Coaches' timeouts are worse. Basketball teams should get one, full stop.
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|8 hours 8 min ago||No, I didn't confuse the||
No, I didn't confuse the numerator and denominator. The numerator is the one on top.
I explained my point a little further in a response to Seth above. Depending on which question you're trying to answer, you might need to control for confounding variables. This is common practice in many, many disciplines and doesn't reflect some kind of racist tendency, despite what you suggest in your uncharitable interpretation above.
I'll reiterate a point I made earlier. Let's say that you want to know whether Thad Matta or Tim Miles is a better developer of talent. You could look to the % of their players who make it to the NBA and say, "Well, all kinds of guys can become NBA players, so this indicates that Matta is a better developer of talent." I think that's misleading. I would want to control for some variables related to who they were when they arrived (probably starting with recruiting rankings). In this case, you could just look at the % of a state that turns into top basketball prospects, which is essentially what this analysis does, and that's honestly interesting. If you wanted to know which state develops talent best (e.g., through its basketball programs), you'd probably want to control for variables related to who lives in that state and how likely they are - before basketball coaches get their hands on them - to become top prospects. For example, kids in Minnesota probably aren't thinking about basketball nearly as much as they're thinking about hockey. If this were about testing how well basketball players develop, then it would be misleading to just look at what % of the state becomes top basketball prospects. Race is a pretty lousy proxy for the kinds of things that make people more likely to become star basketball players, but it's a variable that's easy to get and it would be a start (if this were the goal).
Long story short: never mind.
|9 hours 17 min ago||(No subject)||
It's my fault for picking a name referencing something that fewer people know than I realized. An SNL skit from about a decade ago (Celebrity Jeopardy). It's actually just a coincidence that there's a mustache on my avatar and on the Burt Reynolds character.
|10 hours 14 sec ago||Makes sense. Really, it's||
Makes sense. Really, it's just about which question you're trying to answer.
As you've set it up, this suggests that if you were a basketball coach who had to blindly offer recruits knowing only the state in which they live, you should probably start with Kansas and the prep school states (and stay the hell away from Alaska).
Another interesting question is whether some states seem better than others at developing the kids who show up in their schools (as basketball players), given who shows up in those schools. That's a much messier question that would require controlling for a lot of variables, almost all of which aren't measured exactly as we'd like.
An analogy: Thad Matta obviously sees a higher percentage of his players make it to the NBA than Tim Miles does. If we wanted to know who's better at developing talent, we'd want to control for variables associated with how talented the kids are, how much they want to go to the NBA, etc.
Regardless, cool stuff and impressive that you pulled this off between diaper changes.
|10 hours 20 min ago||What?I'm one of those two||
I'm one of those two posters, and can you point out exactly where I suggested that he remove the black players from his analysis (or where the other poster, sadeto, suggested that)? My suggestion was to change leave the numerator the same (# of players, regardless of race) and run a separate set of analyses with the states' black populations only in the denominators. This is a really simple (and less than ideal) way of controlling for an obviously important variable.
I'm guessing that this conversation won't go anywhere with you, but at least others will see how off-base you are.
|11 hours 22 min ago||I came on to say three||
I came on to say three things.
2. I really like this analysis (and I'm kind of a picky asshole with these things).
3. It'd be interesting to see a separate analysis (column, really) with Black populations for the reasons that sadeto mentions above. That'd just be # of basketball players coming out of the state divided by # of African-Americans in the state. That would help us tease apart whether this is really about demographics or really about some states being basketball states.
Really, though, just congratulations.
|1 day 6 hours ago||Chatman also just led his||
Chatman also just led his team to a state title. He's next in a long line of damn good Beilein recruits.
|1 day 6 hours ago||It actually ran through my||
It actually ran through my head last night that this would be the perfect outcome. All three of those guys deserve an award and all three of those guys got an award. I like it.
|1 day 23 hours ago||I just watched this, and for||
I just watched this, and for all of his bitching about Dawson being on the bench the whole game because of officiating, the guy finished with just three fouls.
Nice coaching job, Tom, and way to provide your team with a good model for holding themselves accountable. The MSU players and MSU fans take after the MSU coach and they're all completely unbearable.
|2 days 3 hours ago||The RPI is such a joke. I||
The RPI is such a joke. I just checked it, and that ranking has UMass (#12) ahead of Michigan (#13). I cannot believe that thing hasn't been allowed to die. For context, KenPom has UMass at #48 and they received a total of nine votes across the AP and Coaches Polls.
|2 days 3 hours ago||Winning the conference by||
Winning the conference by three games is crazy.
