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14 years 6 months
Points
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Recent Comments

Date Title Body
Hey! It is me, Bill…

Hey! It is me, Bill Radjewski. Good job approximating all of that! As for the (rather small) discrepancy, it looks like we have some very small variation in our coefficients. Here are the final (unrounded) values that I ended up with:

a = -0.0010426837701789093
b = -0.008851684313982533
c = 2.8456442866415186

Which this reminds me, I really just need to put all the data up on my site. Anyway, nice work!

Can't really disagree with…

Can't really disagree with any of that. If we can get that 'competent to good' offense, then I could definitely see us hanging with MSU/OSU. It's hard to make judgments since the sample size for the season is so small. I just keep going back to PSU in 2016 where they struggled with Pitt and then got blown out by us, but then rebounded and ended up as B1G Champs. Wishful thinking? Sure, but there's no reason we can't have a similar turn around.

And I agree about the offense last year. I think what was so frustrating was not that the offense was "bad" but that there was so much potential on that side of the ball and it felt very underutilized. And maybe we don't need to set the bar this year at a playoff berth. I'm sure most here would be satisfied with merely beating OSU.

That's actually pretty…

That's actually pretty interesting. At first, I was dismissive of the notion that the offense doesn't need to be lights out, but after playing around with the SP+ data some, you see several examples of teams being fully mediocre on one side of the ball and being in the playoff discussion.

Looking at SP+ offense and defensive rankings from the 2017 season, each of the four playoff teams were solid at best on at least one side of the ball.

Source: https://collegefootballdata.com/sp

Clemson's offense was nothing special while Oklahoma's defense was thoroughly mediocre. The thing that concerns me is that each of those teams was still elite on one side of the ball. You can point to ND last year as a team that wasn't really special on either side of the ball, but ND is sort of a special case. At any rate, it's hard to see our D being elite enough this year to carry the O to the CFP.

One other thing, as mediocre as Clemson's offense was that year, it's still always been a tier above our own in the Harbaugh era.

Source: https://collegefootballdata.com/sp/trends

So, it may be too early in the season to write us off with regards to any of our goals, but it definitely looks like we're going to need to offense to not only bounce back but actually take a small leap from previous years to actually contend. Is it possible? Maybe? Joe Moorhead's offense certainly bounced back his first year at Penn State in 2016 after starting off sluggish. Hopefully Gattis can replicate that.

I'm still at 288 points and…

I'm still at 288 points and still being told I need 100 points to create new posts.  Would also love to be able to revert my username back to what it was before the site migration changed it on me.

I'm having the exact same…

I'm having the exact same issue.

You can also do this via…

You can also do this via Google Home and Google Home Minis.  You can even pair any Bluetooth speakers you may have to the network of Google Homes and configure everything in groups (e.g. "downstairs", "all", etc).  It's a great time to be alive.

That's interesting because…

That's interesting because my experience has been completely different using WatchESPN for the past 4 or 5 seasons.  Never had any issues and the quality has always been great.

You don't need live ABC on…

You don't need live ABC on PS VUE to watch games that are on ABC.  Just login to the Watch ESPN app with your Vue credentials.  Problem solved.  Source: Don't have live ABC on Vue and have been using this method for the past few seasons.  There has yet to be a Michigan game I haven't been able to watch.

Same exact issue here.  It…

Same exact issue here.  It also will no longer let me create posts.  Additionally, it reverted me back to my old username (used to be BlueSCar, now I'm Rad again).

Based on our estimates (game…

Based on our estimates (game creators won't release actual values), a 3 star is worth about 7.5 points vs 12 points for a 4 star, so definitely worth it if you are able.  If not, no big deal.  The most important jump is from 2 star to 3 star.

 

Today's maps:



 

Today's maps:

context0609.png

 

map0609.png

Today's maps:

 



 

Today's maps:

 

ldxOgiU - Imgur.png

 

KDGBxcR - Imgur.png

We definitely experienced a…

We definitely experienced a downtick on participation yesterday.

Great work on the redesign! …

Great work on the redesign!  I changed my username a few weeks ago and not it's back to the old one.  How do I get my new one back?

It's about even right now. Chaos was really

It's about even right now. Chaos was really messing with Florida last week, which affected our alliance disproportionately, hence some of the overall setbacks the alliance experienced. Now that that's behind them, things have started to turn around to a degree.

Eh. We've really only had two

Eh. We've really only had two bad days in the last week.  The last couple have been neutral-to-positive.  You have to keep in mind that when we were gaining all that territory, we were basically just overpowering a weaker OSU team.  Now, we have to contend with a triple threat of OSU, Nebraska (who trades off with Florida each night for strongest team in the game), and Wisconsin).  Being able to hold ground while protecting our weaker allies and converging with our strongest ally (Florida), is a pretty big deal.  The last week hasn't been so much about gaining territory as it has been solidifying positioning on the map.

That's all been coordinated

That's all been coordinated with Nebraska to get them to the frontlines. The two of them have a deal worked out about how they each want this game to end.

Take it up with the mods. LSA gave us his blessing

Take it up with the mods. LSA gave us his blessing in a previous thread and these continue to be some of the most popular posts in OT season. Until that blessing is rescinded and while the majority of users are in favor, we'll keep posting them. In the meantime, you are free to save yourself a mouse-click, as much effort as that may entail.

