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Visited my brother in law…

Visited my brother in law and family last April as he was stationed there for the Navy. Besides the obvious stuff (Tokyo, Kyoto) I would highly rec kamakura which I wished I spent more time at (very chill and laid back).

Other recs (mostly obvious but recced anyway)

Reading: A Geek in Japan,

Beginners Guide…. By Pick Iyer

TV (and book) Tokyo Vice

Movies: Miyazaki films, Rashomon, Lost in Translation 

In Tokyo: going to Sumo practice session (getting there is half if not more of the experience)

 

 

Yeah, I missed that detail…

Yeah, I missed that detail in skimming the article. A second DUI, irrespective of BAC imo, likely warrants dismissal.


 

As someone who treats people…

As someone who treats people with SUD I hope that circumstances will him to have the kinds of second chances my patients usually get, though context and prior history of course should dictate that. 

To the rest of us, reminder 1 gagillion to Uberlyft if you have have more than a couple and don’t have a designated driver 

Eh, I think the true litmus…

Eh, I think the true litmus test would have been if they had won the PSU game or shown some other dead cat bounce sign of life. Put another way, I now have confidence WM wanted to keep his job by doing the bare minimum but still don't have confidence that he will bat above the Mendoza line for an AD in other stuff.

As someone within easy…

As someone within easy driving distance to both Springfield and Providence, I’m wondering if there is any sense of which regional(s) UM might be more/most likely to go to? Seems like a total crapshoot but perhaps because of the host/pairings formula some places are more likely? 

Man I should have known to…

Man I should have known to check my phrasing before posting that. 

Thanks! That’s great advice…

Thanks! That’s great advice. Right now we are troubleshooting our current machine but have indeed been eyeing a home laser.

Top 5 all time beloved…

Top 5 all time beloved Eagles player and author of the most impt play in franchise history. 

Glad he gets to do a farewell season for the team. 

Got me thinking about how many UM players are in a similar pantheon for their franchises 

Brady- Pats

Woodson-Raiders

sure there are others but can’t think of them at the moment. 

I like that fit actually. If…

I like that fit actually. If MM and Schneider are on the same page re: defense first mentality and they need a guy who doesn't make mistakes and can be a playmaker when necessary that would be ideal. 

Denver seems like the the…

Denver seems like the the team that gets him in a plurality of scenarios, though I"m not sure how stable things are there given Payton's first year and the "yikes" vibe given off by the QB prospects when asked about their interview with the Broncos.

 

 

I’m glad I wasn’t the only…

I’m glad I wasn’t the only one trying to figure out wth that came from. 

For a first time HC, the…

For a first time HC, the hiring of an NFL DC who everyone thinks is a short-timer and, in your scenario, wants "his guys"  (dealing a likely blow to 1-2 recruiting cycles and potentially help NIL-based poaching of the roster) sure seems like a big risk to me. 

If this was just with one coach, I could understand, but this has now happened with a couple of critical coaches (Elston, Clinkscale, Herbert) and I think it's totally fair to question at a minimum the process. 

If Moore pulls this out and the team continues to roll then great, and I will be happy to be eat whatever crow I am due. But I don't think its an overreaction to be concerned at this point.

I understand your point (and…

I understand your point (and agree with it) but I still think this is probably not a great post to have on the message board because it's too hard, maybe impossible, to comment on the Iowa offense portion (certainly in bounds here) without considering the comp being used here (definitely out of bounds). 

Here's the one thing about…

Here's the one thing about Warde Manuel that I think is clearly true, and is a clear problem

He does not look proactive at all.

When there is no clear (public) evidence that the UM athletic department is taking this exodus (and NIL) seriously, there are two potential explanations

1) There is a lot going on behind the scenes, major offers were made, and all of the coaching departures were some variant of "wants the NFL/Harbaugh guy/money was insane/got passed over" for which there was nothing UM football could do.

