fair point that
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- The NFL had no policy that applied to players;
- The NFL provided no notice of any such policy or potential discipline to players;
- The NFL resorted to a nebulous standard of “general awareness” to predicate a legally unjustified punishment;
- The NFL had no procedures in place until two days ago to test air pressure in footballs; and
- The NFL violated the plain meaning of the collective bargaining agreement.
|1 week 4 days ago||What one team in the top 40 has played ZERO ranked teams?||
OSU has played ZERO games vs top 30 teams (sagarin)
Highest ranked opponent is #39 PSU
Granted the SOS will change in the next two weeks, but the record may change too.
The Coaches' and AP polls should consider that. They are supposed to rank teams based on the strength of the records TODAY.
Note: Since Sagarin lists aggregate results vs top 30, not trop25 teams, I used the top 30 to denote "ranked" teams.
|4 weeks 4 days ago||In B1G, UM near top in SOS, OSU dead last||
So far, based on the sagarin and massey ratings, UM is again near the top in SOS thus far. Also, based on a 3 year average I calculated last year (link below), UM had the #1 SOS and would probably still be there in a four year average today).
Also, OSU so far this year is last in the Big Ten. Based on my prior 3 year average calculations, it was by far one of the worst 2 B1G teams in SOS.
Granted, there are still games remaining this year; and in my prior 3 year average, I had not yet included OSU’s playoff games. But OSU's average was so far below other teams that including a few more games would not have substantially changed the results. Also, including this year’s last place ranking would have made them even worse.
SOS rankings in B1G this year (average of massey and sagarin)
1 NU 17
2 UM 24
4 PUR 34
5 IA 38
6 NEB 36
7 ILL 48
8 IND 50
9 RUTG 55
10 MSU 37
11 WISC 43
12 MINN 51
13 PSU 53
14 OSU 57
Prior 3 year averages (see link) http://mgoblog.com/diaries/sos-b1g
|6 weeks 3 days ago||In the deck of Tarot cards used for fortune-telling||
12 is the card number of the hanged man
|6 weeks 6 days ago||I bet the BTN had them take it down||
I tried to see the UM MD game and was able to get it on mgovideo Mon. But now, it's been taken down. They do still have up the "every play" offense and "every play" defense videos, however.
I thought maybe I could get the whole game in one piece on BTN2go, but it looks like they do not offer reviewing of last week's games.
|7 weeks 3 days ago||Don't they have another safety who is suspended||
Dantionio suggests in the article that the player needs to take care of court business before he can be reinstated, but his court date is now Oct 21--after the UM game. Will Dantonio keep his word and continue the suspensioin pending a sentence?
|7 weeks 3 days ago||His ratings are unbiased in||
His ratings are unbiased in the sense that they are derived from actual data and do not under or overestimate the actual margins of victory in future games, I believe.
Granted, you could start a priori with a different type of model. Intuitively, I agree with you that it seems logical to consider not merely the difference in scores but also their sum (the total amount of pints scored). The question, however is not whether the model seems logical but whether it actually performs better than Sagarin's.
One simple-minded way to construct such a model ould be to divide the difference in the two teams' scores by the sum. So a 28-21 win would get 7/49=1/7 of a point, while a14-7 win would get 7/21=1/3 of a point---moie than twice as much. That model would not however distinguish a 14-0 win from a 28-0 win, as both would get a full point of credit. So, you would need to fiddle around with the formula to get more reasonable results across a wider range of examples. Also, you would need to work out some fancier statistics to test the signifance of your results, since your statistic would not be normally distributed.,
If you have studied this problem for 30 years, and you are confident that Sagarin's model is worng, you certainly must have thought about how to replace it with a better one.
|7 weeks 4 days ago||I would not use the word "unshackle" but||
it might be possible for him to learn to think more quickly, within the limitations of his own capacities.
The process reminds me of playing golf. When you are learning a stroke or changing it, you have to think what you are doing--and that often makes you even worse. In FB, it also probably makes your reads slower. That is because the neural circuits in the brain that control consicious intention notn only operate more slowly but may actually interfere with those that promote smooth, automatic movements. To an extent, that could be happeninng with Rudock in the process of learning from Harbaugh and getting accustomed to a new scheme. But a lot of practice and intense motivation could help speed up the process of making his "reads" more automatic, faster, and more accurate.
Tom Brady has a clinic devoted to teaching athletes about methods to speed up these processes.(the TB12 center in Foxboro, ma).
|7 weeks 4 days ago||yes--also that the voters do not remember who beat whom||
Anybody here with an opinion similar to the AP or Coaches' rankings should ask themselves:
Even if you spend a half hour of your busy day reviewing these facts, I wonder how much you will remember about them when you make your rankings. I wonder whether you actuallly even consider what you do remember when you rank the teams.
