I did not make this headline up
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- 6 years 23 weeks
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- REDSHIRTED: You can choose to take the 5th year player or the recruit
- DID NOT REDSHIRT: You have to take a recruit
|13 hours 32 min ago||1. play video in browser 2.||
1. play video in browser
2. hit "print screen" when it gets to a part with the captioning
3. hit "paste" in image software
4. crop the rest of my screen including 90 articles I've been planning to read dating back to last fall (I PROMISE I'LL GET TO THEM EVENTUALLY GRANTLAND!)
5. Drag image file onto mgoserver in filezilla.
|15 hours 23 min ago||READ TERRY PRATCHETT AND||
READ TERRY PRATCHETT AND WATCH BASKETBALL NEITHER OF THESE THINGS IS ON THE INTERNET WAIT I GET PAID WHEN YOU'RE ON THIS SITE READ MORE MGOBLOG I FEEL LIKE MY NARRATIVE VOICE DOESN'T MATCH the capsing anymore nevermind this thread's gonna die anyhow.
|15 hours 30 min ago||WATCHING FUCKING BASKETBALL||
WATCHING FUCKING BASKETBALL WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE GO WATCH BASKETBALL
STOP BLOWING UP THE INTERNET GO WATCH BASKETBALL
|2 days 30 min ago||Re: California I should have||
Re: California I should have noted that Morgan Trent moved to Michigan (Brighton) in early HS and went to OLSM before coming to Ann Arbor.
|3 days 18 hours ago||You, sir, are welcome to be||
You, sir, are welcome to be on my lawn.
|3 days 21 hours ago||It was the Big Ten we were||
It was the Big Ten we were waiting on. Ferentz had made it clear-ish that he doesn't care about Urban Meyer's problems.
|3 days 21 hours ago||I like the Brady era sleeves||
I like the Brady era sleeves a lot, but I'm meh on more 'M's. Except for some of the uniformz what they've done with the away jerseys over the years hasn't bothered me. The one time I really got up in arms about the outfits was when they had to cancel the pre-gaming meeting for the trash tornado as everyone changed into the bumblebees. That time could have been spent rehashing the gameplan so we don't come out testing them deep in 45 mph winds.
|3 days 22 hours ago||Been planning an H4 on that.||
Been planning an H4 on that.
|5 days 11 min ago||I like the Tom Izzo Excuse||
I like the Tom Izzo Excuse Factory. I love it when a coach whines about what's going on even if the same thing and worse is probably going on for the other team and 200 other teams besides. I love that he starts each excuse with a paralipsis: "this loss was my fault, it's on me, but their guys were holding and bumping a lot out there and it's hard to coach when the other team isn't following the rules and not getting called for it, but I got to coach around that it's on me I have to do better."
Coaches should be screwball fans all the time. That way fans won't be able to shame each other all the time by following A newspaper columnist's sense of "sportsmanship."
|1 week 13 hours ago||My point on Bolden was he OR||
My point on Bolden was he OR Ross could have redshirted. Gedeon absolutely could have since he was the 4th guy in a three-man rotation. Gedeon saw only a few snaps against Akron and though that game mattered, Gedeon's performance wasn't any better than we had out of the three starters. That was the year Morgan, Bolden and Ross were rotating in the MLB/WLB positions. They didn't need Gedeon to burn his redshirt.
The year before was a little different because Bolden was the early enrollee and most vocal guy on the unit, but Ross started passing him in late fall, and they made the decision to let them compete for the backup job behind Morgan. At the time and now I've been saying the same thing: redshirt ONE of those guys--whoever's behind at the last fall practice.
|1 week 20 hours ago||This part I agree with and||
This part I agree with and always did:
I kept using Wilson as an example. Even though he only played about 12 snaps that would make it into a statistician's list of plays, he was 2nd on the depth chart at deep safety and was going to be starting most likely the following year. You have to play him, even though he's a guy you would probably get a better 5th year out of, because the team needed him playing.
You're missing the 1 cent $20 hypothesis entirely. It's 1 cent for, say, 55% chance at $20. It's from a mindfuck that gets passed around emails and the like where people are asked if they'd take $5 now or $50 in two years, but there's a 10% chance they won't remember to pay it (and you could die, etc.). Most people take the $5 but that is mathematically the wrong decision, because our brains are wired for instant gratification. The point is you're giving up a cent if Marvin Robinson rather than Dymonte Thomas is your punt and kickoff gunner for a season, and that's worth it for a 55% shot at a 5th year starting safety Dymonte Thomas.
|1 week 1 day ago||He relented on QBs and OL||
He relented on QBs and OL after I made that list.
