I got to 100 looking for vandy and gave up, deciding this was a pointless ranking. ND and Vandy are both top 20 nationally by most other standards and are 130+ and 230+ on this one.
Each place is going to open at different places, but I'm surprised to find a 4.5 point spread between two books. Curious where it'll settle
"The Wynn also posted opening pointspreads on each of the four other BCS bowls, with the Sugar Bowl matchup between Michigan and Virginia Tech garnering the most early buzz. The Hokies opened as 3-point favorites over the Wolverines, but Michigan was the early favorite offshore. The Wolverines were favored by 1.5 at BetCris.com."
Which arguement falls flat? The best two teams? didn't both mich and OSU get clobbered in their bowls that year? Looking back, the BCS was absolutely right.
Bama and LSU takes away the chance to be conclusive and gives us a rematch. So if Bama wins by 3, then what happens. LSU plays a harder schedule, takes the conference championship, beats alabama once, but loses the "official" title game. do you call it a split championship? give it to bama? crap out a brick and say no one wins?
And the predicator doesn't mean anything when the BCS only uses the ELO Chase, so I guess that makes use third? And don't we sit behind a boatload of B.1.G teams in the rankings already? We're getting WAAYYY ahead of ourselves talking about BCS implications.
I expected UM to be favored by 23 or 24. Minnesota is terrible and potentially having the head coach out? Not good. 20 isn't a bad starting point, but I expect it to edge upward as fans genearlly like UM and favorites.
Wisconsin hasn't played anyone, but nebraskas defense hasn't been good. They've won games by putting up 40 points and they've need most of them. Wisc by 10 seems about right to me.
Not sure what I think about OSU/MSU. I don't anticipate Miller playing well, so I doubt OSU gets many points, but at home and with the MSU o-line, I think it'll be interesting. I'd probably take MSU with the line right now.
I expect Alabama to dominate ... the defense is beastly.
The point is he's using the word "when" instead of "if". I think I like the move by the sec, just curious who else they'll take; as a 14th is inevitable.
You should probably make this a diary. I like UGA to top SC and I can hold out hope that Vandy actually wins. Uconn has a new coach and Todman graduated, so we'll see what happens. The line has moved a bunch since the open (uconn was favored by five by one book), so the sharps are on vandy a ton.
MTSU has been pretty decent the past few years, I know a few people who played on their team about 10 years ago. They seem to have high hopes for the raiders this season.
Totally agree. It's been terrible watching them over the past few seasons. They've had a great start to recruting for 2012 (for vandy's standards), hopefully he can finish out strong.
I live in west nashville. There are a few other people on the board that live in the area as well. Arguing with anyone in the SEC is a lost cause, they just talk about their string of championships and generally have no other arguments. Not very enjoyable.
If they're shooting for 23-25 then there's plenty of space left. I don't know if the coaches have directly said thid or if I've heard it from 100 other people on this board, but they like taking at least 1 qb every year. The coaches know what they're doing as far as recruiting.
That response wasn't meant for you, there's a comment "hidden" between yours and his by Mrohblue. He wasn't suggesting you should have already known the answer.
The area is growing on me. It's taken a while, but the weather is decent, not overly congested, and the people are friendly. I haven't made it to the West Brewhouse, usually I'll watch games downtown at Sams, Sportsmans, or the Crowes Nest, but that would be much closer. I'll give it a look next season.
I've lived in Bellevue the past two years (no flooding) after graduating from Vandy. Southerners can't drive for their lives (I'm sure this is going to offend someone, but driving 50 in a 55 is not cool). I'm finally (after 6+ years) starting to enjoy living here.
First time I got in on this deal it took more than two months for me as well. I think they say 8-10 weeks and they use nearly every day of it. ESPN has a few ways to activate the insider, but the easiest is using your magazine subscription code on the front of the magazine.
i got in on a few of these, and probably have a subscription for the next decade. The insider rumors are terrible for College Football. Albert Lin is as useless as Chris Martin.
true true, arena football wouldn't get much action, a 6k bet would make a lot of people take a second look at the line. i guess my comment was meant more towards big betting events.
lol, insiders will eventually figure out where they see value and will bet accordingly. They're the ones that can drop a grand on this without sweating. I'm guessing the majority comes in on UM while mullens future is in doubt. Whenever he makes a decision there will likely be more even action.
