panthera leo fututio
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|5 hours 14 min ago||I'm less sarcastically appreciative||
From my own perspective as fan, I'm less concerned about the extent of some minor (if predictably hyperventilating) media reaction than I am about getting a better feel for the character of people that I root for. As such, I appreciate this thoughtful assessment of where the relevant parties are coming from. And if this piece means that the story stays in some fraction of the public's eye for marginally longer, I guess it's a price that I don't really care about.
|5 days 6 hours ago||Yeah, you're definitely right||
Yeah, you're definitely right about binary vs continuous scales of goodness. As I mentioned above, I think we're ultimately reasoning about what level of quality a tie at the top is most likely to occur at. I'd say that this is somewhere above Meh and below Throw God. The bit on binary ratios is more in response to Brian's original reasoning -- I just wanted to assert the point that prior probability ratios between tied and non-tied scenarios aren't really germane here. We know that we have a ~tied scenario, so we should be distinguishing among scenarios in which that condition holds.
And yes, I'm just glad that Rashan Gary is around to make sure that I don't get wedgied and stuffed in a locker by SEC message boarders.
|5 days 7 hours ago||Relevant probability ratio for QB||
In using a Fall camp dead heat to update QB quality priors, the relevant ratio isn't p(2 good)/p(1 good), but p(2 good)/p(O good) -- we know that the QBs are about the same right now, so we should be reasoning among scenarios in which that condition holds.
This distinction is both relevant and reassuring, I think. While it might be unlikely that we have two all Big Ten throw gods ready to go, I think it's even less likely that an extended Harbaugh residence has produced 0 plausible starters.
Reasoning in a more continuous way, we'd want to think about what level of quality is most likely to produce a tie between the top two. I think that level is Pretty Good Quality.
|1 week 1 day ago||"The human body traditionally||
"The human body traditionally isn't built for swimming."
This is exactly the reason why I'd define world-class sprinters as better "athletes" than world-class swimmers -- sprinting is fundamental to human movement in a way that swimming isn't. Obviously, Bolt couldn't just jump into whatever sport and excel, but the physical tools he possesses would be *enormously* useful on the football field, basketball court, baseball diamond, etc. That's not nearly as true for Phelps.
In terms of accomplishments, though, they're both once-in-a-lifetime competitors, and I doubt any of us ever see their equals in their respective sports.
|2 weeks 4 days ago||NBA defense||
Right, defense in the NBA is the worst...except for every other basketball association in the history of the sport.
I mean, you can always point to some guys getting lazy on the weak side on a non-playoff squad in March, but the defense played in the modern NBA is way better than what you see in college, way better than in previous eras of the NBA (go back and watch old Golden Era '80s games if you don't believe this), and way better than any other modern pro league.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||I don't think we're disagreeing, except to the||
I don't think we're disagreeing, except to the extent that I'd emphasize that maybe we should let people decide for themselves what tiny risks they are and are not willing to accept.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||But more to the point, would you "let" your wife||
But more to the point, would you "let" your wife ride in cars? If so, where do you see the difference?
|3 weeks 5 days ago||I think we have different sorts of||
I think we have different sorts of relationships.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||Depending on one's specific attachment to the||
Depending on one's specific attachment to the Games, I'm not sure that skipping them would be a smaller sacrifice than eliminating all non-essential vehicle travel. And as far as I know, doctors don't generally recommend that pregnant women do the latter.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||Vain phone-based edit||
|3 weeks 5 days ago||Fair point||
And a more constructive approach to the problem of ubiquitous, small risks is probably to try to minimize them wherever one can, rather than to shrug one's shoulders and say "I could have just as easily been hit by a car." Still, given the risks that you list, I think it's important to hold out the possibility that a pregnant women *could* reasonably and ethically decide to be in Rio.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||Relative risk assessment||
Thanks for a very informative post!
A small quibble with this, though: "essentially, any non-zero risk for a developing fetus is too high."
This doesn't seem to square with the countless other small but non-zero risks that pregnant women (and all of us) take during routine activity. Obvious example: the risks of virus contraction that you list aren't that much greater than the risks of catastrophic injury from car crashes.
Less abstractly: if some form of Olympic participation is hugely important to women who are or could become pregnant, the threshold for risk has to be something greater than 0 (though of course there are non-thriving arguments over exactly what non-zero risk is ethically acceptable).
|5 weeks 1 day ago||Utility function||
You'd probably want some sort of negative exponential function for player utility, since differences in position at the bottom of the list mean less (guys are just guys).
Ultimately, of course, you'd want to tweak the parameters of such a function so that Michigan has the best roster.
|5 weeks 4 days ago||Entrance rights|
|6 weeks 27 min ago||Is this a parody account?||
Penn State fan: "Whatever you do, don't acknowledge institutional failures in addressing sexual assault."
|7 weeks 9 hours ago||Depends on what you mean by||
Depends on what you mean by "supplemental". If you're talking about isolation work for triceps and delts, nobody in the history of humanity has ever gotten strong doing this. You get strong at pushing things by pushing heavy weight. You might see some strong dudes doing isolation stuff, but they're either shoring up weak points or trying to get sexier. They got strong in the first place by pushing heavy weight.
|17 weeks 6 days ago||Hey, man||
Them days we weren't able, there was always Cain.
|19 weeks 1 day ago||I was going to say same thing||
You can get to the 7th/Metro train station easily from your spot. From there, you can take the Red Line to Sunset/Vermont, which is proximate to what I'd imagine are some friendly running environs (including Griffith Park, if you're going on a long-ish run). Alternatively, you could take the Expo Line all the way out to Culver City, which is also proximate to some running-friendly spots (including a masochistically large hill).
