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- 12 spots in NY6 bowls
- Up to 4 conferences guaranteed 2 spots by having one team in the playoffs. (so max 8 teams that aren't Big Ten teams have berths)
- Group of Five guaranteed one spot. (9/12 teams)
- Two non-playoff B1G teams could be ahead of Michigan in the pecking order (B1G CG winner and OSU) (11/12 teams)
- Playoffs: Washington and/or Clemson loses, head-to-head matters more than conference championships in comps with Wis/PSU and/or Colorado.
- Rose: Ohio State and B1G CB winner both make the playoffs but Michigan doesn't.
- Orange: Just one of Ohio State and B1G CG winner make the playoffs.
- Outback: Wholefuckery
- SEC or Big XII champ in the playoffs
- 3 more non-Big Ten teams in the playoffs
- B1G Champ in the Rose Bowl
- Another B1G team in the Orange Bowl
- A 3rd B1G team gets an at-large bid to the Sugar
|4 hours 13 min ago||Because Brian doesn't write||
Because Brian doesn't write the bullets. He has me listen to the podcast and write up what I thought you guys talked about, because the best time to post a podcast is 5 hours before he gets up in the morning.
And I do want to discuss City of Thieves. It's a great book my grandma put on my Kindle then died before I could talk to her about it so I feel cheated.
|5 hours 15 min ago||It does, because if the ACC,||
It does, because if the ACC, SEC, Pac12 and/or Big12 champs make the 4-team playoff this year, there are going to be 2 teams from those conferences in NY6 bowls. We already know there will be at least 2 Big Ten teams (B1G CG winner and OSU).
Simplified version of what I wrote in the article:
So in a nightmare scenario there could be up to 11 teams that get spots before Michigan can even be considered as an at-large. So all it would take from there is one at-large team passing Michigan. The most likely candidates would be USC or whichever Group of Five team (Navy or WMich) doesn't get the Group of Five auto-bid.
This would require the Big XII champ getting into the playoff ahead of Ohio State and the B1G champ. Ohio State getting booted from the playoffs would put the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl if the B1G CG winner is in the playoffs, or bump them down to the Orange if the B1G champ doesn't make the playoffs.
If the Big XII doesn't get a playoff spot they're likely to have just one team in the NY6 (their champ), creating another at-large spot. Ditto the Pac 12 (e.g. if Colorado wins tonight and doesn't get a playoff bid) and the ACC (e.g. if Clemson loses tomorrow to VT).
So Michigan's route to each bowl:
|7 hours 11 min ago||http://mgoblog.com/content/he||
These are just guys (St Juste the other) who were taking for-fun visits but the staff has been in communication with them constantly.
|10 hours 13 min ago||You literally just made the||
You literally just made the same argument that two coaches and I were laughing about two nights ago at the bar. But the stats! But what happens when he's lined up as a middle linebacker and he doesn't teleport around offensive lineman! Look at the stats! Look at Scales!
Dude it's not 1950 anymore. The simple fact that Michigan forces teams in the present day to try to rediscover three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust is your answer.
That shouldn't take away from Urban Meyer's excellent offensive strategy or the athleticism of his best players. You can be the best player on the field but you are still just one of 22 and On Any Given play your coach may put you in a position to succeed or you are opposing coach may put you in a position where you can't do much no matter who you are.
|10 hours 22 min ago||Michigan is getting crunched||
Michigan is getting crunched on awesome receivers. I think they feel really good about Nico Collins and DPJ, plus they are including Hawkins in this class. So they're in a situation where either Tarik Black or Oliver Martin, two absolutely excellent prospects beyond Holloman's level, might not fit in this class. Getting four of those 5 is a very good receiver year. We could make a long list of Michigan receivers in history who would not have made it in this class.
|19 hours 7 min ago||Did you see many receiver||
Did you see many receiver screens against Michigan? Isn't that strange against a 4-3 defense? I get the argument that Peppers was a 4-2-5 safety but not that he didn't change the look of every game. Every team we played had to throw out half of their offensive Playbook.
|1 day 46 min ago||Yeeeeesh. This is correct. I||
Yeeeeesh. This is correct. I misunderstood.
|1 day 6 hours ago||They don't have enough data,||
They don't have enough data, correct. The SEC was a weak conference so if Bama loses to Florida they could drop out of the top five. It's highly doubtful considering they have a 52-6 non-conference win over USC, but with humans in charge you can never be more than 92% about anything.
|1 day 6 hours ago||I think they made that||
I think they made that agreement before the Playoff Committee announced how they're going to do things. The procedure now is vague but seems to only guarantee the Big 12 and SEC champions a slot in a CFP bowl:
In other words they're at the mercy of the CFP Committee until the Alamo Bowl.
|1 day 6 hours ago||Alvarez has to recuse||
Alvarez has to recuse himself.
|1 day 7 hours ago||If the SEC or Big XII rep is||
If the SEC or Big XII rep is in the playoffs then the Sugar can get an at-large team in there. We're talking extremely rare circumstances but it could happen:
It's not too weird. Imagine a season where Bama, Clemson, Texas and USC are undefeated, Michigan went undefeated until getting upset in the B1G CG by 4-loss Wisconsin, and Ohio State's only loss was by a hail mary in Ann Arbor.
