. Dylan's only mention of rim protection was in regard to DJ Wilson; namely, how Wilson appeared to be a solid rim protector early in the year but has clearly regressed in that aspect. Dylan thinks this may be due to Wilson's attempts to avoid fouling (3 fouls in the last 4 games).
My concern is - is there a risk the same would happen to Teske? In exactly 40 minutes this season Teske was an aggressive and successful rim protector (4 blocks) but also committed 5 fouls. It seems possible to me he might end up following the Wilson path, wherein he gets coached to stop fouling so much and consequently stops being useful around the rim.
Sadly, I'm basically hypothesizing that the guy on the bench who seems to offer a skill we need will cease to offer that skill as he plays more.
Been living in Boston for two years. Basically concur with everything above.
1. Do not sit down the 1st base line anywhere from the start of the outfield to Pesky's pole. You'll have to look almost 90 degrees to your right to see the plate. Just about anywhere else is fine. Don't worry about being too close to the field - park is so small you're close enough in any seat besides dead center.
2. Freedom Trail is a must if you like US History. If you dont want to do it all i'd focus on the North End stops - Paul Revere House & Old North Church - and combine that w/ an Italian food meal.
3. Cape Cod/Nantucket - you'd be very smart to do this part mid-week, Tuesday-Thursday. Weekend traffic is horrendous, particularly getting on to the Cape on Friday afternoon and leaving Sunday at any time. I would stay in the middle of the Cape then take the Hyannis ferry over to Nantucket in the morning, come back in the evening. You wont need more than a day trip to see the highlights. I would take the bus tour of the island, btw.
4. Never been to Salem but if you're looking for a New-Englandy scene, check out Portland, ME (<2 hours), or even Dover or Portsmouth, NH (1 hr).
We didn't tackle to the ground in college during practice once the regular season started. Very quick whistle, but we had major depth issues.
In high school it was a different story - coaches loved to make us hit as often as possible, even did Oklahoma drill mid-season if they weren't happy.
Certainly there were more injuries in HS practice, probably due largely to hitting. However, i know our college team was damned bad at tackling so if you can afford it perhaps the practice injuries are a cost worth paying.
Opening Saturday. Hope i can go, probably wont be many other reasons for me to attend an Arkansas game. Plus it's one of like 5 states i haven't been to yet.
I noticed this on the chart towards the top: Rutgers allows 121.4 points/100 possessions, 12 more than next-worst Minnesota at 109.4. That gap is larger than the gap from Minnesota to #1 defense MSU (98.7).
Top put it another way: the 2nd worst defense in the league is closer to being the best than the worst. Incredible.
P.S. Painful but appreciated analysis, Alex. Thanks.
No luck yet. But then again I only get mail like once/twice a week, always in big bunches (all bent to shit) after days of nothing. I figure my mailman is a drunk. Oh well, something to get excited for every day til it gets here.
100% second this recommendation. Was surprised it hadn't come up yet. If you're interested in leadership, the Civil War, or just a magnificent American story, this should be atop your list. Just a brilliant work. My #1 non-fiction of the past few years, or maybe ever.
I went sans cable almost two years ago. First year my roomate had Roku, which was decent. Last fall i moved to a place by myself and went with chromecast. Chromecast is great for all ESPN channels, HBO go and netflix (and probably hulu plus which i dont have). You're supposed to be able to stream a google chrome tab from your laptop to the tv wirelessly, but it is choppy and doesnt work great, yet.
Consequently, i have to watch stuff like BTN and AMC on my laptop, which is fine for me but only by myself. You could also hook the computer to the TV and watch that stuff on the tube but that's a pain.
If you plan to be watching anything besides ESPN/HBO/Netflix w/ more than one it would get annoying i think. Personally i dont watch much TV besides sports and the occassional TV show via netflis, so it's not a big problem. Oh and i live in a city so i get all the networks (CBS/FOX/ABC/NBC) plus PBS and other random stuff via antenna, which is clear as day (and free!).
All told, to me it is worth saving the money for the occassional hassle but perhaps not for your situation. Good luck!