Lines (usually) won't move more than a half point at a time, and usually there's a 10% fee tacked on for the house. If you win, you get the 10% back (+ your winnings)
Probably suicide to admit this, but for a starting line I'm surprised it wasn't larger. MSU has only lost to ranked teams and beaten everyone else, they're currently ranked, and we had a terrible ATS, and the public is obsessed with the SEC. They aren't stellar at anything, but also don't have any painfully obvious flaws (ie defense or special fg kicking). They kept close with Auburn, which may hold some weight when people are looking for value in spreads.
With that being said, I think RR will have this team ready for the game. I remember at some point in the past, Mathlete pointing out that the games with a week break were the best of the season (probably said before the PSU game ...). Meaning the Utah game and UConn game (and deleware last season?). But I'd never bet on this game.
I'm combining all of my thoughts into one post ... I have no bone to pick with Harbaugh vs. RR. Everything below is hypothetical and isn't the intent of my argument.
you don't think it's in any way plausible that DB is waiting til after January 3rd to save money on firing RR (if he intended too)?
As the former CEO of dominos and the fact that every athletic program struggles to break even, do you really think he's in the position to blow 1.5 mil on whatever he wants. As fans this all seems completely ridiculous that he'd dick around with a program for a few weeks, but as a BUSINESS, the most logical action is to minimize losses. If we decide to go another direction with the football program, it's going to take a few years to get back to where we want to be. One recruiting class isn't the biggest problem in the world, and really we're talking a half dozen recruits that may or may not fit into a new coaches system. 3 weeks isn't equal to 1.5 mil. And trying to implement a new program in 3 weeks is ridiculous as well.
Second, someone above said UM is enormously wealthy (since i started writing this apparently he checked his figures, so i guess i can stop talking about this now).
Third, to the OP. I, personally, don't beieve it. I trust your source has heard rumors, but I can't fathom harbaugh would sign a new contract at Stanford unless it had 0 effect on the existing buyouts. Going to the NFL is an option for him, UM, another program that's significantly better than stanford, etc.
Fourth, irregardless really bothered me too. It took me about 5 minutes to process that sentence. pet peeve for me as well.
I'd like to thank Incognito for running the league. I'd like to thank my parents, Lou Holtz, the girl next door, and everyone else who has helped me throughout my life.
Last year I tanked in the bowl pick'em, so you probably don't have to worry much about on that end.
Some of the bigger betters even "set up" some of the bookies. They'll place a "small" bet on one side to move the line one way and then drop 4x much on the other.
For example, line starts at 5.5 for mich/wisc
Person X puts 2500 on Wisconsin, and gets the line to 6.5, then goes back and drops 10k on michigan.
I like you, and your thoughts. People always gloss over this, but lines move throughout the week based on single bets and betting trends. I believe Miami Ohio/Akron was on tuesday (akron and somebody), the line moved 4 points toward akron and they hadn't won a game. The spread was under 10 by game time and Akron covered.
Personally (feel free to disagree), I see Vegas as the best power ranking. The people willing to drop tons of cash on these games have algorithms and other methods to determine the value of XYZ team. They take all emotion out of it and look at the numbers. Reverse trend lines are generally a huge indication of this. Mich/Wisc is an example of this, majority of the public is putting money on Wisconsin (favorite, 9-1, etc), while the spread is moving toward michigan. Obviously, someone dropped serious cash on Michigan at 6, 5.5, 5, and 4.5.
Recent Comments
If interested, full audio here. 2.5 minutes.
https://soundcloud.com/nashsportsradio/josh-in-c-bus-10-24-16
Green is not a creative color!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9C_HReR_McQ
mason isn't going anywhere. AD loves the guy and vandy tends to give their guys time to work through problems. problems tend to last a while ...
Thanks. Working well for me.
Did I get to the party too late?
Just for the record, 247 has him at #255. Shown in the notes at the bottom.
I got to 100 looking for vandy and gave up, deciding this was a pointless ranking. ND and Vandy are both top 20 nationally by most other standards and are 130+ and 230+ on this one.
games.espn.go.com/college-pickem/en/group?groupID=9046
That's the link for the group. I ended up at 99.6, ranked about 1000 overall.
Dominated the pickem during the season, may as well try to double up and win this too.
Each place is going to open at different places, but I'm surprised to find a 4.5 point spread between two books. Curious where it'll settle
"The Wynn also posted opening pointspreads on each of the four other BCS bowls, with the Sugar Bowl matchup between Michigan and Virginia Tech garnering the most early buzz. The Hokies opened as 3-point favorites over the Wolverines, but Michigan was the early favorite offshore. The Wolverines were favored by 1.5 at BetCris.com."