You don't

You get them from contests on r/CFB, usually during the season, and they are basically impossible to get.

MVPs don't count as awards. 

MVPs don't count as awards.  Those are contests on r/CFB that are nearly impossible to win.

They originally consisted of

They originally consisted of users of FCS and other non-FBS teams and started with Alaska as their home base and any other FBS teams that get eliminated have the option to fight for the team that controls their home territory or become a part of Team Chaos.

We already tried to flip Wisky and were rebuffed.

We already tried to flip Wisky and were rebuffed. Turns out their leader is getting bribes from other members of the Red Alliance, specifically free football tickets.

We are literally 5 times

We are literally 5 times Clemson's size going by weighted star power.  It would be lunacy for them to turn around on us and, if they did, we could end them in a few turns.  That said, they have been perhaps our most reliable ally up until this point.  I would not be too concerned about them turning on us at this point in time.

*wink*

*wink*

Oh look, we've got an

Oh look, we've got an internet tough guy here. So scared.

To expand on that, the game

To expand on that, the game creators made a rule change around day 12 that greatly strengthened the value of 3/4/5 stars relative to 1/2 stars, so the sum total of raw star power doesn't tell us much anymore.  The creators have also refused to release what the new weightings are, but us and other teams have run analysis to get a good estimation.

Whichever order you got was

Whichever order you got was correct.  We are highly coordinating things with our allies this turn.

Assignment site enhancement

Just wanted to let you all know that we've implemented an enhancement to the website based on peoples' feedback that it was hard to figure out what action to take without always knowing what all of the logos looked like.  Starting now, you should be able to go to the site and it will now render the relevant logo.  Hopefully this makes things easier for people.

 

Tell me your preferred

Tell me your preferred verbiage and I'll make it happen (as long as it won't confuse other people that get that assignment).

We gave it back to them after

We gave it back to them after accidentally taking it in the first place.

It's a median of all your

It's a median of all your star rankings.  So, you'll need to get one of your other ratings up to two stars.  r/CFB karma would be the easiest as I think you only need to get to 50.  Or you could just play the game for 10 days to get it on turns played.

Metrics

We have metrics on that.  In fact, we have metrics on just about everything.  Chaos' participation rate is very low.  Actually, they are about equal strength with us when going by historical player participation from turn to turn.  It seems like players lose interest quickly once their team is out of it.

Make sure you're using this

Make sure you're using this url: old.reddit.com/r/cfb

My first MGoPost and I

My first MGoPost and I totally butchered it.  I feel great shame for this transgression.

Would definitely love to have

Would definitely love to have you coordinate with us, but that said, you do you.  Just please refrain from attacking any allies.

That's just a great

That's just a great philosophy for life in general.

Maps

Map of our area:

 

Full map (minus Hawai'i and Alaska):

Sorry about that. Made a breaking change that had

Sorry about that. Made a breaking change that had it down for a minute. Should be good now.

CFBRisk mods just announced a

CFBRisk mods just announced a rule change locking in the first team you played for.  So going forward, if your team is eliminated you can't switch flairs now.  Your only options are your occupier or Chaos.

Yeah, that non-agression is

Yeah, that non-agression is still in effect with regards to Clemson. Their actions last night lived up to their word.

Tennessee fans have been

Tennessee fans have been switching their flairs on r/CFB to GT in order to attack Florida and sow discord within the alliance.

I recommend PMing u/bakonydraco directly on

I recommend PMing u/bakonydraco directly on reddit. People were having success with doing that before.

Why thank you!

Why thank you!

Yeah, we had OSU people try

Yeah, we had OSU people try to use the site to determine what our strategy is for a given day.  They're obsessed with it for whatever reason, so we just like to verify that you've played a turn for Michigan and not any other teams before you get an assignment from the website.

The two main alliances are

The two main alliances are the "Blue" Alliance of which we are a part along with Florida, Georgia Tech, and now Texas.  The Red Alliance is our current adversary and includes Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Stanford, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Alabama.

There's also a little bit of a bromance going on right now between some smaller schools in VT, Auburn, and South Carolina as they are all banding together to flee to the Pacific coast to escape the carnage.

Yeah, that's pretty smart. 

Yeah, that's pretty smart.  I've been sucked in since day one.  My productivity has taken a huuuge hit and I'm in the doghouse with the wife over tthis game.  So, good thinking!

There's a bot in the discord

There's a bot in the discord channel that does all sorts of things like this, including a few easter eggs.  I'm hesitant to publicly post Michigan data on here because I am wary of giving up our competitive advantage.  While I'm sure most teams have something similar with varying degrees of sophistication, we don't want to make things easy for them.  Hey, all the more reason to join the Discord (even if only to lurk)!

I looked this up just because

I looked this up just because your comment had me curious.  By our estimates, Auburn got incredibly lucky.  They had bad odds of winning either territory (ND and Toledo) and only 8% odds of winning both.

 

It does

The assignments from the web app are weighted based on how important each territory is.  The idea is that we want as best of a shot as possible to contend for as many territories as possible.  So ideally, we should have people on most territories but just not in the same proportions.

It's a median of your five rankings

If you look at the box with all of your sub-rankings, it just takes the median.  So, if you have links up to 5 stars, you need to then raise two other categories.  For example, I'm a 3 star because that is by median ranking below based off of turns played.