Rather be on BA
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|22 min 8 sec ago||Would it make the most sense||
Would it make the most sense to follow this thought process pretty strictly through the entire bracket, or deviate based on pure odds, especially in the later rounds?
For example. 46% of people on CBS have MSU getting to the final four, while 538 only gives them a 24% chance to be there. Meanwhile, only 9% of people are picking Nova to make it to the final four, while 538 gives them a 21% chance of being there. Thus, Nova would be the better pick from this train of thought
However, most would agree that MSU still has the better chance of making it out of the region. This is where ti would get tricky, trying to balance value and straight odds.
EDIT: By making a bracket solely based off of value as it is defined here, I have answered my own question.. The bracket looks ridiculous.
Basically, choosing the underdog almost always is more "valuable". Seems like the better way to use this info is to use "value" as a way to choose upsets, and a way to choose final four teams that less people are choosing, but statistically have a relatively good chance to make a run.
|1 hour 9 min ago||Or even better: Tenn/Iowa has||
Or even better: Tenn/Iowa has a combined 68% chance of defeating Saint Louis according to 538, but less than 20% are picking them to win. Thus this would be a good upset pick.
|1 hour 12 min ago||Does this statement make any||
Does this statement make any sense to people more mathematically inclined than me:
If an underdog has a greater % chance of winning than the % of people picking them to win the game, it is a good value to pick that upset.
For example, Silver gives Harvard a 42% chance to win the game, while according to CBS only 38% of people are choosing them to win. Thus it would be a good pick from a value standpoint.
Am I just making things up, or does this make sense?
EDIT: This is obviously not an end-all evaluation, but another factor to take into consideration when choosing picks/upsets.
|20 hours 48 min ago||Every region is going to be||
Every region is going to be tough once you reach the sweet 16. Duke and Louisville are tough, but substitute us into other brackets and the going isn't much easier.
|21 hours 25 min ago||Florida, Kansas, Syracuse,||
Florida, Kansas, Syracuse, OSU all in the South. Seems tough.
|21 hours 50 min ago||I'm interested to see if we||
I'm interested to see if we get a better draw as a 2 seed than we would have as a 1. This loss could end up being a blessing in disguise.
Maybe I am just trying to make myself feel better.
Leave me alone.
|4 days 18 hours ago||I still want Watkins if we||
I still want Watkins if we can reasonably trade up. I feel like you don't become a SB contender by building a solid all around team and trying to fill every single need. You build parts of your team to be juggernauts while some other parts may simply just have to hold up.
Examples of some very good teams over the last decade plus:
Seattle Defense vs Offense (although the Offense improved a lot)
Ravens Defense versus offense back in the day
Colts Offense versus defense
Broncos O vs D
NO Saints O vs D
Denver O vs D
Packers O vs D
I guess the Patriots are the exception.
All great teams have areas where they are not stellar but they also have areas where they are simply AWESOME. If the Lions draft Watkins I think it could put their offense over the top assuming Stafford has a bounce back year and the O Line can keep it up. The defense is good enough as is to make a deep play off run without top end secondary help. getting a game changer like Watkins is much more valuable to this team than a decent player like Ha-Ha or Dennard...
|1 week 16 hours ago||Game #1: #8 Indiana vs #9||
Game #1: #8 Indiana vs #9 Illinois
How beautiful would that be?
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Someone needs to photoshop||
Someone needs to photoshop Cartman licking Izo tears.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Tonights.||
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Just opened a homebrew dark||
Just opened a homebrew dark Rye PA. First bottle cracked. Not done bottle conditioning but tastes pretty good!
Just brewed a barleywine a couple months ago. Cheers!
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Lagunitas Sucks. Found a few||
Lagunitas Sucks. Found a few six packs left this afternoon!
|3 weeks 5 hours ago||I don't mind it. Heat of the||
I don't mind it. Heat of the moment; competition; yada yada. Complaining in interviews about injuries and whatnot is what bothers me, not emotional outbursts in game.
|3 weeks 1 day ago||The 40 time as a whole isn't||
The 40 time as a whole isn't very important, but the 10 yard split is very important. Lewan's was 1.70s which is very good. Broad jump should be another that is quite important for an OL. I would say vertical too.