Indeed, neither MSU or OSU has played any of the teams in the current top 25 linked above, yet they are ranked #1 and #3. Did voters even consider the fact that both teams' latest wins were not detrmined untill essentially the end of each game? Both against unranked teams? Including MSU's home game against a terrible Purdue team? Did they consider last week how the quality of MSU's best opponent (now unranked Oregaon) plummeted in the computer polls after the latter lost by 42 points to Utah? Not much, I think, since MSU remained #2 last week.
|7 weeks 4 days ago||Your opinion appears based entirely on your own opinion||
It is unclear from your post how you formed that opinion. By contrast, Sagarin's model is based on many years of data. It is unbiased and actually predicts the outcomes of future games quite well---much better than the rankings based entirely on opinion and subject to other biases (eg coaches' poll).
Sagarin's ELO-CHESS rankings ignore lopsided scores, a process yoiu seem to favor. Although they are more "politically correct,", they are not nearly as good at predicting future games as are the ratings in the OP's link (eg PREDICTOR rankings).
|7 weeks 5 days ago||Clarificiation and further context||
Although the book is published by a “vanity press” that usually makes authors pay for their own publication, it apparently made an exception here. The company itself paid a journalist to coauthor the book and check facts. Also, although the company claims to give the authors 100% of their profits, it is giving the madam only 10% (of the gross). The journalist also likely gets a percent, which could make him less than completely objective in “checking facts.”
Most legitimate publishing companies would probably not touch this book because of its legal risks. However, the publishing company is owned by an IU booster whose family name is allegedly on the law school building. So, the booster/publisher probably has deep pockets and a lot of free legal help. Also, if anybody sues for defamation, the NCAA may get more potentially incriminating evidence against Louiville..
|7 weeks 5 days ago||Given the sordid state of college BB recruiting||
and the alleged evidence, it would not surprise me if the main allegations were true. Supposedly, the facts were checked by the madam’s co-author, who won a Pulitzer prize 40 years ago for investigating police corruption.
At the same time, the book’s publishing company is hardly what a Pulitzer-prize-winning author would usually choose. The company is what’s called a “vanity” press. Ordinarily, authors pay the company to get their work published. It doesn’t exercise significant editorial review or control. I doubt that it carefully checked out the salacious stories, which supposedly even talk about murders at Louisville. Finally, I believe the publishing company is owned by a booster at IU (not to mention that the primary author is a hooker).
So, there are reasons to be skeptical. But it's about time that some of the corruption in BB recruiting is investigated. I hope the NCAA does more than its usual, superficial job.
|10 weeks 5 days ago||MSU cheerleaders had so many yeast infections,||
they didn't know whether to go to a doctor.....
...or to a baker.
|17 weeks 1 day ago||Amid the NFL's trial by media soundbytes, Brady asks to be heard||
• neither he or his coworkers did anything of which they have been accused.
• the cell phone revelation is an intentional attempt by the NFL to distract from their lack of real evidence of any wrongdoing.
• In fact, he destroyed the cell phone only after his lawyers told the NFL they had no right to it under ANY circumstances—that Brady would not set an NFL precedent for further invasions of other players’ constitutional rights to privacy.
• he never wrote, emailed, or texted to anyone anything about football air pressure before the issue was raised
• he had already turned over to Wells all the information he requested; and the NFL knows they already have all the texts in question.
Had Brady been allowed to speak or communicate on his appeal instead of being subjected to a gag order, he could have addressed the replaced phone before the NFL got to frame it as it did.
|17 weeks 1 day ago||Interview with a prominent sports law expert||
Michael McCann, a law professor at the University of New Hampshire who writes for Sports Illustrated and SI dot com, is interviewed on WEEI radio:
Q: (How significant is the cell phone?)
Q: The National Football League took a very unusual and rare step this afternoon by taking their own decision to a Manhattan court--almost like a preemptive strike to perhaps keep this case away from the Minnesota court. Have you ever seen a league take its own decision to court before the alleged guilty party does?
Q: Just based on your experience, what do you think is gonna happen in terms of court?.
Q:. Is an injunction a possible remedy for Brady to.push (the suspension) back into next year?
Q: An NFL source told Stephen A Smith earlier today that the National Football League was totally confident that Tom Brady's four game suspension was going to be upheld in court of law. Is that whistling past the graveyard?
Final Q: Do you think Tom Brady has a case for a defamation lawsuit?
Summary: This is not a slam dunk case but McCann thinks Tom Brady has fairly significant case and that the cell phones are not a big deal….they're not required.
|17 weeks 1 day ago||A statement from Brady's representative (also my thoughts)||
"The Commissioner’s decision is deeply disappointing, but not surprising because the appeal process was thoroughly lacking in procedural fairness.
