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This post is genuinely…

This post is genuinely adorable. I'll give you the simplest answer: yes this still exists, it's called Upon Further Review. Expect it in two installments (offense + defense) across two days. One may be later this afternoon, but most likely they will be Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. 

Good stuff. I definitely…

Good stuff. I definitely agree that the key here is to force OSU to drive the whole field. They'll do it a bunch, but if you force some field goals and force a mistake or two while shortening the game, you absolutely have a shot. 


One question - to my eyes the last couple weeks Michigan gave two inferior rushing teams a fairly light box and dared them to move the ball that way in PSU and Maryland. Both of those teams had a little more success on the ground than expected but limited passing game and big play success. It sort of felt like OSU prep in that regard. Is my read there accurate, or was that something else entirely? 

Seth, I think the strong…

Seth, I think the strong reactions is because when you say "Did you guys skip the part where I talked for many paragraphs about why I think there's something off in my RPS scores" - I didn't feel like that was conveyed here by you at all even if that was your intent. Here are two quotes from this exact UFR. 

 

"The short answer is Michigan outplayed a lot of their coaches’ bad decisions."

"Michigan’s offensive trust understands the concept that calling the good play will lead to yards, but not the why. I said last week I could live with this in a 33-7 game against Northwestern so long as they’re saving something vicious for Michigan State. They did not. Seven years after jettisoning Brady Hoke we’re back to the Black Adder sketch."

 

(bold mine)

My impression of your writing here was you were doubling down on the RPS score here and hot-taking off of it. I agree it seems super hard to do and I don't think the reaction would be nearly so strong if instead you just said hey maybe it's not quite calibrated right yet, here's the good and the bad. But instead you wrote the above quotes including that blazing hot bolded quote and put Josh Gattis in the "not so heroic" section on a day where Michigan got oodles of favorable passing game matchups and racked up 552 yards of offense. I think that's what rubbed me the wrong way - can't speak for others. 

I don't really understand…

I don't really understand your post exactly. I know what RPS is - I've read every single one of these for a decade. I'm saying the way it's being deployed right now is clearly broken. I think Seth hasn't quite figured out how to accurately bucket things and the magnitude seems wonky (go find a single -3 for a play that gains 20+ yards ever prior to this year in UFR history). That's fine and understandable - it seems really really hard! But like, be honest about that if so instead of doubling down and trying to insist Gattis held this offense back on Saturday. 

I'm not even debating…

I'm not even debating whether things are + or -, I literally am debating the actual number. Because the actual numbers are adding up to wonky totals that are then being used to lay blame at (IMO) the wrong places. And the actual totals do not pass the eye test at all. Sometimes the eye test is wrong, but I've given a clear example of why I think it is just a mis-calibrated system currently. 

Yeah this is pretty much it…

Yeah this is pretty much it. It's inconsistent, and I think Seth sort of agrees at least a little bit which is why he's then put in a position where he feels the need to justify it. 

 

After thinking about it some more, I think it's more about run vs pass grading. I think these higher variant grades are coming out on the ground, but in the passing game (where guys are being put into good positions constantly) Seth is a lot more reticent to hand out big numbers. He sort of alluded to this. And I think this offense from a scheme perspective is getting paid off in the passing game more than the running game because of its established tendencies. 

Yes but he did not grade it…

Yes but he did not grade it a -1. He graded it a -3, which is much larger in magnitude. That's a choice he's making that is going to dramatically increase minuses across the board. So if you're going to do that, you had better be handing out pluses in similar magnitude, and that's just not happening. 

 

Compare it to the Corum drop. Seth gave out a +1 for that. If Corum catches it, he beats one guy and it's 6. Do you really think the Haskins play he turned into 24 yards was 3x as bad as the Corum swing play was good? That's my problem. The magnitude is broken. 

The RPS numbers are so…

The RPS numbers are so ludicrous this season that they may as well be ignored. I'm sorry, but it's just not defensible. Literally handed out an RPS-3 on a 24 yard gain. And I watched the play, I understand Haskins made a play there on a doomed-looking play, but characterizing the most impressive offensive output of the season as a huge coaching loss is comical. This has been a persistent problem with this column this year, and I'm not sure what else to say. Let me try to be constructive here. 

