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|1 week 2 days ago||I was responding to your suggestion||
that the ""bestest coaches would have championships." I did not agree with that.
Now you seem to make a very different argument---ie, that the best coaches have the highest win pct. Fair enough. Of course, there are coaches on this list who "bought" their wins by sacrificing principles---turning a blind eye to booster payments, drug use, crime....some of their players even graduated to murder.
Bo did not do that. So, I think he ranks above some of the coaches on your list. He developed young men---in fact, men like Jim Harbaugh,
Incidentally, if we want to consider just win pct, as depicted in your chart, Harbaugh was one of the four winningest coaches in modern NFL history: only Lombardi, Allen, and Madden were better. On your chart, Saban is at the top in your list but at the highest level of competition, he did not even have a winning record.
Saban, I think, is still one of the best coaches. My only point is that we need to consider in a lot more in judging what coach is best.
|1 week 2 days ago||In a sense, they were arguing against their own prior analysis||
As I recall, their previous analysis gave Super Bowls about 100x the weight of a regular season game. Ironically, that is how some people view success.
Their present analysis gives us another perspective. I agree that it short changes coaches like Belichick. But it does avoid the mistake of valuing a championship above all else.
For example, it would have been unreasonable to expect that from JH's 49ers, when they had not even reached the playoffs in nearly a decade. (The same would be true for JH's college stints. It would have been unreasonable to expect a national title from any coach at San Diego or Stanford --which never won an AP national title---and whose last arguable claim to a title was more than thee quarters of a century ago).
|1 week 2 days ago||You would probably agree that Bo was one of the best ever||
Yet he never won a national title.
|1 week 2 days ago||Could a similar method be used to rank college coaches?||
I would love to see a broader analysis done to compare college head coaches. How much did they contribute to their team's success, after accounting for the talent they had coming in--as well as what they started with?* Harbaugh would probably also rate very highly in this college ranking. He was unbelievably successful with minimally rated recruits at San Diego and Stanford--teams that, like the 49ers, had not won anything in ages.
*It might be trickier to also account for a coach's impact on player development, but that might be done with a time series model that looks at successive stages of players' records from freshman to senior years.
|1 week 2 days ago||Harbaugh, Belichick and Brady||
With a 49ers team that had not even reached the playoffs in nearly a decade, Harbaugh took his team to the NFC title game in 3 consecutive years. (As an assistant also, he coached Rich Gannon to an NFL MVP and SB appearance). Granted, he did not win the SB he reached—because his brother did---but he only coached 4 years.
By contrast, Belichick was an NFL HC for his first 6 seasons without any more than one playoff appearance (which his team lost in the first round). He did not win a SB until Brady became starting QB.
To be sure, Belichick is a brilliant coach---maybe the best NFL coach of all time. But to win a record 5 SBs, you also need the greatest QB of all time. And that is Brady.
|3 weeks 1 day ago||UM #1 in Super Bowl MVPs||
UM #1 in Super Bowl MVPs and could get another next week
|3 weeks 5 days ago||Bagmen in the south||
The video below shows a truly astonishing interview with a journalist that studied bagmen IN THE SOUTH. While he does not directly address the OP's question,
He estimates that there, the percent of players payed by bagmen is
100% for 5*s,
80% for 4*s
These shockingly extreme estimates may reflect the journalist's overconfidence. But they do suggest why, if you go to a school in the south and are a 5*, you won't talk about $$ offered by other schools. It's highly likely that you are now taking $$ from your own school.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||The need for broader measures: Pts 4-5 Game and Content analysis||
4. Game theory
In recruiting, we must not just pursue recruits according to their value, the chance of getting them, and the resources required to do so. We must consider the constraints in time, money and class size of our competitors. We also must consider possibly misleading information about their “offers.” To misdirect its competitor, a school may get their own best and solid commitments to remain “silent commitments” and express false interest in another school. They may also “offer” a recruit merely to elevate his apparent value. Such attempts at misdirection can get competitors to drain their resources by pursuing poorer quality recruits or high quality ones that are very unlikely to flip.
Possibly, we might identify such schools by analyzing why certain schools end up not getting players who (according to the NU analysis) had a high probability of commitment. Such schools may be more likely to have rescinded offers. Also, military, economic and many other analysts have developed methods based on game theory to help analyze a competition---not unlike our competition with other schools for recruits.
