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|29 weeks 2 days ago||Bingo||
These polls are barely more than page click bait. Add Nebraska to the Florida and Michigan rankings that are based on little more than large fan bases that will share the link and eat this stuff up. I hope we end up top 25 and I'm sure one of these teams will surprise but you're exactly right as to why these teams are in the rankings.
|34 weeks 3 days ago||Teams give up free points all the time||
when they foul to increase possessions at the end of games. there are cases when stopping the clock and likely changing possessions is worth the chance of extra points for the other team results in a better probabiltiy of victory than the alternative. the OP brings up a good point and this might not have been a bad time to deploy the strategy given how easily they were scoring.
|34 weeks 4 days ago||It may have been the correct strategy but...||
probably wouldn't have made more than a 5-10% difference in win probability either way. I was thinking similarly. It's a bit like letting a football team score deep in your territory with a minute left when you're tied so that you can get the ball back and try to tie it instead of have them run the clock out and have have a good chance at a field goal to end the game.
One major factor here is whether you can foul a guy off the ball without it being intentional and I think you are allowed in college bball. I'm not sure who was in the game at the time but if Johnson was in there at 44%, this probably would have been a strategy that marginally improved michigans win %, especially since it'd put one of their best rebounders on the line. My guess is Poythress was in the game for this very reason and that would mean there weren't any guys on the floor that were particulary bad at FTs.
I'm too lazy to do the probability calculations but for anyone wanting to give it a shot, the probability of oreb on a miss is not going to be anywhere near 63% for them. A FT is far easier to rebound for the defensive team than a regular shot because everyone is already in position with the defensive guys close to the basket boxing out. Of course, they're huge and they'd be going for a rebound so I'd put that at 25% (still much higher than the NCAA avg).
|34 weeks 4 days ago||Or the goal tend||
in the first half that was blatant. two extra points for them. I'm sure there were bad calls both ways but those really bad ones are always the ones that sting. Greg Anthony even wondered aloud why that isn't reviewable.
|34 weeks 4 days ago||Completely agree||
We do this often when we have fouls to give. We just kind of lazily foul them, happy to make them inbound the ball again. There's no point to it because we don't even pressure the inbounds pass. Go for the steal or save the foul in case you're in a position where you get beat on a drive and actually benefit from committing a foul on the floor.
|35 weeks 2 days ago||What does "in the zone" mean?||
I hoped you had compared our defensive efficiency when playing man-to-man vs. zone. That would be interesting. I'm not sure what to conclude from this, but it looks like you spent some time on it so thank you for that.
|41 weeks 2 days ago||I kind of feel bad for GRIII||
that he didnt leave last year. His stock is dropping and the longer he stays and doesn't turn "potential" into production, the more he'll be hurt. It's looking more and more like our better lineup is with Irvin in the game ahead of Robinson. He just has not improved his outside shot and seems to be more passive than ever. Really hope he turns it around not just for the team but himself.
|41 weeks 2 days ago||Nope||
and I think you could argue he's been better than Ennis in conference play. This kid is ballin!
|41 weeks 2 days ago||We already..||
...dropped a 77 bomb in Madison! When was the last time we won in those three towns in the same season? Loving this team.
|41 weeks 2 days ago||He's the only guy on the planet||
To be able to say that since he's the only one to have won at Pinnacle Bank Arena so far.
|43 weeks 4 hours ago||True for engineering||
but undergrad biz school apps aren't done until sophomore year so that wouldn't have any bearing on initial acceptance into the school. Unless something has changed recently. Could always use the old trick (oft joked about but I don't know anyone that ever did it) and apply for the nursing school and transfer!
|43 weeks 22 hours ago||37?||
Is the ACT scale not 36 anymore? Or are you just super genius blow the roof off smart?
|43 weeks 23 hours ago||I think you're good||
Like everyone else has said, your resume looks outstanding and the only thing with some room for improvement is your ACT score.
Two things I haven't seen mentioned on here: Gender and Geographical quotas. I think you have both working in your favor. Females make up over 60% of college applicants and college graduates these days, but schools try to keep it somewhat even (I think Michigan is at 55/45). Basically, you have less male competition and that'll help you. I just realized I'm assuming you are a male based on your sports comments and engineering interests and I may be making a you-know-what of myself by assuming that. If you're a -female, it's a tougher road. Notice everyone on this board who knows someone with great scores that didn't get in is a female (I know it's anecdoatal, but trust me, it's not co-incidental).
As has been mentioned here as well, Michigan accepts a much higher number and % of out of state student than UNC (traditionally the toughest out of state public school that limits out of state attendees to 5-10% iirc). Michigan goes 25-30% out of state and I think that's growing. And you may have a geographical advantage. UM has geographical quotas and while Tennessee doesn't have a huge allotment due to lower population, I would imagine that fewer highly qualified applicants per capita come from that region than California and New York.
All in all, I bet you have a 75% of getting in provided your essay isn't garbage and it sounds like you're a well-written high schooler.
Good luck, and Go Blue!
|43 weeks 1 day ago||This is awesome||
I watched the entire thing thinking this was a highlight vid from the whole year. Didn't realize it was only the last 3 games! Amazing how many great plays he made. Loving this bball run.
|43 weeks 1 day ago||We wish||
Would have loved both Trey and THJ back but they would have been crazy. Insurance protects from injury but it doesn't pay a salary. Coming back would have cost them a lot of money in missed wages. You and I wouldn't pass that up.
|43 weeks 6 days ago||Wowww||
It's personal for you? So you know him personally and don't like him as a human?
And you're not criticizing him for anything technical but you don't like his offense because you don't understand the the technicalities of it?
