Member for

7 years 11 months
Points
795.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
If that’s OSU’s QB room next…

If that’s OSU’s QB room next year, they are fucked

Great article.

I don't…

Great article.

I don't share the concerns with 2024 regarding the O-line specifically. This year they will have Jeff Persi, Geo El-Hadi, Raheem Anderson, and two of Myles Hinton, Karsen Barnhart, and Trente Jones on the bench. Each of those guys would start at any other program in the Big Ten (including OSU), and most of the country, and all except maybe Barnhart/Jones are expected back for 2024. Throw in Reece Attebery and Andrew Gentry, and that's six to eight elite and experienced upper class O-lineman on the roster next fall. 

Assuming either Sherrone Moore is still coaching as OL/OC or HC in 2024, or Grant Newsome takes over OL at that point, it's hard to see much of a dropoff there. About as un-Hoke as you can get in terms of stability, development, and talent available.

Gonna screenshot the list of…

Gonna screenshot the list of the first four listed defensive commits and send it back in time to 2018 me. With three and a half solid interior DL prospects, three of them over 280 lbs already, and another big DT probably silently committed as well?? Hard to miss Don Brown too much right now. 

Great summary of the two…

Great summary of the two different years. Love the framing of "getting creative."

Based on the struggles we had in 2019 and 2020 due to some of the aforementioned recruiting misses, I'd rank yearly recruiting needs as such:

  1. Corner w/ track speed that truly at least 5'10" (Jyaire Hill, check)
  2. Two DTs that can plausibly play at 290+ lbs (Rod Pierce, half check. Hopefully Jamel Howard comes as well)
  3. High floor QB to pair in the shadow of a 5-star. (Bell is a huge project and likely a jumbo WR down the road, and does not check this box)
  4. Pass rusher with legit bend/speed. Can be a project that doesn't land til year 3. (Enow Etta has a high floor and ceiling; Hewlett/Ishmail provide good upside)
  5. OT prospect - legit 6'4", great bend/feet. Don't care about recruiting rankings here, but should be someone that the staff targeted early and aggressively. (Link, check)
  6. At least one 4* WR prospect - you can take depth/upside pieces, but need one guy with track speed/hands/route running that is obvious (English, check)
  7. RB prospect that the staff targeted early and aggressively (Cabana, check)
  8. Safety with intelligence and solid speed. Impossible to scout/know until a few years down the road. (Unlikely anyone in this class fits, but the previous class with 3 highly touted safeties still has time)
  9. A LB with legit sideline to sideline speed (Hayden Moore) and one that can thump in the Big Ten (Semaj Bridgeman). Check.
  10. Bodies at OL, DL (check)

QB is a big worry, especially with Davis not yet committing in 2024. QB recruiting beginning to feel like Beilein PG recruiting - players want to play immediately and not learn a complex system with lots of rules/constraints, even though the development makes you a much better pro prospect after some time in the system. No patience from these youths! 

Other than that though, feels like they checked all the boxes on at least avoiding huge roster holes down the line with 2023. 

20 years from now, we will…

20 years from now, we will still be rapturously talking about this Michigan IOL. The entire offensive strategy and 8 weeks of UFR charting back this up. 
 

SHIELD OLU AND STAR ZINTER AND KEEGAN. It’s past time. Why is this even a discussion at this point? 

What you’re saying is that…

What you’re saying is that you’re not ready to buy an EV. But the range, charge times, price point w/ tax credits, and general environmental benefits are appealing to a lot of people, and the market share of EVs is skyrocketing today, not a decade from now. 
 

I’ll grant that driving from Duluth across the UP probably isn’t the most electrified route today, but the state and the feds are prioritizing rural spots like Route 2 for electrification over the next several years. If Norway can accommodate 65% of new vehicles being EVs, then we can figure it out as well. 

Shutting down Diablo Canyon…

Shutting down Diablo Canyon is one of the dumber decisions made this century. 

Hi. Where is any of this…

Hi. Where is any of this coming from?

Most EVs today have 200+ miles of range, which covers >95% of passenger trips. The new Ford Lightning extended claims up to 300 miles of range.

There will be situations where charging an EV is difficult (cross-country roadtrips, rural areas like the UP), but by and large they are already viable for most of what you'd use an ICE vehicle for today, and charging infrastructure is rapidly being built out around the country even before the federal money shows up in Q3 this year.