I was pretty surprised too. ACC has been pretty weak this season. I was thinking 4-4.5 initially.
It is the "Early" line, so ... we'll see what kind of movement we get. Usually the first couple hours get a lot of push in one diretion or the other.
Which arguement falls flat? The best two teams? didn't both mich and OSU get clobbered in their bowls that year? Looking back, the BCS was absolutely right.
Bama and LSU takes away the chance to be conclusive and gives us a rematch. So if Bama wins by 3, then what happens. LSU plays a harder schedule, takes the conference championship, beats alabama once, but loses the "official" title game. do you call it a split championship? give it to bama? crap out a brick and say no one wins?
Can I get a link to the full article?
Have to agree with you. It was amusing while we were undefeated. not so much anymore. ranked 20 isn't something to brag about
And the predicator doesn't mean anything when the BCS only uses the ELO Chase, so I guess that makes use third? And don't we sit behind a boatload of B.1.G teams in the rankings already? We're getting WAAYYY ahead of ourselves talking about BCS implications.
How does their rating system work? 2 kids with ratings over 100?
It was, thanks for the info.
I'd also be interested in seeing the OSU-Neb expected win percentage chart.
People will bet michigan regardless of the line ... they could have set it at UM -7 and you'd still get a boatload of people buying.
And if they did set the line poorly, people with big bank rolls will just keep buying til it's in it's "rightful" place.
Betting percentages for those that are interested.
http://www.sportsinsights.com/college-football-betting-trends.aspx
I expected UM to be favored by 23 or 24. Minnesota is terrible and potentially having the head coach out? Not good. 20 isn't a bad starting point, but I expect it to edge upward as fans genearlly like UM and favorites.
Wisconsin hasn't played anyone, but nebraskas defense hasn't been good. They've won games by putting up 40 points and they've need most of them. Wisc by 10 seems about right to me.
Not sure what I think about OSU/MSU. I don't anticipate Miller playing well, so I doubt OSU gets many points, but at home and with the MSU o-line, I think it'll be interesting. I'd probably take MSU with the line right now.
I expect Alabama to dominate ... the defense is beastly.
line has already dropped down to 7.5 or 8. that seems about right to me.
i also found the opening line for EMU and PSU interesting. PSU opened at 28, which was lower than where we closed.
Or one of the other 200 in the area ...
The point is he's using the word "when" instead of "if". I think I like the move by the sec, just curious who else they'll take; as a 14th is inevitable.
You should probably make this a diary. I like UGA to top SC and I can hold out hope that Vandy actually wins. Uconn has a new coach and Todman graduated, so we'll see what happens. The line has moved a bunch since the open (uconn was favored by five by one book), so the sharps are on vandy a ton.
opened at 1.5, up to 4.5 at some places already. not a good start.
Feldmans gone, not sure I can come up with a reason to have insider anymore. Magazine has been tossed in the trash for as long as I can remember.
For those interested in the mag, this is a decent price.
MTSU has been pretty decent the past few years, I know a few people who played on their team about 10 years ago. They seem to have high hopes for the raiders this season.
Totally agree. It's been terrible watching them over the past few seasons. They've had a great start to recruting for 2012 (for vandy's standards), hopefully he can finish out strong.
I wonder who is getting a scholarship and who is paying their own way ... Nice to have every recruit
I live in west nashville. There are a few other people on the board that live in the area as well. Arguing with anyone in the SEC is a lost cause, they just talk about their string of championships and generally have no other arguments. Not very enjoyable.
If they're shooting for 23-25 then there's plenty of space left. I don't know if the coaches have directly said thid or if I've heard it from 100 other people on this board, but they like taking at least 1 qb every year. The coaches know what they're doing as far as recruiting.
That response wasn't meant for you, there's a comment "hidden" between yours and his by Mrohblue. He wasn't suggesting you should have already known the answer.
I want to add useless stuff to the board too.
This will do the job.
The area is growing on me. It's taken a while, but the weather is decent, not overly congested, and the people are friendly. I haven't made it to the West Brewhouse, usually I'll watch games downtown at Sams, Sportsmans, or the Crowes Nest, but that would be much closer. I'll give it a look next season.
I've lived in Bellevue the past two years (no flooding) after graduating from Vandy. Southerners can't drive for their lives (I'm sure this is going to offend someone, but driving 50 in a 55 is not cool). I'm finally (after 6+ years) starting to enjoy living here.
