He was supposedly a good recruiter. Having him be the front end with recruits and Elston on the back end with keeping the scheme and development would be optimal. Elston was at the presser today if I recall, but Clink was not.
Listened to Sam Webb's recap of the presser. It looks like we're going to get what we want with renewed resources and emphasis on recruiting. But you can't have it both ways, most recruiters are not good at Xs and Os and vice versa. Was Minter a good recruiter, I have heard that.
This is a refreshing take. I'll add that this is now a do or die moment for JH and the NFL. His star is never going to be brighter than it is now after winning a natty. And let's be realistic, this roster is not set up for another run at the title next year.
Let's say the Chargers and/or the Falcons offer JH this time, but they give him terms they will give to Vrabel. Does JH take that, just to get his foot in the door? All this talk about control and what not, no offer has been made.
Everyone is saying that JH has all the leverage but it's not true. The likely NFL outcome is that he gets an offer, but on far weaker terms than he wants. He will then have to make a decision. If he decides to pass this time, UM should force him to make a decision about staying at UM without these NFL dalliances.
My guess, though, is that he takes a lesser NFL offer. If it doesn't work out he's in the door again, and he can always go through the NFL revolving door.
Let's say this story is sensationalized click-bait, and that in the end, cooler heads prevail.
Even in that best case scenario, the fact that we got to this point with the B10 in the first place, especially in light of the NCAA not having the evidence to connect the sign stealing to Harbaugh, should really result in some serious soul searching. This includes, in my view, potential calls to the ACC and SEC, the TV networks, and even to ND about their arrangement with the ACC.
Kind of reminds you of Texas in the B12. And then look what happened. If they are going to join eventually, then Swarbick needs to be out and without influence once he's out, along with Jenkins. They're both leaving officially though. Swarbick was such a tool for handing a termination notice during a game.
I see this not as protecting their game with Stanford (which will go away after next year anyways unless it's extended), but rather as ND trying to save the ACC in order for them to stay independent. It's a fool's errand though. If this were about academic prestige or olympic sports, Stanford would be in the B10 now. This is about $$$ tied to football. Clemson and FSU don't care.
Had JH not promised WM last year that this NFL dalliance was not going to continue, had he not said pretty unequivocally just one month ago that he would be back in 2023, had he not put out a wishy-washy statement that nevertheless ended with "those who stay will be champions", then I might agree with this given what he has accomplished. However, given that all of those things did happen, and literally within 72 hours of posting a message that ended with a giant "those who stay will be champions" it's now come out that he's interviewing with NFL teams again, then maybe it's time for WM to start coming up with contingency plans instead of waiting for this soap opera to play out and then react.
Let's be clear eyed about what's happening here folks. This is a pure power play. JH is doing this because JH, his agent, or both of them together have figured out that they can get away with it b/c there is no one out there like JH who knows the culture and is a proven winner at the highest levels. Not a single assistant has HC experience. No a single other person checks the boxes for potentially being available (e.g. Urban, Dabo), winning at the highest levels (e.g. Urban, Dabo), and culture fit (not Urban, not Dabo, but a bunch of other guys who have not won at the highest levels). As a result, he knows that WM won't/can't fire him, he knows that he doesn't have to accept ultimatums, he can be coy with the media, and he can use all this as leverage to get the NFL terms he wants, and then still use the school as a fallback plan if he doesn't get the NFL terms he wants.
What's disappointing is that we're not also hearing names that have popped up as potential replacements. If WM wants to play this game, he should have started to kick the tires the moment JH did not sign a contract extension he should have been given immediately after the OSU game. If this had happened, JH might think he doesn't have a free hand, because WM has a replacement lined up, he's talked with key assistants to keep them on board, and he can afford (even if it is a bluff) to give JH an ultimatum to sign the contract extension or resign.
This sounds like leverage to get what he wants from a NFL job (stable current roster (i.e. not Denver), total or near total control over players, no ownership meddling, long-term contract with guarantees). If he doesn't get it, he can come back. If he does get it, he can say "I really wanted to stay at Michigan but this is my dream job and I was given the keys to the ship so I couldn't pass it up!" The question is, will a NFL team check all those boxes. Indy maybe, Carolina?
What this does not sound like is leverage to better his contract with Michigan. Unless WM is totally incompetent, he's probably already initiated those discussions with an eye towards a long term deal to put this issue to rest. For all we know this has already happened but without said contract, which is why we heard the "I'll be back" stuff before (but without a new contract). I don't think it's a NIL play either since JH sounds sincere about the "transformational, not transactional" stuff. This could also explain JUB's comment about JH being tired of the current state of college football.
The problem is that if he doesn't get a NFL job on terms he wants and comes back, this is now going to be used against him in recruiting pretty much until he does leave. And there's no clear coach-in-waiting in the coaching staff that wouldn't be a huge risk as none of them have HC experience at all. There's also no coach on the market that checks the boxes on both winning at the highest levels (e.g. Urban) and culture (a bunch of guys), meaning that hiring from the outside would also be a risk because it's more risk that what you're getting now with the one guy who does check those two boxes.
Regardless of what ultimately happens, if I'm WM, I'm also going into the market RIGHT NOW to poke around to see who's out there and who may be interested. I'm also having conversations with key assistants like Moore, Hart, and Clink to make sure they're happy and to prevent there from being an expectations gap leading to a Gattis situation. It's not time to be passive anymore.
The LSU fans were saying the same thing about Brian Kelly.
My point is that there needs to be a proven winner in order to keep the current momentum, and no one has brought up a name that fits this criteria. By 'proven winner', I mean someone who has won at the highest levels, not a one hit wonder (like Kalen DeBoer) or someone who has only won at a mid-level program (like Fickell). You have a better idea. The only other name I can think of is Urban. Maybe Sonny Dykes, but no that's a bad 'cultural fit'.
Anyone who thinks this program will not take a step (or two, or three) back with an unproven coach like Sherrone Moore is lying to themselves. Look at Marcus Freeman at ND (four losses, including to Marshall and Stanford, close wins against bad teams, declining recruiting class, which was supposed to be his ace). Look at Ryan Day to an extent (had he fielded the team that just played Georgia in Columbus, I don't think even we as fans would have expected the same outcome). Even the Saban assistants are a mixed bag. Yes there's Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin but there's also Sark, Pruitt, and Napier. Kirby Smart has inherent advantages that Michigan doesn't (natural recruiting base, all in on NIL). Even Lane Kiffin admits that he learned from Saban but he also learned from his past two coaching stops.
What we are seeing with Juwan Howard (as much as we love him), is that first time coaches have to learn on the job. You combine that with not being all in on NIL, and it's a recipe for a decline that we don't want. We shouldn't delude ourselves about how vulnerable the program will be if JH does in fact leave.
What about Dabo, doesn't hurt to ask. He's in an impossible situation right now being in the ACC with expectations that he created. You keep hearing him talk about culture and building a program, a lot of "transformational not transactional" vibes. He's in a situation like Brian Kelly was last year. Just a thought.
The 0.1% chance of just catching up to the time, Deion with the staff largely in tact. The 99.9% chance of living in the past, how about Dabo? He constantly talks about culture, has avoided the portal, and maybe he had to do those shady things out of necessity b/c he's at Clemson, not because he wanted to. He's in an impossible situation right now being stuck in the ACC but with expectations that he created. A lot like Brian Kelly, so why not?