 

What a moment, extra time…

What a moment, extra time let’s go

Fewer*

*Fewer

The real MVP of that 2001…

The real MVP of that 2001 OSU team was the kicker, Mike Nugent. Absolutely clutch in late/close game situations, of which there were many that year. Ended up as a 2x AA, 2nd(!) round draft pick. 

We have Moody, who has the potential to be that guy if necessary (already was against Nebraska).

That staff also had Mark Dantonio, Luke Fickell, and Mel Tucker, not bad. 

Colorado and New Mexico are…

Colorado and New Mexico are at each others’ throats about who has the better chili pepper-themed license plate, so not totally unprecedented. 

Totally agree that it's in E…

Totally agree that it's in E. All and C. Johnson's best interest to come back - they have more development ahead of them.

That said, there are still program guys out there. If Ronnie Bell came back, that would certainly count - he doesn't have much more to prove at this level. And Aiden could have gone in the first round this past draft but chose to come back anyway - definitely a selfless decision. Jake Butt, Jake Long, there are other examples - it still happens.

I think Josh has the option…

I think Josh has the option to apply for a medshirt (or redshirt?) since he only played 4 games in 2019 due to injury - thus opening up the potential 6th year

COVID-19 caused some weird…

COVID-19 caused some weird scholarship situations – if the Depth Chart By Class is to be believed, only two players are actually out of eligibility after this year.

 

Out of eligibility

Andrew Vastardis

Brad Hawkins

Notes: Probably underappreciated as a major factor in the team’s early success. Experience at safety and center is huge in CFB. These will be big holes to fill.

 

Leaving no matter what

Aiden Hutchinson

Dax Hill

Hassan Haskins

Notes: Aiden will be a top ten pick and Dax will be in the 1st/2nd round range where staying in college isn’t a discussion. Hassan has already been a four-year contributor at UM and NFL running backs have such short shelf lives, he’s gone.

 

2022 5th/6th year players (ordered by expected NFL interest - grades are completely made up by me)

Ryan Hayes (3rd round)

Andrew Steuber (4th)

Gemon Green (5th)

Ronnie Bell (5th)

Josh Ross (6th)

Mike Barrett (6th)

Chuck Filiaga (7th)

Taylor Upshaw (7th)

Jake Moody (7th)

Brad Robbins (UDFA)

Vincent Gray (UDFA)

Daylen Baldwin (UDFA)

Julius Welshof (UDFA)

Luke Schoonmaker (UDFA)

Donovan Jeter (UDFA)

Joel Honigford (UDFA)

Alan Bowman (UDFA)

Notes: Bell and Ross kind of feel like Eli Brooks in that they don’t have a ton of pro potential, but would have massive impacts on the team with another year in college, both because of their talent level and their ability to be “glue guys.”

 

2022 4th year players (again, ordered by expected NFL interest)

Erick All (4th round in 2022 NFL draft; 2nd round in 2023 NFL Draft)

Cornelius Johnson (5th; 3rd)

Mazi Smith (6th; 4th)

Chris Hinton (6th; 4th)

Mike Morris (7th; 5th)

David Ojabo (6th; 3rd)

Mike Sainristil (UDFA)

Notes: Feels like all of these players still have more to prove at the college level. Have to think a few of the names above will test the NFL waters, but guessing that’d be more for feedback than because they were seriously contemplating leaving.

 

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Of those that may seriously consider leaving for the NFL, the biggest impact decisions seem to be Ryan Hayes, Ronnie Bell, Gemon Green, Andrew Steuber, and Josh Ross. And while Erick All and Cornelius Johnson would definitely be drafted, they both seem like four year program guys that’ll stick around (fingers crossed).

With the scholarship count being very different than most years, we’ll also have to see if some of the more fringe players end up back for 5th/6th years, or if the coaches end up going younger. Seems like Harbaugh emphasizes guys staying in the program over taking transfers, but that may be a case-by-case basis.

His other finalists are…

His other finalists are Oregon and Pitt. Strong track records there.

Remember Paris Ford?

https://247sports.com/player/paris-ford-77009/

Would be a huge get

No, I'm suggesting that…

No, I'm suggesting that having a QB that can make a third or fourth read is a luxury in college football that few teams have. Rudock was able to do it in the latter half of his 5th year in college. Speight was able to (inconsistently) do it in 2016, his fourth 4th year in school. Both came in with scouting profiles that emphasized their football IQ.

