Great post and love the analytics. I worry though you may be mixing up your cause and effect. Isn't it likely that having a bad offense leads to more 2PJ rather than 2PJs leading to bad offenses?
He has to sign a document that would prevent him from playing basketball for any other NCAA school. He can sign it now or he can wait and sign it later - the upside is the exact same, assuming Michigan is holding his spot. It's a smart move to wait - doesn't mean anything about his commitment.
Listening to the podcast, Jon’s point is that the team and the Michigan athletic communities rallies around and fully supports it’s sick and injured athletes. They are rallying around Ambry like they did with Grant. I don’t think Jon was implying anything about the severity or expected absence.
I'm ok with this. Crisler would've been dead for a game vs Rutgers, especially because it probably would've been in January or February in the middle of the week. You can't underestimate the number of NYC based alums, especially young professionals. Anytime Michigan sports plays a game in NYC, it is a big deal to them. You engage your fanbase, get $$ and the players get to play in MSG. This is Rutgers - not a big game. To me this is more akin to playing some low or mid level P5 team in an early season OOC tournament.
4 x 15 team conferences. round robin 14 game regular season. No out of conference games, no conference championship games. You play every team in your conference every year. Conference winner is best record, tie breaker is margin of victory (capped at 28 points per game). Winner of each conference plays the second place team in another conference with the first place team at home. Winner of those games go to semis at neutral sights. Third through Eighth place teams play same place finisher in other conferences in bowl games.
Each conference is affiliated with a lower tier conference with 16-18 teams. First place team from lower tier gets automatically promoted. Second and Third place team from lower tier have a playoff game for promotion. Last place in upper tier gets demoted and thirteenth and fourteenth place have a playoff, loser gets demoted.
Like the idea. Not really fair to judge soccer solely on penalties though. They do play an extra 30 minutes (which is an extra 1/3 of a game) before resorting to that.
this is only a good idea if the conference goes to two divisions with promotion and relegation. no way that is happening because we cant have anything nice but man that would be fun!
If Warriner did everything he could to report the DV, then he stays. Anybody who protected Smith's interests over that of the victim should not be employed by a university, especially the University of Michigan. To say otherwise is hypocritical.
Quite plausibly all he could have done at the time was report it to the head football coach, especially if that coach assured him that it was being handled. Obtaining the facts will be difficult, but at a minimum, I would expect the athletic department and Harbaugh to be asking him some tough questions.
The real problem is that these championship games (one random game) decide conference champions. NCAA should have conference champions in their playoffs and put it to their conferences to figure out how to do a better job of deciding their conference winners. Can you imagine if a Bo team won a B10 championship but another team went to the rose bowl because some Very Important People thought the other team was "better". Just because conferences screwed the pooch doesn't mean the NCAA should start picking teams out of their asses. The best playoff is a championship of champions. The real issue is the champions as currently being determined are crappy because the conferences broke themselves trying to get all the Cable Subscribers.
I'm still nervous about our QB situation. Jury is still out as to how Speight performs when a D can stop our run game without committing 9 to the box. Only Wisconsin could do that to date. Our defense can hold anyone below 20 but am nervous our offense is not balanced enough to score that many against elite defenses.
Speights QB rating is really good but think that is more of a testament to our run game, who we played and harbaugh calling harbaugh plays.
Really like this post every week. Can you add field position per drive? If I understand these stats right this would give us the expected points per drive and a better understanding of actual field position since my guess is we are on the lower end of total possessions each week this skewing our ranking in the field position category
It would be interesting if instead of protected rivals they did like the NFL does:
You play the two teams that finished in the same place in the pod the previous year. So if you win your pod, the next year you play your seven divisional games and then the previous years winners of the other two pods.
However, I think that M and OSU need to be in the same pod, for the same arguments this site as made for keeping them in the same division. I would essentially switch OSU and ND.
Pod A Pod B Pod CPod D
Minnesota Michigan Notre Dame East 1
Wisconsin MSU Northwestern East 2
Iowa OSU Illinois PSU
Nebraska Indiana Purdue East 3
The horizontal groupings are the teams that would play every year, even if the pods are not paired as divisions.
Recent Comments
Great post and love the analytics. I worry though you may be mixing up your cause and effect. Isn't it likely that having a bad offense leads to more 2PJ rather than 2PJs leading to bad offenses?
He has to sign a document that would prevent him from playing basketball for any other NCAA school. He can sign it now or he can wait and sign it later - the upside is the exact same, assuming Michigan is holding his spot. It's a smart move to wait - doesn't mean anything about his commitment.
Listening to the podcast, Jon’s point is that the team and the Michigan athletic communities rallies around and fully supports it’s sick and injured athletes. They are rallying around Ambry like they did with Grant. I don’t think Jon was implying anything about the severity or expected absence.
I'm ok with this. Crisler would've been dead for a game vs Rutgers, especially because it probably would've been in January or February in the middle of the week. You can't underestimate the number of NYC based alums, especially young professionals. Anytime Michigan sports plays a game in NYC, it is a big deal to them. You engage your fanbase, get $$ and the players get to play in MSG. This is Rutgers - not a big game. To me this is more akin to playing some low or mid level P5 team in an early season OOC tournament.
4 x 15 team conferences. round robin 14 game regular season. No out of conference games, no conference championship games. You play every team in your conference every year. Conference winner is best record, tie breaker is margin of victory (capped at 28 points per game). Winner of each conference plays the second place team in another conference with the first place team at home. Winner of those games go to semis at neutral sights. Third through Eighth place teams play same place finisher in other conferences in bowl games.
Each conference is affiliated with a lower tier conference with 16-18 teams. First place team from lower tier gets automatically promoted. Second and Third place team from lower tier have a playoff game for promotion. Last place in upper tier gets demoted and thirteenth and fourteenth place have a playoff, loser gets demoted.
Like the idea. Not really fair to judge soccer solely on penalties though. They do play an extra 30 minutes (which is an extra 1/3 of a game) before resorting to that.
this is only a good idea if the conference goes to two divisions with promotion and relegation. no way that is happening because we cant have anything nice but man that would be fun!
If Warriner did everything he could to report the DV, then he stays. Anybody who protected Smith's interests over that of the victim should not be employed by a university, especially the University of Michigan. To say otherwise is hypocritical.
Quite plausibly all he could have done at the time was report it to the head football coach, especially if that coach assured him that it was being handled. Obtaining the facts will be difficult, but at a minimum, I would expect the athletic department and Harbaugh to be asking him some tough questions.
7 more saturdays without football. Make sure your wife uses them wisely
BANG BANG
This sounds like the luck metric on kenpom. “We expected you to win this many and you won more/less”. So I think a reversion to the mean is due for JH
I checked my mailbox and mine has not arrived
bangarang!
Thank god this blog works
Now get off my lawn.
Speights QB rating is really good but think that is more of a testament to our run game, who we played and harbaugh calling harbaugh plays.
is going on with recruiting these days?"
It would be interesting if instead of protected rivals they did like the NFL does:
You play the two teams that finished in the same place in the pod the previous year. So if you win your pod, the next year you play your seven divisional games and then the previous years winners of the other two pods.
I like the pods idea.
However, I think that M and OSU need to be in the same pod, for the same arguments this site as made for keeping them in the same division. I would essentially switch OSU and ND.
Pod A Pod B Pod C Pod D
Minnesota Michigan Notre Dame East 1
Wisconsin MSU Northwestern East 2
Iowa OSU Illinois PSU
Nebraska Indiana Purdue East 3
The horizontal groupings are the teams that would play every year, even if the pods are not paired as divisions.