"Most importantly, neither Tom nor the Patriots did anything wrong. And the NFL has no evidence that anything inappropriate occurred."
(Indeed, it is odd to accuse someone of deflating balls when the balls were not abnormally deflated in the first place--as shown in an independent AEI report)
"The appeal process was a sham, resulting in the Commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision. For example, the Wells investigative team was given over 100 days to conduct its investigation. Just days prior to the appeal hearing, we were notified that we would only have four hours to present a defense; therefore, we didn’t have enough time to examine important witnesses. Likewise, it was represented to the public that the Wells team was ‘independent’; however, when we requested documents from Wells, our request was rejected on the basis of privilege. We therefore had no idea as to what Wells found from other witnesses, nor did we know what those other witnesses said.
"These are just two examples of how the Commissioner failed to ensure a fair process.
"Additionally, the science in the Wells Report was junk. It has been thoroughly discredited by independent third parties.
"Finally, as to the issue of cooperation, we presented the Commissioner with an unprecedented amount of electronic data, all of which is incontrovertible. I do not think that any private citizen would have agreed to provide anyone with the amount of information that Tom was willing to reveal to the Commissioner. Tom was completely transparent. All of the electronic information was ignored; we don’t know why. The extent to which Tom opened up his private life to the Commissioner will become clear in the coming days."
(Indeed, would any sane person with political aspirations go beyond that with an organization that had proven itself so untrustworthy? The NFL had already leaked countless false and misleading reports of ball pressures to the press, then failed to correct them or even nform the accused parties of the true pressure readings).
"The Commissioner’s decision and discipline has no precedent in all of NFL history. His decision alters the competitive balance of the upcoming season. The decision is wrong and has no basis, and it diminishes the integrity of the game.”
|17 weeks 1 day ago||NFLPA: This outrageous decision is a new low for the NFL||
"The Commissioner’s ruling today did nothing to address the legal deficiencies of due process. The NFL remains stuck with the following facts: •
The fact that the NFL would resort to basing a suspension on a smoke screen of irrelevant text messages instead of admitting that they have all of the phone records they asked for is a new low, even for them, but it does nothing to correct their errors."
(So, the NFLPA is taking the NFL to court. It will be interesting to see what they find when Goodell is finally forced to do what he refused to do ie to testify under oath, as Brady did already)."
|17 weeks 1 day ago||Patriots find Goodell decision incomprehensible||
“We are extremely disappointed in today’s ruling by Commissioner Goodell. We cannot comprehend the league’s position in this matter. Most would agree that the penalties levied originally were excessive and unprecedented, especially in light of the fact that the league has no hard evidence of wrongdoing. We continue to unequivocally believe in and support Tom Brady. We also believe that the laws of science continue to underscore the folly of this entire ordeal. Given all of this, it is incomprehensible as to why the league is attempting to destroy the reputation of one of its greatest players and representatives.”
|17 weeks 1 day ago||Brady is now suing the NFL||
|17 weeks 3 days ago||For anyone who worries too much about expansion,||
remember the movie Annie Hall. Woody Allen’s younger self is depressed. He won't even do his homework. So his Mom takes him to see a doctor in Brooklyn.
The doctor asks him why he's so depressed that he won't even do his homework.
The young Woody explains:
His Mom then raises her hands in exasperation and says: What’s the universe got to do with it? You’re here in Brooklyn! Brooklyn is not expanding!
|21 weeks 4 days ago||If he already had two concussions, a third might be serious||
Three concussions carry with them a higher risk of long term brain damage.
Without knowing Pipkins' history, it isn't possible to say whether that alone warrants quitting football. He would have more risk from playing if the symptoms lasted longer or if he had progressively worse impairments of thinking or mood with his 2nd concussion this spring. In that case, it could take less impact to cause a third one.
To understand why Harbaugh handled Pipkins as he did, recall the furor over Hoke's handling of Morris' concussion. That was potentially a far riskier situation---leaving Morris in the game and risking a second concussion in close proximity. But it is easy to see why a coach would want to err on the side of caution in recommending that a player hang up his cleats. And that's just based on Pipkins' concussion risk--not to mention the traumatic arthritis and ACL. As Brian suggests, Harbaugh's recommendation to Pipkins may have less to do with scholarships than safety.
|22 weeks 4 days ago||Science News also clobbers the Wells report this week||
“data on the supposedly offending footballs was "collected so haphazardly that they wouldn’t be allowed in a high school science fair”
PS A fourth grader actually did disprove the Wells report findings in his science fair
|22 weeks 5 days ago||Sports Illustrated's irresponsible lack of reporting||
Where is SI author Mike Rosenberg when a real scandal breaks---like the NFL commissioning a possibly fabrcated report? Does the NFL have some kind of hold on SI?