Both could be true. JH could really want to go, but he's trying to gain leverage in negotiations over contract terms and control so he goes to the best possible NFL situation, hence the "extremely unlikely".
A lot of you have forgotten what was coming out during the JJ/Cade QB competition. We consistently heard JJ had the better upside but that he was turnover prone. If you let him loose, like this game where it was done out of necessity, this may have been the norm. Maybe that's why the offensive playcalling was conservative this year and the team leaned heavily on Corum until he was hurt. We keep saying "why give it to Corum 30 times, we need to throw it more with JJ and let him loose!" Well, maybe this is what you get when you let him loose. The decision-making and pocket awareness needs to improve during this offseason. He's still very raw and far from a finished product. Having a go-to receiver emerge would help too.
Exactly, I like this middle way. Recruits like Jadyn Davis have proven they value UM and genuninely want to be here. Yet they are likely to get six figures from other programs, which no kid or his family can simply ignore. If you were in his position, or you were his parents, how would you view it, seriously! There needs to be a balance between the culture of the program (which is admirable) and the reality on the ground.
The question is not sell out or stick to your principles, it's a matter of degree. Do you do this only for QBs, or does this apply to other five stars. If you only do this with QBs, are you going to see active portal activity with proven players who are not all coming from peer academic schools (like this year), to fill the gap. Are you going to wait for results on the field to start dictating a change in direction.
Lastly, as a general point, I think you need to look at what other like-minded schools are doing. ND just lost a bunch of guys for NIL related reasons too but it would be silly to assume that they are not in the game. USC looks like they are all in on NIL and the transfer portal. It's a matter of degree, folks. We are not Stanford.
Eliminating divisions and conference expansion in general has hurt them and I think they know it. Iowa and Nebraska are in the same situation. Nebraska hardly recruits in TX anymore even though TX was a linchpin for them when they were winning in the B12. Conference expansion helps us and the OSUs go into new regions to get five and high four stars, and it will probably help USC and UCLA keep talent home with the bigger platform of playing BIG games, but over time I think it will hurt these geographically isolated overachieving teams. Case in point, Jonathan Taylor nearly committed to Rutgers over Wisconsin. Both Wisconsin and Iowa have relied on South Jersey to get solid three and four star players. You have to wonder whether a Taylor would commit to them now or whether Schiano can keep them home. Maryland is further ahead and they have occasionally been able to keep a five star home. Now they seem to have competent coordinators, meaning they can easily start to rise above the Wisconsin and Iowas of the world on a consistent basis with divisions being eliminated. Hard to see how Wisconsin can maintain the recent success unless they really commit to winning and NIL.
This looks like sour grapes driven by Cal. I wonder if it's worth the drama, Cal is essentially worthless on the field and financially. Oregon would probably be more valuable anyways and part of their deal can include a package from Nike, underwritten by Uncle Phil. Stanford, that would bring in at least a Top 3 university to the BIG.
Just from a viewing quality perspective, why would they give the prime time game to NBC and not to CBS, who had been broadcasting SEC games with better announcers and quality for the last 40 years. Unless NBC brings on Desmond and Herbie from ESPN (they're kind of isolated now at ESPN), just seems like this move is being done primarily to box ND into a corner, viewing quality be damned, and perhaps accepting less money just to do this.
I don't want ND to be forced into the BIG. I want them to make a commitment to do it, to sell it to their stakeholders, and to be at peace with the decision. Otherwise they'll just be looking for a way out when the economics work in their favor in the future (if it ever does). Although if I were them now, I'd be pretty pissed at NBC for doing this. This is pretty much all about $$$.
He could just transfer in 2 years if Oregon is on the outside looking in. What he will have for sure is 2 years of pay to play money, which Michigan can't offer. Also, Michigan can't offer a stable coaching situation either. Look at it from a player's perspective, even if Harbaugh has given up on the NFL, does anyone think that Weiss is going to be the long term OC? No one wants that uncertainty and it needs to put to rest either with a coach in waiting (if Harbaugh really does want another shot at the NFL), or at least at coach in waiting as the OC.
Isn't ND's total broadcast revenue now just 50M? You would think if NBC was still committed they would up that to help ND, but didn't NBC also just try to talk to the B10 about B10 games?
Fwiw, I have a good domer friend who's literally sixth generation ND and he told me the AD's finances have been slipping for the past few years (generally and also due to travel costs being in the ACC for all sports but football) and this was the untold underlying reason why Kelly left. Apparently, there's also a group of professors who are upset the school has had to divert finances away from the school to the AD (hence the untimely annual leaks about some football players barely being eligible). Swarbick has also said publicly that he would rethink independence if the finances of being independent no longer made sense.
Seems like they're putting on a giant facade to try to maintain independence but are now being backed into a corner financially. So in reality they need the BIG more than the BIG needs them, or they would have to join the SEC which is unthinkable for them. Right now, the BIG and SEC hold all the cards. They can start negotiating a playoff between the two leagues, and then wait for the programs on the outside looking in (ND, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Oregon, Wash.) to come to the table begging. If I were Kevin Warren, I'm on the phone with Sankey right now scheming up how to divvy the spoils. BIG gets ND and whatever West coast schools they want, SEC gets the ACC teams they want.
Fwiw, Jadyn Davis is projected to come to Michigan and Michigan is the only "warm" on the 247 page. He would be walking into effectively an empty QB room. He's teammates with Jonathan Goodwin's son who is a receiver. Yes you risk a Shane Morris situation where you're putting all your eggs in one basket, but looking at the videos of him, he looks like a very mature, composed QB who's accurate with good decision making.
I think the bad vibes around recruiting will start to dissipate once the season starts. This is going to be a solid, high scoring team. Once the recruits see that there's still quality on the field, all the negative recruiting will start to dissipate.
Here's a compromise solution between pay to play and "transformational not transactional". You promise the player a pay to play, but most of it is payable only after they graduate, with a small advance to sign, or it's incentivized in a way that rewards the player for playing school and/or not transferring. NIL while they're playing is between the player and the collective.
I think it's far too early to judge Mike Hart and Denard's recruiting chops, esp. for offensive players. Comparing them to Courtney Morgan is also apples and oranges because he didn't have to deal with the negative recruiting associated with Harbaugh almost leaving. That negative recruiting (Harbaugh almost left and if he does leave he will take Weiss with him, thereby giving you no stability on offense; you have no stability on defense because of a 1st year DC) will keep getting pounded against all members of the recruiting staff until there's a clear path for succession and winning on the field.
The situation with Harbaugh almost leaving is not going to go away unless there's winning on the field. It's an unsustainable situation long term and I don't blame recruits for holding it against UM. The team looked good and hungry in the spring so next season can be good, in which case we'll know if Harbaugh really wants to leave or not (if he has another good year and doesn't leave, that will probably settle recruits).
Interesting video clip, when even Saban thinks the situation is out of control, you know there's a problem! I would be shocked if he wasn't playing the game, but he doesn't look very comfortable about pay to play and actually sounded quite genuine.
As for solutions, a no up front money rule (i.e. no pay to play) plus enforcement of that under the table deals would be a good start. Once the player is on campus, he can do whatever he wants with NIL. You need to band together other programs for momentum to push this through and isolate the programs that are taking pay to play to the extreme (i.e. the Texas schools, USC).