We did refute the math. In fact we completely blew it up. The flaws in that argument we exposed are twofold:
1) 5th years are an option. So aftef four years:
Cycling more players through the program just to cycle them defeats the point of having more players coming through the program: more options.
2) Most of the 85 scholarships are not seeing significant playing time in any given season, so you are not using guys you were already not using.
The whole point of redshirting is you are giving up a miniscule amount of productivity for a shot a high level of productivity and no downside. He tried to argue this by saying coaches will hold onto 5th years to be safe but I showed over the last 20 years Michigan under various coaches let enough 5th years go unrenewed that Harbaugh would have to be dramatically more loyal/conservative than Carr for this to be a concern.
|1 week 1 day ago||Isaiah Thomas. Not Isiah the||
Isaiah Thomas. Not Isiah the Piston -- the one who was with Phoenix until recently. Shorter, great feel for the game and decent offensive abilities. But I'm not the hoops expert so I bet you other readers can come up with better.
|1 week 2 days ago||Don't forget Bacon. Oh man||
Don't forget Bacon. Oh man now I wish you'd done this. That could have been my presentation: we bring these kids in and don't tell Brian what's about to be pitched to him.
|1 week 3 days ago||I understood he wasn't but I||
I understood he wasn't but I don't remember where i got that from.
|1 week 4 days ago||Let me get my argument straight||
Conceptually we agree: I want minor conference champions to get an autobid, but I want them to draw a line between minor conferences and a wholly different level of competition that "Division I" no longer does.
What bothers me that a three-game winning streak in the SWAC earns that team a bid over a more deserving minor conference team that had a much better season. Murray State didn't lose from November 30 until a 1-point upset in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, which happened to be held in the home city of the team that upset them. But there's only one autobid for the OVC and precious few spots for at-large teams.
Michigan proved what it is this year against plenty of top competition while 15 seeds sometimes make surprising runs they otherwise would never had the opportunity to play.
The NCAA could throw more really good teams into the mix if it opened up some spots it doesn't need to preserve, and when there are two minor conferences so dramatically behind the other minor conferences, those autobids become low-hanging fruit. A great SWAC or MEAC season can still get a bid--and they have in the past. I just don't think the NCAA needs to (sometimes additionally) save a spot for a conference tournament that on average yields a team that would have six wins if it played in the MAC.
|1 week 5 days ago||Nevermind was posted 28 hrs before me||
From title my first thought was this guy was born Sept 24, 1991
|1 week 5 days ago||Lewan's twosie||
|1 week 5 days ago||Ojemudia forever!||
|1 week 5 days ago||Alan Branch killing things then walking away.||
|1 week 5 days ago||My first gif for consumption (none of these are memes shut up)||
|1 week 5 days ago||The time I changed Brian's avatar||
|1 week 5 days ago||
|1 week 5 days ago||That one time someone read||
That one time someone read Dear Diary.
|1 week 5 days ago||Bythe got expensive as hell||
Bythe got expensive as hell and we can use Twitter for free. I hope Twitter gets better at it. Find me a new system that isn't more expensive than any sponsor should be asked to pay and I can try to sell it.
|1 week 5 days ago||I feel like Serville gets the||
I feel like Serville gets the A.J. Williams treatment around here. We mad that Trouba and Merrill left, and you can't get mad at freshmen for being freshmen, or Chiasson because he's Heiko's size, or Lohan because he's Lindsay's 6'5 cousin. But then here's a drafted senior who's 6'3 and over 200 (by now right?) who should be 1st pair by now and instead his game is still full of "argh." I think on a deeper team Serville should have gotten a look as a grind line winger. He's never been the guy I want back there, but he's a guy I think would do well chasing somebody super talented around the ice. He can skate fine.
|1 week 5 days ago||Nobody's arguing that||
Nobody's arguing that immediate starters should start. These are all arguments to immediately burn the redshirts of Matt Godin and Jeremy Clark and Jehu Chesson (OP has since backed off on QBs, OL and TEs) so you won't be tempted to bring them back in 2016, and so they'll be a smidge more motivated, and so Michigan can take a swings on recruiting six more guys after Andre Criswell.