2) Complete and utter inertia, due to some combination of laziness and/or hubris.

The thing is, if it's 1) then there are 1,001 ways to ****ing signal that through the media, focusing on NIL/retention stuff, doing OTR interviews with Sam Webb or whoever to make the fanbase and (more importantly) the team recognize that they are taking this competition as seriously 24/7/365 that the prior coaching staff and players clearly did. 

The fact that there has been 0 evidence that this is NOT 2) is further evidence that WM is not proactive with messaging, which one might reasonably assume is correlated with being proactive in other areas.

 

Congrats to your nephew.

Congrats to your nephew.

Fwiw here are a couple of thoughts based on my somewhat limited experience (never did finance/I-banking/whatever but did a PhD at Wharton and know a lot of people in the field, also advice a bunch of Ivy students on career stuff that includes options in finance.)

1) UM is what I call a if you kick ***, you're an Ivy school (public Ivies and some places like Emory and CMU fit in that grouping for me). What that means is for the brass ringfi rms like Goldman (Sachs),  students who spike at UM are considered with the usual suspects from Harvard, Stanford, etc. There is less room for error for UM students than those other schools in terms of grades, etc.

2) Now there are LOTS of ways to maximize income out of college, but purely focusing on starting salary (or only certain firms/locations) is a mistake imo. For example, focusing only on NYC can in some cases close him off to opportunities in DTW, Chicago, and other places where there is more room for advancement and you have some home field advantage because of extensive UM ties. Also, depending on his level of comfort with risk there are some real tradeoffs between base salary and upside 

3) In any case, I would be laser focused on internships and work with professors who dip their toes in real world work (finance, etc). If your nephew is really hungry he will be able to start building up experience from day 1 which puts him at a comparative advantage. 

4) While it will be impt to be highly focused if his sole goal is to get to a comfortable financial position ASAP, I would encourage him to, for his electives, choose among courses that are the most highly rated ones in terms of professors. I was fortunate to take a couple of courses with Ralph Willams (literature) and Sidney Fine (history) that affected me much more than any of my cores in what was otherwise a science/math heavy course load. 

Finally, I try and strike a balance between recognizing the disparity between what will be his experience and that of many of his classmates who have been much luckier in terms of the resource environments they were born into and making that the sole determinant of who he chooses to hang out with. If he keeps an open mind, he will be able to meet great people who happen to come from wealthy environments as well as avoid those who didn't but are nevertheless not great hangs/a*****s. 

Good luck to him!

 

Was thinking of making the…

Was thinking of making the same post. Barely 1/2 of the way through (this is the Russian novel of Mgopods) but already it’s amazing. 

The single thing I’ve been…

The single thing I’ve been looking for is a sign (any sign, really) of Moore being criticized on or off the record by players or other coaches/staff and have not seen anything to that extent. 

In my experience, Head Coach=Players>>>Other coaches (staff, etc) for making up “culture” 

While it’s true most teams that win a NC don’t have as much visible uncertainty at this point in the offseason, the players apparently love their new HC and are building from an amazing culture as well. I’ll take it and I suspect many recruits not scared off by NIL geared towards back-end compensation will take it as well.

 

Agree on 1 and 2 (had to…

Agree on 1 and 2 (had to miss the second half, which---man)

I haven't looked less forward to a Super Bowl matchup in a very long time. 

That said, Brian Griese is a really good guy and the Niners have Moody and Ronnie Bell so I guess I'll root for the Niners over the meteor. 

 

I understand your point but…

I understand your point but tbh as an Eagles fan who is used to train wreck press conferences with a coach who is definitely not a person of color, I was relieved when comparing Sherrone to Nick S. . 

This^^^.

I'd add that JUB…

This^^^.

I'd add that JUB on a couple of occasions (including the weird anti-Naurato "sources say" stuff) has seemed to be parroting someone else's talking points. 