Surprised no one has brought up what USC just did basically outbidding Pitt for Jordan Addison, before he even entered the transfer portal (which is pay to play AND tampering). USC is a peer school. Duke is better than us and Coach K was routinely getting one and dones towards the end of his career (maybe that's the reason why he retired, point is he did it, his successor will probably do it too to win).
The idea that somehow our degree has more value, which means we can't get too involved with NIL, is self-defeating and wrong. There is only one school that can make this argument, and it's Stanford. Everyone else has to play the game, and those like us and other like minded schools can work behind the scenes in the meantime to create some rules of the road so the "college" part stays. Once you fall behind, climbing back up will take decades. We are now threading a needle by having two coaches who in all likelihood wouldn't be here if they didn't play here.
I would suspend Juwan for the rest of the season (inc. the post-season), require him to publicly apologize and to attend and pass anger management, and re-work his contract so that if this happens again, he is fired immediately with cause.
I would be a little more generous with the players since this wasn't really instigated by them.
For those calling for Beilein, stop dreaming. Martelli is fully capable of coaching the rest of the season.
At this point, do we even know if Harbaugh will be able to survive? If other assistants are as pissed as Gattis, then who's to say they won't bolt as well. There is no new contract and while we all assume it will be done, who's to say that won't be protracted as well. It's kind of open season now.
The one positive is that the pressure to win on Harbaugh will be greater than it's ever been. If the team reverts to a 8-4 mean next year, and/or he can't hold the team together (one of the QBs transfers after the spring), every single one of you that is groveling over him staying right now will be calling for his head, and using this episode as example #1 as to why a change is needed.
This is not a "Bo moment". Heck this isn't even a Brian Kelly moment. This was Harbaugh actively pursuing any NFL job he could get, no matter the fit and circumstances (no evidence of past ties, better situation, more money, more power, or more flexibility), to the point where he flew out for what appeared to be a final interview on national signing day.
Call me old fashioned, but I would have fired him for getting on the plane. By not doing so, Warde is surrendering to Harbaugh and tacitly admitting that Harbaugh is bigger than the program. I wonder if the situation would have been different if the school itself wasn't distracted by scandal as they are now. Whether he likes it or not, he is also tarnishing the legacy of Bo and the culture built up over DECADES. The only way this can be even remotely justifiable is if the winning continues. And by winning, I mean progress from this year and not a Brian Kelly like situation at ND.
If this were to happen at my workplace, and I didn't have the authority to fire him for getting on the plane, here's what I would do. I would re-negotiate the contract with the buyout for Michigan at or near zero. I would be able to live with Harbaugh's buyout being at or near zero too. I would then immediately put feelers out to the best up-and-coming coaches in the country, such as Aranda, and check in with them from time to time. I would reach out to Mike Hart in secret and tell him to provide constant updates on what's going on within the program, as well as telling him that he would be a candidate if Harbaugh were to leave or be fired. I would reach out to the best players (JJ, Edwards) and potential leaders (Bell) and assure them that a top coach would be coming in if Harbaugh were to ever leave / be fired. I would then spread the information about feelers to other top coaches to the media and in the recruiting world, basically telling recruits that Harbaugh is the floor, not the ceiling. Basically do to Harbaugh what he did to the team, the AD, the school, the alumni, and the fans. He did do well under immense pressure this year, so here's to hoping that he can pull it off again. If he fails, then Plan B should be implemented as early as next year.
I will remember him as coming extremely close in the first couple of years, followed by a slow death by a thousand cuts decline in recruiting and on the field, followed by a final resurrection year that came too late.
He didn't work wonders. What has been forgotten is that he inherited a solid group of players except a QB from Hoke, who turned out to be an excellent recruiter but incompetent coach. A slightly better coach would have gotten the 2016 team over the line and into the CFP. That would have created the momentum for Harbaugh to land an Andrew Luck type QB like Trevor Lawrence to make this an elite team. That never happened.
Just goes to show you that first impressions and what you do initially really matter in college football, and in life.
If he stays, this saga will be used against him and the program in recruiting for years to come (as if we didn't have enough built-in disadvantages there already with NIL and admissions). If Mike Hart is the heir apparent, elevate him to OC, and let Gattis to go Miami or another comparable school. If Gattis the heir apparent, then start preparing for that.
I wouldn't just let this go. The only way this doesn't get used against him and the program is if the holdout resulted in something tangible with NIL and the transfer portal, but there are no indications of that.
I would say the former, as we would have heard about a NIL program if there was one. To say that NIL didn't impact the Nolan recruitment is like saying there was no NIL when it was under the table. He ended up at A&M.
If he can't tap the portal except for grad transfers or players from like minded or better schools, and if he has to bring in players who play school, then the NIL has to not only be top 5, but top 1-2 to make up for what AL and GA are doing. Keep in mind, A&M, Texas, OSU, LSU, Oregon etc all want to win too.
The more I think about it, the more I get the feeling that this is real. Even if he doesn't leave this year, he will leave in the not too distant future unless there is a clear NIL plan. The gap is only going to grow wider without elite NIL to make up for all the other things we can't do but AL and GA can. If the playoffs expand to 8 or 12, getting there will be easier and we'll in all likelihood only have to be the second best team in the BIG. However, even if you consistently get there, getting thumped by AL/GA every time can wear on you.
As much as we don't like each other, ND is in a very similar situation. While we can laugh at Kelly for leaving, he does have a legitimate point about not being able to win a national championship at ND. They (along with MSU and PSU) are trying to overcome shortcomings with elite recruiters as HCs, but that can only take you so fair. In the world of NIL money talks, and you can't blame these players for wanting their fair share.
I have an insider source at ND (6th generation, entire family went there), and this doesn't surprise me. Apparently, the one thing that kept Kelly at ND was winning. A lot of boosters were pissed that he openly came out as pro-choice (not necessarily the belief, but being open about it). The school administrators didn't like how he was bending academic rules, and he was pissed about annual academic leaks at inopportune times about key players. It wasn't a good fit but the winning held everything together. The common belief was that he was going to the NFL.
Given all that, I'm surprised they are going after Kingsbury. He doesn't check the boxes with what the boosters and academic administrators want, which is a combination of winning, playing school, and being a practicing Catholic. It reminds me a lot of RichRod. Fickell would be a good fit for them and I can see that working really well but they are most likely going to have to wait for him.
I don't know about Georgia beating Bama. Saban has an uncanny ability to scheme against former assistants. Their offensive line is leaky (7 sacks to Auburn yesterday) and they don't have a lot of playmakers apart from Bryce Young but their defense is still good. Also, Georgia's QB Bennett is basically a zero star (though they have JT Daniels as a backup). They haven't seen a Saban-like defense since week 1, when they managed just one FG (their only score was a pick 6). So I can see a defensive struggle, but Saban has the edge in terms of experience.
Oregon, PSU and Nebraska all slowed down this offense. Stroud gets rattled with pressure and he looks lost when he has to scramble. PSU has a legit secondary that we don't have and Oregon was early in the year. I would focus on the Nebraska game, where they were able to flush him out of the pocket and force bad reads/throws, including two picks that were all on Stroud. He still doesn't do well when a play breaks down and he has to improvise. The front four and the LBs will need to have the game of their lives because our secondary obviously can't hold up and our offense wouldn't be able to keep up in a shootout. I suspect they will come out and try to run the ball a little bit to soften up the coverage, so the LB play will be key. If they can run the ball, then I don't see any way we stop them.
