Your multiplication of probabilities incorrectly assumes each game is independent of the others, which isn't true. In reality, the games are correlated with each other.
An example relevant to election day. Let's say the Dems have a 15% chance to win the house and 50% chance to win the Senate. These aren't independent. If the Dems with the House, they have a >99% chance to win the Senate, not 50%.
Understood completely. Which is why I stressed the long-term consistency of the problem. We have had a ~20% lead over OSU and ~75% lead over GT for at least the last 10 rolls. Yet, we have not been able to separate ourselves. Seems like more than bad luck.
That doesn't hold your star power down. Star power is based on a median calculation. The calculation is described here: https://collegefootballrisk.com/help
Bottome line, if you keep voting your star power will go up despite lack of reddit awards.
I'm having trouble understanding how we're only tied for first place in this game when we have had a Substantial lead in star power over the other contenders for many consecutive turns.
We've had about a ~20% star power lead over OSU and ~75% lead over Georgia Tech. If we've had such a consistent lead in star power over several turns, why haven't we been able to build a solid lead in number of territories. Is our fundamental strategy inferior to our opponents? Are the territories in Florida (held by GT) easier to hold because they have less neighbors?
Great analysis. Just pointing out that while we're behind Penn State in the standings, they've played 2 more games than us. Michigan still controls their destiny in terms of a Big10 championship.
Michigan Physics major and Caltech Physics PhD here.
Physics degree -- very math centered, must love math
Astronomy - very similar to physics degree
Career options with physics/astronomy PhD
- academia (very hard to get a professor position, postdoc easy to get but doesn't pay well)
- national lab (slightly less hard)
- Industry (research)
Physics/astronomy PhD grads from top universities will easily have several industry job offers in the low 6 figures. I currently work for the Center for Naval Analyses in Washington DC.
Thanks everyone for the kind words. I really am not an expert pumpkin carver. This is the first time I attempted anything like this. It's really not that hard. Follow the instructions in this article.
The key is to find the picture you want to carve, convert it to greyscale (with no isolated black regions) (you may want to play with the contrast and brightness), carve out completely the whitest regions, leave completely intact the blackest regions, and in the grey regions take off the skin of the pumpkin with an exact knife and partially scrape away the shell of the pumpkin. This gives your pumpkin the greyscale effect when lit.
Here's an amazing number. Michigan is a combined 13-0 against the other WCWS teams over the past 2 years.
3-0 against Alabama last year. 2-0 against florida state last year and 2-0 this year. 2-0 against Georgia last year. 1-0 against UCLA last year and 1-0 this year. 1-0 against LSU last year. 1-0 against Oklahoma this year.
Sara Driesenga isn't the first wolverine pitcher drafted since Jordan Taylor in 2011. Haylie Wagner was drafted by the Pennsylvania Rebellion last season.
The key thing to keep in mind is that they 'subtract' the signals from the two orthogonal 'arms' of the detector. Seismic shaking is certainly larger than 10^(-18)m, but it will effect both arms the same, and subtracting gets rid of it. On the other hand, the relatively puny gravitational wave displacements will effect the two arms in opposite ways, thus being detectable.
As far as I understand, what ends up limiting LIGO's performance is the thermal vibrations of the last few atomic layers of the mirrors - a crazy, but common, limitation in this field.
Again, I was not on the LIGO team, just in the same field. One of the LIGO big-wigs was on my defense committee though.
I got my PhD in Physics in the same field of research as LIGO just 1 month ago.
Your question is very important. To answer it, one would have to explain the fundamentals of gravity waves. Gravity are essentially fluctuations of the fabric of space, that is, actual fluctuations of the distances between objects. These waves have a unique shape as they travel through space. That is, if you're looking at the x-y plane, say, a passing gravity wave will shrink spatial dimensions in the x-direction and expand spatial dimensions in the y-direction. This is very unique. A seismic wave, or slamming a car door in the parking lot, will not do this.
This dictates how LIGO detectors are made. They consist of two detectors orientated orthogonally to each other. You only consider a vibration event a "detection" if expansion of one arm is correlated precisely with compression in the other arm.
Moreover, from theory, we know what frequencies and amplitudes to expect for a gravitatoinal wave source. Moreover still, "detections" were observed simulatneously in Washington and Louisiana, further boosting everyone's confidence.