Tbh though, the combine does a pretty crappy job with their testing. There are a lot of tests out there that would predict performance much better than many the NFL uses... a 225 lb bench press that players rep 20,30+ times is laughably unrelated to playing football. There is no true measure of upper body power or strength in their testing battery. The jumps do an okay job of lower body power, but there are still better methods out there.
|3 weeks 3 days ago||One guy, who most casual||
One guy, who most casual football fans still have no idea exists, does not invalidate my point.
Not to mention his most rewarding work has been largely outside of college athletics.
|3 weeks 3 days ago||I would bet a lot of money||
I would bet a lot of money that he falls somewhere in the middle. The job of a S&C coach is pretty crappy to be honest. You get minimal credit for the good you do, but if people get injured you get all of the negative attention in the world, whether it is actually your fault or not. One of the many reasons I decided not to pursue the career.
I would like to see the numbers too though..
|4 weeks 21 hours ago||But I thought the previous||
But I thought the previous thread was a jinx fersure!!!!11!
We got bailed out big time. Cheers to that.
|4 weeks 21 hours ago||Nebraska just bailed us out||
Nebraska just bailed us out so hard.
|4 weeks 21 hours ago||Miles is my favorite||
Miles is my favorite non-Beilein B1G coach.
|4 weeks 22 hours ago||Superstitious people annoy||
Superstitious people annoy me...
Chill the hell out. If MSU comes back and wins this game it certainly won't be due to this thread.
Thanks for the heads up OP, some of us were not aware the game was on right now. I will turn it on.
|4 weeks 5 days ago||What is this, 2012?||
What is this, 2012?
|4 weeks 5 days ago||Seen this gif so many times.||
Seen this gif so many times. Still my favorite.
|6 weeks 1 day ago||Dirty or smart? Nah: weird.||
Dirty or smart? Nah: weird.
|6 weeks 1 day ago||
|6 weeks 1 day ago||It begs the question though,||
It begs the question though, is The Big Lebowski the greatest film of all time?
|6 weeks 1 day ago||You tell them Section 1...||
You tell them Section 1...
|6 weeks 2 days ago||No, that is not rape... You||
No, that is not rape...
You are responsible for your actions when drunk. You get drunk and drive a car, you get a DUI; you get drunk and have sex with someone you otherwise wouldn't have, you have regrets, not a means for rape charges.
DISCLAIMER: Regular sex that is consentual in the moment between two drunk people is very different from sex that occurs when a female is so drunk she can't even forumlate the words "no"... That IS rape.
|6 weeks 2 days ago||I agree with your second||
I agree with your second point completely
Taking advantage of, or targeting, a severely intoxicated female is very different from two drunk people having sex, which while consentual at the time, is maybe a bit regretable (for EITHER PARTY) upon waking the next morning. I (a male) have had sex with someone while under the influence of alcohol that I more than likely would not have if I was sober, but I would never claim I was taken advantage of; being drunk doesn't mean you are no longer responsible for your actions. According to that same point, a drunk guy having sex with a girl who is so intoxicated she cannot even think or walk is responsible for that choice, and I DO think that constitutes rape. I understand the issues with trying to draw the line between simply being drunk but cognizant, and black-out drunk- it is not simple, but things aren't always simple...
This is obviously not what happened in Gibbons' case, and his actions are sickening. I do not mean to defend rape or rape culture, I have family and friends who are victims and take it very seriously, but to label all sex that occurs under the influence of alcohol "rape" is beyond ridiculous to me, and actually pretty insulting to real cases.
|7 weeks 2 hours ago||Expectations =/= wants. I||
Expectations =/= wants. I think a lot of people have a hard time separating the two.
I EXPECT one National Title in 20 yrs although these are less important than B1G titles, which I would expect one every 2-3 years, a 50-50 ish split with OSU, winning about 75% of the time versus MSU, one loss to Minn per decade is bearable (only just), and no one other than U of M and Ohio should have a top recruiting class in the BIG, so 50% on that one too.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||Is Izzo seriously complaining||
Is Izzo seriously complaining about calls? Unbelievable.