I'm not a fan of 12 or 16, even if there are guarantees for G5 schools for parity and byes for top teams. That means we could go 10-2 this year, lose to our rivals with a lot of other close wins, and be in. That diminishes the value and stakes of regular season games. And it effectively allows Harbaugh to claim a successful season no matter what. He can lose to both rivals each year and still say the season was a success because he made the playoff.
Purdue is potentially a bad matchup for Sparty given Purdue's passing offense and will be an interesting test given their high from this week and the fact that they're on the road. I think they will be fine because Mel Tucker will have them prepared, but I wouldn't overlook that game. Purdue has done this before and Sparty's pass defense has been consistently poor.
A very important barometer for me will be the PSU game. They were competitive today against OSU for most of that game, even though Clifford probably isn't at 100%, they still can't run the ball at all, and Franklin is most likely poking around. Point being, a flawed team put up a good effort against OSU today, so OSU is not this invincible team. Oregon is a flawed team as well and they found a way to win even though OSU put up over 600 yards against them.
A 9-3 record with losses to MSU, PSU, and OSU (most likely by a lot), would have me wondering what else we have to lose. However, a win at PSU, coupled with a competitive game against OSU, would go a long way to take the sting out of this loss and move forward with Harbaugh and this staff.
We need to be realistic and not get emotional. If we end up on the market for a HC, we will be viewed as a third choice behind the LSU and USC jobs. If Franklin bolts, I'm not sold that we would be viewed as a better job that PSU (their fanbase is pretty demanding as well but they aren't cursed in rivalry games like we are). I'm also not sold that Fickell will take the job if offered given his OSU ties, and keep in mind he may be a prime target for the PSU job if Franklin leaves, and taking that job wouldn't burn the bridges he would burn if he took our job. So for those of you calling for a change, you need to be ready for Matt Campbell or Pat Fitzgerald as your HC next year.
Maybe better coaching would have resulted in a win today, but the deeper issue is lack of overall elite talent. If Bama or Georgia were out there today, MSU with the way they play loses by at least 20. They would just man up the LOS, stop Walker, and then get to the QB on pass rushes even if the WRs are open (which against good secondaries, I'm not convinced they will be). Then they'll run the ball and dink and dunk their way into a comfortable 35-7 style victory. We saw flashes of the better talent today, but not enough of it.
I tend to agree that every time there is a dogfight, Harbaugh teams crumble. The recruiting is a bigger issue IMO. We can't be an underdog or program building type program because we've never been that in our hisotry. We have to be a Bama or Georgia or OSU like team that accumulates talent and uses it on gamedays. Right now, there's a clear talent gap between playoff teams and us, and it results in these games where we get snakebitten. I just wonder who else you can bring in here that can do better with that.
The deep balls were clearly inaccurate, but it looked as if the bigger problem was the WRs not getting open. Maybe others were open but Cade didn't see them.
Yet his name has already popped up as a favorite. I actually don't think Kiffin will leave. He gets to use this pedestal to give the finger to the rest of the SEC with no real pressure to win.
If they could bring Joe Brady back as OC with Mel Tucker as the HC I could see that working.
This is spot on. I'll add that Clemson is basically running a college "we have better athletes than you do" offense that relies on having stars in each position (look at it now when they don't). So it was easier for Trevor Lawrence to transition into that scheme. If JJ is far along with the playbook, we would be seeing more than read-options and one-read deep balls. My guess is that he's not even close with the complex playbook and will need at least an offseason to learn it and execute it with game speed. Right now, he's a change up like Peppers but with the ability to hit a one-read deep ball.
There aren't better options than Cade right now so instead of criticizing let's hope he uses the bye to improve his consistency.
Excellent game plan, offense could have done more if Cade hits the intermediate throws. Defense playing to strengths. Team came prepared and did not play scared. There will be more tests, but this performance had to instill a lot of confidence in the players about gameplan and execution.
Rutgers never has, nor will they in the future, land the top players from NJ. In the old days, those players were picked up by PSU and ND. Now, all the top national programs outside the West Coast go after those guys.
Where they have opportunity is with the players a rank down (think high 3 star; low 4 star guys). Rutgers has been losing those players to mid-level ACC and B10 teams (think BC and Iowa type programs). The pandemic actually gives them an advantage because these players may want to stay closer to home, and they can't freely travel to visit other schools like they used to. Schiano was able to turn a number of under the radar guys into NFL prospects his first go around, and he will need to do that again to convince these types of players to stay. It's doable, though. Very similar dynamic at Maryland.
The Alliance will only work if there are big match-ups on a consistent basis. With everyone from Generation X onwards cutting the cord, we are headed towards pay-per-view and small package streaming, which means the big match-ups will get the most buys and views and carry everyone else. You already see that with international soccer. The only way to keep up with the big SEC match-ups is to match them with big Alliance match-ups. As long as the big Alliance match-ups are good, I think the top Alliance teams can still get a portion of the top players that want to play school and get paid decent NIL. This means we need to consistently be playing the likes of USC and ND, while Rutgers keeps playing BC and Oregon St. In turn, it means that Alliance match-up revenue sharing cannot be equal and the top teams need to get a significant cut (perhaps even more than 50%), so they can keep up with the top SEC teams.
There really isn't an alternative, is there. If the BIG raids part of the PAC and/or ACC, it's pretty much out-SECing the SEC. I don't think you want to get into that cycle. The expanded league would also look like a mess geographically. The Alliance is more democratic but in the end it works for us as long as what I said above ends up reflected in the contracts.
For all you anti-vaxxers out there, if you refuse to get the vaccine, are you willing to undertake to everyone else that you are wearing N95 masks indoors, that you are taking precautions to avoid getting it. Of course not. See, the problem with anti-vaxxers is that they throw a lot of stuff on the wall, when when they really want is for society to barrel towards herd immunity. They want you to accept the risk, go live normal lives, get it, and then live and let live. The vaccine is an impediment because people getting it means that there is risk and that society should take measures against it.
Here's an interesting WSJ article about how US growth is projected to surpass China's growth in the next 5 quarters, something that hasn't happened since 1990 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-likely-to-outgrow-chinas-due-to-contrast-in-pandemic-responses-11629036000). The dirty little secret is that barrelling towards herd immunity does produce better short-term economic results, but it comes at the steep price of loss of life and hospitalizations / medical bills.
It just shows you how selfish our society has become.
USC appears to want to exclude other CA teams, which makes sense if you think about because USC being the only BIG school in CA would give them a recruiting advantage.
I think the presidents would also want Stanford just for the prestige.
The only way this would work is if the SEC also raided the ACC, resulting in the ACC disbanding (and therefore the payouts not applying anymore presumably). For example, the BIG takes UVA/UNC/Duke/GA Tech/ND, and the SEC takes Clemson/FSU/Miami/VA Tech. Imagine if the BIG was working with the SEC now to raid the ACC to a point where the payouts wouldn't apply because the ACC would just disband.
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He was supposedly a good recruiter. Having him be the front end with recruits and Elston on the back end with keeping the scheme and development would be optimal. Elston was at the presser today if I recall, but Clink was not.
