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That's part of it but it's…

That's part of it but it's more of a story about panic and overreliance on uninsured deposits. I believe at 12/31 they were at 89% of deposits as uninsured. Those depositors are at some modest risk of loss but have large liquidity risk in the event of closure as funds are tied up until resolution. So when liquidity tightened and the bank took the securities losses and it became public on Wednesday, the tech sector (led by Thiel) decided to pull their money. They had $42 billion in outflows in Thursday, something in the range of a quarter of deposits. In some sense that makes sense on an individual basis to try to preserve your access to funds, but it also creates liquidity runs a failure that likely would not have occurred otherwise. Now of course you layer huge unrealized depreciation and excessive duration with MBS and negativity convexity on a tech sector pullback and then an epic deposit run you get failure. 

Generally banks are closed…

Generally banks are closed after COB on Fridays and reopen on Mondays with access to the insured funds at the purchasing bank. WAMU and SVB are exceptions to that in part due to size and also since both had effectively run out of liquidity. That money may or may not be available over the weekend depending on the circumstances. It's usually a pretty minor impact for insured depositors. For uninsured funds over $250K yeah, you would be dependent on the resolution process to liquidate assets and then distribute as cash or more typically there is a P&A in place for assets and liabilities before closure. The uninsured depositor resolution part can take months, especially in the case of a larger and more complex institutions. 

 

Anyone with over $250K in a single account type at a single bank should be considering diversifying across banks, perhaps across account types, or considering reciprocal deposit products. Well, you should actually be doing some other things and taking to a financial advisor but at the least there are easy ways to get additional FDIC coverage without too much work. 

...Pass the Dutchie 'pon the…

...Pass the Dutchie 'pon the left hand side...

Can't agree with much you…

Can't agree with much you said. He's averaging a relatively low 3 2PA/game despite playing a lot of minutes. He can't create a pull up jumper for himself and seldom gets to the rim by beating his man.  He's also a below average ball handler/passer for a wing with a 1:2 assist to TO ratio. 

 

His off ball defense is not really good, no idea how you can say that, and his on ball defense is poor. I do agree that Bufkin and Williams have some issues as well.

 

I agree his shooting numbers are solid for a freshman. I suppose that depends on what the expectations were to begin with, a McDonalds AA or a generic freshman. 

 

While he was billed as mostly polished as a shooter, his recruiting profile as a highly ranked recruit and potential one and done would have indicated he was much more athletic than he is by a huge margin. In which case, he certainly would have been expected to grow playmaking and shot creation more easily. That won't happen because he is not that level of athlete.

 

 

He can still be a pretty…

He can still be a pretty useful piece in the future if he improves defensively and if he is surrounded by complimentary skillsets that can break down the defense and/or more shooting. But yeah, he is effectively Just a Shooter and probably a 4th option on offense which is not what the recruiting profile would have indicated. Not an NBA athlete or playmaker but it's not his fault per se that the expectations resulting from his flawed recruiting ranking. 

Right, 3's but also I was…

Right, 3's but also I was thinking of long 2's of 15+ feet or whatever but yeah, either way pretty bad outside of Eli. 

They do seem to be playing a…

They do seem to be playing a bit better defensively. The offense is just too constrained by the lack of shooting and the relative inability of any guards or wings to get their own shot. Except Collins but he is out of control once he gets to the rim.

 

Did anyone other than Brooks hit a perimeter shot before the Houstan 3 on our last possession? I can't really think of one.

Hart has a promising future…

Hart has a promising future but he's never even been a coordinator, regardless of his "Associate Head Coach" title at Indiana. He's not getting a P5 head coaching job at this stage of his career. 

 

Thirty years later and there is still no certainty to the old rumor that Les Miles fucked Gary Moeller's wife. Such is the nature of rumors. Trevor Pryce did run rampant in South Quad...that one is true. 

 

Anyway, do the circumstances really even matter? Harbaugh is head coach, and Gattis is ghost so those are the facts. Life goes on with a new OC. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

Can't feel too bad about…

Can't feel too bad about this game at this point given the improvement in effort and intensity but at the same time still not good basketball. Jones played about as well as can be expected. Frazier was able to get to the rim on him but he just doesn't have the lateral quickness to prevent that. 