Lastly, I'd like everyone to appreciate the technical feat that LIGO just accomplished. LIGO measures the distance between mirrors spaced 4 km apart. In order to detect gravity waves, LIGO must be able to discern if one of those mirrors moves relative to the other by 10^(-18) m. That is 1/1000th of a proton radius. The interatomic spacing of atoms in a typical solid is 10^(-10) meters. LIGO had to be able to detect motion almost 1 billion times smaller than that. It is truly an astounding scientific achievement.
I am defending my PhD thesis tomorrow at Caltech, and one of the professors on the committee is a big-wig at LIGO. I will ask him to confirm or deny, but I doubt he will.
Thanks again for all these videos! One comment, I don't see the 1994 notre dame game replay on your playist. That's the one I was most looking forward to.
I've lived in Pasadena for the last five years. It's a great place to live, if a little expensive. It's a little like a more urban Ann Arbor. Lot's of artsy, hipstery, upper middle class things to do. Lots of nice bars and nice ethnic/multicultural restaurants.
I thought Driesenga was supposed to be back from injury a while ago. Any chance that coach Hutch is intentionally holding her out in order to apply for a medical redshirt? That way we'd have two aces next year: Betsa and Driesenga.
I thought Driesenga was supposed to be back from injury a while ago. Any chance that coach Hutch is intentionally holding her out in order to apply for a medical redshirt? That way we'd have two aces next year: Betsa and Driesenga.
Recent Comments
Rgr. Thanks. That makes sense.
Apparently they didn't update some of the promotional material, like on their twitter page:
https://twitter.com/CFBRisk
Can someone explain why there's only 5 turns left?
We're on turn 40.
According to rules there are supposed to be 50 total turns.
That would suggest there are 10 turns left. What am I missing?
Your multiplication of probabilities incorrectly assumes each game is independent of the others, which isn't true. In reality, the games are correlated with each other.
An example relevant to election day. Let's say the Dems have a 15% chance to win the house and 50% chance to win the Senate. These aren't independent. If the Dems with the House, they have a >99% chance to win the Senate, not 50%.
Similar correlations exist in the games above.
Audio is here. Go to the 6hrs 19mins 45 secs mark.
https://mgoblue.com/watch/?Archive=29698&type=Archive
Understood completely. Which is why I stressed the long-term consistency of the problem. We have had a ~20% lead over OSU and ~75% lead over GT for at least the last 10 rolls. Yet, we have not been able to separate ourselves. Seems like more than bad luck.
That doesn't hold your star power down. Star power is based on a median calculation. The calculation is described here:
https://collegefootballrisk.com/help
Bottome line, if you keep voting your star power will go up despite lack of reddit awards.
I'm having trouble understanding how we're only tied for first place in this game when we have had a Substantial lead in star power over the other contenders for many consecutive turns.
We've had about a ~20% star power lead over OSU and ~75% lead over Georgia Tech. If we've had such a consistent lead in star power over several turns, why haven't we been able to build a solid lead in number of territories. Is our fundamental strategy inferior to our opponents? Are the territories in Florida (held by GT) easier to hold because they have less neighbors?
Great analysis. Just pointing out that while we're behind Penn State in the standings, they've played 2 more games than us. Michigan still controls their destiny in terms of a Big10 championship.
Agreed. I've had it for two years and it works great. I love this mower. Battery is still going strong.
I wouldn't say Jaden McDaniels is off the board completely. He has not, and likely will not, sign a LOI.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/federal-way-star-jaden-mcdaniels-breaks-silence-announces-commitment-to-washington/
https…
He transferred to SMU
https://247sports.com/college/smu/Article/Zach-Abercrumbia-SMU-Rice-football-graduate-transfer--132090734/
Not involved, but my PhD research did involve laser physics.
What do you call a cow that just gave birth?
De-calf-einated
What do you call a cow with two legs?
Lean Beef
We own New York City, San Francisco, and DC! Nice.
Also interesting to note that Rutgers and Maryland are only the 5th and 12th weirdest teams for their conference geographically.
According to USCHO, we currently win the comparison with Penn State.
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/grid/#Michigan
Get a credit card like Chase Sapphire Preferred with no foreign transaction fee and pay for almost everything with the credit card.