You're making a blanket statement but where are the exceptions? What if a true freshman is indistinguishable from four seniors at his position? What if a true freshman slot receiver is a smidge better than your 2nd string slot receiver, and you use a slot receiver on 2% of plays? What if a highly athletic guy who played a different position than you plan to use him gives your punt coverage team an average 0.05 yards per punt over the course of the season?
|1 week 5 days ago||You could apply all of those||
You could apply all of those guys to every one of those answers. I just broke them up by position because there were so many. Read it as if I'm saying there's like a hundred seasons worth that we got back by ignoring each of your ancillary concerns. Or if you back off on TE and OL and QBs, there's 73 guys left, including Drake Johnson, Allen Gant, Chris Wormley, Jehu Chesson, Jeremy Clark, Matthew Godin, Tom Strobel, and Willie Henry who thanks to voluntary redshirts will still be around in 2016, or not if Michigan chooses not.
What about DL, for whom size and technique are huge? Or LBs who need to learn quick read/reactions? Or receivers, who stand out if they're ludicrous athletes but otherwise dramatically improve year by year with better routes and moves and understanding of coverages just like quarterbacks? Or safeties who are the quarterbacks of the defense these days and who modern offenses pick on the most? I'll make this same case for everyone but RBs and CBs to argue about whether they should give up their 5th years for all the other reasons.
If Ohio State has a weakness it's that Urban has a deserved reputation as a dishonest guy for pulling maneuvers like that. We shouldn't emulate bad things they do because they are sucessful at them.
The value judgements we're making are provable. Attrition is a relatively known rate (the 55%s are rare and speak to major things going on beyond the scope of a program for which redshirting is reguarly an option) , and an experienced starter's projected value to a team is calcuable as is the value of a spot special teamer. We already know a starter versus a special teamer is 20-to-1 because PAN says so.
The last shred of "you don't know" comes from "well coaches see things and players are motivated in ways you plebes don't understand." Three, four years ago I'd give you that, but I've spent the intervening time talking with lots of football guys and I call BUULLLLLLLLSHIT. Coaches want to win and keep their jobs (which is not the same thing as longterm program health). Players want to play, keep their scholarships, stay healhty, and make it to the NFL. Both groups include some of the most highly motivated people in the country. Players and coaches also plot just like any other groups of people: some are forward-thinking and others are very now-oriented. Defeating our psychology and doing the right thing is what we use hard things like math for. The team is best served by having better, bigger, faster, stronger, better coached, better prepared players and that's what redshirting gives you for pennies on the dollar.
Thirty more recruits every 5 years is yummy, but the value of extending the bottom of your recruiting class is far less than an option on a 5th year on your recruiting class. You presume because Michigan averages 3.7 stars that we'll get 4-stars, but every recruit is a guy you have to sell on the school and the program, and extending the class brings diminishing returns.
What you're getting is first to sixth guy(s) they were going to offer after Jason Foster ('96), Will Peterson (97), Deitan Dubuc, Greg Brooks, James Taylor, Jacob Stewart, Spencer Brinton, Paul Sarantos, Brandent Englemon, Grant DeBenedictis, Andre Criswell, John Ferrara, Marrell Evans, Justin Feagin, Teric Jones, D.J. Williamson, Tamani Carter, Reon Dawson, Brady Pallante, or whoever ends up being the last guy in this class. A few more swings even in that pool is bound to produce some good players--never a Heisman--but optional 5th years are dramatically better bets, AND they're optional, so if they're not better bets you can still go recruit the next guy down the list. At best you find an Englemon; some years you're offering the sixth guy you wanted after Andre Criswell.
What you're talking about are ONLY ancillary benefits. There are ancillary benefits of redshirting too: a year to get acclimated to college life and classes, less coursework in individual semesters (though this is offset at Michigan by NCAA's credit hour demands and Michigan's annoying habit of making high-level courses fewer credit hours, and that most 5th years graduate in December), a far lower chance of transferring, and for the player it makes him more worth the coaches' limited time.
The overwhelming evidence supports redshirting guys who won't be playing valuable snaps (Wilson played valuable snaps) because it's a 1-for-1 trade of a year when a player is of not much use to you, for a year when you can keep him if he's of use to you and don't have to if he's not.
