I don't have the statistical insight, but I always thought running (and stopping the run) would be a better predictor of success, under the following logic:
Running is a low variance strategy in that it's easy to get a small number of yards, and hard to get a big number of yards. You can run for 2 or 3 yards every play, and it's rare to lose more than a couple, or gain more than 5-10 (unless you are Denard).
Passing is high variance. A completed pass frequently results in a lot of yards, and sometimes loses you a lot (like a sack or interception).
Therefore, if you can run for 4.5 or so yards every play, you are almost impossible to stop, because you never need to pass. If you can't run for a decent number of yards, you're forced to pass, which may bring success, but will eventually fail.
Great recuiting post, but in general it would be nice to differentiate between the two Michigans: The mitten-shaped landmass thingy and the university thereof.
I have lived near Philly my whole life. My seven year old self idolized the '93 Phillies - the first sports team I was ever crazy about. As an adult, I can't get over how ridiculous every single one of those players was, in retrospect.
Highlight for me: shades of Allen Iverson around a minute into the Mitch Williams video..."It's a business, man, it's a business, it's a business. We're in a business"
The attitude is vintage Philadelphia. I can't decide whether to hate it, or to laugh and love it.
I'll never be quite satisfied with the education I received there or the academic environment, but I am proud as hell of Joe Paterno. Just one hell of a person.
Against Minnesota (who are admittedly terrible), his stat line was 11/13 for 130 yds, 1 td, 0 int. I've watched every snap he's taken this year, and I'm going to submit that he's one of the strongest pieces of our offense. He is surrounded by linemen who do not block, receivers who do not catch, and total liabilities at tight end. He makes ~3 very freshman decisions per game, and all of this adds up to a 50% or so completion rate for the year.
Also, in the OP I didn't see any reference to Silas Redd (9 carries for 71 yards = 7.9 ypc agains Minnesota). Royster is getting tons of flak this year (maybe justifiably, but probably not, viz. the linemen above), but Redd is finding ways to get yards on the ground. I am willing to bet that UM sees 10 carries out of Redd on Saturday.
While there certainly is a nonzero chance of shutting down our [PSU's] running game, there is probably a larger chance our run game shutting itself down.
Imagine an O Line constructed entirely of Obies in the 'Defense vs Iowa 3' clip above: Snap the ball, then wait for someone to hit you. This is our offense, and our above average-ish skill players aren't going to change that.
And you are correct on the sections, they haven't changed them this year.
Pro tip: You can't see jack from that corner of the end zone (at least in our stadium) if you are down low. I would suggest getting at least 25 or so rows off the field if you ever hope to guess if Denard is reading the DE or DT.
This bit of wisdom is brought to you by me sitting in the 4th row last week and being unable to fathom why a non-Juice Illini freshman was ripping holes our secondary / my brain.
Statistically, maybe it wouldn't hurt. You'd have to compare the expected recovery rate of onside kicks to the chance of your defense getting a stop on a short field (as opposed to a longer field).
But, in a year where RR's job is on the line, etc., do you want him making strategic gambles this big, and being perceived as a 'rogue' coach (think Les Miles). If it works, it might be worth it, but otherwise it's asking for trouble.
Wonder how this would change if the tomato cans were removed, Mathlete style, as these seem to be the games with the lowest fear / highest desperation levels.
Also, is a large spread between the F and D metrics (i.e. |F-D|) good for M? If the team is expected to lose (high F, low D), maybe they play relaxed and pull out the upset. If they're heavily favored (low F because the chance of upset is low, high D because a loss ruins the season), they would also of course tend to win.
Finally if you took the product of F and D for each game, you'd get something you might call "importance." Does a team perform better / focus more for games that are important to it's fanbase?
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"a speech or piece of writing that praises someone or something highly."
It may be more complicated than that. I am guessing there is a reason they haven't arrested him yet.
A decently researched write-up here: http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2011/11/5/2540413/should-joe-paterno-have-done-more-to-protect-children
Conclusion is essentially that he acted within his legal obligations. Obviously you can make your own judgements about the moral side of it.