I think it would make sense to include those who recieved medical redshirts after their freshman year in this analysis. The fact that they later got the redshirt b/c of injury means playing as a true frosh doesn't matter now, but it is still useful data for the study here. For example, the fact that Desmond Morgan got hurt in 2014 does not have any relevance on our analysis of whether him playing in 2011 was a good idea, right? Since no one expected the medical redshirt, the decision can still be judged on value of playing in 2011 vs. value of possibly having him in 2015.
And now that I mention it, how much should the possiblity of a medical redshirt down the road impact the redshirt-or-don't decision? For example, the decision not to redshirt Desmond Morgan worked out great b/c you got value in 2011 AND 2015, whereas if you had redshirted him you would get none in 2011, and still lose 2014. That question brings up the medical hardship question - if Morgan had redshirted in 2011, then missed 2014 for injury, would he get a 6th year? I dont quite know how that works.
As for the likelihood of a player missing a year due to injury...from our very small sample size above, you broke down 23 players, and left out 4 who got hurt, so on this team the odds of not initially redshirting then taking it down the line for medical reasons was ~15%.
Anyways, from a game theory perspective, the non-zero chance that a player may be forced to miss a season later in his career due to injury, and the realization that if that is going to happen you may as well not have redshirted him to begin with, should be a variable, however small, in the formula, don't you think?
You certainly couldn't blame the guy if he wanted to leave. Like you said, he helped get them into the big money Pac 12; strange they don't seem willing to invest in continuing their climb up the CFB ladder.
Utah has the highest proportion of Mormons, at 60% of the state. Next is Idaho (24%), Wyoming (9%) and Nevada (4-5%).
No one is saying a Mormon coach wouldn't leave Utah or that region, but you could imagine being in a state where 60% of people belong to you religion, as opposed to <1% in Iowa, could be a reason to stay in Utah. Also, i'm willing to bet his religion may be part of the reason he is coaching in Utah now - his entire career he has coached in the state with the exception of 6 years in Idaho.
but still owe him 75% through 2019, then they fire the new guy after three bad years (end of 2017), they should be allowed to obligate Ferentz to return to the HC gig for 2018-19 or forfeit his buyout...would never happen, and would probably be a complete disaster, but it would be just.
I think you're underrating the value of a worthwhile backup, even if he is never used. I mean, in retrospect if in 2011 the Pats knew Brady would be healthy for every game for 3 years and they would never need a decent backup, they wouldn't have taken Mallett but of course that isn't possible. So yes, if you judge the 2011 pick based on the fact that Brady never got hurt it was a bad pick. But that's unfair since there was no way of knowing Brady wouldn't miss a game for 3 years.
As for the out-of-work QBs, a young guy with a cannon and potential is worth more than, like, Shaun Hill because there's at least a chance he can develop into a quality starter if Brady had a major injury. Again, just b/c you never cash in the insurance policy doesn't mean you shouldn't have gotten insurance in the first place.
you have to have a backup QB, and you'd rather have a decent one. It's like having a home insurance policy you never use - doesn't mean it wasn't worth having insurance just b/c your house never burned down.
I'm sure the Pats think of it as spending a third round pick and cashing it in for 3 years of having a decent backup quarterback (that you thankfully never had to use) PLUS a 6th round pick - better value than plenty of 3rd round picks
First off, great stuff, thanks for all the hard work.
Also, McEvoy is supposedly going to start over Stave for Wisconsin vs. LSU. I know at the top you said if a projected starting QB gets beat out, the assessment transfers to the winner of the starting job; would you change anything in this case given that McEvoy is a different type of player? McEvoy is a converted safety and supposedly a good runner with poor throwing mechanics - my guess is this means very little unnecessary passing with that great OL/RB combo, new WRs and a QB who runs better than he throws...not sure how that would impact your 4 factors, however.
please re-read what was written above. ThadMatta said we would have another *highly-touted* qb lined up to play when Morris would be a 5th year Sr. I said we won't, since Speight wasn't highly-touted, Malzone probably won't be, and deWeaver isn't considered a blue chipper now, though it is still quite early for him.