Listened to Sam Webb's recap of the presser. It looks like we're going to get what we want with renewed resources and emphasis on recruiting. But you can't have it both ways, most recruiters are not good at Xs and Os and vice versa. Was Minter a good recruiter, I have heard that.
They crossed paths at Louisville. Listen to the Sam Webb presser recap.
This is a refreshing take. I'll add that this is now a do or die moment for JH and the NFL. His star is never going to be brighter than it is now after winning a natty. And let's be realistic, this roster is not set up for another run at the title next year.
Let's say the Chargers and/or the Falcons offer JH this time, but they give him terms they will give to Vrabel. Does JH take that, just to get his foot in the door? All this talk about control and what not, no offer has been made.
Everyone is saying that JH has all the leverage but it's not true. The likely NFL outcome is that he gets an offer, but on far weaker terms than he wants. He will then have to make a decision. If he decides to pass this time, UM should force him to make a decision about staying at UM without these NFL dalliances.
My guess, though, is that he takes a lesser NFL offer. If it doesn't work out he's in the door again, and he can always go through the NFL revolving door.
Let's say this story is sensationalized click-bait, and that in the end, cooler heads prevail.
Even in that best case scenario, the fact that we got to this point with the B10 in the first place, especially in light of the NCAA not having the evidence to connect the sign stealing to Harbaugh, should really result in some serious soul searching. This includes, in my view, potential calls to the ACC and SEC, the TV networks, and even to ND about their arrangement with the ACC.
Kind of reminds you of Texas in the B12. And then look what happened. If they are going to join eventually, then Swarbick needs to be out and without influence once he's out, along with Jenkins. They're both leaving officially though. Swarbick was such a tool for handing a termination notice during a game.
I see this not as protecting their game with Stanford (which will go away after next year anyways unless it's extended), but rather as ND trying to save the ACC in order for them to stay independent. It's a fool's errand though. If this were about academic prestige or olympic sports, Stanford would be in the B10 now. This is about $$$ tied to football. Clemson and FSU don't care.
Had JH not promised WM last year that this NFL dalliance was not going to continue, had he not said pretty unequivocally just one month ago that he would be back in 2023, had he not put out a wishy-washy statement that nevertheless ended with "those who stay will be champions", then I might agree with this given what he has accomplished. However, given that all of those things did happen, and literally within 72 hours of posting a message that ended with a giant "those who stay will be champions" it's now come out that he's interviewing with NFL teams again, then maybe it's time for WM to start coming up with contingency plans instead of waiting for this soap opera to play out and then react.
Let's be clear eyed about what's happening here folks. This is a pure power play. JH is doing this because JH, his agent, or both of them together have figured out that they can get away with it b/c there is no one out there like JH who knows the culture and is a proven winner at the highest levels. Not a single assistant has HC experience. No a single other person checks the boxes for potentially being available (e.g. Urban, Dabo), winning at the highest levels (e.g. Urban, Dabo), and culture fit (not Urban, not Dabo, but a bunch of other guys who have not won at the highest levels). As a result, he knows that WM won't/can't fire him, he knows that he doesn't have to accept ultimatums, he can be coy with the media, and he can use all this as leverage to get the NFL terms he wants, and then still use the school as a fallback plan if he doesn't get the NFL terms he wants.
What's disappointing is that we're not also hearing names that have popped up as potential replacements. If WM wants to play this game, he should have started to kick the tires the moment JH did not sign a contract extension he should have been given immediately after the OSU game. If this had happened, JH might think he doesn't have a free hand, because WM has a replacement lined up, he's talked with key assistants to keep them on board, and he can afford (even if it is a bluff) to give JH an ultimatum to sign the contract extension or resign.
This sounds like leverage to get what he wants from a NFL job (stable current roster (i.e. not Denver), total or near total control over players, no ownership meddling, long-term contract with guarantees). If he doesn't get it, he can come back. If he does get it, he can say "I really wanted to stay at Michigan but this is my dream job and I was given the keys to the ship so I couldn't pass it up!" The question is, will a NFL team check all those boxes. Indy maybe, Carolina?
What this does not sound like is leverage to better his contract with Michigan. Unless WM is totally incompetent, he's probably already initiated those discussions with an eye towards a long term deal to put this issue to rest. For all we know this has already happened but without said contract, which is why we heard the "I'll be back" stuff before (but without a new contract). I don't think it's a NIL play either since JH sounds sincere about the "transformational, not transactional" stuff. This could also explain JUB's comment about JH being tired of the current state of college football.
The problem is that if he doesn't get a NFL job on terms he wants and comes back, this is now going to be used against him in recruiting pretty much until he does leave. And there's no clear coach-in-waiting in the coaching staff that wouldn't be a huge risk as none of them have HC experience at all. There's also no coach on the market that checks the boxes on both winning at the highest levels (e.g. Urban) and culture (a bunch of guys), meaning that hiring from the outside would also be a risk because it's more risk that what you're getting now with the one guy who does check those two boxes.
Regardless of what ultimately happens, if I'm WM, I'm also going into the market RIGHT NOW to poke around to see who's out there and who may be interested. I'm also having conversations with key assistants like Moore, Hart, and Clink to make sure they're happy and to prevent there from being an expectations gap leading to a Gattis situation. It's not time to be passive anymore.
The LSU fans were saying the same thing about Brian Kelly.
My point is that there needs to be a proven winner in order to keep the current momentum, and no one has brought up a name that fits this criteria. By 'proven winner', I mean someone who has won at the highest levels, not a one hit wonder (like Kalen DeBoer) or someone who has only won at a mid-level program (like Fickell). You have a better idea. The only other name I can think of is Urban. Maybe Sonny Dykes, but no that's a bad 'cultural fit'.
Anyone who thinks this program will not take a step (or two, or three) back with an unproven coach like Sherrone Moore is lying to themselves. Look at Marcus Freeman at ND (four losses, including to Marshall and Stanford, close wins against bad teams, declining recruiting class, which was supposed to be his ace). Look at Ryan Day to an extent (had he fielded the team that just played Georgia in Columbus, I don't think even we as fans would have expected the same outcome). Even the Saban assistants are a mixed bag. Yes there's Kirby Smart and Lane Kiffin but there's also Sark, Pruitt, and Napier. Kirby Smart has inherent advantages that Michigan doesn't (natural recruiting base, all in on NIL). Even Lane Kiffin admits that he learned from Saban but he also learned from his past two coaching stops.
What we are seeing with Juwan Howard (as much as we love him), is that first time coaches have to learn on the job. You combine that with not being all in on NIL, and it's a recipe for a decline that we don't want. We shouldn't delude ourselves about how vulnerable the program will be if JH does in fact leave.
What about Dabo, doesn't hurt to ask. He's in an impossible situation right now being in the ACC with expectations that he created. You keep hearing him talk about culture and building a program, a lot of "transformational not transactional" vibes. He's in a situation like Brian Kelly was last year. Just a thought.
The 0.1% chance of just catching up to the time, Deion with the staff largely in tact. The 99.9% chance of living in the past, how about Dabo? He constantly talks about culture, has avoided the portal, and maybe he had to do those shady things out of necessity b/c he's at Clemson, not because he wanted to. He's in an impossible situation right now being stuck in the ACC but with expectations that he created. A lot like Brian Kelly, so why not?