500K
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4215919
I don't have the statistical insight, but I always thought running (and stopping the run) would be a better predictor of success, under the following logic:
Running is a low variance strategy in that it's easy to get a small number of yards, and hard to get a big number of yards. You can run for 2 or 3 yards every play, and it's rare to lose more than a couple, or gain more than 5-10 (unless you are Denard).
Passing is high variance. A completed pass frequently results in a lot of yards, and sometimes loses you a lot (like a sack or interception).
Therefore, if you can run for 4.5 or so yards every play, you are almost impossible to stop, because you never need to pass. If you can't run for a decent number of yards, you're forced to pass, which may bring success, but will eventually fail.
You're really marshing my mellow...
Great recuiting post, but in general it would be nice to differentiate between the two Michigans: The mitten-shaped landmass thingy and the university thereof.
Just finished watching that...he is wacked out. Wow.
I have lived near Philly my whole life. My seven year old self idolized the '93 Phillies - the first sports team I was ever crazy about. As an adult, I can't get over how ridiculous every single one of those players was, in retrospect.
Highlight for me: shades of Allen Iverson around a minute into the Mitch Williams video..."It's a business, man, it's a business, it's a business. We're in a business"
The attitude is vintage Philadelphia. I can't decide whether to hate it, or to laugh and love it.
Nice to see another Frisian on here
Edit: dumb
buttering the coach's what?
and basically feel the same way.
I'll never be quite satisfied with the education I received there or the academic environment, but I am proud as hell of Joe Paterno. Just one hell of a person.
They gave him another test on Wednesday, which he passed.
It opened after I graduated but my friends say it's good:
http://www.kildaresirishpub.com/locations/
Against Minnesota (who are admittedly terrible), his stat line was 11/13 for 130 yds, 1 td, 0 int. I've watched every snap he's taken this year, and I'm going to submit that he's one of the strongest pieces of our offense. He is surrounded by linemen who do not block, receivers who do not catch, and total liabilities at tight end. He makes ~3 very freshman decisions per game, and all of this adds up to a 50% or so completion rate for the year.
Also, in the OP I didn't see any reference to Silas Redd (9 carries for 71 yards = 7.9 ypc agains Minnesota). Royster is getting tons of flak this year (maybe justifiably, but probably not, viz. the linemen above), but Redd is finding ways to get yards on the ground. I am willing to bet that UM sees 10 carries out of Redd on Saturday.
I'm just going to needlessly add to the fawning over this post, but wow. This is like CRex level of epic.
While there certainly is a nonzero chance of shutting down our [PSU's] running game, there is probably a larger chance our run game shutting itself down.
Imagine an O Line constructed entirely of Obies in the 'Defense vs Iowa 3' clip above: Snap the ball, then wait for someone to hit you. This is our offense, and our above average-ish skill players aren't going to change that.
And you are correct on the sections, they haven't changed them this year.
Pro tip: You can't see jack from that corner of the end zone (at least in our stadium) if you are down low. I would suggest getting at least 25 or so rows off the field if you ever hope to guess if Denard is reading the DE or DT.
This bit of wisdom is brought to you by me sitting in the 4th row last week and being unable to fathom why a non-Juice Illini freshman was ripping holes our secondary / my brain.
He is probably assuming M converts three 2 point conversions
Statistically, maybe it wouldn't hurt. You'd have to compare the expected recovery rate of onside kicks to the chance of your defense getting a stop on a short field (as opposed to a longer field).
But, in a year where RR's job is on the line, etc., do you want him making strategic gambles this big, and being perceived as a 'rogue' coach (think Les Miles). If it works, it might be worth it, but otherwise it's asking for trouble.
Wonder how this would change if the tomato cans were removed, Mathlete style, as these seem to be the games with the lowest fear / highest desperation levels.
Also, is a large spread between the F and D metrics (i.e. |F-D|) good for M? If the team is expected to lose (high F, low D), maybe they play relaxed and pull out the upset. If they're heavily favored (low F because the chance of upset is low, high D because a loss ruins the season), they would also of course tend to win.
Finally if you took the product of F and D for each game, you'd get something you might call "importance." Does a team perform better / focus more for games that are important to it's fanbase?
If you multiply the probabilities he posted, there is a 0.0513 % chance of finishing with 5 wins (and a 5.639% chance of finishing with 12 wins).