5. Content Analysis
In recruiting, there is a lot of soft information not captured by the NU prediction tool. We often are influenced by crystal balls, the words of analysts and even those spoken by the recruit and family. When we merely hear these words, it is often hard to gauge their meaning (or lack thereof). So they can instill false optimism and unnecessary use of resources. Or they may lead to false pessimism and insufficient resource use. All too often, the words present a lot of meaningless noise. But analytic methods have sometimes distilled meaningful signals from similar noise. Advertisers and financial analysts may do content analyses of positive or negative or neutral words. In recruiting, such analyses could include many factors that influence their significance, such as when the words were spoken (e.g., before or after a visit).
|3 weeks 5 days ago||The need for broader measures: Pt 2-3: Advertising and Networks||
2. Advertising effects.
A hidden value may emerge from pursuing a low probability/low quality recruit or having a camp in a region rich in more valuable recruits. The same applies to many other possible efforts to increase visibility—like a “sigining of the stars” event, a camp in Samoa, or even or a trip with the team to Rome. Many methods in advertising attempt to quantify the value of increasing visibility and brand awareness using various types of advertising.
3. Social network analysis
Having a close friend on one’s HS team who is committed or has interest in a particular school can powerfully influence some players to join him. Sometimes then, it makes sense to recruit the friend to attract the target player. It may also make sense to take a middling recruit from a “pipeline” school—one that has or will have other, more valuable players in the future. Hiring a coach from such a school may also work. One may even hire coach who is the parent or other relative of a valuable recruit. Many social science methods exist to assess influence networks, and such methods could help design more effective recruiting strategies.
|3 weeks 5 days ago||The need for broader measures: Part 1: Resource Allocation||
The NU prediction tool seems to have value. But it is only a very crude prediction tool, and the task coaches face is not simply prediction. It is a broader decision problem that must consider many other factors—some easier and some harder to analyze but all of them addressed by existing methods. In the next 5 sections, I mention a few of these. At the very least, these sections should illustrate how complex the recruiting problem is. Ideally, however, I hope that a student here may apply one of the methods listed (possibly with financial assistance from the AD).
1. Resource Allocation and Cost-effectivess/cost utility Analysis
Successful recruiting requires us to consider not just the likelihood of the recruit committing but also the money and time needed to pursue him. That pursuit decreases the resources that could be used on other players. In addition to considering the chance a recruit will commit (NU method), we need to consider his quality and whether he fits position needs now or in the uncertain future, as well as the sometimes uncertain constraints of class size. Operations researchers have extensively studied how to allocate limited resources within such constraints (e.g., money and time).
|7 weeks 4 hours ago||Sagarin ratings predict the actual outcomes of future games||
If that is non-"sense", then please prove to us why your own subjective "sense" is better.
|7 weeks 8 hours ago||Sarcasm aside: Sagarin ratings consider far more than two passes||
I agree with your point that we have a way to go. Nowhere did I say thet UM would outrank Ala or Clemson this year. In fact, the Sagarin ratings confirm we would still be below them. That would still be the case, even with my added corrections.
|7 weeks 8 hours ago||That is a common point of view||
But Sagarin already considers that. And I think his view adds something to the discussion.
|7 weeks 9 hours ago||All based on objective Sagarin ratings||
except for the in-state home field and OT corrections, which were highly conservative. If you disagree with these corrections, tell us why.
|9 weeks 5 days ago||I said 3 SB MVPs||
The 4th SB he won but his WR Deion Branch got the MVP (probably because the NFL committee thought TB had already won too many awards himself). Branch did not later distinguish himself when he left the pats and TB was no longer throwing to him.
|9 weeks 5 days ago||2nd hand rumor from an OSU guy and spread by Cowherd||
Harbaugh rumors based on one second hand quote that was later walked back.
The person spreading the rumor—Cowherd—has had widely publicized conflicts with JH.
The person originating the rumor--Breer--not only comes from OSU but also previously smeared UM alums while praising OSU players. He praised ex OSU QB Braxton Miller, who had not even gotten a single NFL first down until Nov 13.. Meanwhile, he spread negative rumors about Tom Brady, who won 3 super bowl and 2 NFL MVP awards and holds at least 22 NFL all-time records. Nearly 3 years ago, Breer spread rumors that Tom Brady might “be on the clock” for replacement by his backup.
How did that rumor turn out, Albert?
|10 weeks 4 days ago||Speculation about Zak Irvin's back||
I have noticed a change in zak irvin’s jump shot between HS and college. He seemed more upright in HS.
But in college he has adopted a more bent posture (i.e.,flexion between his legs and back at about a 20 degree angle).
This posture change could have slowed his development a bit. To some extent, it could also reduce his height advantage and put his shot closer to the defender.