And to address something from the thread above: Harbaugh's Stanford 80-percent retention rate times $15 = $12.00 = FOUR times $3.00.
Side note: stop saying Mike Hart when you want to point out a 3-star. Hart went to a tiny school in NY who popped onto their radars because he was suddenly shredding NY State records, and as soon as they saw his film Michigan was all over him despite having Dave Underwood, Jerome Jackson, Pierre Rembert, and Tim Bracken ahead, 4-star Max Martin in his class, AND 5-star all-everything Kevin Grady already committed for the following season. That was a weird under-the-radar thing that happens less often now that private (OLSM) and magnet (Cass Tech) schools recruit more. You aren't getting a potential Mike Hart when you take a consensus three-star, or a Jake Ryan for that matter. You get those guys by culling the lower ranks of high schools where standouts are beating up on future dentists and bloggers, and getting lucky enough to stumble upon the rare thing, know what you've found, and he wants to come to your school. Because Michigan got lucky once does not raise the chances that we will get even more lucky in a completely different scenario.
|1 week 6 days ago||and Ryan Mundy was only a||
and Ryan Mundy was only a medical redshirt. I was going for non sequitur
|1 week 6 days ago||You Said: "Most freshman that||
Here are 131 anecdotes of when you were wrong:
Zach Adami, Kurt Anderson, David Baas, Jeff Backus, Greg Banks, Ricky Barnum, Willis Barringer, Rondell Biggs, Mark Bihl, Grant Bowman, Eric Brackins, Tom Brady, David Brandt, Steve Breaston, Joey Burzynski, Tyrece Butler, Mark Campbell, Clint Copenhaver, Shawn Crable, Julius Curry, Markus Curry, Kenny Demens, Joe Denay, Carl Diggs, Perry Dorrestein, Scott Dreisbach, Kevin Dudley, Tyler Ecker, Brandent Englemon, Obi Ezeh, Juaquin Feazell, Jay Feely, John Ferrara, Adam Finley, J.T. Floyd, Steve Frazier, Jake Frysinger, Jeremy Gallon, Brendan Gibbons, Jason Gingell, Graham Glasgow, Cameron Gordon, Thomas Gordon, Brian Griese, James Hall, David Harris, Will Heininger, Leo Henige, Norman Heuer, Victor Hobson, Steve Hutchinson, Mark Huyge, Jon Jansen, DiAllo Johnson, Will Johnson, Bennie Joppru, Anthony Jordan, Cato June, Joe Kerridge, Mike Kolodziej, Jordan Kovacs, Adam Kraus, Mike Kwiatkowski, Shawn Lazarus, Kevin Leach, Matt Lentz, Jeremy LeSueur, Taylor Lewan, Jake Long, K.C. Lopata, Roy Manning, Tim Massaquoi, Michael Massey, Patrick Massey, Ben Mast, Tim McAvoy, Scott McClintock, John McColgan, Elliott Mealer, Zoltan Mesko, Andy Mignery, David Molk, David Moosman, Courtney Morgan, Mark Moundros, Jonas Mouton, John Navarre, Obi Oluigbo, Patrick Omameh, Mark Ortmann, Tony Pape, Dave Pearson, Dave Petruziello, Marcus Ray, Rob Renes, Joe Reynolds, Rueben Riley, Eric Rosel, Roy Roundtree, Dan Rumishek, Jake Ryan, Stephen Schilling, Michael Schofield, Bill Seymour, Jon Shaw, Aaron Shea, Demeterius Solomon, Glen Steele, Adam Stenavich, Charles Stewart, Jacob Stewart, Rob Swett, Sam Sword, Carl Tabb, Brian Thompson, John Thompson, Shawn Thompson, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Morgan Trent, Jerame Tuman, Jeremy Van Alstyne, Ryan Van Bergen, Jay Vinson, Quinton Washington, Steve Watson, Andre Weathers, Brandon Williams, Josh Williams, Eric Wilson, Pierre Woods, Chris Ziemann.
I'm sure after reading that your palm and your forehead are pretty sore, but please add an extra hard one for each Tom Brady Superbowl victory anway.
Those guys all started (or are expected to start) at least two games as 5th year seniors for Michigan, and were voluntarily redshirted as freshmen (or in Kovac's case, didn't even make the team).