This entire week, SI has said nothing I could find about the AEI critique of the Wells Report.
Greg A. Bedard @GregABedard
@bruin_9 yeah right. They're totally above board with press leaks and releases. Would have more weight if they shut up and gave it to NFLPA
One blogger responded to this tweet:
"Did he recently suffer a blow to the head that affected his memory? He has a problem with AEI "leaking" information to the press? I don't know how he can get snippy about that topic with this particular story when the NFL was running to the media right after the AFCCG and then leaking false information 2 days later. But, yeah, those AEI guys, how dare they..."
I do not know the financial relationship between SI and the NFL, but Bedard this week admitted the NFL wants this whole thing to go away. In any case, it’s disturbing that they seem to want to help the NFL make it go away--by criticizing the release of major news and themselves suppressing news that has appeared in most major newspapers and sports media, including but not limited to the:
|22 weeks 6 days ago||I wonder if his visit will overlap with tne ND transfer||
He might explain the reasons why not to go to Kelly's ND program.
|22 weeks 6 days ago||AEI interview explaining their critique of the Wells report||
The speaker adds:
|22 weeks 6 days ago||Certainly, he has a lot of evidence||
I've read that the problem in such cases is that you need to prove an intent to harm. That is often not easy to do. I don't think that the court would accept an NFL-type criterion ie that Goodel "more probably than not" intended to harm Brady's reputation--or that he was "generally aware" of a scheme to do so.
|22 weeks 6 days ago||The LA Times questions the integrity of the NFL's analysts||
The firm, Exponent Inc has handled a lot of corporate cases. When asked what ones they did that did not favor the client, they could not come up with an example.
|23 weeks 2 hours ago||Summary of appeal letter from Brady and the NFLPA||
(detailed above as an addendum at the very end of the OP with a lot of details added)
1. Brady is not guilty
2. His punishment is unfair and inconsistent
3. Goodel and Vincent cannot judge this case due to bias as well as league rules.
4. If Goodel does not substitute an independent arbitrator, the NFLPA will sue the NFL.
|23 weeks 17 hours ago||I don't understand Kraft either||
Granted, an NFL owner is not given the right to appeal the commissioner's decision. His only recourse is the courts. And by suing the NFL he would be suing the owners--including himself--who made the rules and chose Goodel.
At the same time, with the strength of his current case and the outrageousness of the NFL's behavior, I do not see why he would not do this.
One possibility is that he has a deal with Goodel to elminate or lessen the draft pick penalties in the light of the AEI study. I am not sure if those results were available, however, when he spoke to Goodel and made the announcement.
Another possiblity is that Kraft knows that some NFL heads will fall over this--combined with the litany of other past failures by them. nesn.com or csnne.com suggested that there is a lot more to come in the next week about the keystone cop approach they've been taking. Certainly, Kraft could make a good case for investigating the NFL--to trace their malicious news leaks and evidence of their agenda. But all that would probably take a long time--unless there is already a smoking gun. And given the NFL charter, I'm not sure how that would lead to a reduction in the Pats' penalties, short of seeking that end in court.
EDIT: I thought of one more possibility. Maybe Kraft was sandbagging Goodel. Now, after the unexpected AEI bombshell, Goodel is really in a pickle. And he has less than a week before meeting with Brady and his lawyers.
|23 weeks 17 hours ago||actually, it's not just a matter of statistical significance||
(even though that would alone have been quite relevant).
In addition, when atmospheric factors were properly considered, the Pats balls were not deflated more than expected; rather, the Indy balls were inflated more than expected--thus, the false impression that there was more deflation in the Pats than the Indy balls. The reason for that was shown to be the fact that the Indy balls were tested at halftime later--after more time to equilibrate to a warm room.
If there was no abnormal deflation, then the ambiguous, out-of-context and incomplete messages become irrelevant--especially since there was no explicit statement of a scheme to deflate the balls. Even if there had been a scheme, the situation would be like that of bounty gate--in which players there was a scheme to hurt more other players--but the AEI found that more players were not hurt (actually fewer, if I remember correctly). To accuse somebody of a crime, you have to prove it actually occurred..
To me, the fact that the Wells study analysts misrepresented their methods in so many ways is by far the most distrurbing part of this whole overblown fiasco. The second most disturbing part is the way the NFL tried to disrupt the Pats and smear Brady on the eve of the Super Bowl with news leaks now proven to be inaccurate. I would not be surprised to see this matter end up in court.
|23 weeks 1 day ago||Bredeson #31 in 247 composite||
#1-29 are all 5*.
If Bredeson does well in US Army all american bowl, he's a shoe-in for 5*
By contrast, the top player in MSU's already very large class is #77 in composite