That’s a chicken/egg statement. If you don’t invest success never comes. Never is a very strong statement in the current day as it would only take one very wealthy booster for a sport like WBB. Success begets success.
From an ROI perspective it might even be more attractive than football. The WNBA salary cap is less than $2m. For $3M/year you’d be capable of building a college level super team where your bench players are making WNBA super max money.
The sentence you refer to reeks of a NFL reporter trying to sound smart. Simply put - players won't hit the portal from now until the spring football phase because they realistically can't transfer in the middle of the academic calendar and be eligible for spring football at their new school. Trying to transfer now would likely jus be self sabotage.
Curious on what Mike Mac saw in Grubb though, he literally watched his own defensive scheme shut down Grubb's best effort to defeat it. Didn't seem like Washington had creative enough play design to beat the Amoeba.
This was always going to happen. It was a minor miracle that Jim was available at all. It's been very clear he's the "leave something better than you found it" guy and also a guy who after reaching the mountaintop leaves to go find a bigger mountain to climb.
QBs/Pass game I assume Campbell is gone as he was the JJ whisperer - ideally you use this space to poach a guy well versed in QB development
Newsome to OL
Elston to co-DC with Clink
Young ravens guy for LBs or S
There's more than enough older experience/career college guys on the staff now. Michigan will be saving money on the HC so in turn should direct money to hiring the best assistants money can buy, the proverbial Beyonces that can also coach.
Agreed that we overvalue our own guys however I do think Johnson is more likely to go closer to the 10-19 than 25+. Either way his #1 draft clip is going to be the OSU pick vs Marvin Harrison and the #2 clip will be the adjustment to the pick on Penix for us to enjoy.
In most cases Vegas has done the analysis and tries to make money on the vig to attract money on both sides. The line is set separately from the model. If their model is saying the 80% range of outcomes is Detroit +1 to Detroit -4 and money keeps coming in at Detroit -6.5 they can choose to keep the line steady and eventually develop a position.
As Mgrowold pointed out, this is exactly what happened to the Alabama game. Bets were running 60-70% on Alabama cover or Alabama moneyline and the line stubbornly did not move. Large amounts of sharp money came in all on Michigan in the 24 hours before kickoff which actually caused the line to move the other way but it looked like it was still a 55-45 Alabama-Michigan split. Books made a ton of money that day.
Except yes, that's how it works. Even if the plane repositions somewhere else Delta needed to add another short notice repositioning flight in.
As it is you can do see this info publicly in any number of places. DL8804 for example makes the return flight to DTW on Saturday and another A319 operating as DL8804 takes off from Detroit on Tuesday morning to operate the return leg of 8804.
You can even book travel on those legs, possibly the easiest FC upgrade you'll ever get.
As far as I can suss out TickPick turns around and uses your money to buy from wherever the ticket was originally listed. The way they make money is that they charge you a hidden markup.
If you can find the ticket listing on the original site you can likely buy it cheaper. The "No Fees" is an illusion, you're paying the fees + a unmarked fee to tickpick for the convenience factor. It's up to you if you want to reward their service in this way.
As an FYI - TickPick does not show you the actual cheapest get in price, it shows you the cheapest price if you use TickPick to purchase. The cheapest get in price is somewhere between 5-15% less but you’ll have to find the original listing for the tickets in question.
Delta is definitely gouging but not as much as you’d think, you’re effectively paying for double the flights as the plane is effectively flying completely empty back to DTW on the outbound days and then flying completely empty to Houston to return people home
Putting on my tinfoil hat: public perception/average price/price anchoring is driven by large reseller operations.
it’s easy to see on Ticketmaster, the 2 unaffiliated corners have just rows and rows of seats on the secondary market, the school allocation sections are way more expensive and tighter.
these operations essentially control the pricing, they’re happy to keep the price high on most of their seats while monitoring inventory.
the other problem is that there are a large amount of unrealistic individual sellers listing ok tickets for absurd prices, some over 5k a pop.
Tickpick is where I go see directional price info. Ticketmaster is also useful as it has by far the most listings and you can see the wide swathes of seats available.
As I mentioned before I expect this game to decline further and behave in a similar manner to the B1G championship game
assumptions:
Both fanbases while relatively large and affluent don’t have a huge Texas contingent
Longhorn fans speculatively drove the absurd prices up and created an artificially high perception for the floor
Lots of people already scared off or priced out of the game
tickets on the reseller market will be priced to move at some point - each ticket was a minimum of $475 face, not an enjoyable hit even if you’re a deep pocketed scalping operation
Right now both sides seem to be eying each other like they’re at a middle school dance. Supply is increasing as school allocation tickets are starting to show up from alumni trying to make a buck. I think it creates conditions for tickets to become steadily cheaper over the next 24-36 hours. After that… I personally believe they will probably tank further as sellers start to get desperate but there’s a good chance lots of people are waiting to buy given the price and will maintain a price floor with a shrinking supply.
Most ticket prices behave predictably. As of right now there are still somewhere around 6K tickets on the secondary market. It looks like about 1K tickets changed hands today but the supply actually slightly increased.