Houstan, I dunno what you do with him. The way the roster is constructed and for the future you almost have to play him since this is a lost season but he also doesn't deserve minutes given his play. 

 

Diabate didn't know what to do with Kofi in the paint once Moussa got the ball on the PNR. 

 

This isn't factually true, stats show we are middle of the pack, but damn if it doesn't feel like this is the worst 3 point shooting team in the history of humanity. 

 

Underwood kinda looks like Mad Dog from Harry Potter. 

I do think that if you go…

I do think that if you go through the rosters as a whole and the defenses that USC did have more talent among the DL/OL and depth of talent too, but I agree it's not quite the disparity that existed in 1991 especially in terms of speed. I certainly agree with your point on mentality, I think it was philosophy more than scheme. It's the original sin of Michigan football so to speak to doggedly cling to a right way to play football and to win which was to run and stop the run. That dogma was true under Bo, Lloyd, and to a lesser extent Harbaugh and Mo. I mean I think we all would have loved to have seen something closer to the 2007 Citrus Bowl game plan at various points in time with some of the passing talent we had but not the Michigan way. 

I mean to some extent it is…

I mean to some extent it is a zero sum game right? There are 100 top 100 players every year etc etc. It's not hard to imagine a scenario that NIL favors a few choice schools that have big resources and were less willing to be football factories before such as M, Notre Dame, maybe PSU, or even other schools that will be outlandish with money and now have a wider base of donors willing to dip into the NIL pool than they were to go bagman since the bag does sometimes get wrapped up into questions of tax evasion, wire fraud, money laundering etc. Perhaps an Ole Miss or TAMU. Regardless, it seems as likely as not that the losers are going to be schools like Iowa and Wisconsin that occasionally pick up a local 4 star, or like Purdue with Karlaftis etc while the Alabama's and Georgia's still get the five stars. 

 

But then where I think you really do see more distribution of talent is the portal. The transition costs for benchwarmers to roll the dice elsewhere are so low now that you'll see more and more attrition from the top schools as backups bail. They can always replenish with recruits, but I suspect you may see a trend over the next decade where it becomes like Kentucky or Duke basketball at AL or GA etc where the talent is always great but due to constant turnover sometimes you are too young or underdeveloped to be really good season to season the way AL has been. 

2003 was certainly a better…

2003 was certainly a better and more talented team than 2021 but they were prone to shooting themselves in the foot and the special team was bad. Should have had that Oregon game and for the most part lost it due to terrible special teams to my recollection. The USC teams were a bit more prone to having bad losses but they were sort of the Alabama of that era from about 2002 to 2009 with the most overall talent. 

If you look at the roster…

If you look at the roster you are like wow, 2000, great offensive talent and then go back to the games and the stats and for some reason that team could not run the ball. Weird stuff. 

Yeah, I think there is a…

Yeah, I think there is a pretty good argument that 85-92 is the golden years of Michigan years in my fandom in the 40 years I've been watching. Lots of oh so close moments and tough losses but we were legitimately as good as some teams that were national champs or that caliber. 

Not sure if I should be…

Not sure if I should be enjoying watching OSU's defense getting worked again or if I should feel bad for not recognizing the offensive performance against them has a bit different contextual meaning after our game plus this game. Opt outs etc too. But damn is their defense bad. 

Should have read your post…

Should have read your post first but yeah, same exact thought. We thought that 1991 offense was great with Grbac, Desmond, Alexander, Wheatley, Powers, Skrepenak, Cocozzo, Everitt, Elliott, Tony McGee etc. And even though they had some difficultly with FSU's speed, still put up some points. But then absolutely got destroyed by the UW DLine in that Rose Bowl. Everything on D just moving faster than they were. 

This game reminded me a bit…

This game reminded me a bit of some past games like the Rose Bowls after the 1991 and 2006 seasons against that Emtman UW team and the loaded Carroll USC team. I guess every 15 years we get one of these? Or perhaps the FSU game as well in 1991. Where you can pick through various football related items but the overarching take is that the athleticism gap is so large it makes much of the football scheming and skills moot. 

1992 is underrated and in…

1992 is underrated and in typical Michigan fashion aggravating as that team was so close to being undefeated.

