even though individual numbers (like wisconsin) don't pass the smell test, you do a great job at providing details and caveats.
if i take a more near term view where i can have more confidence in the data and look at the next three games your numbers tell me Michigan has a:
22% chance of being 8-0
43% chance of being 7-1 (so a 65% chance of at least 7 wins after 8 games)
29% chance of being 6-2
6% chance of being 5-3
those numbers probably do pass the smell test at least based on what we know now....definitely helps a lot that the two better teams play in ann arbor. then add the fact that purdue and illinois follow those three games...i'm getting ahead of myself...
i was showing the lines that were implied by the odds of winning that i was showing (apologies if that was not clear). It was meant to be another data point - we've been conditioned to think in terms of point spreads as opposed to probabilities so if i say there is a 74% chance of winning that probably means less to someone than if I say the point spread is 8.
Are those lines of which you speak up to date? If you want to post the current actual lines for these games since you know them that would be cool. I know in the preseason lines UM was a dog in those games but I would be surprised if we were still a dog to Illinois. I've been wrong before of course.
As a quick check i looked at this weeks game between ranked teams, Nebraska at Va tech. Va tech is at home and ranked on average 8 spots higher (11 vs. 19). this would imply a spread of 4.5 and most books right now have it at 4.5 -5.5 so it is in line. And yes I know that the plural of anecdote is not data.
Sagarin has PSU 17 and OSU 5 - I used Sagarin as he has been around forever and is part of the BCS so has some credibility but historically I have never really liked his numbers (though he does have UM at 20). the end result is a couple spots so the impact is not huge. so add/subtract a couple % from each if you like. it is a net zero from overall season perspective.
I know 82% vs. Illinois looks way high - I gave the raw data I used and that's what I came up with using that, so people can make their own decisions, but as I say in the post both Illinois and MSU look too high to me. Hard to know what either of those two teams has, other than the fact that they both have bad losses.
but about 10 minutes in Excel. the model was arbitrary, the inputs were opinion, the calculations were simple, and the tone was jovial. which was all kind of the point.
In reality the entire post was an elaborate smokescreen contrived to get Demetrius Brown the mgoblog love that he so richly deserves.
I believe mission accomplished on that score
Although Sagarin does rank all FBS and FCS teams together. I stopped reading when I saw Delaware at 116, looked again after this and he has DSU at 200. As you said though - doesn't change the math
I always had a soft spot for Demetrius because it seemed whenever I walked into Pinball Pete's he would be there playing Electronic Quarterback. Always made me smile.
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Michigan 49
Iowa 34
even though individual numbers (like wisconsin) don't pass the smell test, you do a great job at providing details and caveats.
if i take a more near term view where i can have more confidence in the data and look at the next three games your numbers tell me Michigan has a:
22% chance of being 8-0
43% chance of being 7-1 (so a 65% chance of at least 7 wins after 8 games)
29% chance of being 6-2
6% chance of being 5-3
those numbers probably do pass the smell test at least based on what we know now....definitely helps a lot that the two better teams play in ann arbor. then add the fact that purdue and illinois follow those three games...i'm getting ahead of myself...