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The "problem" w/ recruiting rankings...

This “problem”, highly touted recruits not living up to expectations, isn’t only a D problem, and it didn’t just start last season. Michigan has not played up to expectations for some time. Just take a quick look at Rivals & Scout recruiting rankings for Michigan and tosu during the Carr/Tressel years:

Rivals Rankings
Michigan TOSU
2002 #16 #5
2003 #17 #41
2004 #5 #9
2005 #6 #12
2006 #13 #12
2007 #12 #15

Scout Rankings
Michigan TOSU
2002 #19 #3
2003 #8 #25
2004 #5 #11
2005 #2 #7
2006 #9 #13
2007 #10 #16

Basically, per Rivals, Lloyd out recruited Tressel 4 out of 6 years that they went head to head. Per Scout, 5 out of 6.

Of course, that’s not how things played out on the field. Recruiting rankings, either by class or by player, tell only a very small part of the story.

And since this is only the second season w/ the new coaching staff? You won’t be able to judge R2’s player recruitment and development (or Robinson’s or anyone else's) for another year or two.

numbers don't lie

but they don't always tell the whole story, either.

i am surprised at Brian's overall negative pronouncement, "this is not a good defense even when healthy", given the fairly significant differences between the first half & second.

ND has 300+ yds of offense in the first half, scored 20 pts, and maybe could have scored more w/ better execution.

2nd half? about 180 yds (and only about 30 yds or so in the 3rd quarter) & 2 TDs, one of which on a short field following an INT return. if you consider that ND had about 25-30 yds on the last play of the game, their O production in the 2nd half was greatly reduced- one, long TD drive, a short TD following the pick, and nothing else.

my point being is that i don't think we really have enough data to really grasp how good or bad the D is yet. the D that played the first half against WMU and second half against ND, averaging the two, may not have been "great", but i wouldn't call it "bad" either.

i think we're going to have to wait a few weeks (at least) to know.

post Rivals hype

this is a very good post and the stats/stars comparison is eye opening.

i'd add to it that the "Pryor Kool-Aid" has continued long past the recruiting services assessments.

the MSM voted this guy Big Ten offensive player of the year in August. this was after watching him play almost an entire season as the starter.

Pryor's numbers as a frosh were good- 800 yds rushing/1300 passing, 60% completion, w/ 12 passing TDs & 6 rushing- but hardly earth shattering (for comparison, Colt McCoy, as a frosh, put up 300 yds rushing/2500 passing, 68% completion, w/ 29 passing TDs and 2 rushing). and last year's tosu offense featured multiple NFL picks at RB & WR, in addition to losing most of the O line this year.

for the press to think that he was going to perform substantially better this year, w/out that suppporting cast,is pretty "out there".

the pundits, like the recruiting gurus, are in love w/ his physical skills (rightly), but that's not what QB is all about.

after the ND game, the reporter interviewed Tate & asked him about his touchdown run. Forcier launched into a discussion about how he "knew" that ND was in a "cover zero" D and goes on to explain how he knew how THAT D in THAT situation would mean he had an open running lane. point being, the ability to read the D, make a good decision, and then act on it is far more important than running a 4.3/40.

maybe someday Pryor will learn to make those kind of reads and decisions. certainly time & experience will help. until then, he's going to struggle against good D and suffer from comparisons of his performance to the expectations.

maybe we're reading the tea leaves upside down?

FWIW, I think most people are reading the “3 QB rotation” discussion backwards. The immediate reaction seems to be “neither frosh is very good and Nick Sheridan may be our best choice”, which, frankly based on last year, may not bode well, and tends to induce panic.

However, the real “take” may be just the opposite. Robinson and Forcier may both be doing very well. The coaching staff could be having a tough time deciding who is going to be better, or more importantly, who is going to be better by mid season/season’s end. Forcier may have the edge in experience now but Robinson could be seen as having more potential w/ more practice. The coaches may not yet know who is going to be better (which does NOT necessarily mean they both aren’t “good”) and they can’t afford to have either get discouraged or think they are out of the race (and gawd forbid, transfer or something).

Likewise, R2 can’t just ignore Sheridan and leave him out of the conversation entirely (ala Dave Cone). Sheridan did play hard last year and managed to lead us to a win over Minnesota. If either of the frosh gets injured, Sheridan’s one player away from starting again. The staff can’t afford to completely discard Sheridan’s contribution when they may need him to play at some point.

