Question for MgoBoard's Math experts that's been in my brain re: Joel Klatt's analysis.
It seems to me that Joel's analysis is all wrong for Washington's key to winning. Per Joel, Washington wants to increase the number of possessions because Washington's "big play" ability.
But, that--to me--is not the right analysis. Like Vegas wins by the law of large numbers and increase number of bets, the better team normally wants the greater # of possessions. But, Joel is positing that Michigan is the better team (i.e., more ways to win). Joel's analysis fails to consider that: a) each team gets basically the same number of possessions; and b) that each possession results in limited upside (i.e., 0, 3 or 7) (i.e., no possession results in a "big play" (e.g., 45 yard pass) getting 7 points and a small play (e.g., 3 yard run) getting only 3. Joel's analysis is good IF each possession got only one play. But, that's not how it works.
Note: tattoo is Spartan stepping on some random furry animal wearing a Mizzou Tiger helmet. No doubt the player mistakenly thinks that he has a wolverine wearing a M helmet. But, uhhhh, M has a winged helmet; whereas, Mizzou has the "M" on its helmet. Sparty No!!
Right, but betrayal of the alliance can’t happen too soon. Still, way too many turns left, considering the balance of power among many teams. But, it will increase the longer each team waits. The incentive to keep the alliances is greater with the bigger teams, like NE, FL, and UM. Temptation to break it is greater with the smaller teams early because smaller teams know they can’t make a late push. Still, smaller teams know they need the bigger teams and to go rogue risks quick doom by old enemies and the ones you just betrayed. This will get interesting.
Having played the real game of Risk MANY times, including making alliances with multiple players, I totally appreciate this concern. Yet, I also think it's worth the "risk" as we have other strategic concerns that are greater.
It looks nice, but I really only need one. And, I wear it sparingly as I live in Chicago area where lots of different opinions are expressed to riders. Being on the road with angry rival fans in cars is a precarous position that I don't enjoy. So, I normally just wear uncontroversial jerseys.
Incidentally, I raced in the Grand Rapids Tri a week or so ago and I saw lots of M tri kits. Very nice. I passed one M triathlete on the bike and she assured me that she was going to hold off the IL triathlete that was immediately behind her. And, I passed another M triathlete on the run and had a little more time to talk. Apparently, he either was too tire to consider it or was not aware that Ty Isaac had recently committed to the football team. So, I just kept going.
Space, I read much of the football content on MgoBlog, although I very seldom post.
I really appreciate your posts and your football insights/input. It makes reading the football-related stuff much more interesting, especially for a non-football person like me. Well done.
I recognize that it's too early to get nervous, but I'm still getting nervous. I know that recruits are probably waiting and lots of things happened this year that more time should solve, but I'm still getting nervous.
That was really cool. I watched it multiple times already. I appreciate our obssessed and talented fanbase.
Recommendations [because you requested.] -- 1) I think you should put "This film is not yet rated."; and 2) it's difficult to see the blue "Warning", although i like the idea of putting it in blue, it's just too hard to see the word ... I had to actually stop the film to see what it said.
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Question for MgoBoard's Math experts that's been in my brain re: Joel Klatt's analysis.
It seems to me that Joel's analysis is all wrong for Washington's key to winning. Per Joel, Washington wants to increase the number of possessions because Washington's "big play" ability.
But, that--to me--is not the right analysis. Like Vegas wins by the law of large numbers and increase number of bets, the better team normally wants the greater # of possessions. But, Joel is positing that Michigan is the better team (i.e., more ways to win). Joel's analysis fails to consider that: a) each team gets basically the same number of possessions; and b) that each possession results in limited upside (i.e., 0, 3 or 7) (i.e., no possession results in a "big play" (e.g., 45 yard pass) getting 7 points and a small play (e.g., 3 yard run) getting only 3. Joel's analysis is good IF each possession got only one play. But, that's not how it works.
Thoughts?
Argh, I just saw that it's Miss.
Seth, amazing tool. Thanks.
I didn't see Ole Miss (who plays Oklahoma in the first round). ???
My bracket's success is dependent on Seth's Bracket Tool.
Welcome back. I missed this segment.
Wow, that's funnier every time I look at it. Well done.
Note: tattoo is Spartan stepping on some random furry animal wearing a Mizzou Tiger helmet. No doubt the player mistakenly thinks that he has a wolverine wearing a M helmet. But, uhhhh, M has a winged helmet; whereas, Mizzou has the "M" on its helmet. Sparty No!!
Right, but betrayal of the alliance can’t happen too soon. Still, way too many turns left, considering the balance of power among many teams. But, it will increase the longer each team waits. The incentive to keep the alliances is greater with the bigger teams, like NE, FL, and UM. Temptation to break it is greater with the smaller teams early because smaller teams know they can’t make a late push. Still, smaller teams know they need the bigger teams and to go rogue risks quick doom by old enemies and the ones you just betrayed. This will get interesting.
Done. Thanks.
I'm still confused on this "explore links" thing. It seems easy once you know what it is, but I can't figure out how or what links to explore.
Having played the real game of Risk MANY times, including making alliances with multiple players, I totally appreciate this concern. Yet, I also think it's worth the "risk" as we have other strategic concerns that are greater.
Right. When I googled Akron mascot, It came up with some sort of bird. Being a Block M supporter, I like the "Z".
Also, my action was to Defend Akron. How do it do that? I'm not sure what Akron's logo is, if I click on their mascot in the Action section.
I just joined the Discord, and it asked me to respond to this thread. What's next to get invited/approved to join Discord?
Iron man tattoo, even a more extravagant one like my picture.
Logged in to ask you to post more often.
I love watching Michigan beat Florida. I can watch this game over and over.
It looks nice, but I really only need one. And, I wear it sparingly as I live in Chicago area where lots of different opinions are expressed to riders. Being on the road with angry rival fans in cars is a precarous position that I don't enjoy. So, I normally just wear uncontroversial jerseys.
Incidentally, I raced in the Grand Rapids Tri a week or so ago and I saw lots of M tri kits. Very nice. I passed one M triathlete on the bike and she assured me that she was going to hold off the IL triathlete that was immediately behind her. And, I passed another M triathlete on the run and had a little more time to talk. Apparently, he either was too tire to consider it or was not aware that Ty Isaac had recently committed to the football team. So, I just kept going.
Space, I read much of the football content on MgoBlog, although I very seldom post.
I really appreciate your posts and your football insights/input. It makes reading the football-related stuff much more interesting, especially for a non-football person like me. Well done.
This is Michigan ... fergodsakes.
Is it time to re-think Alabama's vaulted rankings?
I recognize that it's too early to get nervous, but I'm still getting nervous. I know that recruits are probably waiting and lots of things happened this year that more time should solve, but I'm still getting nervous.
That was really cool. I watched it multiple times already. I appreciate our obssessed and talented fanbase.
Recommendations [because you requested.] -- 1) I think you should put "This film is not yet rated."; and 2) it's difficult to see the blue "Warning", although i like the idea of putting it in blue, it's just too hard to see the word ... I had to actually stop the film to see what it said.
I'm eager to see those highlights repeated in the winged helmet.
It seems like our 3-man DLine bend / don't break strategy is working against the run.
Sweet.