At this point, I have to think we're ahead of Wisconsin for NCAA seeding (though that could change next week). They were much more impressive than us before the Big Ten, but we had three fewer conferences losses despite having a more difficult conference schedule. They didn't have to play in East Lansing or Columbus, while the toughest game that we missed was probably OSU at home.
|2 days 4 hours ago||There was a little tug, but||
There was a little tug, but it definitely wasn't enough for a foul to be called (on anyone anywhere), let alone for a foul to be called on Aaron Craft in the last five seconds of his college career at Value City Arena.
|2 days 4 hours ago||Fair enough. I resent your||
I resent your signature, by the way.
|2 days 4 hours ago||Nah, that's my||
Nah, that's my closing line.
Then again, I'm so smooth that my opening line usually is my closing line.
|2 days 4 hours ago||I realize this is blasphemy,||
I realize this is blasphemy, but if Urban weren't at OSU, I don't think I'd really mind him. Sure, there's stuff about him I don't like, but that's true of most top coaches. On the other hand, even if Izzo had been at Purdue or Kentucky all of these years, I still think I'd really dislike the guy (if I saw as much of him as I do now and felt like I knew his act as well as I do now).
|2 days 4 hours ago||I know, and I said "might be"||
I know, and I said "might be" and "potential" for a reason. Even if MSU somehow gets it together for the tournament - and it's getting harder and harder to see that happening - they have serious, serious roster questions beginning next year. There's no doubt that we're on the desirable side of that rivalry right now.
|2 days 5 hours ago||We might be witnessing the||
We might be witnessing the disintegration of our biggest basketball rival, which had beaten up on us for about a decade. Best of all, it looks like we've played a big part in that potential disintegration,* and it's fun watching their asshole coach get exposed a bit. Let people have fun with this.
*If I counted correctly, MSU was 18-1 when Michigan arrived in East Lansing this year. They're 5-7 since then. The schedule got tougher and whatever, but I think Beilein and company have more than a little something to do with this.
|2 days 5 hours ago||In fairness, he's still||
Sorry, weird double-post. My first ever, I think. You're welcome, America.
|2 days 5 hours ago||In fairness, he's still||
In fairness, he's still blaming the injuries, too. From Rexrode:
Tom Izzo says Harris "sprained his ankle a little."
|2 days 5 hours ago||I'm definitely trying the||
I'm definitely trying the "you put the assy in classy" line the next time I'm at the bar.
|2 days 5 hours ago||Per a Rexrode tweet:Tom Izzo||
Per a Rexrode tweet:
Tom Izzo on the OSU fan: "She was a jerk ... You want the truth or you want me to lie?"
Emphasis mine. I'm also really sick of Izzo's "I'm a hero who tells it like it is" shtick. Put Beilein in that situation, which he would never be in to begin with, and he'd say something apologetic about how he's embarrassed and he just can't do that. Put Izzo in that situation and he runs his mouth, knowing that no one will ever ask for her side of the story anyway. I find that guy as unlikable as any coach in college sports right now who's not named Bret Bielema, Lane Kiffin, or John Calipari.
|2 days 22 hours ago||I've never really understood||
I've never really understood the age thing. Are teams really worried that a guy is a year or two closer to retirement or past his prime? Is it about the guy being less likely to continue developing (since it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks)? I honestly don't get it and would love to hear someone explain it.
My sense is that very few NBA GMs or coaches are thinking more than 5-6 years into the future. The coach/GM probably might not last that long - especially if they don't win in the next few years - and the player will have a couple of shots at free agency anyway.
|3 days 5 hours ago||Everything I know about this||
Everything I know about this game comes from this thread, and not having seen a score until this comment, it's hilarious that it's only a 6 point game. Some of you guys are so ridiculous. Based on the comments, I would have guessed the score is 114-8 right now.
|3 days 9 hours ago||#2 seed in the Midwest (with Wichita St)||
I agree that this is our best-case scenario, and I think the biggest obstacle right now is Wisconsin. They're probably ahead of us in line for that spot, and I don't think the committee would put Wisconsin as a #2 and Michigan as a #3 in the same region. I'll be cheering hard for Nebraska to beat Wisconsin tomorrow and for Michigan to beat/outlast Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.
|4 days 9 hours ago||But let's even say that Groce||
But let's even say that Groce hadn't left Ohio. If you're Caris LeVert and you committed to Ohio thinking that it'd probably be your best option, then you suddenly catch the eye of Michigan, are you really better off being locked in to Ohio? I don't think so. This policy change puts recruits in a really hard position. Many non-5-star recruits will get pressured by smaller schools to sign early, since those schools know that if the recruit blows up he won't be able to take advantage of any of his new options. If you're the recruit, you can hold off, but it's really risky if that smaller school then fills your spot.