Neither Thad Matta nor I ever offered an opinion on how good Morris, Speight, Malzone or deWeaver will be (I certainly dont have a clue); no one is saying the star rankings are right or wrong; the debate is about if there will be another highly-touted guy there to play when Morris would have been a 5th year, and I argue there won't, which is not to say we're gonna be terrible b/c there's not 5-star.
Good rant about recruiting rankings though, i guess.
its possible one or both moves up; but my point is the poster acts as if not having Morris in 2017 won't be a big deal b/c we'll have similarly-touted guys behind him. I disagree: Speight isn't, Malzone isnt with 6 months to go, and deWeaver (who would be in only his 2nd season) isn't highly ranked initially (but he's got 18 months, and 2 HS season, to go up....or down).
Regardless, the present evidence implies we will not have some blue-chip waiting in the wings.
we will not have some other highly touted QB lined up when Morris would be a 5th year - Speight was a 3-star on the 24/7 Composite rankings, Malzone is a 3-star in those same rankings, and deWeaver wasn't in the initial Scout 300. Maybe one of them will be good but none are highly-touted, especially in comparison to borderline 5-star Morris.
I was going to suggest the B1G recruiting recap idea before i saw you're already on top of it. It's easy enough to look at the numbers from 24/7 Composite, but a little more analysis would be much appreciated! Perhaps even a little blurb on the class from the mgoblog-counterpart website contributors for each respective team if they are willing, sort of like VEQ...
Agree with your second paragraph - Hoke is not the reason for all of the bad things about the department, he does things the right way, and he would be here with or without the money. However, isn't it easy to understand why people who shell out those hundreds, even thousands, of dollars, as well as immeasurable emotion, to support the program are upset that the product is inexplicably regressing, and worse, the man in charge of that product is then insulting the loyalty of said customers?
Recent Comments
Haskins wasn't a top 250 recruit, right? Not close. But he has a star down - fyi Seth.
Only noticed that b/c I was surprised our very good OL only has one top 250 guy.
Anyhow, great work as always Alex!
"Robbins celebrated like he'd birthed the savior of the world" made me smile in spite of myself
I think the claim is PSU started terrible, ended strong; while we started hot and ended poorly.
Only problem is it's not accurate. PSU started 0-5 but outgained every opponent except OSU & Iowa. That includes IU by 270 yds and Neb by 200 yds, in losses. Not really akin to our 4 losses.
They also ended with a 4 game winning streak; we started with 1 win then a loss to MSU so that's an awfully generous "hot" start
Actually considering signing up today b/c I miss reading Bill Connelly's cfb previews.
Although, now he does them by division instead of one for each team. So I'm still not sure it's worth it .... but can probably cancel after a month if I'm not using it, right?
seth, buying your beer if i ever see you out in AA ... not that you can ever go out w/ the amount of content you're producing these days
Yea - I bet the NFL would move their draft back a month if it meant seeing the results of a CFB season. But would they if half of CFB played in fall/winter?
“all 3 were top 10 QBs in their class”
unfortunately this isn’t true. McCaffrey was 9th, Milton 18th, McNamara 15th. You may have been looking at the position rankings after they broken up by dual threat / pro style QBs.
i’m pointing that out not to be pedantic but to highlight that none of these guys was a recruit on the level of Shea Patterson. And none of them have anywhere near his accumulation of in-game experience.
I was very disappointed by Patterson and I certainly think there’s a chance we have better play at QB next year. But I also cannot advise assuming the back up or third string quarterbacks were secretly better than the starter all along. As much as I want that to be the case.
PS Shea was #1 QB in his class ... #6 in that same class? Illinois superstar Brandon Peters
Re: (non) Homecoming, (generic) Stadium Experience ...
I was shocked that the band doesn't play The Victors when we win.
The ending went: 4th down stop with 30 or so seconds to play, M kneels out the clock, crowd cheers a close win and - katie perry or some shit booms into the stadium as the two teams run out to mid field. By the time that song's over the players were already over by the student section and the crowd was filing out. They played the fight song after that but the rush that comes with "we won!" is fleeting and by then had flet.