 

In general it seems like Seth is being extremely liberal with handing out minuses. And I'm fine with the higher numbers in both directions if they're actually in both directions, but they aren't. Take a look at this play charted above:

 

https://gfycat.com/rightcreepyhyrax-andrel-anthony

 

I mean, look at this play. On the previous two plays Michigan got -5 for the aforementioned 24 yard run and a 1 yard run. That's harsh! But ok, if those are -5, then what is this play? You have McCarthy in, and you draw up a play that freezes MSU defenders because they're clearly thinking "McCarthy == running play" and this play not only has Schoonmaker as a viable dumpoff option here where he probably makes the first down, but it ALSO gets Anthony against a CB that initially is over-playing the run and then has to turn around and panic AND he has no safety help at all thanks to the aforementioned play design. It's a play that gives McCarthy multiple good options that are both highly likely to have good outcomes.


This is brilliant! If the previous two plays which gained 25 yards are a collective -5, this is at minimum a +3. It's graded here as a 0. There's stuff like this all over this UFR and it's baffling to me.


I dunno, I'm probably being too harsh. I'm sorry. But it's frustrating because it's resulting in some indefensible analysis. I think in general the RPS calibration is completely broken this year on both sides of the ball. Coordinators are taking RPS blame when players at positions are just not good enough but players are getting sole credit for plays that were setup to be easy for them. To me, this play sequence I'm mentioning here is a perfect example. Michigan has a 3-play sequence that gets over 40 yards and a TD and Gattis comes out -5 because all the credit are the players and all the blame is his. It's just broken. 

You are definitely correct…

You are definitely correct. Live this bothered me. "Knowing what you need" is pointless with 2-pt conversions because you want to convert it every single time no matter what the other team did. That benefit only exists in the first two overtimes because it informs whether to go for it on 4th downs. Illinois and PSU both definitely should have been using their selections on field side rather than going second. 

Fair. Expectations for the…

Fair. Expectations for the position are naturally higher now. I would like to know where you determined your top-20 numbers for 2000 and 2021 though. Just out of curiosity, not because I doubt them because they sound pretty plausible. 

 

But even so, your comparison is sort of splitting hairs. There's not much between those results. If you era-adjusted, the numbers would still be super close. 

Makes sense, thanks. 

Makes sense, thanks. 

MORE CYAN DISCOURSE.


But I…

MORE CYAN DISCOURSE.

But I don’t think anybody is arguing McNamara is Tom Brady.

 

 

Brady 1998: 62%, 7.5 yards/attempt, 14/10 TD/INT

Brady 1999: 61%, 7.5 yards/attempt, 16/6 TD/INT

McNamara 2021: 61%, 8.3 yards/attempt, 5/1 TD/INT

 

McNamara is literally college Tom Brady. (Not an NFL projection)

Seth, can you explain your…

Seth, can you explain your rubric for what bucket you put QB passes into for grading? I'm deeply confused how on the first 3rd and 5 you can have an incomplete pass that's marked DO that doesn't feature a WR error of any kind. I don't have much problem calling it CA I guess if you're grading on a pressure curve, but it's clearly a marginal throw. Upgrading it all the way to DO is confusing to me. 

Fox got a lot of shade here,…

Fox got a lot of shade here, but this terrible angle I think has something to do with the stadium because I instantly recognized this as the "Wisconsin home game camera angle." 

Is the season preview…

Is the season preview podcast still happening this year? Normally it's the week before preview week. 

It doesn't work. Do yourself

It doesn't work. Do yourself a favor and set it to extend by a half hour or hour instead. Found out the hard way myself.

The account isn't real

The account isn't real apparently: https://twitter.com/nickbaumgardner/status/530387209287761921

 

Huh? He was THE hot

Huh? He was THE hot coordinator for years at a bunch of major schools (Arkansas, Tulsa, Auburn when they won with Cam), then he head coached for 1 year at Arkansas State before returning to Auburn. He's been a big name for quite awhile 

Did anyone read the article?