Michigan Physics major and Caltech Physics PhD here.
Physics degree -- very math centered, must love math
Astronomy - very similar to physics degree
Career options with physics/astronomy PhD
- academia (very hard to get a professor position, postdoc easy to get but doesn't pay well)
- national lab (slightly less hard)
- Industry (research)
Physics/astronomy PhD grads from top universities will easily have several industry job offers in the low 6 figures. I currently work for the Center for Naval Analyses in Washington DC.
Follow the directions on this website.
Thanks everyone for the kind words. I really am not an expert pumpkin carver. This is the first time I attempted anything like this. It's really not that hard. Follow the instructions in this article.
http://www.seriouseats.com/2013/10/how-to-carve-any-photograph-into-a-p…
The key is to find the picture you want to carve, convert it to greyscale (with no isolated black regions) (you may want to play with the contrast and brightness), carve out completely the whitest regions, leave completely intact the blackest regions, and in the grey regions take off the skin of the pumpkin with an exact knife and partially scrape away the shell of the pumpkin. This gives your pumpkin the greyscale effect when lit.
Here's an amazing number. Michigan is a combined 13-0 against the other WCWS teams over the past 2 years.
3-0 against Alabama last year. 2-0 against florida state last year and 2-0 this year. 2-0 against Georgia last year. 1-0 against UCLA last year and 1-0 this year. 1-0 against LSU last year. 1-0 against Oklahoma this year.
It really is mind-blowing.
The key thing to keep in mind is that they 'subtract' the signals from the two orthogonal 'arms' of the detector. Seismic shaking is certainly larger than 10^(-18)m, but it will effect both arms the same, and subtracting gets rid of it. On the other hand, the relatively puny gravitational wave displacements will effect the two arms in opposite ways, thus being detectable.
As far as I understand, what ends up limiting LIGO's performance is the thermal vibrations of the last few atomic layers of the mirrors - a crazy, but common, limitation in this field.
Again, I was not on the LIGO team, just in the same field. One of the LIGO big-wigs was on my defense committee though.
I got my PhD in Physics in the same field of research as LIGO just 1 month ago.
Your question is very important. To answer it, one would have to explain the fundamentals of gravity waves. Gravity are essentially fluctuations of the fabric of space, that is, actual fluctuations of the distances between objects. These waves have a unique shape as they travel through space. That is, if you're looking at the x-y plane, say, a passing gravity wave will shrink spatial dimensions in the x-direction and expand spatial dimensions in the y-direction. This is very unique. A seismic wave, or slamming a car door in the parking lot, will not do this.
This dictates how LIGO detectors are made. They consist of two detectors orientated orthogonally to each other. You only consider a vibration event a "detection" if expansion of one arm is correlated precisely with compression in the other arm.
Moreover, from theory, we know what frequencies and amplitudes to expect for a gravitatoinal wave source. Moreover still, "detections" were observed simulatneously in Washington and Louisiana, further boosting everyone's confidence.
Lastly, I'd like everyone to appreciate the technical feat that LIGO just accomplished. LIGO measures the distance between mirrors spaced 4 km apart. In order to detect gravity waves, LIGO must be able to discern if one of those mirrors moves relative to the other by 10^(-18) m. That is 1/1000th of a proton radius. The interatomic spacing of atoms in a typical solid is 10^(-10) meters. LIGO had to be able to detect motion almost 1 billion times smaller than that. It is truly an astounding scientific achievement.
Yeah, I'll share what I can, but, again, I doubt he'll give up any truly tasty details.
I am defending my PhD thesis tomorrow at Caltech, and one of the professors on the committee is a big-wig at LIGO. I will ask him to confirm or deny, but I doubt he will.
I read as "Tom Harmon", was confused.
This feels like the hockey equivalent of the Rich Rod football team in 2010.
That's $15.36 milllion per year. That's even larger than the rumored offer texas got from under armour ($15 millioin per year).
http://www.burntorangenation.com/2015/5/28/8677001/texas-longhorns-appa…
According to this mlive article, Coach Hutch has said there's a chance that Driesenga will take a medical redshirt.
I am Ph.D. physicist at Caltech. This is absolutely the correct response.
Hagelin saves senior night!
https://youtu.be/Fju