I know it seems persnickety but jesus h christ i just felt dirty not singing the victors after a win. For goodness' sake what's the point of having the best fight song in sports if you celebrate wins by playing god damned pit bull? no offense bri
Fully agree with this analysis. Great job highlighting just how Brown took the risks we assumed he would, and why they were generally smart, and why they still failed.
The crippling DT issue is self inflicted though - over the 2017-18 classes we took an enigmatic 5* and two guys who we moved to OL; one transferred and the other switched back to D (i think?) and doesn't play. We have an oft-injured one-trick pony leftover from 2016, two DEs we slid inside (maybe always planned, maybe not), and 2 touted true freshman who evidently are worse at NT than the former walkon safety/LB hybrid. That's not luck at all.
top 2 get 2 byes each?
That video has nigh on 300k views - how many are due to this (bi-?) annual post?
Yes b/c they seem to like the analytics stuff. No b/c they have nearly zero CFB content...but maybe this is their attempt to expand to CFB?
Has not "improved every year" - in fact this year was his worst since his first season there. Went 7-11 in conference after 5 straight years of 10-8 (4x) or 11-7. Kenpom #79 after two years in the 60s which came on the heels of a #48 / #27 / #44 stretch.
Three years ago he may have been attractive.
Obviously we don't know any of them personally but yea, Poole strikes me as the one least enamored with college hoops. But he also seems like he could make great strides with more time in college; not so for Chuck nor, arguably, IB
I think last night we actually (for once) tried to feed Teske for a post up vs a mismatch and we immediately turned it over. I'm guessing we just dont work on it much (practice time is a limited resource) so even if it would make sense in theory it isn't practical. Like if a spread passing offense goes against a defense that is small and can't stop an old school power rushing offense...can't just suddenly become a completely different offense unless you're the Patriots
I remember being kinda high on Nunez but now i can't remember why haha. Quick release off the dribble maybe, or was that DDJ?
Nunez, or another guard (Brooks or DDJ) enters the rotation and Poole can play the 3 (he did a bit last night w/ Brooks & Simpson at 1/2). That's if Iggy leaves of course. I strongly doubt we can grab a '19 recruit who would contribute next year ahead of DDJ & Nunez, especially since those two were higher priorities than a hypothetical late add this year (and would have a year of experience).
Barring a mass exodus (Matthews plus 2+ of Poole/Iggy/Teske) I dont think we're looking at a lack of rotations options next year since DDJ, Johns, Castleton, Nunez and basically Brooks are all waiting in the wings. Now, whether they're all good enough to sustain us as a top 10 national program is yet to be seen.
Hard to refute the idea that the coaching instability is probably a bad sign. I think that, on a case by case basis, you could look at the OC change and the DL coach change as net positives, and Washington was never going to stay at M over OSU, and on and on. But that may be missing the forest for the trees - the fact that we've had to push out an OC-ish figure twice in two years, the fact that we seem to lose a couple position coaches each offseason (not always to promotions either)...these are probably not good signs on the whole, even if each particular "tree" is defensible.
I like this line of thinking about this exercise. The essential difference is you're comparing your current opinion of each program to what we perceive to be the theoretical "market's" opinion. Whereas i just compare my current opinion to my opinion 1 year ago.
My only disagreement with your conclusions is: I think (maybe i'm wrong) the "market" would think very highly of Nebraska's stock, even if they haven't done anything yet. I bet they'd have the highest stock price in the West, and would be 4th in the conference but not far behind M and PSU. If that were the case, would it still be a "buy"?
The order was purely by preseason s&p+ rank - by season's end we were #2 in the B10.
As for the what you said about M (and Iowa and Neb) i agree we may not be as good next year. Yet still, i'm more optimistic about the program's future *today* than i was a year ago at this time. Know what i mean? More of a long term view than year-to-year
I definitely agree they're going to be better next year. But I also think they're exactly where we expected them to be at this point, right?
I see what you're saying - 2018 was a major disappointment. But then again, I'm not sure the situation they're in right now, looking forward, is any different from what you would have expected 12 months ago. You might be right tho. .
to rise from "pushing from behind" or "waiting their turn?"