Friday will probably be when sellers start to get a little nervous, i'm waiting until then.
Get in price has hovered around 1200-1300 but if the market moves like i think it will you can probably get in for about 1-1.1K with taxes/fees included.
For this to be true you'd be saying their scout team which is likely 3rd stringers and walk ons are so good that they're kicking the first team offense's ass in practice, which is highly unlikely. If anything if the scout team defense is pretty good it's even more puzzling why the offense is so bad - they should be able to pick out the good plays (or least bad plays) and run them. An ineffective scout team has the opposite effect, sometimes through no fault of their own. The best example of this is attempting to have the scout team run a triple option offense. None of the players or coaches are probably that familiar with it so the defense likely dominates more than usual in practice. Then you face the service academy and you get gashed.
Anyways you're likely not even wasting the 2nd team D on this, they're getting about 25% of the snaps against the scout O and watching the first team on their own reps. The Iowa offense is likely going against freshmen and walk ons on Scout D and probably looking ok.
Brian Ferentz is not very good good at his job relative to most other offensive college football coaches. That's not the same as being a complete moron.
Fees are insane in many places, over $50 when I checked.
I wish ticketwatch still existed, I’ve held off buying for my group because tickets have fallen about 70% in value and I think it will fall more. Still over 5000 tickets on the public secondary market which is huge considering it’s in 2 days.
Having people filming the entire game is just weird. If a guy sitting directly in front of you is taking an iphone video of the entire game and he's zoomed in on the sideline signs the entire time you'd probably have some questions. It's only a matter of time until someone who knows someone notices and starts an investigation. Guy was dumb enough to purchase tickets in his own name and use his own venmo.
All he had to do were 3 easy things to leave virtually no tracks:
PO box in central Ohio that he never checks to use as an address
Ticketmaster giftcards purchased using a Visa giftcard
A burner email to facilitate payment to his vast network via Paypal or e-giftcard
A burner pay as you go phone that never connects to wireless would probably also help. He's not evading the government, he's evading the dipshit NCAA and Ohio State. This guy was incredibly dumb.
Seth, apologies for the potential dumb question but have you tried just contacting their corporate leadership and board's email addresses (all on copy) letting them know they're likely victims of click fraud and referencing this thread about the negative sentiment it's generating?
if there's one thing C-level execs don't like it's a potential board member actually asking questions about what they're doing. While it's possible their intent is to piss off otherwise neutral people I'm guessing they're getting gamed as well. Occam's razor is that their head of marketing thought they found a super low cost way of running full page ads and didn't ask a lot of questions. Clicks are up, impressions are up, so why ask bothersome questions on why conversion is not up?
The thing is, they might also getting ripped off too. Large ads like that that are impossible to get rid of get a bunch of accidental or frustration clicks. Of course their conversion is probably super low but they're probably run by a person who either doesn't know or doesn't want to know how to actually effectively market. Clicks are up baby!
Anyways since it's in most company's benefit to not enrage potential customers needlessly it's probably some form of publisher (and not Mgoblog) click fraud.
What I don't understand about people like you is what drives your obsession. Based on your comments in this thread alone it seems like you should address whatever it is in your life that makes you want to convince others that Brenda Tracy was out to get Mel Tucker.
Regardless of Tracy's motivations it seems clear that Mel made extremely dumb decisions and based on his actions is maybe one level above pond scum. So what motivates a person like you to identify with him and want to protect him, and on a Michigan site?
I eagerly await your screed on how Trevor Bauer was also a good guy.
Much like Iowa itself, i think it's funny that you're producing better content about Iowa football's quest for 25 average points than actual Iowa websites. Fitting
Loeffler kicked field goals on fourth and two and fourth and one in the first half. You're a 40-point underdog! Grab life by the collar and shake it until it gives you quarters! What are we even doing here if we're not trying to win a football game?
Obviously we are trying to cover the spread
Re: Tackles. I see the massive upside that Hinton has, I also see way too many negatives. I have to believe that the cupcake schedule was letting him try and win the job but it's leading to more exposure and pressure on JJ and needs to be shelved. We are well on our way to Hinton being a Joe Bolden memorial great in practice guy.
Pace is somewhat of a concern. Michigan looks to be affected far more by the new clock rules as our drives are somewhat grindy. The new clock rules look to be worth about a minute of game clock on an 3-4 first down type drive, over the course of the game this might be 1-2 ancillary posessions.
On the other hand the foot has come off the gas very early. Blowouts tend to accelerate late as you hit big plays you've set up with other actions early. Michigan is getting games over with as fast as possible with backups.
Point: It is early in the season, they don't want to show things on tape until they need to. The playbook is more basic. They clearly want to emphasize or work on certain plays and are using this period as an extended fall camp. We likely aren't running the same play 5 straight times against OSU in a goal to go situation.
Counterpoint: This staff has shown a historical tendency to just light plays on fire or in a Debord light situation run bad plays to set up incredibly obvious plays later. It's beyond me why this continues to be an issue.