"The San Francisco 49ers returned from their bye week on Monday and held a light practice at their facility that ended with a team photo of all the players who earned degrees wearing their respective college colors

And yes, coach Jim Harbaugh had on his Michigan colors underneath his 49ers fleece."

 

Everyone was doing it. It's a non-story.

Why not get upset at Dave

Why not get upset at Dave Brandon? Michigan is incredibly important to the Big Ten as the co-biggest ticket item with OSU. That means Michigan has a boatload of leverage on things like this, and Brandon did nothing. 

Great stuff. His pocket

Great stuff. His pocket presence is remarkably good. Also, I'd kill for Denard to scramble as much as Gardner does. 

 
I don't have any complaints

 

I don't have any complaints about the charting of Gardner. I don't think there's any argument that he had a good enough day passing, but not an exceptional one. However, for his first ever start after playing WR all year, I am mentally "rounding up" a bit.

 

Really though, Gardner's willingness to scramble is what made him more effective IMO in the passing game than Denard. Denard just doesn't scramble, he just doesn't. His worst throws tend to come on plays when he absolutely should be scrambling, whereas Gardner is perfectly happy to tuck and just run somewhere. That's the best way to minimize risk in the passing game really. So to me, that makes Gardner more effective as a passer and makes me optimistic for next year as I think he's a much more natural Borges fit than Denard - Borges will probably be more comfortable next year calling plays with Gardner since passing with Gardner is a bit less risky since he's so willing to just run. I don't think it's dumb for this game to make us optimistic at the thought of a whole spring camp with nothing but Gardner getting reps in an offense Borges is better at managing. 



However, there's no doubt that Denard really does an amazing job at masking our terrible, terrible running game. Gardner can't do that - he isn't the natural runner that Denard is. We're just a totally different team with each QB. Saying Gardner should be our starter over healthy Denard is still stupid. 

Logged in just to say this is

Logged in just to say this is the worst comment I've seen on this board in a long time. I see he has -899825 MGoPoints. My only question is, why isn't it lower? Surely that calls for at least -1million right? Just another thousand or so is needed. 

I'll be much more bummed if

I'll be much more bummed if we miss out on him than Green or anyone else. It's been way too long since we've had a true elite WR. 

Got it, thanks. Complaint

Got it, thanks. Complaint redcated then. 

If Saban can produce some

If Saban can produce some concrete data that shows injuries increase as tempo increases, then I'd be ok with considering something like this. I strongly suspect that will not be possible though, so definitely no, it should not be regulated. 

Why is Thorin a mod here? I

Why is Thorin a mod here? I don't post much, and the first time I tried to blockquote I messed it up. I edited it, fixed a few, then went back to fix the rest and he locked it so I was unable to edit it. Just seemed so childish, but whatever. Now we're losing a very cool UFR feature because he's whiny. 

I will say, despite how

I will say, despite how frustrating Borges is with the Denard offense, I am at least encouraged about what things will look like in a few years with Shane Morris slinging the ball downfield to big receivers sprung open by Borges Sorcery. I do believe he'll be a good coordinator once the right personnel is in place, but this stopgap time with such a unique player at QB is so frustrating. 

Good stuff. I'm especially

Good stuff. I'm especially interested to see Morgan's progression from last year. He struggled a lot last year, but he was the Least Terrible at the weakest position on the field. He seems far more comfortable out there, and he's become a respectable starter now in his 2nd year. This gives me a lot of hope for the upsides of Bolden, Clark, Ross, etc. I feel like the individual position coaching upgrade under this regime is just as noticeable as the scheme upgrade. 

  I'm stepping into

I'm stepping into dangerous territory bringing this up, but did anyone else watch the Oregon/Arizona game and get an enormous sense of deja vu? NOT trying to bring up old debates, and yes I know it's his first year and all that, but I just thought Arizona's performance looked really familiar. In the first half especially they moved the ball at will against Oregon and just couldn't score. I think they were something like 0/6 in the red zone, including weird turnovers, special teams gaffes, failed 4th down conversions, crappy fumble recovery luck, etc. I remember watching the first two drives and being envious of the offense design and thinking how familiar it all looked, and then I saw the repeated collapses and continued lack of points and remembered how familiar that felt too. 