I'll take D. Jeter
Had sort of forgotten how damn Midwestern these Hoke classes were. Brian's comment "Another bad miss by Rivals in the Midwest" made me want to break the scoring down by MW vs. Other. Turns out that's pointless b/c the only non-MW guys to have significantly differing rankings were Bars (TN), Mags (CA), and perhaps Pipkins, if Missouri isn't considered MW by the services.
FWIW, Houma (UT), Clark (KY), and perhaps Chesson (MO) were also out-of-region recruits.
I was wondering the same thing, and I'm not an expert by any means, but I think that 0.986 is still bad because the overall 1.2 is inflated by things like easy fast break buckets. Teams only go to the pick-and-roll when the D has already stymied the easiest ways to score. The opposing offense will also perhaps run more complex plays early in the shot clock which try to get an open layup/dunk or 3. If those fail, they'll fall back to the simple pick and roll, at which point an average defense should be able to hold the O well below the 0.986 PPP we allow.
A similar concept is the semi-argument we've seen around here re: Irvin's mid range jumper. Off the top of my head I think he's getting around 0.9 PPP on that jumper he shoots off the dribble around the elbow. If that's all you're getting on a typical posession, you wont' be very good. But if it's late in the shot clock and we haven't been able to get a better shot yet, 0.9 PPP isn't a bad last resort.
Very interesting write up. I especially appreciate that, in Teske, Ace at least tries to offer a possible solution besides "be better." I certainly want to believe Teske could be a major help; at the very least it's worth a shot b/c the opportunity cost of sitting Donnal seems to be approximately zero.
However, after also reading Dylan's piece on the matter, one thought struck me. Dylan's only mention of rim protection was in regard to DJ Wilson; namely, how Wilson appeared to be a solid rim protector early in the year but has clearly regressed in that aspect. Dylan thinks this may be due to Wilson's attempts to avoid fouling (3 fouls in the last 4 games).
My concern is - is there a risk the same would happen to Teske? In exactly 40 minutes this season Teske was an aggressive and successful rim protector (4 blocks) but also committed 5 fouls. It seems possible to me he might end up following the Wilson path, wherein he gets coached to stop fouling so much and consequently stops being useful around the rim.
Sadly, I'm basically hypothesizing that the guy on the bench who seems to offer a skill we need will cease to offer that skill as he plays more.
Been living in Boston for two years. Basically concur with everything above.
1. Do not sit down the 1st base line anywhere from the start of the outfield to Pesky's pole. You'll have to look almost 90 degrees to your right to see the plate. Just about anywhere else is fine. Don't worry about being too close to the field - park is so small you're close enough in any seat besides dead center.
2. Freedom Trail is a must if you like US History. If you dont want to do it all i'd focus on the North End stops - Paul Revere House & Old North Church - and combine that w/ an Italian food meal.
3. Cape Cod/Nantucket - you'd be very smart to do this part mid-week, Tuesday-Thursday. Weekend traffic is horrendous, particularly getting on to the Cape on Friday afternoon and leaving Sunday at any time. I would stay in the middle of the Cape then take the Hyannis ferry over to Nantucket in the morning, come back in the evening. You wont need more than a day trip to see the highlights. I would take the bus tour of the island, btw.
4. Never been to Salem but if you're looking for a New-Englandy scene, check out Portland, ME (<2 hours), or even Dover or Portsmouth, NH (1 hr).
Enjoy!
We didn't tackle to the ground in college during practice once the regular season started. Very quick whistle, but we had major depth issues.
In high school it was a different story - coaches loved to make us hit as often as possible, even did Oklahoma drill mid-season if they weren't happy.
Certainly there were more injuries in HS practice, probably due largely to hitting. However, i know our college team was damned bad at tackling so if you can afford it perhaps the practice injuries are a cost worth paying.
2018 is in Ann Arbor. Both are opening weekend. Still hope i can go to Fayetteville
Opening Saturday. Hope i can go, probably wont be many other reasons for me to attend an Arkansas game. Plus it's one of like 5 states i haven't been to yet.
