chance of bowl: 13.6%
- Member for
- 2 years 5 weeks
- View recent blog entries
|1 year 13 weeks ago||didn't mean to blame the spread||
And I didn't mean to say that pro stylen (or boring) was a better.
But from looking at the numbers, Carr was under appreciated. That was my main point.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||Thanks for finding that mistake||
It has been corrected. Harbaugh got hurt in 1984, not 1983.
|1 year 36 weeks ago||win pct||
I stayed away from win percentage because it doesn't account for strength of schedule. A 7-6 Big Ten team is different from a 7-6 Big East team. The team ratings I used account for strength of schedule. You could probably use any decent ranking algorithm though.
|1 year 36 weeks ago||link to SI.com article||
First, the link.
Second, the method. I took a 4 year window of Rivals ratings and used regression to predict the next year's ratings by my algorithm. For example, the 2009 through 2012 recruiting ratings are fit to the team ratings for the 2012 season. The regression calculates a best fit to the team performance from 2005 through 2012.
Third, whether you think 46 of 100 team is impressive is up to you.
|1 year 36 weeks ago||no doubt those factors matter||
Those factors, such as better coaches, better facilities, certainly affect the type of recruits a school gets. Think of the recruiting ratings as some kind of aggregate indicator of all these factors.
In the big picture, I wasn't trying to isolate the effect of getting better recruits. Should leave that to the Mathlete. I just wanted to ask how far one could get based on the number of points Rivals assigned each team each year.
|1 year 37 weeks ago||How to beat Michigan||
1. Stauskus and Robinson don't hit threes
2. Get behind in the second half
3. Burke and Hardaway try to do everything themselves with 1 on 1 moves
It's just human nature that stars want to single handedly bring their team back when behind. Anyone who has ever played a pick up game knows that. But it's not the most efficient way to crawl back in the game. Better drive and kick, and keep shooting.
Michigan takes the rematch because of the low likelihood they get behind Indiana in A2. I hope and actually believe their defensive intensity will be higher as well.
|1 year 37 weeks ago||pissed me off||
That was a punk move. A flashy dunk when no one is on the court is guarding you is moronic. McGary should have fouled the shit out of him, good ol' Bill Lambeer style.
|1 year 38 weeks ago||hmm, Bradley Terry model||
That's the same crap that Peter Wolfe uses in his college football rankings that are a part of the BCS. While it's not as bad as other BCS polls (like Billingsley), I do think it gives extra weight to teams that have played more games. That shouldn't matter in college basketball though. Still, it's advisable to use margin of victory. No, mandatory.
|1 year 38 weeks ago||a numbers game||
Brian is just playing the odds. He knows that the likelihood that Michigan wins it all heading into the tourney is probably less than 10%. And those odds will be about as large as any team gets (Florida will be higher, most likely). Everyone is right to be excited about this team, and who wouldn't be with Burke kicking out to some deadly shooters. But Brian is rightfully trying to temper the enthusiam.
|1 year 38 weeks ago||Neutral site games == $$$$$$||
Jim Delany has Gene Smith doing his dirty work of talking up profit making ideas in front of the media. He's learned that whole delegation thing.
|1 year 47 weeks ago||Stanford's defense on mgoblog?? Miracles do happen.||
I never thought I'd see the day that Stanford's defense would be held up as a model unit. On a Michigan blog. Miracles do happen.
Stanford's defense is vastly improved this year. You could see it in the spring game. It's a lot like the miracles that Mattison has performed here. Players improve, schemes are good, defense looks great. Of course, it also helps that they faced an overrated freshman Oregon QB.
|1 year 47 weeks ago||Ohio State pass protection||
I just don't understand how Ohio State can be so bad at pass protection. If you look at sack rate (sacks / (pass attempts + sacks)), their 8.8% is 112th in the nation. Even worse that the 88th you quote. Last year, their sack rate was 15.8%, worst in the nation.
If the defense plays up to potential, Devin plays a good game and the turnover gods don't piss on us, we have a good shot of winning this game. Very close to 50-50 on the road.
|1 year 48 weeks ago||Pac-12 not necessarily going to expand||
They had the chance to eat the better half of the Big 12 last year. For whatever reason, it didn't happen. While 16 team conferences seem likely, nothing is for certain.
|1 year 48 weeks ago||Hard to predict the future of media||
I think it's certain that the B1G is making cash in the short term. I would love to come back to these previous two comments 10 years from now. For the record, I can't live without cable as a sports fan.
|2 years 4 weeks ago||Who needs ESPN to chart stuff?||
Great analysis. There isn't too large a sample size in the ACE, but the results have been good so far.
Michigan's passing numbers have looked good so far this year. Looking for continued improvement as they face the better pass defenses of Notre Dame and Michigan State.
|2 years 5 weeks ago||the 6 percent||
I would state this 6% a different way. Given the uncertainty in knowing the true pass completion percentages for shotgun and under center, there's a 6% chance that Denard is actually better in the shotgun than under center. Or there's a 94% likelihood that ESPN is right and Denard throws better from under center.
Randomness and luck as Brian states it are the same, as I see it.