Listen man, it was almost certainly something on his transcript. He did get into Michigan, the requirement was that he attend summer bridge which is what happens when there's a concern about the college transition. This isn't a foreign concept to the football team, many recruits come in during the summer and are a part of bridge. Early Enrolees usually have relatively good test scores/transcripts. It's hard to believe that the football staff didn't know that this would be an issue.
At the end of the day people who work for Michigan aren't out to get these kids and screw the football team. Admissions would be the first people to tell you that having a successful football team is a huge competitive advantage to schools they view themselves competing against for students.
We've gone to the point where admissions is eating flak for other departments. There's also a very clear difference between high school admissions, transfer admissions, and grad school admissions.
I don't know how much things have changed since I left but it was a poorly kept secret that the athletics department got a certain amount of leeway/hall passes to use on recruits that were academically risky and that revenue sports got the lion's share of that. The shadier the situation, the more attention it would naturally get. The administrators in athletics have a dual job, to monitor and project what the incoming class looks like academically and to make sure that it's clear to the family what it will take to come into the class. RichRod was famously completely unprepared for this environment and there was resistance to operating like WVU. Harbaugh's staff has shown that they are on top of this and I'm inclined to believe this was almost certainly an issue on Worthy's side than someone at Michigan deciding to screw this kid over.
I for one am now wishing Jonas Mouton was in fact a Muton. While Mutons may not have sufficient lateral quickness I'm sure he would have made for a triple team destroying nose tackle.
I mean. Sure. Either way ever since the investigation came out it's damning for Fitz.
Option 1: he knew the entire time. Bad for obvious reasons
Option 2: he only partially knew, or didn't know. Damning that he has so little knowledge and control over pervasive actions attitudes of the team.
It's a football team. Upperclassmen aren't going to go rogue and systemically abuse freshmen without the implicit approval of the coaching staff, and there's no amount of willful blindness to cover that up.
I'm almost as disgusted with the stupidity of NW/Fitz to try and claim otherwise.
I could see objections to Cal and Stanford as not being really additive to the B1G outside of alumni relations. If they join their "home" games will be filled with original B1g alumni living on the west coast. While I'm sure they'd enjoy that I don't know what the rest of the conference really gets. The Pac-12 hilariously failed to make SF care about college sports for 10+ years.
Oregon and Washington would be nice but they come with baggage - their meddling legislatures will want their Michigan State like Ag schools to come along for the ride and there's just no way the B1g will want WSU or OSU (NTOSU)
While that is an important distinction it has become increasingly difficult if not impossible to disentangle as select politicians promote those discriminatory world views without consequence. When the political orientation itself embraces conspiracy theories and discriminatory actions what do you do?
The funniest and saddest thing is that they actually could do a reasonable job of controlling it with device management software. Of course, they would probably need to classify the athletes as employees in that case to install those controls.
championship level teams don't select at 12 at all. I hate that the lions took the 2nd RB that high.
I'm a little more forgiving on the #18 pick, outside of the top 10ish I think there are two types of players, extreme boom/bust types or high floor guys. I think it's unreasonable to expect every pick in the 15-25 range to be an elite NFL talent. Campbell probably will not be an elite NFL linebacker but if he's a solid starter through his rookie deal i think that meets expectations for the pick.
I've learned that I can simply spend 90 minutes doing something else, start the game, skip all commercials and halftime, and in general be caught up with the action sometime in the 4th quarter.
Living on the west coast really changes your sports viewing experience and this method made it easier to watch those noon eastern games.
The A's had a change in ownership away from the moneyball guy and what's left unsaid is that they've gotten if anything even cheaper. The Fisher family as a whole doesn't get enough bad press for running things deeper into the ground and then trying to force the city of Oakland to pay for the stadium.
This was always going to happen. Sorry to the A's fans but Oakland was never going to keep any of their teams because the new wealth uniformly chose SF over Oakland.
I think that even if it's just $2M over 2 years at age 22 that's life changing money and anyone on this board saying that they wouldn't do it is lying to their age-22 selves. These are the same people who would criticize the move if he were offered $40M or $400M
As for where that dawg in him went that's easy, I think he's been advised repeatedly, even by this fanbase, that he has next to 0 chance of sticking on an NBA roster because he lacks and likely cannot develop the athleticism to be worth investing in. If he continues to play basketball and put miles on his body it'll be for relatively low wages overseas. Look at Kofi Cockburn, i bet that guy wishes he had stayed for the NIL derby that's happening now instead of playing in the worst team in the Japan league.
The player going 6th overall in any draft should be an exceptional player at a position of need. If Aiden Hutchinson was in this draft there's a good chance he would have fallen to the 6th pick given the QB situations with the top 3-4 picks. Carter has higher upside but the downside risk is huge.
I'd rather have one of the highly rated CBs that don't have all sorts of personality red flags if Anderson isn't available
it's not just a show for children, it's an entire franchise for children.
Here's my hottest take: The original trilogy is good but was propelled to nostalgic glory by the special effects. Everything that has happened afterwards was built on quicksand and we are seeing the effects.