I noticed this on the chart towards the top: Rutgers allows 121.4 points/100 possessions, 12 more than next-worst Minnesota at 109.4. That gap is larger than the gap from Minnesota to #1 defense MSU (98.7).
Top put it another way: the 2nd worst defense in the league is closer to being the best than the worst. Incredible.
P.S. Painful but appreciated analysis, Alex. Thanks.
No luck yet. But then again I only get mail like once/twice a week, always in big bunches (all bent to shit) after days of nothing. I figure my mailman is a drunk. Oh well, something to get excited for every day til it gets here.
100% second this recommendation. Was surprised it hadn't come up yet. If you're interested in leadership, the Civil War, or just a magnificent American story, this should be atop your list. Just a brilliant work. My #1 non-fiction of the past few years, or maybe ever.
I went sans cable almost two years ago. First year my roomate had Roku, which was decent. Last fall i moved to a place by myself and went with chromecast. Chromecast is great for all ESPN channels, HBO go and netflix (and probably hulu plus which i dont have). You're supposed to be able to stream a google chrome tab from your laptop to the tv wirelessly, but it is choppy and doesnt work great, yet.
Consequently, i have to watch stuff like BTN and AMC on my laptop, which is fine for me but only by myself. You could also hook the computer to the TV and watch that stuff on the tube but that's a pain.
If you plan to be watching anything besides ESPN/HBO/Netflix w/ more than one it would get annoying i think. Personally i dont watch much TV besides sports and the occassional TV show via netflis, so it's not a big problem. Oh and i live in a city so i get all the networks (CBS/FOX/ABC/NBC) plus PBS and other random stuff via antenna, which is clear as day (and free!).
All told, to me it is worth saving the money for the occassional hassle but perhaps not for your situation. Good luck!
I think it would make sense to include those who recieved medical redshirts after their freshman year in this analysis. The fact that they later got the redshirt b/c of injury means playing as a true frosh doesn't matter now, but it is still useful data for the study here. For example, the fact that Desmond Morgan got hurt in 2014 does not have any relevance on our analysis of whether him playing in 2011 was a good idea, right? Since no one expected the medical redshirt, the decision can still be judged on value of playing in 2011 vs. value of possibly having him in 2015.
And now that I mention it, how much should the possiblity of a medical redshirt down the road impact the redshirt-or-don't decision? For example, the decision not to redshirt Desmond Morgan worked out great b/c you got value in 2011 AND 2015, whereas if you had redshirted him you would get none in 2011, and still lose 2014. That question brings up the medical hardship question - if Morgan had redshirted in 2011, then missed 2014 for injury, would he get a 6th year? I dont quite know how that works.
As for the likelihood of a player missing a year due to injury...from our very small sample size above, you broke down 23 players, and left out 4 who got hurt, so on this team the odds of not initially redshirting then taking it down the line for medical reasons was ~15%.
Anyways, from a game theory perspective, the non-zero chance that a player may be forced to miss a season later in his career due to injury, and the realization that if that is going to happen you may as well not have redshirted him to begin with, should be a variable, however small, in the formula, don't you think?
You certainly couldn't blame the guy if he wanted to leave. Like you said, he helped get them into the big money Pac 12; strange they don't seem willing to invest in continuing their climb up the CFB ladder.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/mormon-population-60-percent-utah-4-5-percent-nevada
Utah has the highest proportion of Mormons, at 60% of the state. Next is Idaho (24%), Wyoming (9%) and Nevada (4-5%).
No one is saying a Mormon coach wouldn't leave Utah or that region, but you could imagine being in a state where 60% of people belong to you religion, as opposed to <1% in Iowa, could be a reason to stay in Utah. Also, i'm willing to bet his religion may be part of the reason he is coaching in Utah now - his entire career he has coached in the state with the exception of 6 years in Idaho.
but still owe him 75% through 2019, then they fire the new guy after three bad years (end of 2017), they should be allowed to obligate Ferentz to return to the HC gig for 2018-19 or forfeit his buyout...would never happen, and would probably be a complete disaster, but it would be just.
is a Mormom, fwiw. Not sure if that would preclude him from leaving Utah.