Wrt JH- good for him. I hope he wins a SB with the Chargers and that he can maintain the kind of ties with UM that the Ravens have had with it. As long as Sherrone is coach I think that this can be possible. 

As for the team, hopefully that family, to paraphrase Tolstoy, will stay happy in the same way they have been.

Let OSU and their Bob Sugar clone coach spend gagilions on trying to buy culture/talent to try and beat UM. Imo that's a fools errand. Ramzy noted in his NYT op-ed a while back that OSU wants to be UM but they can't, and no amount of money will change that. 

I figured this was going on…

I only hope that this negotiation ends soon, one way or the other. 

You clearly are not an…

You clearly are not an Eagles fan. 

I'm glad to hear it is still…

I'm glad to hear it is still nice!

My grandparents sold their place as they got up in years and I haven't been back in 20 years or so.  

In a way it (and I think Michigan summers in general) spoiled me because I became used to fresh water which is so much nicer than salt water imo.

Yeah I agree. 

Less light…

Yeah I agree. 

Less light and more moisture I think are the main reasons I find the weather here worse during the winter. Also, outside of some nice shoulder season spells, I find the summers to be pretty swampy. 

 

I was an east coaster …

I was an east coaster (suburban Philly) who spent all his summers on a lake near Ludington, which was a gorgeous area if a bit far from most major cities.

My wife went to camp and HS at Interlochen Academy a bit farther north and she looooooved it. 

I live in Boston now and have been thinking the same things you are, although inertia can be tricky to overcome. 

Thanks for posting!

One…

Thanks for posting!

One thing that made me laugh; the chyron on the BTN feed saying that the regularly scheduled OSU/ND hockey game had been bumped until the end of the ceremony. I was imagining those fanbases, many of whom have no doubt been trying to avoid college sports since Monday turning on the tv and tuning into THAT  

I get what you’re saying,…

I get what you’re saying, but I really don’t think JH has a handshake agreement with an NFL team at this point or it would be reported by now. As such, I’d really doubt he would signal he’s leaving. Not to say he won’t, just that he isn’t in a position right now to do so. 

This is great. Thanks for…

This is great. Thanks for the public service. 

FYI the OSX version(s) of the bit torrent software won't get past the current Apple firewalls (I'm using Ventura 13.6.1). I tried a couple of things to no avail. The devs mentioned that the Mac version is a mess as they don't have a dev community working on it so I'll try a couple of other options. 

God I love Vegas. I trust…

God I love Vegas. I trust JUB but I reallllllly trust folks who have money at stake. 

Obvs choice to go for him as…

Obvs choice to go for him as he will likely be the top non-QB off the board.

Am a bit surprised that a lot of OSU players are staying. 

Given what we've learned about that teams culture under RD these choices remind me of the scene at the end of Jerry Maguire when Bob Sugar tries to hug his client the same way Jerry and Rod did, eliciting a "get away from me" shove.

https://youtu.be/vfUhVZisvMw…

https://youtu.be/vfUhVZisvMw?si=lmZlimUSRpayT35U&t=33

Yeah, same vibe I have,…

Yeah, same vibe I have, which is part of the reason I made the journey here with my oldest. After tonight things will go on but be different. 

Going with my son (flights…

Going with my son (flights willing).

 

In favor of us going

Me

-Student from 91-95 (2-1-1 vs OSU and ND, 1-1 vs UW in the Rose Bowl)

-7-1 in games attended since (1-1 bowl games, 2004 Rose and 2011 Sugar)

Son

-He started following UMfb in 2021, and is 2-0 in person

 

In favor of us not going

-Have not yet been cured of BPONE (in remission, but still in window for recurrence)

-TCU did not baptize him with UM fandom and I'm worried he's due

 

This is great info, thanks…

This is great info, thanks for sharing it! 