It's hard to suspend disbelief time after time when the backgrounds and settings are entirely one dimensional and completely disposable. Entire planets are one faceted. The desert planet. The ice planet. The jungle planet. The planet with beaches. Inevitably each place feels like some sort of small village instead of this vast universe of trillions of people. The extremely dangerous opponent ends up being a bunch of bumbling idiots almost every time they appear on screen.
Andor is the exception that proves the rule and even that show plays fast and loose with common sense rules.
I've turned into the old man yelling at a cloud. I don't get why people race to post news that they didn't generate themselves. Doubly so when it's tangential fairly unimportant news like this.
It's like they're the same people who play music loudly over bluetooth speakers in public.
So I don't think you can use pure win % to map it all out, in both sports due to cupcake/nonconference scheduling anything under .500 would be an outright disaster. There's a feelingsball number likely at around .750 in football and .650 in basketball for a season to be considered "good" - ranked in the top 25.
Then there are other feelings based things to consider: How much is each win in the NCAA tournament worth? How much is it worth even getting to the tourney? Is/Was a NYE/BCS bowl better than the Outback Bowl? How much weight should be placed on OSU etc.
To that end I developed a quick model to tell us whether or not a season was "good", tentatively named StAUsKAS - (STatistical Analysis Using Known AdjustmentS)
Wins and losses are the starting point
In Football: OSU win/loss worth 2 games. +1 win if BCS/NY6/Playoff.
A season that ended up with an adjusted winrate of .750 or above is a success.
In Basketball: Making the NCAA tourney is 2 wins. Each first weekend win is worth 1 additional win, each regional victory is worth 4 wins, each final 4 victory is worth 8 wins
BTT win is worth an additional win.
Why not count big ten titles? it turned out to be unnecessary, if a team was good enough to win the regular season title it was going to be considered successful without the help of modifiers
It was necessary to make some feelingsball adjustments on top for basketball
08-09 basketball is a success due to the NCAA Tournament appearance
Ditto 10-11
05-06 and 02-03 basketball considered unsuccessful - final winning percentages are inflated by NIT runs and weak non-con schedules
I only went back to the 2000 season, roughly around the start of the blog.
StAUsKAS:
The tally is:
7 years of deep sadness and soul searching
4 years of relative happiness:
2011-2012, Brady Hoke's Sugar Bowl false hope and a 4-seed in the tournament that ultimately lead to Caris Levert.
2015-16 and 16-17 Harbaugh's first 2 seasons and peak Beilien
2018 - may need to be adjusted due to the absolute blowout of an OSU game.
6 years each of one team being clearly superior. Football was dominant until Rich Rod took over. Basketball shouldered the load until Harbaugh came.
So that's 12/23 years of one team being a head and shoulders above the other. If we assign even more weight to OSU losses and turn 2015. 2016, and 2018 into basketball dominant years a clear trend emerges but I'd think that an average Big Ten fan would consider those years successful.
I will go contrary to the majority of people and say there are definite times to use a travel agent, especially for your situation in Alaska.
If your intent is to fly to Anchorage, then everyone else is correct. If you're flying to one of the other relatively big cities in Alaska like Nome, Fairbanks, or Juneau its likely your only realistic option is Alaskan so you might as well book directly through them.
IF however you need to fly to any of the tiny airports in Alaska... that's the time to consult a travel agent.
that was the only late game time management item that was handled correctly. Correctly held onto them after 1st down, giving up 7 yards on 2nd to set up 3rd and 1 meant that TCU would likely get it, so might as well save them for the next set.
The real problem was the lack of urgency in the drive right before where they scored a TD but ate up too much clock to do it. If the situation was reversed it feels like TCU would have used maybe 1/3 of the time that Michigan did on that drive.
Michigan was a good second half team not because of the feelingsball "oh we wore them out" or "oh we made good adjustments". Michigan was a second half team because they would try to get away with doing the minimum possible to win in the first half and when that didn't work, pulled out the actual offensive playbook.
We've all seen the relative lack of respect Michigan gives schools like Rutgers that lets them hang around for much longer than they should. This time it finally came back to bite them in the ass in the goal to go situations. Michigan has fucked around a lot and finally they found out.
It's doubtful that Michigan would have gotten a top flight QB target pre-season when almost all of them had committed. If Cade had won the job he's got the profile of a CFB lifer. If JJ wins the job, well, it's better but they definitely won't start as a freshman. Even if they don't land a 4-5* heir apparent next year they can likely entice a Rudock type from the portal to tide them over.
WR is a similar-ish story. Look at UM's depth chart, it's stacked with WRs. Combined with how the staff uses WRs and it's an uphill battle before NIL or the Gattis departure are factored in. Based on the actions of the staff it looks like they'd rather lock down athletic TEs and hope that a raw WR will develop in a couple of years.
Losing Gattis hurt on the recruiting trail but it's pretty clear that Michigan's complex run-first game plan was not developed by Gattis. Looking at Miami's offensive results indicates that maybe Gattis isn't the offensive genius some think he is.
Pistol formation frustrating as always. Auto check blitzes into it are also annoying. The dumbest part of all of it is if an opponent is smart enough to know you're setting up tendencies for a reason and prepare for it. Then you've set a bunch of downs on fire for absolutely no reason.