Both could be true. JH could really want to go, but he's trying to gain leverage in negotiations over contract terms and control so he goes to the best possible NFL situation, hence the "extremely unlikely".
A lot of you have forgotten what was coming out during the JJ/Cade QB competition. We consistently heard JJ had the better upside but that he was turnover prone. If you let him loose, like this game where it was done out of necessity, this may have been the norm. Maybe that's why the offensive playcalling was conservative this year and the team leaned heavily on Corum until he was hurt. We keep saying "why give it to Corum 30 times, we need to throw it more with JJ and let him loose!" Well, maybe this is what you get when you let him loose. The decision-making and pocket awareness needs to improve during this offseason. He's still very raw and far from a finished product. Having a go-to receiver emerge would help too.
Exactly, I like this middle way. Recruits like Jadyn Davis have proven they value UM and genuninely want to be here. Yet they are likely to get six figures from other programs, which no kid or his family can simply ignore. If you were in his position, or you were his parents, how would you view it, seriously! There needs to be a balance between the culture of the program (which is admirable) and the reality on the ground.
The question is not sell out or stick to your principles, it's a matter of degree. Do you do this only for QBs, or does this apply to other five stars. If you only do this with QBs, are you going to see active portal activity with proven players who are not all coming from peer academic schools (like this year), to fill the gap. Are you going to wait for results on the field to start dictating a change in direction.
Lastly, as a general point, I think you need to look at what other like-minded schools are doing. ND just lost a bunch of guys for NIL related reasons too but it would be silly to assume that they are not in the game. USC looks like they are all in on NIL and the transfer portal. It's a matter of degree, folks. We are not Stanford.
Eliminating divisions and conference expansion in general has hurt them and I think they know it. Iowa and Nebraska are in the same situation. Nebraska hardly recruits in TX anymore even though TX was a linchpin for them when they were winning in the B12. Conference expansion helps us and the OSUs go into new regions to get five and high four stars, and it will probably help USC and UCLA keep talent home with the bigger platform of playing BIG games, but over time I think it will hurt these geographically isolated overachieving teams. Case in point, Jonathan Taylor nearly committed to Rutgers over Wisconsin. Both Wisconsin and Iowa have relied on South Jersey to get solid three and four star players. You have to wonder whether a Taylor would commit to them now or whether Schiano can keep them home. Maryland is further ahead and they have occasionally been able to keep a five star home. Now they seem to have competent coordinators, meaning they can easily start to rise above the Wisconsin and Iowas of the world on a consistent basis with divisions being eliminated. Hard to see how Wisconsin can maintain the recent success unless they really commit to winning and NIL.
This looks like sour grapes driven by Cal. I wonder if it's worth the drama, Cal is essentially worthless on the field and financially. Oregon would probably be more valuable anyways and part of their deal can include a package from Nike, underwritten by Uncle Phil. Stanford, that would bring in at least a Top 3 university to the BIG.
Just from a viewing quality perspective, why would they give the prime time game to NBC and not to CBS, who had been broadcasting SEC games with better announcers and quality for the last 40 years. Unless NBC brings on Desmond and Herbie from ESPN (they're kind of isolated now at ESPN), just seems like this move is being done primarily to box ND into a corner, viewing quality be damned, and perhaps accepting less money just to do this.
I don't want ND to be forced into the BIG. I want them to make a commitment to do it, to sell it to their stakeholders, and to be at peace with the decision. Otherwise they'll just be looking for a way out when the economics work in their favor in the future (if it ever does). Although if I were them now, I'd be pretty pissed at NBC for doing this. This is pretty much all about $$$.
He could just transfer in 2 years if Oregon is on the outside looking in. What he will have for sure is 2 years of pay to play money, which Michigan can't offer. Also, Michigan can't offer a stable coaching situation either. Look at it from a player's perspective, even if Harbaugh has given up on the NFL, does anyone think that Weiss is going to be the long term OC? No one wants that uncertainty and it needs to put to rest either with a coach in waiting (if Harbaugh really does want another shot at the NFL), or at least at coach in waiting as the OC.
Isn't ND's total broadcast revenue now just 50M? You would think if NBC was still committed they would up that to help ND, but didn't NBC also just try to talk to the B10 about B10 games?
Fwiw, I have a good domer friend who's literally sixth generation ND and he told me the AD's finances have been slipping for the past few years (generally and also due to travel costs being in the ACC for all sports but football) and this was the untold underlying reason why Kelly left. Apparently, there's also a group of professors who are upset the school has had to divert finances away from the school to the AD (hence the untimely annual leaks about some football players barely being eligible). Swarbick has also said publicly that he would rethink independence if the finances of being independent no longer made sense.
Seems like they're putting on a giant facade to try to maintain independence but are now being backed into a corner financially. So in reality they need the BIG more than the BIG needs them, or they would have to join the SEC which is unthinkable for them. Right now, the BIG and SEC hold all the cards. They can start negotiating a playoff between the two leagues, and then wait for the programs on the outside looking in (ND, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Oregon, Wash.) to come to the table begging. If I were Kevin Warren, I'm on the phone with Sankey right now scheming up how to divvy the spoils. BIG gets ND and whatever West coast schools they want, SEC gets the ACC teams they want.
Fwiw, Jadyn Davis is projected to come to Michigan and Michigan is the only "warm" on the 247 page. He would be walking into effectively an empty QB room. He's teammates with Jonathan Goodwin's son who is a receiver. Yes you risk a Shane Morris situation where you're putting all your eggs in one basket, but looking at the videos of him, he looks like a very mature, composed QB who's accurate with good decision making.
I think the bad vibes around recruiting will start to dissipate once the season starts. This is going to be a solid, high scoring team. Once the recruits see that there's still quality on the field, all the negative recruiting will start to dissipate.
Here's a compromise solution between pay to play and "transformational not transactional". You promise the player a pay to play, but most of it is payable only after they graduate, with a small advance to sign, or it's incentivized in a way that rewards the player for playing school and/or not transferring. NIL while they're playing is between the player and the collective.
I think it's far too early to judge Mike Hart and Denard's recruiting chops, esp. for offensive players. Comparing them to Courtney Morgan is also apples and oranges because he didn't have to deal with the negative recruiting associated with Harbaugh almost leaving. That negative recruiting (Harbaugh almost left and if he does leave he will take Weiss with him, thereby giving you no stability on offense; you have no stability on defense because of a 1st year DC) will keep getting pounded against all members of the recruiting staff until there's a clear path for succession and winning on the field.
The situation with Harbaugh almost leaving is not going to go away unless there's winning on the field. It's an unsustainable situation long term and I don't blame recruits for holding it against UM. The team looked good and hungry in the spring so next season can be good, in which case we'll know if Harbaugh really wants to leave or not (if he has another good year and doesn't leave, that will probably settle recruits).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oxZKXBvbOI
Interesting video clip, when even Saban thinks the situation is out of control, you know there's a problem! I would be shocked if he wasn't playing the game, but he doesn't look very comfortable about pay to play and actually sounded quite genuine.
As for solutions, a no up front money rule (i.e. no pay to play) plus enforcement of that under the table deals would be a good start. Once the player is on campus, he can do whatever he wants with NIL. You need to band together other programs for momentum to push this through and isolate the programs that are taking pay to play to the extreme (i.e. the Texas schools, USC).