I believe Ian Boyd's article on Monday emphasized this exact issue. Finding a highly intelligent QB who also has the raw throwing talent, and putting together a cohesive pass pro unit around him, is very difficult in this day and age. Most college teams emphasize quick passing attacks and pre-snap reads, and taking away the first read from a QB is often sufficient to stifle passing attacks. QBs that can make additional reads are a valuable rarity in today's game.

I hope Cade and JJ can get to the point where they're coming off receivers and making third/fourth reads. Cade right now seems comfortable with one read and then a checkdown. As a third year player with only six starts, it seems reasonable that he may still develop this skill.

The image below is a still of the throw where Rudock releases it as Chesson breaks. It a few moments, two Indiana DBs will careen into each other and Jehu will have a walk-in TD. This is the aspiration, but it's not easy to get there. This game was a statistical outlier, as were Andrew Luck's entire 2009 and 2010 seasons.

Having a QB that can do this is awesome, but it doesn't happen very often. That's my point.

Correct, Cade does not…

Correct, Cade does not qualify since has hasn't had enough plays.

For comparison, Stroud missed a whole game, Sitkowski has come in relief of Peters, and Plummer was also out with injury for a bit, yet they all are on the list. 

I appreciate Seth and Alex…

I appreciate Seth and Alex deciding not to give Mertz a cyan circle, which would therefore doom us to Mecha-Mertz throwing for 600 yards and 9 TDs. If anything, I think this performance deserves a shield:

Ack, and I forgot to finish…

Ack, and I forgot to finish my title. Should be "through Week 3."

Seth - drop the mike. Hell…

Seth - drop the mike. Hell of an article, hell of a series, hell of a summer for you sir. 

Kick ass cover art Kick ass cover art
I don't think any of Jackson…

I don't think any of Jackson Jr, Oladipo, or Burrows ever had any real inclination to play for Michigan. 

Realistic options that would objectively had better careers at UM:

  • Jaylen Brown - went to Cal, was Pac-12 freshman of the year on a team that got third in the conference and flamed out in the first round of the tournament. Could have been playing next to Moe, LaVert, DJ, etc. 
  • Tyus Battle - went to Syracuse, stayed three years, went to the tournament once, never learned to shoot under Boeheim, and went undrafted. Ugh.
Draftaggedon getting 2020’d…

Draftaggedon getting 2020’d may be the lone bright spot of this year

Okay, but in his one year at…

Okay, but in his one year at Cal, they made the tournament...and lost to Hawaii in the first round. 

This feels like when Jaylen…

This feels like when Jaylen Brown went to Cal. Like, cool academics are important, but uh, so are sports presumably to a five star future NBA player? And, uh, there’s this giant flashing maize and blue sign over here that says you actually can have both. 

The weight will be there 

The weight will be there:

Kris coming in at 260

RS Freshman Gabe Newberg up to 270

RS Soph Julius Welscof up to 290

While FERC lacked the teeth…

While FERC lacked the teeth to enforce them in 2003, there were NERC policies requiring the types of studies that First Energy failed to perform.

From the Final Report on the 2003 Blackout, Chapter 3: Causes of the Blackout and Violations of NERC Standards (link):

Power systems engineer (go…

Power systems engineer (go figure)

First Energy was also…

First Energy was also largely responsible for the 2003 Blackout. They ignored NERC standards and hadn’t studied the system sufficiently to realize that an N-1 situation (Loss of a single transmission line) would lead to subsequent overloads, trips, and eventually voltage collapse.

Yet another example of why Ohio is the worst. 
 

 

(No subject)

Nooooooooooo

You could argue that Shea…

You could argue that Shea had a similarly loaded offense around him. 1st round WR (Nico) plus a second with NFL talent (DPJ), and four drafted lineman with >100 starts combined. The RBs and TEs were not as elite, but Shea looking pedestrian behind that type of talent is pretty damning. 

The east side of Chicago is…

The east side of Chicago is...Lake Michigan

To be fair, the waves do get pretty rough

Best P/CP this year!!

Best P/CP this year!!

Agreed that FPI isn't the…

Agreed that FPI isn't the best metric; SP+ would probably be considered more accurate. 