I know the ending was a dud in 2004 losing to a bad OSU team and then the Rose Bowl with Texas was a great game. That was not a great team but a very entertaining series of games. 

But yeah 1997. To a greater extent than even this year, so unexpected and so fun to shut down all the offenses we faced. Although Tim Dwight's punt returns stressed me out. Also, fuck David Boston (even pre-roid rage). 

Bad time for the team's…

Bad time for the team's worst game of the season, plenty of mistakes by coaches and players' execution was poor. But this was mostly about talent. Anything against a true top tier team is going to be very difficult until the power of the bagmen is diminished.

 

Still an excellent year. 

Oh well. Season went about…

Oh well. Season went about as well as could ever be hoped and this game was as bad as could be imagined. 

Sure, majority of those…

Sure, majority of those games are against group of 5 teams but with margins of victory and even getting into the drive or play metrics etc you can build out interconnected data. I mean, there may be an argument that sample sizes aren't particularly meaningful in college football and it's a weakness of analytics. I'm not sure if that is the case. But you can't make that argument and then flip it around and say "The SEC 1-5 bowl record serves to establish just how mediocre the balance of the SEC really is." thereby using a vastly smaller sample and claiming those outcomes are the proof the larger sample is too small. 

My comment was on the broad…

My comment was on the broad inferences based on the trees, not the forest. If you want to argue that over a long span of time and across many OOC, CFP, bowl games etc the SEC may be overhyped and that the conference's strength is really more of a reflection of Alabama being the dominant team of the last ~13 years (perhaps with a sprinkling of Kirby era GA thrown in) I would tend to agree.

 

That conclusion based on a larger more meaningful volume of football games does not change the fact that drawing conclusions based on six bowl games where rosters of most bowl teams are in disarray due to COVID, opt outs, portal etc is not a good way to analyze the SEC. Or the B1G or any other conference for that matter. Similarly, I don't think that for example the fact the Big 12 had the best bowl record in 2020 proves in some way they were underrated and a deep conference. 

 

The argument stands on its own, the fact that you or I say so or don't doesn't matter. Not sure why you are choosing to be pissy because I have a different opinion? But anyway, have a nice new year and Go Blue! 

 

So season long analytics are…

So season long analytics are flawed due to small sample sized constraints and limited conference interactions. Alright. The SEC would play ~56 OOC games since 14 teams x 4 OOC opponents. And the limitations of this modeling of SEC quality based on the insufficient data of 56 games plus conference play is demonstrated by a poor SEC record in a sample of 6 bowl games? 

Between COVID impacts, opt…

Between COVID impacts, opt outs, backups fleeing to the portal, and the randomness of playing a game against whatever mismatched opponent after a month off these games are all pretty meaningless. I tuned in for the slight schadenfreude solace of a Sparty football loss after watching our bball trainwreck last night, and instead I get a 3rd string Pitt QB throwing an INT to an MSU team w/o their 1600 yard rusher. None of it means anything, which is very #2021 I guess. Clearly the SEC is top heavy and quite meh past AL/GA but these games have depth impacts from COVID and the portal that result in different rosters than the regular season. Top end draft talent is not playing so the whole bowl record angle is neither here nor there. 

Diabate needs a lot of…

Diabate needs a lot of development but he is super twitchy and will be a first rounder IMO. There isn't much upside to Dickinson staying another year. The traits that wont make him highly coveted by the NBA aren't going to get better with another year so he might as well start making money however that shakes out, NBA or overseas. I mean I could be wrong but I assume both are gone next year. 

I thought they played…

I thought they played alright through whatever it was, the 15 minute mark of the 2nd half but when things started going back they didn't respond. I thought Howard's technical was trying to spark them up rather than the charge call itself but didn't work. They also didn't adjust and make UCF go to the rim as they were going off, they should have started overplaying the jumpers at some point.

 

Longer term on the season I don't see the improvement I would have hoped to have seen from the younger guys especially defensively. Clearly the roster plus the next class isn't going to cut it for next year. They are going to have to hit the portal hard for a 3 and D wing, and a post with both Dickinson and Diabate likely gone plus Jones and Brooks too. This may be a not so good team for longer than expected. 