This is a hilarious post.
|44 weeks 21 hours ago||I've never understood...||
...this logic. Morris made a great decision. Do you really think that playing basketball as his full time job, with all the strength and conditioning and coaching that comes with being on an NBA team actually hurt Darius Morris?
Look, Beilein and his coaches staff are as good at developing players as college coaches can be while their guys are spending large portions of the day in class and studying, limited by NCAA practice time regulations.
If a guy can get drafted and he's confident he can get a contract, it's almost always in his best interest to go pro. Then he gets to make money an extra year of his career and have an extra year of full-time professional basketball practice which can only help in the long run. If he ends up not lasting long in the league, it's because he just wasn't good enough. People always look at these things in hindsight but it's really hard to have a long career in the NBA. Another year in college wouldn't have helped his development more than that year in the pros.
Of course, as fans we'd love our best players to all stay four years for completely selfish reasons. But if we care at all about the players we have to trust that they're making the best decisions for themselves.
|45 weeks 1 day ago||Well said||
Nailed it with the analysis. Going from solid if only average Burke and Hardaway to more Stauskas and Spike/Walton has hurt. I think Walton will become just as good on defense or better than Burke when he figures out his spots but Stauskas is going to be a killer on the perimeter probably his whole career. His feet are just made of cement. Guys blow by him, require help and there are too many plays for the offense to make.
|45 weeks 1 day ago||We will likely be favored||
Kenpom has us by a point in that game and as the poster reminds below, we've prevailed over Sparty at Crisler for a few years in a row now. There's a remote chance we win there. I'll take that bet.
|45 weeks 2 days ago||Ace||
Penn State is 105th on KenPom, Northwestern is 156th. Might want to correct that. PSU is quite a bit better.
|45 weeks 3 days ago||It's extremely relevant||
It's one of the most relevant data points we have. The better analogy is valuing a stock. You can pore over financials all you want and analyze the revenue and profits of a company but you're only scratching the surface of the whole story.
Some of the best indicators of a company's future growth come from knowing the management team, being inside the board room, really understanding what the factors for success have been. This is why the best hedge funds and biggest mutual funds want access to the board room (and sometimes cross into the illegal side of information gathering).
There are also many different sucess factors for an offensive coordinator: how good are his position coaches, how much success is due to coaching vs. talent, what are the instiutional advantages he's had. We can look at a guys offensive performance but no one knows better than his coach how much he had to do with that success and how replaceable he is.
You wouldn't want to buy a stock if the CEO was dumping his shares, even if the company has been profitable and growing.
I think Nuss was a solid hire and tend to be right in line with the Mathlete's analysis. But you'd much rather the HC fight tooth and nail to keep a guy than think, eh, he's replaceable. That's why people care.
|45 weeks 6 days ago||So why trail and lock?||
If Michigan was switching that play (and I agree they were) why was Stauskas trailing and locking? If it's a switch, then Stauskas has to take Smith and at least put some effort into boxing out on the put back. He should only trail and lock if the plan is to fight through screens, right?
|3 years 15 hours ago||Schedule is no worse than this year||
ALA and ND will be very tough games but our conference schedule doesn't look any worse than this year. All of our home games are against solid teams that would be much more worrisome on the road. We get MINN and PUR on the road. They both looked improved toward the end but should be the worst two on the sched. The toughest game in div play will be at NEB but all others look imminently winnable. Even if we lose at Ohio theres a good chance we'd win tiebreakers at 6-2 like Wisco this year. I like our sched.
|3 years 9 weeks ago||Major Disclaimer:||
If you read the NOTE re: the rankings, FO says that the early season rankings are based mostly on raw data, unadjusted for opponent and heavily weighting preseason projections (which were probably heavily favorable for M given that we were #5 in this stat last year. So this pretty much means nothing at this point.
That said, we have been efficient in a low number of plays as mentioned in the comments. And our overall point and yardage total against a very good ND defense was impressive. Let's just hope that fourth quarter in which we racked up all those yards wasn't a fluke.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Pretty well actually||
They made two BCS bowls under Weis with two-loss teams that probably would have had more losses if they were in a good conference. The easier schedule allowed them to be in range to be picked by the BCS and they were because they are ND. Those are big payday's for an independent that doesn't need to share the money with a conference.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Seems like they are trying to expand into new markets...||
...since they are poaching a Texas team. Clemson or FSU make more sense geographically and from a rivalry standpoint, but I would imagine they want to expand geographically by adding Missouri or one of the Oklahoma schools.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Chunk is right||
We were favored in 2008. ND was coming off that horrific 3-9 season of their own and nobody could have imagined the disaster that was about to become of the 2008 UM team. Like he said, we lost a close game against a great Utah team (they weren't expected to go undefeated but were expected to be very good), and won against MIA (NTM). The wheels didnt really come off that season until after the UW game. And boy did they fly off.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Notice that he said eight year not eight game...||
It has been eight years. Techinically seven games but duration of 8 years.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||I agree that his best-case and worst case are little tight...||
especially considering his single game analysis. It seems like he didn't really consider those predictions in his total record predictions. If we lost all the games he considers us a toss-up or likely loss then we'd be 5-7, which is entirely possible. But if we win all those he considers a toss-up or likely win, we'd win 10 or 11 games. It's unlikely but I agree with you that that's a plausible best case.
But I disagree that he's too pessimistic. I think he's probably too optimistic. The MSU is probably not a toss-up. They have to have the edge in that game at home. So I think his 7-5 is a more likely scenario than 8-4 (and that's what Vegas thinks about the odds too).
|3 years 18 weeks ago||I hope you're right||
No one could see them beating us four years in a row but the first three have happened. It's in the past. They will likely be favored at home to make it four in a row. I shudder at the the thought.