At the end of the day, what else is R2 supposed to say right now? That Forcier is #1? And tell Robinson he’s #2? Tell Sheridan “thanks for the effort” and just drop his name from the discussion like he was Dave Cone?

Right now the only thing R2 can say is that he has 3 viable QBs, that he wants to see all 3 of them play, and that he doesn’t know who will end up being the starter. To say anything else would cause more problems w/ the team than it would solve amongst the jittery alumni.

is it really even new news?

doesn't this same line of stories (MSU resurgence) run thru the MSM every 3-5 years?

in the 18 seasons since Bo retired, MSU has won 6 times against Michigan. in that same time, MSU has had 5 head coaches (6 if you count the interim HC at the end of the 2002 season). and with each head coach, it's pretty much the same news story:

Coach ___ is changing the culture @ MSU;

Coach ___ is going to put MSU on the map in the Big Ten and maybe nationally; and

Coach ___ just beat Michigan for the 1st time in X years, so that justifies the hype.

you heard it when Bo retired and Perles became the "Dean" of Big Ten coaches. you heard it when Saban arrived and won twice in 5 seasons. you heard when Williams won in his second season and went to a bowl game.

you could recycle any of those stories over the last 20 years, put Dantonio's name in the place of Saban's or Williams', and they'd read just like the MSM articles this season.

and don't be surprised in 3 to 5 years, when MSU has yet another new coach who beats Michigan for the first time in 3 to 5 years, you read the same stories again.

the press is going to say something, no matter what you do

Sorry, but what is R2 supposed to do? Start coaching, and making coaching decisions, based on what would look good in the press? Not likely.

What would any coach likely have done when Paulus showed up and asked about coming here and trying to play? I think most would have told him he was welcome to try and walk on (R2 has not offered Paulus a scholarship. http://www.detnews.com/article/20090417/SPORTS0201/904170397/1004/SPORTS.)

R2 didn’t recruit this kid. He came to us looking for an opportunity. What was R2 supposed to say? Say no, you can't try to walk on?

And why would he do that? Because Adam Rittenberg might question his logic?

And what if R2 had done that- told Paulus “no, we don’t want no more QBs”? Does anyone really think the press wouldn’t have hopped on that instead? Wouldn't the talk/MSM criticism have then been- "R2 declares QB position filled"? We'd have just had to listen to stories about how we might have missed out on the next Chris Weinke.

And as far as comparing QB roster depth, Brian has written about tosu’s lack of QB’s himself: http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2009/01/29/ohio-state-really-really-wa…

I don’t think it’s all that insane of a comparison.

must just be a slow news day

let's face it- after last year's 3-9, questioning anything and everything R2 does makes for easy writing for MSM & other outlets.

ask yourselves this- w/ only 2 scholarship QBs in spring practice, what would Sweaterboy had done if Paulus had shown up in Columbus Tuesday (instead of A2)? would he have said "no, you can't try to walk on here"? would he have said "you can walk on, but no matter how well you practice you'll never start because TP's the starter (no matter how poorly he might play)"? no, not likely.

he'd have likely said what R2 appears to have said: you're welcome to give it a try & we'll see what happens. that's probably what 9/10 coaches would do. but there wouldn't have been near the press coverage at most other programs, because most other programs don't have a new coach coming off the program's worst season in history. it's news here. it wouldn't be somewhere else.

R2 has made it clear all spring that the starting QB job is going to be open to all comers until August. Tater has to compete w/ Denard and Sheridan. and anybody else who steps up this summer. none of that is news or new.

it's real

i'm a michigan grad and my office is in the building across the street. the makers mark banner has been hanging on the side of the keybank building since the weekend.

columbus has a number of "exposed" building sides- tall buildings w/ an empty lot next door- leaving a windowless brick wall open to view. this banner is the latest in a series of "big" building covering billboards put up in the last year. there is a local ad group that specializes in it.

and while this is the first of the "big" ads to take a shot at michigan, this is hardly the first billboard in columbus to make some sort of crack. if i boycotted every business in cowtown that marketed by negative inferences towards michigan, i'd have to move (which i have considered over the last 5 years).