But from a big picture perspective, going from ~50% chance to win the division preseason, to <1% change now says a lot about the current trajectory of the team. That is a startling comedown, especially since M currently only has 1 loss. The advanced stats are saying that Michigan isn't anywhere close to competing for a conference title.

I think our only hope is that Harbaugh is attempting the MSU-style bullshit wins in Sept/Oct approach, with a suddenly superior team emerging in November. To be fair, this approach has been pretty effective in the past (just never for us).

Really? I see a guy playing…

Really? I see a guy playing at half speed compared to the rest of the D, getting stalemated in all 4 plays by a cyan circle Rutgers O-lineman. 

Not saying he can’t get mentally faster and physically stronger over the season, but he’s clearly not processing things as fast and does not have the strength of even a Ben Mason yet. 

 

 

ASU right now

 

ASU right now

 

Is t Braiden McGregor the…

Is t Braiden McGregor the heir apparent at SDE behind Hutchinson?

Woohoo, first post since…

Woohoo, first post since Joey Velazquez’s went up on May 9. One minute you’re lazily reading player profiles, getting ready to settle in to another slow, relaxing offseason, and then the John Beilein bullet train hits you square in the face going 200mph to…Ohio? And of course the caboose of Desperate Coaching Search with Copious Amount of (Definitely Not Manufactured) Drama and Much Internet Hand Wringing follows and drags you along the tracks for a week. Did not see all that coming.

Anyway, Solomon at #81 overall to ESPN is pretty intriguing.

Agreed. Normally I would…

Agreed. Normally I would assume one of these two is a loss. For Wisconsin, Jonathan Taylor may give our run D even more trouble than normal, but at the end of the day neither (random upperclassmen placeholder QB) or Graham Mertz will be ready for a Don Brown defense in Week 4. Michigan should be able to generate some chaos on that side of the ball.

At PSU feels like an inflection point for both Harbaugh and Franklin. Harbaugh is clearly the superior coach, but can he actually win a tough game on the road against similar(ish) talent?

I don't think its crazy to think we should win both of these.

What a fucking fuck

What a fucking fuck

Ed Feng was particularly…

Ed Feng was particularly moronic in this episode. 

He kept insisting that the computers say UM has a 2% chance at the CFP, so UM must have a shot still. When in fact, there is literally no scenario in which UM is in. 

What separates Ed from other numbers guys at say, Fangraphs or 538, is that they are able to put numbers in context, understanding that the math is only part of the story. Ed just points at a spreadsheet and says “math.” He doesn’t understand football; he doesn’t even seem to understand the point he’s trying to make half the time.

Sorry to mislead, I meant…

Sorry to mislead, I meant football. Personally I think he looks like a great Viper candidate.

Although he does resemble Tommy Tremble from last cycle a bit: an H-back type with plus hands and a frame that could fill out into a powerful blocker someday. 

Agreed, but it just doesn’t…

Agreed, but it just doesn’t seem realistic to expect Mone to hold up for four quarters if Wisconsin puts some long, grinding drives together.  

If Michigan has a big lead it’s nbd. But in a tight game, Wisconsin could drive on our exhausted DTs late. Seems like the coaches would have a contingency plan, and making J. Hudson available should be an option.  

Best written FFFF of the…

Best written FFFF of the year? Thank you for revealing the many pseudonyms of Alex Hornibrook. 

Not sure that I totally got…

Not sure that I totally got Craig’s analogy, but if we were to extend it to the rest of the Big Ten, Rutgers is definitely Frida Kahlo’s monobrow

Yeah, this article is just…

Yeah, this article is just complete crap. 

All the other insider reports have Peters as #2, Chuck Filiaga has been practicing exclusively at guard (not tackle as claimed in the article), and Ronnie Bell is not going to be the primary backup to DPJ and Tarik.

Brandon Justice is a weird guy who wants to think he's an insider, but doesn't know jack. Whatever "sources" he's referring to are probably imaginary.

Purdue bringing both QB’s -…

Purdue bringing both QB’s - Sindelar and Blough. Interesting. 

This. DJ will get the chance…

This. DJ will get the chance to be the unquestioned starting PG on the depth chart, versus having to scrape and claw against three other more established UM PGs.

Hard to argue with that choice, except for all the losing that’ll come with it. No way OSU is anything but a rebuilding team for the next 2-3 years.