Mason NEEDS this, Pistons, after all you've put him through
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|43 min 32 sec ago||Assuming that we are talking||
Assuming that we are talking about a series of indpeendent and identically distributed trials (which sports are surely not), it won't produce extraneous results. Here's why:
By using "at least" what you're saying is that everything after the 4th win is irrelevant, the computer is basically multiplying its answer by 1 for every game after that 4th win since a win or a loss by team A still results in team A winning the series.
The order is incorporated into the binomial distribution calculations done by Excel.
Considering the answer given by Excel is identical to the one done by hand, and identical to the one produced by the OP's code, i'd say it's pretty accurate.
|1 hour 23 min ago||wut?||
|1 hour 45 min ago||Alternatively, you could look||
Alternatively, you could look at it as a binomial distribution question and compute P(A wins series|A win game X)
Which, on Excel, would be "=1-binomdist(2,6,0.5,true)"
2=number of successes
6=number of trials
This will give you the Probability of A winning between 0 and 2 games, meaning Team A loses the series... So you do 1-that answer to get the P(A wins series).
Doing it this way negates the neccesity to do different calcluations for th series ending in 5, 6, or 7 games because we use the "at least" term. The computer will still compute all 6 remaning games, but as the numbers show, the results are the same.... and it's a lot less work.
|2 days 21 hours ago||Marc Bartra (the defender in||
Marc Bartra (the defender in question) was playing with a recently healed hamstring injury and reaggrevated it on that play.
|2 days 21 hours ago||Valdes would've saved it.||
Valdes would've saved it.
|4 days 19 hours ago||has the paper passed peer||
has the paper passed peer review? I am assuming it has not since the citation does not indicate this being published in a journal.
Not suggesting that the study is wrong, just that it is not appropriate to claim that it's valid until it passes peer review.
|6 days 23 hours ago||http://mgoblog.com/content/20||
Smith was not a highly rated 4* to anyone except Scout.
|1 week 25 min ago||If Peppers can beat out Lewis||
If Peppers can beat out Lewis for a starting spot then he is the real deal. (not that he isn't if he can't get a starting spot)
|1 week 5 days ago||McGary may not be included||
McGary may not be included because ESPN is using 2013-2014 performance as a metric.
EDIT- not neccesarily 2013-2014 NCAA experience, considering there are high schoolers on that list.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||BiSB right now|
|2 weeks 1 day ago||What makes you say that? It||
What makes you say that? It seems like the O'Bannon case is the reason for the end of NCAA Football video games, not a strategic decision by EA.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/27||
You're probably talking about that. If you read the actual article and not just the headline, you'll see that it only works on small objects and only with microwaves.
The headline is "a type of cloth can make objects invisible to light!" in reality, the light they are referring to is microwave radiation, which is a form of "light". But it isn't in the visible spectrum, so it's not invisible in the sense we typically think of.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||It would be an inconcievably||
It would be an inconcievably large jump in technology, given that right now the best we can do is make a very tiny object significantly less "visible" to a thing that measures microwaves.
|3 weeks 2 days ago||There's all that open space||
There's all that open space on the river. FLOATING BASKETBALL ARENA!
|3 weeks 3 days ago||You aren't good at||
You aren't good at statistics, are you?
|3 weeks 4 days ago||They can be free (or really||
They can be free (or really cheap) if you're willing to get them from an apprentice. I wonder if the NCAA has a rule against this, though. Maybe the NCAA is okay with free tattoos as long as you don't throw in any cream cheese.
|4 weeks 3 days ago||*****A very important note||
*****A very important note about Points East Pub*****
you CAN NOT bring kids. They will not let you. The reason is the owner was caught with a bunch iof child pornography and can't be within 100 feet of children. Just FYI.
|4 weeks 3 days ago||Also a Milwaukee resident and||
Also a Milwaukee resident and second your motion of declaring mke brewing the best Milwaukee brewery.
|5 weeks 4 days ago||Yeah a more in depth||
Yeah a more in depth hypothesis test would probably isolate difference from expected free throw % for each half of the court seperately, but I don't really have time to go that in depth.
|5 weeks 4 days ago||Regarding Northwestern's||
Regarding Northwestern's opponent free throw %... I just did a quick Binomial Distribution calculation using a cumulative average for FT% across the conference as the P(success)...
and computed the cumulative probability of opponents shooting less than or equal to 60.14% given the overall FT average of 71.7%. P(x<=60.14)=0.0016
I can do a more thorough Hypothesis test, but Im pretty sure the difference is statistically significant.
|7 weeks 15 hours ago||Am I the only cynical||
Am I the only cynical ass-hole who sees this and thinks Vegas is doing something unethical to obtain these results?
|7 weeks 16 hours ago||When you are talking about||
When you are talking about predictive modeling on things with such high variability and conditionalities, 70% accuracy is pretty damn good.
The big problem is that all predictive models are essentially extrapolators. They look at previous data, create a "function of best fit" and then apply the function to data outside the boundaries that were considered in the creation of the function. Extrapolation is always tricky, especially when you apply it to exceedingly variable things: like sports. Especially sports played by teenagers.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||Agreed. They should do it FA||
Agreed. They should do it FA cup style. 9000 soccer team tournament in England... surely we could get a 500,000 team bball tournament here.
|8 weeks 2 days ago||"Join the Michigan Marching||
"Join the Michigan Marching Band in a rousing chorus of The Victors! brought to you by Carl's Jr."
|9 weeks 5 days ago||I'd prefer Gruden.||
I'd prefer Gruden.
|9 weeks 6 days ago||I love it when humans act||
I love it when humans act humanely.
|10 weeks 23 hours ago||Update: The PA system does||
Update: The PA system does not work properly. For the remainder of medal ceremonies, Vladimir Putin will hold his iPod up to the micophone for all national anthems.
|10 weeks 1 day ago||K. Im getting my MS in IE,||
K. Im getting my MS in IE, which is essentially applied statistics. Im not just regurgitating something I've read in the past on the internet.
|10 weeks 1 day ago||Correlation =/= Causation.||
Correlation =/= Causation.
Edit- also, Purdue invested nearly $100 million into the Mackey Arena, the project finished two years ago. And they're terrible.
Your choice of teams as examples exhibit typical confirmation bias. I hypothesize that there is no causation between arena investment and team performance, but I'd have to analyze a lot of statistics to confirm or deny.
|10 weeks 3 days ago||Fuck you the Milwaukee Art||
Fuck you the Milwaukee Art Museum is gorgeous.