 
I don't know, it was just interesting. I'm vaguely interested in seeing how he does there, but NO please don't schedule Arizona. Please. 
 
I can't believe Brian hasn't

I can't believe Brian hasn't seen that and mentioned it. 

Please, please, please some

Please, please, please some NFL team hire Chip Kelly. I'm dying to see him take a crappy team and try to go all-in and see what happens. 

I've seen no evidence to

I've seen no evidence to suggest spread punts get blocked more often...

Heiko keeps transcribing the

Heiko keeps transcribing the bubble screen banter and insisting it's happening, and we keep seeing videos uploaded without that question present. I keep envisioning the press conference ending and Borges running back to the video guy and slipping him a $20 to make sure the bubble screen stuff gets cut out of the video just to troll us all. I KNOW THIS IS WHAT'S HAPPENING. 

I don't think any amount of

I don't think any amount of rationalization will really make me feel better. The only thing that will do that is results against non-Alabama teams. 

Not sure what happened. I

Not sure what happened. I fixed some of them and tried to fix the rest and now I can't edit it. Oops. 

I don't know, I read it, and

I don't know, I read it, and sure you're entitled to your opinion, but my opinion is you're wrong. The main issue here is this statement:

 

From my perspective, does not understand football scheming well enough to make SOME of the statements he does [see note 1].

 
The glaring thing is from reading these things you've written, it's pretty obvious your level of knowledge is below Brian's. That's totally fine. However, it doesn't give you great credentials to make that statement. Second, if you're going to say it, it needs to be backed up intelligently. Paragraphs like this:
 

What drives me crazy is that the biased thought process leads to unfair or incorrect assumptions.  I am sure that Denard's few runs of the game, upon further analysis, will show a larger YPC than Smith's.  Well, yes, they will because they were the exception, THEY WERE THE "CONSTRAINT" PLAYS. They are the plays that catch the defense offguard or cheating, so they can find some room that the standard plays may not.  The problem is if you keep going back to them, they are not constraint plays, they are just more stopped plays.

 
That's a total mess. Problems with this paragraph alone:
 
1) It implies Smith is a better runner than Denard and Denard only gets his yards off constraint plays. That is ludicrous. 
2) Denard got most of his yards off scrambles/improvisation in this game and not runs. So I'm not even sure where you're getting this point from. 
3) The constraint thing is just not even true. What was the defense cheating against exactly? 
 

A common theme around here is how "NFL ready" much of Alabama's team is.  How many NFL teams run an offense around the read option?  That, to me, is very telling.

 
This is yet another example of a statement that is kind of crazy. Also, your whole premise for this statement was that Alabama was bigger & faster and THAT'S why it didn't work, and therefore that's why it doesn't work in the NFL... Um, in the NFL the teams are pretty much equals. Make up your mind which it is ;). Finally:
 

;I apologize for the rant but I just see this loss as the confirmation Brian needs that RR's offense was the tactically best in college football (not saying he wants RR as our coach, in any regard), and I think I speak for a number of people who have not voiced their opinion.

 
STOP NO NO NO PLEASE NOT THIS AGAIN. 
So relieved to hear Lewan is

So relieved to hear Lewan is fine. Could use some good news. 

Did you miss the 10k+ words

Did you miss the 10k+ words Brian has written the last few days? Little bit of an  unusual week here. 

This actually reads so much

This actually reads so much like Brian's writing that I assumed the disclaimer at the top meant Brian wrote it but Ace posted it for him. From seeing these comments though it sounds like I'm wrong. Or maybe I'm just whooshing really hard right now. 

 

I don't see why missing a

 

I don't see why missing a game is an absolute necessity as a measure of integrity or something. I get the feeling that around here, the purpose is to maintain a bit of a superiority thing because we feel hypocritical after bashing MSU/ND for letting kids off on similar things. To me, this is a nonstarter. Policy should not be determined by what other schools do, so strike that out immediately. 
 