Houstan is just not a good…

Houstan is just not a good college level player, I do not see how he was so highly regarded. He's basically wing sized but doesn't have true wing skills. The iso defense is just not good. Noted on kenpom that we were #1 in Defensive A/FGM because guys keep getting worked 1 on 1. But also, with their Mayhem and Green you can see how important it is to have guys who can get buckets and we really don't have a guard/wing who can do that. Even Brooks is great at his game but limited at creating his own shot. Intensity is lacking. I guess if I were trying to reach for a positive I would say Jones looked a bit more comfortable. Kobe hitting a couple shots. UCF did get lucky, I mean they hit a ridiculous % of perimeter shots in the 2nd half but whatever, who cares, this team is not improving. Oy.  

Seems like the sort of…

Seems like the sort of policy that gets changed if it actually comes into reality and big baller TV advertising dollars are subject to the same forfeiture. I'd guess they postpone it until they can play if it comes to that. 

Don't turn it into a JB vs…

Don't turn it into a JB vs Juwan thing. Wagner, Brown, M. Smith only ever played under Howard at M and Davis was a much better post despite his limitations after Juwan got here. Livers is the only guy who is a really was from the Beilein time that is now gone. Juwan has some roster construction issues here and it's clear that Houstan isn't truly a one and done caliber recruit, and that Jones isn't what we hoped. The defense is not good, as is typical of very young teams. Beilein had some similarly tough times, how quickly people forget where things were in 2015, 2016, and much of 2017. And frankly this team would be a lot better if two of the seniors that are holdover Beilein guys in Johns and Nunez were providing value. I mean a senior sniper is exactly what this team needs but Nunez has never been up to it and Johns is completely unreliable from game to game. 

Not really, he's 18 which is…

Not really, he's 18 which is the normal freshman age. The should still be in high school thing is based on his being Canadian where they go to school for another year. If his academic progression had been in the US from the jump he'd have been in freshman class same as he is. 

I don't see anything wrong…

I don't see anything wrong with that. I'm fond of guys who came in just for a year like Jake Rudock, Chaundee Brown, Mike Smith etc. And honestly Walker had a pretty amazing impact for a transfer who was just a guy at Wake Forest. 

While I am on Team…

While I am on Team Fancystats, this glitch in the matrix has come up with Kenpom and some other models too. Gonzaga basketball, which is outstanding, but also has been #1 or #2 in kenpom for 5 of the past 6 years to date is the best example. When you dominate mediocre competition by extraordinary margins after overwhelming them athletically this can be modeled as superior performance relative to that of teams that win by smaller margins against strong competition. The performance doesn't seem to hold up as well when such teams go against similar caliber competition. This issue seems to be particularly true for teams with stifling defenses FWIW. 

27-13 win

27-13 win

I went to go re-watch the…

I went to go re-watch the game on YouTube and his remix of the game was one of the first results that came up. Said something about him being a student now. 

I'm still excited to watch…

I'm still excited to watch the young players develop but it's clear this year is going to be a struggle. The lack of shooters is concerning beyond this season, that will have to be addressed in the portal probably. Jones does seem to be in over his head and he's not a real PG, he's a combo guard without the quickness or size to be a good 2 and doesn't have the handle to be a 1. Need to continue shifting minutes to Collins and more time for Bufkin too. So many issues. It really does look like an Amaker team at this point. 

You don't need 4 shooters,…

You don't need 4 shooters, but you need more than one and right now everyone not named Eli Brooks is shooting 24-95 from 3 which would be 25%. 

Seriously? A guy writing for…

Seriously? A guy writing for CBS Sports, an entity that has literally paid the SEC over a billion dollars in the last 25 years for football broadcast rights, and offered $300 million/year last year before losing those rights to Disney for SEC games is complaining about the corruption of football due to the influence of money? 

Yeah those last four games…

Yeah those last four games are against Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Illinois. I'm gonna go with low level of competition vs improvement given that they played three bad teams and had 277 yards of offense against MN. 

I dunno. I mean, I tend to…

I dunno. I mean, I tend to think Kelly is a jerk as he appears to be an angry dude. But is there anything you can really say in that situation that won't come off poorly? You can try to indicate you care about players and staff but at the end of the day if you are making a business decision everyone is going to understand that it's all about money and emotional sentiments will come off as hollow. I don't think you can overcame the reality of the decision itself.