Surprised no one has brought up what USC just did basically outbidding Pitt for Jordan Addison, before he even entered the transfer portal (which is pay to play AND tampering). USC is a peer school. Duke is better than us and Coach K was routinely getting one and dones towards the end of his career (maybe that's the reason why he retired, point is he did it, his successor will probably do it too to win).
The idea that somehow our degree has more value, which means we can't get too involved with NIL, is self-defeating and wrong. There is only one school that can make this argument, and it's Stanford. Everyone else has to play the game, and those like us and other like minded schools can work behind the scenes in the meantime to create some rules of the road so the "college" part stays. Once you fall behind, climbing back up will take decades. We are now threading a needle by having two coaches who in all likelihood wouldn't be here if they didn't play here.
I would suspend Juwan for the rest of the season (inc. the post-season), require him to publicly apologize and to attend and pass anger management, and re-work his contract so that if this happens again, he is fired immediately with cause.
I would be a little more generous with the players since this wasn't really instigated by them.
For those calling for Beilein, stop dreaming. Martelli is fully capable of coaching the rest of the season.
At this point, do we even know if Harbaugh will be able to survive? If other assistants are as pissed as Gattis, then who's to say they won't bolt as well. There is no new contract and while we all assume it will be done, who's to say that won't be protracted as well. It's kind of open season now.
The one positive is that the pressure to win on Harbaugh will be greater than it's ever been. If the team reverts to a 8-4 mean next year, and/or he can't hold the team together (one of the QBs transfers after the spring), every single one of you that is groveling over him staying right now will be calling for his head, and using this episode as example #1 as to why a change is needed.
This is not a "Bo moment". Heck this isn't even a Brian Kelly moment. This was Harbaugh actively pursuing any NFL job he could get, no matter the fit and circumstances (no evidence of past ties, better situation, more money, more power, or more flexibility), to the point where he flew out for what appeared to be a final interview on national signing day.
Call me old fashioned, but I would have fired him for getting on the plane. By not doing so, Warde is surrendering to Harbaugh and tacitly admitting that Harbaugh is bigger than the program. I wonder if the situation would have been different if the school itself wasn't distracted by scandal as they are now. Whether he likes it or not, he is also tarnishing the legacy of Bo and the culture built up over DECADES. The only way this can be even remotely justifiable is if the winning continues. And by winning, I mean progress from this year and not a Brian Kelly like situation at ND.
If this were to happen at my workplace, and I didn't have the authority to fire him for getting on the plane, here's what I would do. I would re-negotiate the contract with the buyout for Michigan at or near zero. I would be able to live with Harbaugh's buyout being at or near zero too. I would then immediately put feelers out to the best up-and-coming coaches in the country, such as Aranda, and check in with them from time to time. I would reach out to Mike Hart in secret and tell him to provide constant updates on what's going on within the program, as well as telling him that he would be a candidate if Harbaugh were to leave or be fired. I would reach out to the best players (JJ, Edwards) and potential leaders (Bell) and assure them that a top coach would be coming in if Harbaugh were to ever leave / be fired. I would then spread the information about feelers to other top coaches to the media and in the recruiting world, basically telling recruits that Harbaugh is the floor, not the ceiling. Basically do to Harbaugh what he did to the team, the AD, the school, the alumni, and the fans. He did do well under immense pressure this year, so here's to hoping that he can pull it off again. If he fails, then Plan B should be implemented as early as next year.
I will remember him as coming extremely close in the first couple of years, followed by a slow death by a thousand cuts decline in recruiting and on the field, followed by a final resurrection year that came too late.
He didn't work wonders. What has been forgotten is that he inherited a solid group of players except a QB from Hoke, who turned out to be an excellent recruiter but incompetent coach. A slightly better coach would have gotten the 2016 team over the line and into the CFP. That would have created the momentum for Harbaugh to land an Andrew Luck type QB like Trevor Lawrence to make this an elite team. That never happened.
Just goes to show you that first impressions and what you do initially really matter in college football, and in life.
If he stays, this saga will be used against him and the program in recruiting for years to come (as if we didn't have enough built-in disadvantages there already with NIL and admissions). If Mike Hart is the heir apparent, elevate him to OC, and let Gattis to go Miami or another comparable school. If Gattis the heir apparent, then start preparing for that.
I wouldn't just let this go. The only way this doesn't get used against him and the program is if the holdout resulted in something tangible with NIL and the transfer portal, but there are no indications of that.
I would say the former, as we would have heard about a NIL program if there was one. To say that NIL didn't impact the Nolan recruitment is like saying there was no NIL when it was under the table. He ended up at A&M.
If he can't tap the portal except for grad transfers or players from like minded or better schools, and if he has to bring in players who play school, then the NIL has to not only be top 5, but top 1-2 to make up for what AL and GA are doing. Keep in mind, A&M, Texas, OSU, LSU, Oregon etc all want to win too.
The more I think about it, the more I get the feeling that this is real. Even if he doesn't leave this year, he will leave in the not too distant future unless there is a clear NIL plan. The gap is only going to grow wider without elite NIL to make up for all the other things we can't do but AL and GA can. If the playoffs expand to 8 or 12, getting there will be easier and we'll in all likelihood only have to be the second best team in the BIG. However, even if you consistently get there, getting thumped by AL/GA every time can wear on you.
As much as we don't like each other, ND is in a very similar situation. While we can laugh at Kelly for leaving, he does have a legitimate point about not being able to win a national championship at ND. They (along with MSU and PSU) are trying to overcome shortcomings with elite recruiters as HCs, but that can only take you so fair. In the world of NIL money talks, and you can't blame these players for wanting their fair share.
I have an insider source at ND (6th generation, entire family went there), and this doesn't surprise me. Apparently, the one thing that kept Kelly at ND was winning. A lot of boosters were pissed that he openly came out as pro-choice (not necessarily the belief, but being open about it). The school administrators didn't like how he was bending academic rules, and he was pissed about annual academic leaks at inopportune times about key players. It wasn't a good fit but the winning held everything together. The common belief was that he was going to the NFL.
Given all that, I'm surprised they are going after Kingsbury. He doesn't check the boxes with what the boosters and academic administrators want, which is a combination of winning, playing school, and being a practicing Catholic. It reminds me a lot of RichRod. Fickell would be a good fit for them and I can see that working really well but they are most likely going to have to wait for him.
I don't know about Georgia beating Bama. Saban has an uncanny ability to scheme against former assistants. Their offensive line is leaky (7 sacks to Auburn yesterday) and they don't have a lot of playmakers apart from Bryce Young but their defense is still good. Also, Georgia's QB Bennett is basically a zero star (though they have JT Daniels as a backup). They haven't seen a Saban-like defense since week 1, when they managed just one FG (their only score was a pick 6). So I can see a defensive struggle, but Saban has the edge in terms of experience.
Oregon, PSU and Nebraska all slowed down this offense. Stroud gets rattled with pressure and he looks lost when he has to scramble. PSU has a legit secondary that we don't have and Oregon was early in the year. I would focus on the Nebraska game, where they were able to flush him out of the pocket and force bad reads/throws, including two picks that were all on Stroud. He still doesn't do well when a play breaks down and he has to improvise. The front four and the LBs will need to have the game of their lives because our secondary obviously can't hold up and our offense wouldn't be able to keep up in a shootout. I suspect they will come out and try to run the ball a little bit to soften up the coverage, so the LB play will be key. If they can run the ball, then I don't see any way we stop them.