Anyways, like somebody said, there are more punishments than missing a game. We have no idea what his is. I'm expecting he'll miss the game and I'm 100% behind Hoke if he sits him, but I'm not going to get all self-righteous if he plays either. Hoke has earned my trust to make the right decision here. 
 

I cheat and take the easy

 

I cheat and take the easy way out. If Ohio is in a similar big nonconference game, I just watch without rooting for one team or the other. I try to watch it academically instead. I then conjure up my internal optimist and look at the outcome as a win-win. If Ohio wins, I grit my teeth and look at it as a badly-needed boost for the B1G. If Ohio loses, YESSSS OHIO LOST. 
 
In the end though, my preference is always that Ohio plays really well and just barely loses at the very end of the game, preferably as painfully as possible. That way they lose (I'm happy) but the B1G team still "showed up" which spares us the embarassment we've gotten in recent years. I don't think there's really a right answer though. 
One request - if using the

One request - if using the jump to break up articles is going to become a normal thing, is it possible to make the "read more" link jump to the spot you were reading? That's how most sites work, but this always returns me to the top, and I have to scroll or ctrl+f to find my place again. It's a minor thing so I don't care that much, but it would be a nice feature. 

It sounds like this is

It sounds like this is against protocol, but it's been brought up here, so I'll ask. Can I get a brief explanation of who he-who-shall-not-be-named is and what he's done to gain so much infamy? Yes I plugged his name into the search bar and all I got was a bunch of threads where people were scolded for talking about him. Much appreciated. 

Nobody wants Kovacs?

Nobody wants Kovacs?

I don't think I really

I don't think I really understand the stance of most people here on this kind of thing. I didn't understand the outrage over the Michael Floyd thing, and I don't understand the "he MUST miss several weeks" thing for this. Why is it a necessity that he must miss games for this? You have to consider the following things when determining a punishment:

 

1) Is this a first offense?

2) How did he respond when confronted, punished, etc? 

3) What were the circumstances surrounding the incident? 

4) How strong of a punishment is necessary to sufficiently communicate that this can never happen again?

 

If you get the answer to #1-3 and you feel the answer to #4 is something less severe than missing a game, then that's fine with me. Hoke seems like a very smart guy who handles his players well, so I'd trust his judgment. He's a nice blend between no-nonsense but also very human. If he thinks game suspension, great, if not, that's fine with me too because I trust hiim to do the due diligence on the above things. Shrug. 

I would say they definitely

I would say they definitely sell Michigan, but there's an art to selling something without it necessarily appearing that you are selling it. You don't pull in the kind of recruiting classes Hoke and company have been doing without being a very sharp salesman. That doesn't mean those kids are lying, but it means Hoke and company are doing THAT good of a job that it doesn't feel like a sales pitch to the kids. 

Someone will give Denard a

Someone will give Denard a shot at QB. I think people forget that Denard's numbers in college are actually much more impressive than Vick's ever were at Virginia Tech. Granted, Denard is in an offense that suits him more than VT's suited Vick, but it's not ludicrous for a team to seriously draft him as a QB. Drafting him in the first round to be a QB is probably silly, but given his sheer athleticism I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him go in the 2nd. 

Even if he doesn't work out at QB, anyone with his level of disgusting athleticism will get him a shot as a WR/CB/return specialist. It's the same reason why teams like to draft stud OTs in the first round - even if they "bust" you just move them inside and they're fine. It's low-risk. Denard becomes low risk to some extent in the 2nd round and definitely in the 3rd because if he busts out at QB, you can always have him return punts and try to teach him WR/CB. He'll probably be the fastest guy on your team the moment you draft him, and that's always worth something in the NFL. 

When did anyone talk about

When did anyone talk about 2008? Article never mentions it. It really just talks about the Denard-era offense.

Exactly

I think a lot of commenters here are missing the point. The author is conceding that D/ST was horrific and the main problem. That said, if the offense was more efficient it might have been able to better overcome the defense, and it didn't. It's overall a pretty fair article, though I also think it's a bit short-sighted given I think it's safe to assume the offense would diversify a bit in year 2 of Denard (kinda like it did this year adding the veer and such).