The four undefeated conference champs go to the playoffs, the de jure B1G Champ Wisconsin goes to the Rose Bowl, and then Michigan and Ohio State make different New Year's Six Bowls.
|2 days 1 hour ago||I said it before and I'll say it again: All can still be right w||
I said it before and I'll say it again: All can still be right with the world
...stop saying it. THis has been covered on the main page and on the board; it doesn't need a diary.
|1 week 3 hours ago||He fell down on a lot of||
He fell down on a lot of tackle attempts and there are a lot of other rough edges in his game. He plays young. Top 15? I guess because there's upside left, but when I was debating that in my head I saw him miss two more tackles and went with just a star.
|1 week 7 hours ago||Fickell isn't really the||
Fickell isn't really the brains behind the defense. He's more of a...how do i put this without making accusations I can't suppo...oh what the hell, he's the bag-man. Don't quote me.
Chris Ash was the de facto defensive coordinator for a time and now it's Schiano, who's a Brian Kelly-level asshole but also a good enough coach that he made RUTGERS good. Larry Johnson has total control over the defensive line and that has been the basis of their voyage to elite under Meyer. The massive talent disparity between Ohio State's defense and the teams they play makes up for the fact that this defense isn't very well coordinated. Where OSU's offense uses its talent every play for maximum efficiency, I think their defense doesn't get all they could out of what they have because the secondary isn't running anything that works in concert with what the defensive line is causing. They bring a cornerback into the box all the time but don't blitz him, so you wind up with a cornerback in the right position with no idea what to do with it.
|1 week 7 hours ago||(No subject)||
|1 week 7 hours ago||Rememberberry when Fickell||
Rememberberry when Fickell was the head coach of the Buckeyes that one year?
|1 week 8 hours ago||^||
|1 week 1 day ago||We missed shots. Gotta make||
We missed shots.
Gotta make those shots.
|1 week 4 days ago||Truck drive-in.||
|1 week 4 days ago||I decided I would for you,||
I decided I would for you, then the guy right after you got it right so I guess I have to count it!
|1 week 4 days ago||He wasn't wrong I||
He wasn't wrong I misunderstood him. He just said the same thing
|1 week 4 days ago||I upload it late at night||
I upload it late at night actually so podcast apps can probably get it at 1 a.m. or whenever. If you set your app (I use Podcast Republic) to auto-download new episodes it should be on your phone when you wake up Monday morning.
|1 week 4 days ago||1. wait till seth gets||
1. wait till seth gets home
2. works now
|1 week 4 days ago||Should be working now.||
Should be working now.
|1 week 6 days ago||This is a test.||
This is a test to see what happens if i edit a score
|1 week 6 days ago||The talent asked for ginger||
The talent asked for ginger ale. They brought me diet ginger ale and some weak spritzer water from Canada that nobody touched.
|2 weeks 5 hours ago||I don't know if we've argued||
I don't know if we've argued over stuff before so I'm not sure if you're misunderstanding me or, like, trying to be contrarian. "Your statement is false" is pretty hard-line regardless. Defaulting to not understanding, I think it's a given that nobody runs a pure Vince Wilforkian 3-4 unless we're talking about HS freshman teams in leagues where 9th graders aren't allowed to play varsity. Even so I pointed this out. A philosophy is just a set of guiding principles, not religion.
|2 weeks 6 hours ago||Bubble screens don't work||
Bubble screens don't work against tight man coverage: you're throwing it at a guy who's getting mauled by a cornerback. Tunnel screens can punish hyperaggressive linebackers but the thing about Oliver and Scales is they're aggressive at stepping down but also fast readers. You want to catch them in a blitz or confuse them--the former is doable but there's a high likelihood of these guys sniffing it out.
I'd go into this game with quick outs to Butt, and whams, straps, step-and-seal and pin/pull running plays to screw those guys for getting upfield. Scheme the hell out of them to force the LBs to take on blockers. The same strategies opponents have been throwing at Michigan ought to work well against this.
|2 weeks 7 hours ago||where I wellactually your wellactually||
|2 weeks 7 hours ago||It's 3-4 versus 4-3||
It's 3-4 versus 4-3 philosophy.
3-4: Control blockers at the line of scrimmage, linebackers read multiple gaps and attack.
4-3: Everybody has one gap and can play aggressively to that gap.
Both work, and both can work with different types of personnel. There are 3-4 teams that are gap teams and plenty of 4-3 teams that two-gap, and everybody mixes in the other ever game and even within a play. For example with the Ravens Mattison would run a 4-3 under where the nose tackle played to prevent the center from crossing him, which is a 3-4 philosophy. But Ray Lewis was the absolute most 4-3 middle linebacker in history--dude even went to Miami where Jimmy Johnson created the modern gap 4-3. So they'd give Lewis gaps all over the dang place, and it would look like they're inviting you to run into this gap where your OL is in an advantageous position but NOPE Ray Lewis just ate you.
This defense makes sense for Indiana because they have light linebackers who aren't going to beat their blocks, and heavy DL who aren't going to run anybody down in the backfield once they make it there. Michigan State likes linebackers who can get off blocks so they have their DL shoot gaps. Ultimately you have to win football battles somewhere--it's all about picking where those battles take place, putting your strengths where they can do the most good and hiding your weaknesses.