I'm not a fan of 12 or 16, even if there are guarantees for G5 schools for parity and byes for top teams. That means we could go 10-2 this year, lose to our rivals with a lot of other close wins, and be in. That diminishes the value and stakes of regular season games. And it effectively allows Harbaugh to claim a successful season no matter what. He can lose to both rivals each year and still say the season was a success because he made the playoff.
Purdue is potentially a bad matchup for Sparty given Purdue's passing offense and will be an interesting test given their high from this week and the fact that they're on the road. I think they will be fine because Mel Tucker will have them prepared, but I wouldn't overlook that game. Purdue has done this before and Sparty's pass defense has been consistently poor.
A very important barometer for me will be the PSU game. They were competitive today against OSU for most of that game, even though Clifford probably isn't at 100%, they still can't run the ball at all, and Franklin is most likely poking around. Point being, a flawed team put up a good effort against OSU today, so OSU is not this invincible team. Oregon is a flawed team as well and they found a way to win even though OSU put up over 600 yards against them.
A 9-3 record with losses to MSU, PSU, and OSU (most likely by a lot), would have me wondering what else we have to lose. However, a win at PSU, coupled with a competitive game against OSU, would go a long way to take the sting out of this loss and move forward with Harbaugh and this staff.
We need to be realistic and not get emotional. If we end up on the market for a HC, we will be viewed as a third choice behind the LSU and USC jobs. If Franklin bolts, I'm not sold that we would be viewed as a better job that PSU (their fanbase is pretty demanding as well but they aren't cursed in rivalry games like we are). I'm also not sold that Fickell will take the job if offered given his OSU ties, and keep in mind he may be a prime target for the PSU job if Franklin leaves, and taking that job wouldn't burn the bridges he would burn if he took our job. So for those of you calling for a change, you need to be ready for Matt Campbell or Pat Fitzgerald as your HC next year.
Maybe better coaching would have resulted in a win today, but the deeper issue is lack of overall elite talent. If Bama or Georgia were out there today, MSU with the way they play loses by at least 20. They would just man up the LOS, stop Walker, and then get to the QB on pass rushes even if the WRs are open (which against good secondaries, I'm not convinced they will be). Then they'll run the ball and dink and dunk their way into a comfortable 35-7 style victory. We saw flashes of the better talent today, but not enough of it.
I tend to agree that every time there is a dogfight, Harbaugh teams crumble. The recruiting is a bigger issue IMO. We can't be an underdog or program building type program because we've never been that in our hisotry. We have to be a Bama or Georgia or OSU like team that accumulates talent and uses it on gamedays. Right now, there's a clear talent gap between playoff teams and us, and it results in these games where we get snakebitten. I just wonder who else you can bring in here that can do better with that.
The deep balls were clearly inaccurate, but it looked as if the bigger problem was the WRs not getting open. Maybe others were open but Cade didn't see them.
Yet his name has already popped up as a favorite. I actually don't think Kiffin will leave. He gets to use this pedestal to give the finger to the rest of the SEC with no real pressure to win.
If they could bring Joe Brady back as OC with Mel Tucker as the HC I could see that working.
This is spot on. I'll add that Clemson is basically running a college "we have better athletes than you do" offense that relies on having stars in each position (look at it now when they don't). So it was easier for Trevor Lawrence to transition into that scheme. If JJ is far along with the playbook, we would be seeing more than read-options and one-read deep balls. My guess is that he's not even close with the complex playbook and will need at least an offseason to learn it and execute it with game speed. Right now, he's a change up like Peppers but with the ability to hit a one-read deep ball.
There aren't better options than Cade right now so instead of criticizing let's hope he uses the bye to improve his consistency.
Excellent game plan, offense could have done more if Cade hits the intermediate throws. Defense playing to strengths. Team came prepared and did not play scared. There will be more tests, but this performance had to instill a lot of confidence in the players about gameplan and execution.
Rutgers never has, nor will they in the future, land the top players from NJ. In the old days, those players were picked up by PSU and ND. Now, all the top national programs outside the West Coast go after those guys.
Where they have opportunity is with the players a rank down (think high 3 star; low 4 star guys). Rutgers has been losing those players to mid-level ACC and B10 teams (think BC and Iowa type programs). The pandemic actually gives them an advantage because these players may want to stay closer to home, and they can't freely travel to visit other schools like they used to. Schiano was able to turn a number of under the radar guys into NFL prospects his first go around, and he will need to do that again to convince these types of players to stay. It's doable, though. Very similar dynamic at Maryland.
The Alliance will only work if there are big match-ups on a consistent basis. With everyone from Generation X onwards cutting the cord, we are headed towards pay-per-view and small package streaming, which means the big match-ups will get the most buys and views and carry everyone else. You already see that with international soccer. The only way to keep up with the big SEC match-ups is to match them with big Alliance match-ups. As long as the big Alliance match-ups are good, I think the top Alliance teams can still get a portion of the top players that want to play school and get paid decent NIL. This means we need to consistently be playing the likes of USC and ND, while Rutgers keeps playing BC and Oregon St. In turn, it means that Alliance match-up revenue sharing cannot be equal and the top teams need to get a significant cut (perhaps even more than 50%), so they can keep up with the top SEC teams.
There really isn't an alternative, is there. If the BIG raids part of the PAC and/or ACC, it's pretty much out-SECing the SEC. I don't think you want to get into that cycle. The expanded league would also look like a mess geographically. The Alliance is more democratic but in the end it works for us as long as what I said above ends up reflected in the contracts.
For all you anti-vaxxers out there, if you refuse to get the vaccine, are you willing to undertake to everyone else that you are wearing N95 masks indoors, that you are taking precautions to avoid getting it. Of course not. See, the problem with anti-vaxxers is that they throw a lot of stuff on the wall, when when they really want is for society to barrel towards herd immunity. They want you to accept the risk, go live normal lives, get it, and then live and let live. The vaccine is an impediment because people getting it means that there is risk and that society should take measures against it.
Here's an interesting WSJ article about how US growth is projected to surpass China's growth in the next 5 quarters, something that hasn't happened since 1990 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-likely-to-outgrow-chinas-due-to-contrast-in-pandemic-responses-11629036000). The dirty little secret is that barrelling towards herd immunity does produce better short-term economic results, but it comes at the steep price of loss of life and hospitalizations / medical bills.
It just shows you how selfish our society has become.
Mississippi State had no chance to win the SEC anyways.
USC appears to want to exclude other CA teams, which makes sense if you think about because USC being the only BIG school in CA would give them a recruiting advantage.
I think the presidents would also want Stanford just for the prestige.
If adding Kansas means adding USC, I'm on board with that.
Kansas still adds nothing though and if they are in B12 purgatory I can even see the BIG wanting them only for basketball (similar to ND for hockey).
The only way this would work is if the SEC also raided the ACC, resulting in the ACC disbanding (and therefore the payouts not applying anymore presumably). For example, the BIG takes UVA/UNC/Duke/GA Tech/ND, and the SEC takes Clemson/FSU/Miami/VA Tech. Imagine if the BIG was working with the SEC now to raid the ACC to a point where the payouts wouldn't apply because the ACC would just disband.