 

I do wonder if he had any even control over that situation at all. Maybe, maybe not. In a transfer portal world, if you are the AD don't you have a strong incentive to make him seem to a jerk to everyone to stem any potential defections? Maybe I am too cold hearted but if I were AD, I would have told him no meeting with players and had IT send the Well...Bye gif from Tombstone to every player from his (now repossessed) work cell phone. 

MSU is in a class on their…

MSU is in a class of their own for what they did with that contract:

  • Riley is 55-10 with 4x conference champs and 3x CFP appearances
  • Kelly is 113-39 with 2x CFP appearances, and built strong teams at GVSU, CMU, and Cincy too.
  • Tucker is 17-14 and his primary achievement is one season of winning close games in which his teams were outplayed and a borderline top 25 team that managed to win all 4 close games they were in when they really were something more like a lucky 8-4 team by fancy stats. This would basically be equivalent to M giving $100 million to Hoke after the 2011 Sugar Bowl 11-2 season. Real nice year...but a bit of a mirage. Tucker may well turn out to be a good coach, but Sparty is paying him like he is a proven great coach. 
Opposite sides of town…

Opposite sides of town. Contingency tornado planning. 

I agree with all this but I…

I agree with all this but I think the main point is still that playing Cincinnati or OK State is a pretty favorable matchup all things considered for the CFP. And vastly preferable to going against Georgia or Alabama in a semifinal. 

I wouldn't rule out Houston…

The dreaded double post, but I'm blaming the server. :)

I wouldn't rule out Houston…

I wouldn't rule out Houston. Preserves the no two loss team precedent, quiets talk about it being P5 only, and 12-1 with a win over Cincinnati is a solid resume. Past that I think if they let in Alabama off of a loss to GA with 2 losses and seeing that they really should have lost by Georgia it is a bad look for the committee. Oregon at least can offer the conference championship. Nice to see teams rewarded for going on the road to play tough non-conference games too. 

Probably around 87-89, that…

Probably around 87-89, that was a legit rebuild. Probably 2001 as well. Not buying 2012 after the transition meh team, too much talent. 

52 - 27 evil team. 

52 - 27 evil team. 

The Arizona game is Sunday…

The Arizona game is Sunday not Saturday to my understanding.

Coming out party for Diabate…
  • Coming out party for Diabate. Rim protection is even better than advertised. Showed aggressiveness, a little shooting (but still FTs....) and some post moves. More well rounded game than he had shown to date.
  • Jones = too many turnovers and just not enough creation. It does look like he might not be up to billing. He is a really good rebounder for his size but his handle is just not that tight and he isn't that much of a playmaker. His floater is nice but he'll have a hard time getting space to get it off. 
  • Brooks is Brooks, for those frustrated with the freshman remember how lost Brooks was like 3 or 4 years ago. He basically stopped shooting in B1G play that year. 
  • Houstan had another rough night and his play feels rushed. Showed confidence in his shot but he seems out of his depth to date. Will get better. 
  • Johns was passive in the first half but much more assertive in the 2nd. Baffling why he can't always play that way but it was good to see. 
  • TWill with some questionable shot selection.
  • Need more post touches for Dickinson, 9 shots is not enough. 
  • Overall, I thought it was a decent game, more assertiveness, and Diabate showed a lot. UNLV knocked down a good number of bad shots. Defensive rotations/switching still bad. Jones doesn't need to score IMO but he needs better ball handling and looks uncomfortable in the backcourt which you wouldn't expect from an experienced PG. I mean, at some level they just need more out of Houston especially, you can't have a wing going 1-9 and a better ballhandling out of Jones too. I don't want to get too down on them but some trends are a bit concerning. 
  • I'm glad it's midnight and not 3AM for me. 

 

Shoulda been a jump ball…

Shoulda been a jump ball. Jones can't finish. 

 

Also I want to see more of Kobe but man, dude looks like he weighs 150 pounds. 

It's tough, the spacing isn…

It's tough, the spacing isn't great with Diabate and Dickinson on the court at the same time but I think you have to do it anyway a fair amount to get Diabate on the floor given the options.