As for the motion/non motion, i distinctly remember Michigan passing out of motion sets later in the game, I think there's a strong bias for run, especially out of TE motion but its not 100%.
I think he was bad at his job at Michigan. I also think that his analysis is pretty good.
Devin Gardner summed it up perfectly in one of the videos. Borges wants to be right more than he wants to get it right. His play concepts weren't bad but the team that he had couldn't execute. Ultimately he failed because he couldn't successfully coach a team to execute the concepts that he wanted to run and/or that he couldn't adapt his scheme to fit the players he had.
But watching a game and explaining concepts is something that he can easily do.
Recent Comments
I’m actually amazed at how well our logic tracks down to the amount you’d have to pay per player.
That’s a chicken/egg statement. If you don’t invest success never comes. Never is a very strong statement in the current day as it would only take one very wealthy booster for a sport like WBB. Success begets success.
From an ROI perspective it might even be more attractive than football. The WNBA salary cap is less than $2m. For $3M/year you’d be capable of building a college level super team where your bench players are making WNBA super max money.
What is more likely: that your view of Harrison is biased or that all the reporting by NFL insiders is wrong?
I dislike that he's a buckeye but he more than passed the eye test in his NCAA career.
The sentence you refer to reeks of a NFL reporter trying to sound smart. Simply put - players won't hit the portal from now until the spring football phase because they realistically can't transfer in the middle of the academic calendar and be eligible for spring football at their new school. Trying to transfer now would likely jus be self sabotage.
Curious on what Mike Mac saw in Grubb though, he literally watched his own defensive scheme shut down Grubb's best effort to defeat it. Didn't seem like Washington had creative enough play design to beat the Amoeba.
This was always going to happen. It was a minor miracle that Jim was available at all. It's been very clear he's the "leave something better than you found it" guy and also a guy who after reaching the mountaintop leaves to go find a bigger mountain to climb.
There's more than enough older experience/career college guys on the staff now. Michigan will be saving money on the HC so in turn should direct money to hiring the best assistants money can buy, the proverbial Beyonces that can also coach.
None of the jobs matter, he's going to be in one of 3 places:
Agreed that we overvalue our own guys however I do think Johnson is more likely to go closer to the 10-19 than 25+. Either way his #1 draft clip is going to be the OSU pick vs Marvin Harrison and the #2 clip will be the adjustment to the pick on Penix for us to enjoy.
You're incorrect in this case.
In most cases Vegas has done the analysis and tries to make money on the vig to attract money on both sides. The line is set separately from the model. If their model is saying the 80% range of outcomes is Detroit +1 to Detroit -4 and money keeps coming in at Detroit -6.5 they can choose to keep the line steady and eventually develop a position.
As Mgrowold pointed out, this is exactly what happened to the Alabama game. Bets were running 60-70% on Alabama cover or Alabama moneyline and the line stubbornly did not move. Large amounts of sharp money came in all on Michigan in the 24 hours before kickoff which actually caused the line to move the other way but it looked like it was still a 55-45 Alabama-Michigan split. Books made a ton of money that day.
Except yes, that's how it works. Even if the plane repositions somewhere else Delta needed to add another short notice repositioning flight in.
As it is you can do see this info publicly in any number of places. DL8804 for example makes the return flight to DTW on Saturday and another A319 operating as DL8804 takes off from Detroit on Tuesday morning to operate the return leg of 8804.
You can even book travel on those legs, possibly the easiest FC upgrade you'll ever get.
As far as I can suss out TickPick turns around and uses your money to buy from wherever the ticket was originally listed. The way they make money is that they charge you a hidden markup.
If you can find the ticket listing on the original site you can likely buy it cheaper. The "No Fees" is an illusion, you're paying the fees + a unmarked fee to tickpick for the convenience factor. It's up to you if you want to reward their service in this way.
As an FYI - TickPick does not show you the actual cheapest get in price, it shows you the cheapest price if you use TickPick to purchase. The cheapest get in price is somewhere between 5-15% less but you’ll have to find the original listing for the tickets in question.
Supply looks to still be increasing.
im seeing quite a lot of chicanery from the resellers moving prices and listings around. I’m sticking to my guns and waiting for the dam to break
Delta is definitely gouging but not as much as you’d think, you’re effectively paying for double the flights as the plane is effectively flying completely empty back to DTW on the outbound days and then flying completely empty to Houston to return people home
Putting on my tinfoil hat: public perception/average price/price anchoring is driven by large reseller operations.
it’s easy to see on Ticketmaster, the 2 unaffiliated corners have just rows and rows of seats on the secondary market, the school allocation sections are way more expensive and tighter.
these operations essentially control the pricing, they’re happy to keep the price high on most of their seats while monitoring inventory.
the other problem is that there are a large amount of unrealistic individual sellers listing ok tickets for absurd prices, some over 5k a pop.
Tickpick is where I go see directional price info. Ticketmaster is also useful as it has by far the most listings and you can see the wide swathes of seats available.