I wanted to update folks who…

I wanted to update folks who might be affected by the winter storm coming through what appears to be much of the eastern US tonight. Specifically I wanted to share a couple things I learned from a very helpful Delta agent about flights through the next 48 hours as well as tracking these things in general.

If you're one of the lucky folks who are going out today and aren't impacted, save me a seat at the bar in Houston...

For the rest of us:

General stuff I learned

----The airlines are always last to make decisions so it makes sense to gather addl information (see below) when deciding whether to sit tight or audible plans. 

----While I am sure most of you know of the flightaware.com website that tracks flights and (very helpfully) inbound equipment, the agent introduced me to https://nasstatus.faa.gov which has not only current airport status but also planned and/or possible closures, etc for all major airports 

---The agent mentioned that checking the FAA site mid-afternoon is probably the best time to get a sense of where things are headed, even before the official comms come out to fliers and media outlets.

Specific stuff (mostly for us Northeasterners)

The bad news (for people in my situation):

----most everything out of BOS, JFK, LGA, and NWK both direct to Texas cities and connecting through Delta hubs is sold out. I didn't bother checking all other airlines but a quick expedia search showed only availability for flights out so late tonight that they likely could be impacted by the storm just as much as those tomorrow.

The good news: 

----the game is on Monday, and apparently most airline agents are either CFB fans or are married to one.

The former point matters because things are supposed to die down towards the end of tomorrow, giving a window on the back end of Sunday to start clearing the gates and getting planes and crews where they need to go. 

The latter point matters because I was told a few times that, given my son's and my circumstances , agents would use every tool at their disposal (including booking on other airlines) to get us to the game. I can only speak for my experience with Delta and as someone with some status there, but my sense was that their willingness to go "all in" on getting us to the game had more to do with general empathetic recognition of the importance/rarity of the situation. 

(For those wondering why I didn't make my flight out earlier, it was a combination of not having info at the time along with the fact that one of my friends from freshman year at Markley (who walked to my first UM game with me and my hallmates, making this somewhat ironic) is having her 50th birthday party up here tonight that I didn't want to miss.

Hope this helps, and that for those traveling you all make it safely to the game!

 

This is a great, and…

This is a great, and heartening, write up. I’ll look forward to reading up more and catching more of their games (after Monday night…)

Well it's certainly written…

Well it's certainly written like the 23 political fundraising texts I get daily. 

Two possible explanations…

Two possible explanations off the top of my head:

1) The human mind is not rational, no matter what neo-classical economists might try and make you believe. 

example: When you drop a ton of coin on a game, part of coping for many is chasing deals in the hopes that the feeling of being penny-wise can overcome pound foolishness

2) The human mind IS rational, and all of those psychologist clowns don't know what they are talking about 

example: you have spent your whole life eating at Olive Gardens, saving up for premium experiences like the NCG which is how you can afford to drop said coin on this game. But you believe that NCG tickets are a scarce resource while food is....food. As such, you do what you always do

Great write up, Seth. As…

Great write up, Seth. As someone who always loved game theory in econ grad school, I'm very interested in it beyond my interest in going.

A couple of things I noted as well that I think may impact people's preferences/decisions

1) Flights were actually much less for me than I expected, and actually tipped me over into the "let's try and do this" camp. This I think is due to two factors: my origin (Boston) wasn't DTW and that Texas is somewhat unique in that you have 2 large airports in IAH and San Antonio along with Austin to form a triangle that handle a ton of spillover traffic within a reasonable drive from each other, not to mention DFW which is still within reasonable range imo. 

2) For the same reasons (I think), I have found lodging and transportation (rental car etc) to be pretty reasonable as well.

Finally, I think that there is/will be a fair number of people seeking to leverage their package tickets to "trade up" to better seats in the lower bowl, or at least more (in a shorter period of time) than the Rose Bowl.  I would guess that they would likely hold out until around the time of their flight or later to get what they can, which I suspect will have a modest impact on the "in the door" and "I can actually read the players numbers" seats in opposite directions.