So I wonder if his bent posture is due to continuing pain after his 2015 back surgery. Or maybe it is a correctable bad habit developed when he did have back pain. To relieve disk pressure on nerves from the spinal cord, many people find it less painful if they are in a bent posture.
|11 weeks 8 hours ago||Moreover, consider the irony.||
The only coach who actually was part of the PSU cover up is now defensive coordinator at OSU (Schiano). This reprobate's current team will probably be in the playoff and supplant PSU even though his current team lost to PSU and, unlike PSU, failed to win the conference.
Maybe this is poetic justice for the institution--PSU.
But where is the justice for OSU--the team that kept a guy who--according to sworn testimony-- failed to report child abuse to the authorities?
|11 weeks 11 hours ago||In a playoff based on the sagarin poll (not a biased committee)||
#1 vs #4 would be Ala vs Wash. #2 vs #3 would be OSU vs UM .
So, rather than just accepting a highly controversial and biased double OT decision for Ohio vs UM, we would be able to find out who is really best. UM would play OSU using neutral referees on neutral field (and presumably with a healthier UM QB).
|11 weeks 12 hours ago||UM #3 in Sagarin poll||
Clemson is not in the top 4.
That poll is one of many that can predict who would actually win a head-to-head matchup on a neutral field. But I don't think the committee will decide that way. IMO, they will not actually pick the "best" 4 teams. Nor will they pick the conference champs. How they will actually make their choices will depend on subjective biases. That is the problem with committees making decisions independently of any polls or other objective criteria.
|15 weeks 5 days ago||Two interesting facts||
1. Re: the crying about targeting:
2. Re: MSU and concussions:
(By mistake, I clicked on this freep link and was surprised to find something negative about MSU rather than UM. But this material was buried toward the article's end and its inclusion was probably just an editorial slip-up)
|19 weeks 2 days ago||Conversation before the fight||
JH: I'm gonna mop up the floor with your face.
Urban: You'll be sorry.
JH: Oh yeah, why?
Urban: Well, you won't be able to get into the corners very well.
|19 weeks 2 days ago||I agree with you but wanted to clarify one point||
You use the word "crazy" in a good way but not everyone takes it that way. People mean different things when they use the word: "crazy".
JH always seems to have a purpose behind his unusual acts. His detractors--people like the SEC commentators-- like to call his behavior "crazy". But many players--who don't want to be like everyone else--seem to appreciate JH's nonconformity. In fact, it's a trait that the winningest NFL coaches have had (eg Lombardi, Madden).
Unfortunately, the word, "crazy" is also often taken in a pejorative way to refer to diagnosable problems--the kind treated by Urban Meyer's wife--a psychiatric nurse. Recently, she and Urban described his battles with sedative addiction, depression, and anxiety--the latter of which may be confused with "heart attacks". But it also would be wrong to use the term "crazy" to refer to these not uncommon human vulnerabilities. In fact, there was a lot of praise here for the open revelation of these disorders by Urban and his wife.
|21 weeks 12 hours ago||Mike Dantonio||
"Mike Dantonio vanishes into thin air".
That is the link's title right now on USA today's front page. (it is about half way down on the page, if you want to see it)
|27 weeks 6 days ago||Probably for the reason you note||
OSU AD Gene Smith is violently opposed to Cinci. If they joined the Big12, then OSU would find itself between a major rival to the north and an in-state competitor to the south (which would also draw recruiting interest from Oklahoma, Texas, and other Big 12 schools).
|27 weeks 6 days ago||He was offered by Alabama||
and other big name schools.
|27 weeks 6 days ago||Shadenfreude alert||
According to a very unhappy MSU blog, he would have been the highest rated recruit for the Spartans.
|30 weeks 2 days ago||Why you need a full set of irons||
A golfer once sliced his ball down a steep embankment into a ravine. He took his 8 iron and climbed down. There he discovered an eight iron in the hands of a skeleton.
"Bring me my 7 iron. You can't get out of here with an 8."
|31 weeks 5 days ago||Schiano is one of the 2 main recruiters for Shaun Wade||
He's also in charge of recruiting a number of other top prospects.
|34 weeks 3 days ago||Affleck does echo the outrage over the NFL's abuse of power||
But perhaps due to his mental state, he misses many essential points. Most importantly, every scientist known to have examined this data since has concluded --not that the balls were deflated 8%--but essentially nil. The halftime PSI of the Patriots’ footballs was consistent with the Ideal Gas Law.
For a more comprehensive discussion of many other issues see the link below (which is already well-known to most of us).