As I mentioned before I expect this game to decline further and behave in a similar manner to the B1G championship game
assumptions:
Right now both sides seem to be eying each other like they’re at a middle school dance. Supply is increasing as school allocation tickets are starting to show up from alumni trying to make a buck. I think it creates conditions for tickets to become steadily cheaper over the next 24-36 hours. After that… I personally believe they will probably tank further as sellers start to get desperate but there’s a good chance lots of people are waiting to buy given the price and will maintain a price floor with a shrinking supply.
Most ticket prices behave predictably. As of right now there are still somewhere around 6K tickets on the secondary market. It looks like about 1K tickets changed hands today but the supply actually slightly increased.
Friday will probably be when sellers start to get a little nervous, i'm waiting until then.
Get in price has hovered around 1200-1300 but if the market moves like i think it will you can probably get in for about 1-1.1K with taxes/fees included.
For this to be true you'd be saying their scout team which is likely 3rd stringers and walk ons are so good that they're kicking the first team offense's ass in practice, which is highly unlikely. If anything if the scout team defense is pretty good it's even more puzzling why the offense is so bad - they should be able to pick out the good plays (or least bad plays) and run them. An ineffective scout team has the opposite effect, sometimes through no fault of their own. The best example of this is attempting to have the scout team run a triple option offense. None of the players or coaches are probably that familiar with it so the defense likely dominates more than usual in practice. Then you face the service academy and you get gashed.
Anyways you're likely not even wasting the 2nd team D on this, they're getting about 25% of the snaps against the scout O and watching the first team on their own reps. The Iowa offense is likely going against freshmen and walk ons on Scout D and probably looking ok.
Brian Ferentz is not very good good at his job relative to most other offensive college football coaches. That's not the same as being a complete moron.
Fees are insane in many places, over $50 when I checked.
I wish ticketwatch still existed, I’ve held off buying for my group because tickets have fallen about 70% in value and I think it will fall more. Still over 5000 tickets on the public secondary market which is huge considering it’s in 2 days.
I have two competing best coping takes from Buckeyes and I can't decide which is more delicious
My dudes, when has The Game ever been played indoors?
lol. I attended the 2013 NCAA final 4. You can't take away the feelings!
…
It's not that complicated.
Having people filming the entire game is just weird. If a guy sitting directly in front of you is taking an iphone video of the entire game and he's zoomed in on the sideline signs the entire time you'd probably have some questions. It's only a matter of time until someone who knows someone notices and starts an investigation. Guy was dumb enough to purchase tickets in his own name and use his own venmo.
All he had to do were 3 easy things to leave virtually no tracks:
A burner pay as you go phone that never connects to wireless would probably also help. He's not evading the government, he's evading the dipshit NCAA and Ohio State. This guy was incredibly dumb.
Seth, apologies for the potential dumb question but have you tried just contacting their corporate leadership and board's email addresses (all on copy) letting them know they're likely victims of click fraud and referencing this thread about the negative sentiment it's generating?
if there's one thing C-level execs don't like it's a potential board member actually asking questions about what they're doing. While it's possible their intent is to piss off otherwise neutral people I'm guessing they're getting gamed as well. Occam's razor is that their head of marketing thought they found a super low cost way of running full page ads and didn't ask a lot of questions. Clicks are up, impressions are up, so why ask bothersome questions on why conversion is not up?
The thing is, they might also getting ripped off too. Large ads like that that are impossible to get rid of get a bunch of accidental or frustration clicks. Of course their conversion is probably super low but they're probably run by a person who either doesn't know or doesn't want to know how to actually effectively market. Clicks are up baby!
Anyways since it's in most company's benefit to not enrage potential customers needlessly it's probably some form of publisher (and not Mgoblog) click fraud.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Click_fraud
What I don't understand about people like you is what drives your obsession. Based on your comments in this thread alone it seems like you should address whatever it is in your life that makes you want to convince others that Brenda Tracy was out to get Mel Tucker.
Regardless of Tracy's motivations it seems clear that Mel made extremely dumb decisions and based on his actions is maybe one level above pond scum. So what motivates a person like you to identify with him and want to protect him, and on a Michigan site?
I eagerly await your screed on how Trevor Bauer was also a good guy.
Much like Iowa itself, i think it's funny that you're producing better content about Iowa football's quest for 25 average points than actual Iowa websites. Fitting
Obviously we are trying to cover the spread
Re: Tackles. I see the massive upside that Hinton has, I also see way too many negatives. I have to believe that the cupcake schedule was letting him try and win the job but it's leading to more exposure and pressure on JJ and needs to be shelved. We are well on our way to Hinton being a Joe Bolden memorial great in practice guy.
Pace is somewhat of a concern. Michigan looks to be affected far more by the new clock rules as our drives are somewhat grindy. The new clock rules look to be worth about a minute of game clock on an 3-4 first down type drive, over the course of the game this might be 1-2 ancillary posessions.
On the other hand the foot has come off the gas very early. Blowouts tend to accelerate late as you hit big plays you've set up with other actions early. Michigan is getting games over with as fast as possible with backups.
I'll do my own point counterpoint here.