Solid post though, I had been under the impression Ferentz was untouchable but you changed my mind.
just flat out disagree here.
I think you're underrating the value of a worthwhile backup, even if he is never used. I mean, in retrospect if in 2011 the Pats knew Brady would be healthy for every game for 3 years and they would never need a decent backup, they wouldn't have taken Mallett but of course that isn't possible. So yes, if you judge the 2011 pick based on the fact that Brady never got hurt it was a bad pick. But that's unfair since there was no way of knowing Brady wouldn't miss a game for 3 years.
As for the out-of-work QBs, a young guy with a cannon and potential is worth more than, like, Shaun Hill because there's at least a chance he can develop into a quality starter if Brady had a major injury. Again, just b/c you never cash in the insurance policy doesn't mean you shouldn't have gotten insurance in the first place.
you have to have a backup QB, and you'd rather have a decent one. It's like having a home insurance policy you never use - doesn't mean it wasn't worth having insurance just b/c your house never burned down.
I'm sure the Pats think of it as spending a third round pick and cashing it in for 3 years of having a decent backup quarterback (that you thankfully never had to use) PLUS a 6th round pick - better value than plenty of 3rd round picks
First off, great stuff, thanks for all the hard work.
Also, McEvoy is supposedly going to start over Stave for Wisconsin vs. LSU. I know at the top you said if a projected starting QB gets beat out, the assessment transfers to the winner of the starting job; would you change anything in this case given that McEvoy is a different type of player? McEvoy is a converted safety and supposedly a good runner with poor throwing mechanics - my guess is this means very little unnecessary passing with that great OL/RB combo, new WRs and a QB who runs better than he throws...not sure how that would impact your 4 factors, however.
misread the 24/7 site. my bad
please re-read what was written above. ThadMatta said we would have another *highly-touted* qb lined up to play when Morris would be a 5th year Sr. I said we won't, since Speight wasn't highly-touted, Malzone probably won't be, and deWeaver isn't considered a blue chipper now, though it is still quite early for him.
Neither Thad Matta nor I ever offered an opinion on how good Morris, Speight, Malzone or deWeaver will be (I certainly dont have a clue); no one is saying the star rankings are right or wrong; the debate is about if there will be another highly-touted guy there to play when Morris would have been a 5th year, and I argue there won't, which is not to say we're gonna be terrible b/c there's not 5-star.
Good rant about recruiting rankings though, i guess.
its possible one or both moves up; but my point is the poster acts as if not having Morris in 2017 won't be a big deal b/c we'll have similarly-touted guys behind him. I disagree: Speight isn't, Malzone isnt with 6 months to go, and deWeaver (who would be in only his 2nd season) isn't highly ranked initially (but he's got 18 months, and 2 HS season, to go up....or down).
Regardless, the present evidence implies we will not have some blue-chip waiting in the wings.
we will not have some other highly touted QB lined up when Morris would be a 5th year - Speight was a 3-star on the 24/7 Composite rankings, Malzone is a 3-star in those same rankings, and deWeaver wasn't in the initial Scout 300. Maybe one of them will be good but none are highly-touted, especially in comparison to borderline 5-star Morris.
I was going to suggest the B1G recruiting recap idea before i saw you're already on top of it. It's easy enough to look at the numbers from 24/7 Composite, but a little more analysis would be much appreciated! Perhaps even a little blurb on the class from the mgoblog-counterpart website contributors for each respective team if they are willing, sort of like VEQ...
M-Wolverine had a dog as his avatar...you're M-Dog with a wolverine as your avatar...Imposter!
(kidding)
(don't ban me)
(kidding again)
Agree with your second paragraph - Hoke is not the reason for all of the bad things about the department, he does things the right way, and he would be here with or without the money. However, isn't it easy to understand why people who shell out those hundreds, even thousands, of dollars, as well as immeasurable emotion, to support the program are upset that the product is inexplicably regressing, and worse, the man in charge of that product is then insulting the loyalty of said customers?