I don't often see people from Nashville in the forums, what area of town are you in?
First time I got in on this deal it took more than two months for me as well. I think they say 8-10 weeks and they use nearly every day of it. ESPN has a few ways to activate the insider, but the easiest is using your magazine subscription code on the front of the magazine.
i got in on a few of these, and probably have a subscription for the next decade. The insider rumors are terrible for College Football. Albert Lin is as useless as Chris Martin.
Ah yes, a few key calls have resulted in UM being down 31 at the end of the 3rd quarter ...
true true, arena football wouldn't get much action, a 6k bet would make a lot of people take a second look at the line. i guess my comment was meant more towards big betting events.
lol, insiders will eventually figure out where they see value and will bet accordingly. They're the ones that can drop a grand on this without sweating. I'm guessing the majority comes in on UM while mullens future is in doubt. Whenever he makes a decision there will likely be more even action.
Lines (usually) won't move more than a half point at a time, and usually there's a 10% fee tacked on for the house. If you win, you get the 10% back (+ your winnings)
Probably suicide to admit this, but for a starting line I'm surprised it wasn't larger. MSU has only lost to ranked teams and beaten everyone else, they're currently ranked, and we had a terrible ATS, and the public is obsessed with the SEC. They aren't stellar at anything, but also don't have any painfully obvious flaws (ie defense or special fg kicking). They kept close with Auburn, which may hold some weight when people are looking for value in spreads.
With that being said, I think RR will have this team ready for the game. I remember at some point in the past, Mathlete pointing out that the games with a week break were the best of the season (probably said before the PSU game ...). Meaning the Utah game and UConn game (and deleware last season?). But I'd never bet on this game.
never had a double post before ... i don't like them. sorry
I'm combining all of my thoughts into one post ... I have no bone to pick with Harbaugh vs. RR. Everything below is hypothetical and isn't the intent of my argument.
you don't think it's in any way plausible that DB is waiting til after January 3rd to save money on firing RR (if he intended too)?
As the former CEO of dominos and the fact that every athletic program struggles to break even, do you really think he's in the position to blow 1.5 mil on whatever he wants. As fans this all seems completely ridiculous that he'd dick around with a program for a few weeks, but as a BUSINESS, the most logical action is to minimize losses. If we decide to go another direction with the football program, it's going to take a few years to get back to where we want to be. One recruiting class isn't the biggest problem in the world, and really we're talking a half dozen recruits that may or may not fit into a new coaches system. 3 weeks isn't equal to 1.5 mil. And trying to implement a new program in 3 weeks is ridiculous as well.
Second, someone above said UM is enormously wealthy (since i started writing this apparently he checked his figures, so i guess i can stop talking about this now).
Third, to the OP. I, personally, don't beieve it. I trust your source has heard rumors, but I can't fathom harbaugh would sign a new contract at Stanford unless it had 0 effect on the existing buyouts. Going to the NFL is an option for him, UM, another program that's significantly better than stanford, etc.
Fourth, irregardless really bothered me too. It took me about 5 minutes to process that sentence. pet peeve for me as well.
I was "Password is Taco".
Acceptance speech:
I'd like to thank Incognito for running the league. I'd like to thank my parents, Lou Holtz, the girl next door, and everyone else who has helped me throughout my life.
Last year I tanked in the bowl pick'em, so you probably don't have to worry much about on that end.
Some of the bigger betters even "set up" some of the bookies. They'll place a "small" bet on one side to move the line one way and then drop 4x much on the other.
For example, line starts at 5.5 for mich/wisc
Person X puts 2500 on Wisconsin, and gets the line to 6.5, then goes back and drops 10k on michigan.
i have no idea if you're joking, but assuming you're not ctrl+f
I like you, and your thoughts. People always gloss over this, but lines move throughout the week based on single bets and betting trends. I believe Miami Ohio/Akron was on tuesday (akron and somebody), the line moved 4 points toward akron and they hadn't won a game. The spread was under 10 by game time and Akron covered.
Personally (feel free to disagree), I see Vegas as the best power ranking. The people willing to drop tons of cash on these games have algorithms and other methods to determine the value of XYZ team. They take all emotion out of it and look at the numbers. Reverse trend lines are generally a huge indication of this. Mich/Wisc is an example of this, majority of the public is putting money on Wisconsin (favorite, 9-1, etc), while the spread is moving toward michigan. Obviously, someone dropped serious cash on Michigan at 6, 5.5, 5, and 4.5.