Point: It is early in the season, they don't want to show things on tape until they need to. The playbook is more basic. They clearly want to emphasize or work on certain plays and are using this period as an extended fall camp. We likely aren't running the same play 5 straight times against OSU in a goal to go situation.
Counterpoint: This staff has shown a historical tendency to just light plays on fire or in a Debord light situation run bad plays to set up incredibly obvious plays later. It's beyond me why this continues to be an issue.
Listen man, it was almost certainly something on his transcript. He did get into Michigan, the requirement was that he attend summer bridge which is what happens when there's a concern about the college transition. This isn't a foreign concept to the football team, many recruits come in during the summer and are a part of bridge. Early Enrolees usually have relatively good test scores/transcripts. It's hard to believe that the football staff didn't know that this would be an issue.
At the end of the day people who work for Michigan aren't out to get these kids and screw the football team. Admissions would be the first people to tell you that having a successful football team is a huge competitive advantage to schools they view themselves competing against for students.
We've gone to the point where admissions is eating flak for other departments. There's also a very clear difference between high school admissions, transfer admissions, and grad school admissions.
I don't know how much things have changed since I left but it was a poorly kept secret that the athletics department got a certain amount of leeway/hall passes to use on recruits that were academically risky and that revenue sports got the lion's share of that. The shadier the situation, the more attention it would naturally get. The administrators in athletics have a dual job, to monitor and project what the incoming class looks like academically and to make sure that it's clear to the family what it will take to come into the class. RichRod was famously completely unprepared for this environment and there was resistance to operating like WVU. Harbaugh's staff has shown that they are on top of this and I'm inclined to believe this was almost certainly an issue on Worthy's side than someone at Michigan deciding to screw this kid over.
I for one am now wishing Jonas Mouton was in fact a Muton. While Mutons may not have sufficient lateral quickness I'm sure he would have made for a triple team destroying nose tackle.
I mean. Sure. Either way ever since the investigation came out it's damning for Fitz.
It's a football team. Upperclassmen aren't going to go rogue and systemically abuse freshmen without the implicit approval of the coaching staff, and there's no amount of willful blindness to cover that up.
I'm almost as disgusted with the stupidity of NW/Fitz to try and claim otherwise.
I could see objections to Cal and Stanford as not being really additive to the B1G outside of alumni relations. If they join their "home" games will be filled with original B1g alumni living on the west coast. While I'm sure they'd enjoy that I don't know what the rest of the conference really gets. The Pac-12 hilariously failed to make SF care about college sports for 10+ years.
Oregon and Washington would be nice but they come with baggage - their meddling legislatures will want their Michigan State like Ag schools to come along for the ride and there's just no way the B1g will want WSU or OSU (NTOSU)
While that is an important distinction it has become increasingly difficult if not impossible to disentangle as select politicians promote those discriminatory world views without consequence. When the political orientation itself embraces conspiracy theories and discriminatory actions what do you do?
The funniest and saddest thing is that they actually could do a reasonable job of controlling it with device management software. Of course, they would probably need to classify the athletes as employees in that case to install those controls.
So of course they won't do it.
championship level teams don't select at 12 at all. I hate that the lions took the 2nd RB that high.
I'm a little more forgiving on the #18 pick, outside of the top 10ish I think there are two types of players, extreme boom/bust types or high floor guys. I think it's unreasonable to expect every pick in the 15-25 range to be an elite NFL talent. Campbell probably will not be an elite NFL linebacker but if he's a solid starter through his rookie deal i think that meets expectations for the pick.
I've learned that I can simply spend 90 minutes doing something else, start the game, skip all commercials and halftime, and in general be caught up with the action sometime in the 4th quarter.
Living on the west coast really changes your sports viewing experience and this method made it easier to watch those noon eastern games.
The A's had a change in ownership away from the moneyball guy and what's left unsaid is that they've gotten if anything even cheaper. The Fisher family as a whole doesn't get enough bad press for running things deeper into the ground and then trying to force the city of Oakland to pay for the stadium.
This was always going to happen. Sorry to the A's fans but Oakland was never going to keep any of their teams because the new wealth uniformly chose SF over Oakland.
I think that even if it's just $2M over 2 years at age 22 that's life changing money and anyone on this board saying that they wouldn't do it is lying to their age-22 selves. These are the same people who would criticize the move if he were offered $40M or $400M
As for where that dawg in him went that's easy, I think he's been advised repeatedly, even by this fanbase, that he has next to 0 chance of sticking on an NBA roster because he lacks and likely cannot develop the athleticism to be worth investing in. If he continues to play basketball and put miles on his body it'll be for relatively low wages overseas. Look at Kofi Cockburn, i bet that guy wishes he had stayed for the NIL derby that's happening now instead of playing in the worst team in the Japan league.
The player going 6th overall in any draft should be an exceptional player at a position of need. If Aiden Hutchinson was in this draft there's a good chance he would have fallen to the 6th pick given the QB situations with the top 3-4 picks. Carter has higher upside but the downside risk is huge.
I'd rather have one of the highly rated CBs that don't have all sorts of personality red flags if Anderson isn't available
it's not just a show for children, it's an entire franchise for children.