I know I'm in the minority (and I wrote more about it below), but I really dislike this. Maybe there's a way to do it that locks in the school but not the player - to kill the "uncommitable offers" or whatever they're called - but I don't like the idea of locking kids in so early.
|4 days 9 hours ago||To me, the most obvious||
To me, the most obvious change that needs to be made is that kids should be able to use some of their official visits before the fall of their senior seasons. With kids committing earlier and earlier, classes get filled by local kids who can afford to come visit schools within driving distance. In many cases, a kid from California would have to wait until the fall of his senior year to even see Michigan or any other non-Western school. That's much too late given that signing day is just a few months later.
I don't like the early signing period policy idea. I think it just shifts the whole calendar earlier, which in the long run will be bad for both recruits and (top) programs. If I were a recruit, I wouldn't want the earlier pressure to sign somewhere, especially if I thought I might get better offers later but didn't know. If I were a top program, I'd want to be able to watch kids develop as long as possible before having to choose my targets.
It's a confusing argument, but I actually think the one group this helps is non-top programs. Earlier recruiting means more messiness in who gets offered and commits, and that hurts programs like Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, etc. If you're Michigan, you can wait to see who emerges later in high school and pursue those kids - or try to flip them if they are committed elsewhere. If you're a less recruit-desirable program and you luck into grabbing one of those kids early (or scout him well), you're getting a recruit you probably couldn't hang onto with the current rules. For the recruit, that sucks, since he made a decision at a time when he didn't realize he'd have better options later.
TL; DR version: I don't like it. I think there's an obvious policy to change - that recruits have to wait until their senior years to take official visits - and they're talking about changing the wrong one.
|6 days 10 hours ago||It's PR (and a funny joke),||
It's PR (and a funny joke), and that's all there is to it. At most, they're losing some potential users from OSU... who probably never would have heard of this app but for the free publicity they're getting for the "everyone but OSU" thing.
I think it's a funny, smart idea.
|6 days 13 hours ago||According to CBS, Morgan has||
According to CBS, Morgan has played in 134 games. It looks like Stu Douglass has the Michigan record at 136. With the Indiana game, the BTT, and the NCAA tournament left, Morgan is basically guaranteed to walk out of Ann Arbor with a pretty cool, well deserved school record.
|6 days 13 hours ago||Literally. It's weird. The||
Literally. It's weird. The guy's always walking around saying things like, "The past 5 years of Michigan Basketball refers to what the University of Michigan Men's Basketball program has done from the 2009-10 through 2013-14 seasons."
|6 days 21 hours ago||It blows my mind how many NBA||
It blows my mind how many NBA players Beilein and his staff are developing right now. Just from the last two seasons, it looks to me like we'll have at least eight guys who will eventually make it to the NBA (Burke, Hardaway, McGary, Robinson, Stauskas, LeVert, Walton, and Irvin). Some of the guys have some maturing to do as players - especially Walton and Irvin - but if they're anything like the other guys on that list they should develop more than enough to find themselves on an NBA roster at some point.
Last year, I figured that Stauskas would be an eventual NBA player as a three-point specialist who would serve a valuable role on the bench (and generate some other offense). At this point I think he's a potential NBA starter someday and the type of player and personality who will attract other top talent to Michigan over the next few years as guys who want to follow his lead (shooters who see what Beilein can do with them, Canadians who want to play real basketball, etc.).
The other good news in all of this is that the NBA might get a little more watchable for Michigan fans. We're about to have a lot of guys in there to cheer for.
|1 week 9 hours ago||Section 1 made a similar "I||
Section 1 made a similar "I haven't been a Beilein fan but I'm coming around" point, so it's possible for a serious-seeming likely-human to say that kind of thing. It's damn crazy, but it's definitely possible he's serious.