 

 

 

It's a bit up in the air…

It's a bit up in the air. Our flight as it stands leaves Austin early on Tuesday so I'm leaning towards a long night on Monday back to Austin. 

As for when we head to Houston, there's a snow storm heading to us in Boston which also could impact us.

That said, if you just need a ride there and back I'm happy to help.

So I am flying in to Austin…

So I am flying in to Austin on Sunday with my 11 yo son and am undecided between heading to Houston Sunday vs Monday (flying out Tuesday from Austin as well). 

If anyone wants to share a ride let me know as I have room for 2-3 in the SUV I rented.

Thanks for doing the ticket watch thing tomorrow, Seth. I have been holding out and need some guidance. Hope to run into you at the game!

 

 

Like almost everyone else,…

Like almost everyone else, need 2 tix for the game. Happy to pay market price (minus fees) and happy to throw in some mental health consultation curbsides to boot (which may be helpful depending on the outcome of the game!)

niels underscore rosenquist at hms dot harvard dot edu 

Update: you can also SMS me at Six One Seven Nine Zero One Four Zero Eight Nine

Man, you left everything on…

Man, you left everything on the field with this one Brian.

Bravo. 

Thanks for posting this, I…

Thanks for posting this, I've been on the fence about going with my 11 yo son from Boston.

One thing I noticed is that the package deals through the alumni association make it "almost" cost-effective to use them. For example, a 2 night hotel and transfer package for my son (who is under 12 so is a "child") and I would run about $3,500, including our tickets (which you have to add at $475 a piece). While we would still have to deal with getting there, and could save a lot by staying far outside of town, at least the $$ shelled out would be put towards a much more convenient lodging option (etc) and to some extent the alumni association instead of scalpers.

Of note, you do have to be an UM alum assn member to be eligible. 

I think they are less…

I think they are less meaningful, but….

1) For many programs that have no NY6 expectations the second tier games have been (and always will be imo) a meaningful thing. Unless players on the rosters are sure fire day 1/2 picks or (more likely but still not entirely common) have gone thru the portal, the bowl gives them an opportunity to show off for scouts. 
 

2) The playoff game(s) create really meaningful games, which I realize won’t be bowl games for the first four games but for the remaining 7 they will be very impt every year as part of the playoffs (though with only 1 week in between them I’m not sure how that will effect package tours, etc. Players may not opt out because it might look bad for their draft status 

3) With the lower tier bowls being what they are and the top 7 being as impt if not more every year, I could see the “mid” bowls suffering (Outback, etc) for teams that miss out on the 12 team playoffs and as such are disappointments for fans and players alike. 
 

 

This made me think of…

This made me think of Christine (I was in some pre-med stuff with her as well) and remember her as being a really nice person. I hope she and the family have the support that they will need. RIP

This^^^^. Posting with my…

This^^^^. Posting with my name (well at least with part of it) is a check for myself and keeps places like this closer to IRL, which is what the human mind (and I would argue society) has evolved to operate in.

I am a psychiatrist and given my line of work such an approach carries some addl risk (not here really but in some other settings) but I do feel strongly it’s the right thing for me. 

I respect people’s right to privacy on sites where anonymous user names are allowed, but I have significantly more respect for people who put views out there (esp ones that go against the grain on this site) with their real name attached. 
 

 

This is great. My kids will…

This is great. My kids will be excited to pick stuff out from the wish list. 

How have I missed that all…

How have I missed that all these years? That is amazing. RIP NMcD

Saw it today and liked it. 

Saw it today and liked it. 
 

One thing that an ESPN exec I know mentioned to me that I think might be relevant to the decision to use footage only: apparently it has become very hard to do these documentaries independently from the athletes, who now want to have co-producing credit or even shared revenue through their own production companies. One way to avoid that is to do what was done here, though I don’t know for a fact that is why it ended up that way.