Here's my hottest take: The original trilogy is good but was propelled to nostalgic glory by the special effects. Everything that has happened afterwards was built on quicksand and we are seeing the effects.
It's hard to suspend disbelief time after time when the backgrounds and settings are entirely one dimensional and completely disposable. Entire planets are one faceted. The desert planet. The ice planet. The jungle planet. The planet with beaches. Inevitably each place feels like some sort of small village instead of this vast universe of trillions of people. The extremely dangerous opponent ends up being a bunch of bumbling idiots almost every time they appear on screen.
Andor is the exception that proves the rule and even that show plays fast and loose with common sense rules.
I've turned into the old man yelling at a cloud. I don't get why people race to post news that they didn't generate themselves. Doubly so when it's tangential fairly unimportant news like this.
It's like they're the same people who play music loudly over bluetooth speakers in public.
So I don't think you can use pure win % to map it all out, in both sports due to cupcake/nonconference scheduling anything under .500 would be an outright disaster. There's a feelingsball number likely at around .750 in football and .650 in basketball for a season to be considered "good" - ranked in the top 25.
Then there are other feelings based things to consider: How much is each win in the NCAA tournament worth? How much is it worth even getting to the tourney? Is/Was a NYE/BCS bowl better than the Outback Bowl? How much weight should be placed on OSU etc.
To that end I developed a quick model to tell us whether or not a season was "good", tentatively named StAUsKAS - (STatistical Analysis Using Known AdjustmentS)
I only went back to the 2000 season, roughly around the start of the blog.
StAUsKAS:
The tally is:
7 years of deep sadness and soul searching
4 years of relative happiness:
6 years each of one team being clearly superior. Football was dominant until Rich Rod took over. Basketball shouldered the load until Harbaugh came.
So that's 12/23 years of one team being a head and shoulders above the other. If we assign even more weight to OSU losses and turn 2015. 2016, and 2018 into basketball dominant years a clear trend emerges but I'd think that an average Big Ten fan would consider those years successful.
I will go contrary to the majority of people and say there are definite times to use a travel agent, especially for your situation in Alaska.
If your intent is to fly to Anchorage, then everyone else is correct. If you're flying to one of the other relatively big cities in Alaska like Nome, Fairbanks, or Juneau its likely your only realistic option is Alaskan so you might as well book directly through them.
IF however you need to fly to any of the tiny airports in Alaska... that's the time to consult a travel agent.
that was the only late game time management item that was handled correctly. Correctly held onto them after 1st down, giving up 7 yards on 2nd to set up 3rd and 1 meant that TCU would likely get it, so might as well save them for the next set.
The real problem was the lack of urgency in the drive right before where they scored a TD but ate up too much clock to do it. If the situation was reversed it feels like TCU would have used maybe 1/3 of the time that Michigan did on that drive.
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Here's my hot take:
Michigan was a good second half team not because of the feelingsball "oh we wore them out" or "oh we made good adjustments". Michigan was a second half team because they would try to get away with doing the minimum possible to win in the first half and when that didn't work, pulled out the actual offensive playbook.
We've all seen the relative lack of respect Michigan gives schools like Rutgers that lets them hang around for much longer than they should. This time it finally came back to bite them in the ass in the goal to go situations. Michigan has fucked around a lot and finally they found out.
It's doubtful that Michigan would have gotten a top flight QB target pre-season when almost all of them had committed. If Cade had won the job he's got the profile of a CFB lifer. If JJ wins the job, well, it's better but they definitely won't start as a freshman. Even if they don't land a 4-5* heir apparent next year they can likely entice a Rudock type from the portal to tide them over.
WR is a similar-ish story. Look at UM's depth chart, it's stacked with WRs. Combined with how the staff uses WRs and it's an uphill battle before NIL or the Gattis departure are factored in. Based on the actions of the staff it looks like they'd rather lock down athletic TEs and hope that a raw WR will develop in a couple of years.
Losing Gattis hurt on the recruiting trail but it's pretty clear that Michigan's complex run-first game plan was not developed by Gattis. Looking at Miami's offensive results indicates that maybe Gattis isn't the offensive genius some think he is.
How rapid does the fan need to be? like a 4.3 40 time? Or are we talking about a distance runner?
Pistol formation frustrating as always. Auto check blitzes into it are also annoying. The dumbest part of all of it is if an opponent is smart enough to know you're setting up tendencies for a reason and prepare for it. Then you've set a bunch of downs on fire for absolutely no reason.
As for the motion/non motion, i distinctly remember Michigan passing out of motion sets later in the game, I think there's a strong bias for run, especially out of TE motion but its not 100%.
I think he was bad at his job at Michigan. I also think that his analysis is pretty good.
Devin Gardner summed it up perfectly in one of the videos. Borges wants to be right more than he wants to get it right. His play concepts weren't bad but the team that he had couldn't execute. Ultimately he failed because he couldn't successfully coach a team to execute the concepts that he wanted to run and/or that he couldn't adapt his scheme to fit the players he had.
But watching a game and explaining concepts is something that he can easily do.