|19 weeks 5 days ago||"Naturally, people assume the worst."||
You would need to make some pretty fucking heroic assumptions in Davis's favor to think that he shouldn't lose his job. We'll never know exactly what was said between coach and player, but every shred of a big pile of circumstantial evidence points to him circling wagons around team members accused of rape, in a way that undermines both accountability/justice in this specific instance, as well as undermining the broader goal of, you know, having Tennessee athletes rape people less.
|19 weeks 5 days ago||It would be interesting to||
It would be interesting to see how the dynamic would play out. I honestly don't have much of a feel for how deeply boosters at various programs would be willing to dig into their pockets for something that's essentially a straight-up donation (as opposed to something like a billboard spot for a business that might be closer to a genuine, face-value endorsement deal). My guess, though, is that there wouldn't be too many universities that would have the means to just throw 6-figures at multiple members of ever incoming class. Along these lines, I imagine that at programs like Ole Miss, the sum of funny-business payments right now might not be that much lower than what the sum would be when limited only by the willingness/ability to pay of boosters, unconstrained by NCAA "oversight".
|19 weeks 5 days ago||If I'm the highest paid||
If I'm the highest paid official at a universtiy, and I'm told that several students might have raped another student, I do everything within my role to facilitate a serious and fair investigation, and I certainly don't try to impede such an investigation before it begins. If I fail in this, I shouldn't continue to be employed by the university.
|19 weeks 6 days ago||It seriously strains||
It seriously strains credibility to think that the conversation between Jones and the player was anything more innocuous than "You're about to face some serious questions along lines X, Y, and Z; get your ducks in a row." And that to me is wildly immoral, and is ample grounds for firing.
Is it conceivable that the conversation *was* more innocuous than that? Perhaps, but at the very least it was unethical and extraordinarily stupid, and, given that we likely never know for certain what was said, I'm completely fine with acting on the existing circumstantial evidence (which is substanial, and includes not just the direct circumstances around the call, but other documented incidents of Jones going way beyond any lines of ethical conduct to circle wagons around team members accused of sexual assault).
|19 weeks 6 days ago||By contacting the players||
By contacting the players first, he sabotaged a process aimed at getting closer to the truth of the alleged offense. In doing so, he demonstrates completely straightforwardly that he doesn't give a shit about that truth, or about getting to justice for potential victims. If you don't see what's wrong with this, I don't really know what to tell you.
|19 weeks 6 days ago||Maybe in the sense of an actual commission of a||
Maybe in the sense of an actual commission of a crime (though I'm really out of my legal depth here), but Butch's actions go way beyond what I'd consider a fireable offense. Basically what he did was demonstrate in the clearest possible way that he didn't care to know whether two of his players are rapists, or to help a grave legal and moral matter progress toward its best possible outcome. It's a travesty if this guy stays on at Tennessee or gets a head coaching job anywhere else, as he's clearly unfit for the position.
|19 weeks 6 days ago||I don't think an open-palm grip is that dangerous||
I don't think an open-palm grip is that dangerous if you're doing it right. The USC kid was apparently trying to do some stunt plyometric nonsense, throwing a heavily loaded bar medicine-ball-style at top of movement and catching it on way down. That, indeed, is a poor idea.
|21 weeks 4 days ago||Meta point about "data-driven" X||
The framing of this issue highlights an important pitfall with respect to obsessions over "data-driven" decisions. Obviously, it's better to know more about the world than less, and we should use real knowledge to do smarter things. But good (less charitably: non-useless) empirical work can be *really* hard. As highlighted in this thread: there are a million things -- changing body types, different training methods, different approaches to pitching intensity -- that confound and are likely endogenous to pitch counts. Teasing out all the different causal pathways to pitcher injury rates would be an enormously difficult thing to do well. Which is not to say that we shouldn't try to do it, or that it wouldn't be useful if we did. But the absence of solid empirical evidence in favor of pitch counts doesn't count as evidence against them. More generally: there are other good reasons to do things besides overwhelming empirical evidence.
|22 weeks 5 days ago||Recruiting advantage||
I could see this story getting used advantageously as part of a broader recruiting pitch. When you read interviews with kids that choose Kentucky, they always cite Calipari's record of putting guys in the Lottery, and it's obvious that this is a huge part of how they sell themselves to recruits. Calipari can point to this declaration business and say more forcefully, "I'm going to do everything I can to help your entry into pro basketball." I think it could have a real positive effect in cementing a perceptual advantage: Calipari will get you in the NBA.
|23 weeks 5 days ago||So exactly what I said?||
So exactly what I said?
|23 weeks 5 days ago||Bar exercises stay in style||
So I fully acknowledge that appearances matter, and I'm fine with catering to them. But "old school out-dated" doesn't make much sense when you're talking about the actual equipment. If guys are pressing, squatting, deadlifting, and cleaning a lot of weight, I'm not sure how much else you need in terms of strength facilities. Granted, you might want to do some boutique stuff for rehab/pre-hab and to address specific weaknesses, but even that is generally best accomplished through free weights/kettle bells. The marginal benefit of whatever hi-tech machine is going to be really small relative to the benefit of a loaded bar.
|23 weeks 6 days ago||Weightrooms being up-to-date||
Not that aesthetics don't matter, but it looks like the primary differences across schools are just aesthetic. I mean, it's not so hard to stock enough squat racks and powerlifting platforms. After that, everything else is pretty much auxiliary.
(In other words, the functional difference between a state-of-the-art facility and a serious meathead's garage is not as great as I think a lot of people imagine.)