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I am a Max Bredeson zealot,…

I am a Max Bredeson zealot, no foolies.

New rule: if you feel the…

New rule: if you feel the need to write "Send me to Bolivia for this one and neg me as much as you want" - don't post your thread.

Reasonable minds can differ,…

Reasonable minds can differ, but the framing of "quite positive" as Craig's view in the original post seems overly optimistic.  I've also dealt with a number of injunctions and TROs, and I wouldn't have been comfortable handicapping this at anything better than a 60-65% chance.  Now, that is not a reason to settle and drop the motion (which I still believe was driven by NCAA/Big Ten posturing about the way the investigation would play out), but personally think it is a stretch to say with confidence we would've gotten the order.  

I am not trying to cast…

I am not trying to cast aspersions at Craig.  But, if his source was the judge or someone who knows the judge, that's a pretty big ethical violation by the judge.  I dunno, kind of skeptical anyone could know definitively how the TRO would shake out.  Judges are peculiar people.

Good stuff.  I think many…

Good stuff.  I think many people underestimate the impact Bredeson had on this team.  Can't wait to see him eject more people from the club next year.

Anyone who is "quite…

Anyone who is "quite positive" about obtaining a TRO, particularly in this type of situation, hasn't filed for many TROs.

My sense is that the NCAA and Big Ten pressured Michigan with the intensity of the investigation that would unfold if Michigan didn't play ball with the suspension.  Threatened, implicitly or directly, to find as many process "crimes" as they could (like Partridge).

No, I was yelling at all the…

No, I was yelling at all the idiots that did want him fired.  Matt fucking Campbell, are you kidding me?

Correct.  He said "book it"…

Correct.  He said "book it" it reference to Harbaugh to the Vikings previously.  Florio is not a reporter, he "connects dots" and has some contacts in the league.  He just piles inference on top of speculation and other people's reporting.  He is kind of a hack.

As I write this, Draftkings…

As I write this, Draftkings has him at -250 to go to the Chargers....the line has moved from -225 earlier today.  Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

All I can say is: ElmoFire…

All I can say is: ElmoFire.gif

Best: Michigan 3-peat title…

Best: Michigan 3-peat title and OSU dub; M could still run the ball on PSU.

Worst: MSU would improve and cover their season total; LSU would make the playoff; Ryan Day would learn to be aggressive on 4th down against Michigan.

Then if Michigan wins: "this…

Then if Michigan wins: "this wasn't even close to classic Bama.  Michigan got lucky against an off-year Saban squad."

Yes, he is.  He is an SI…

Yes, he is.  He is an SI reporter, was well-informed on signgate early on, and is a level-headed analyst on Split Zone Duo.

It is possible his source is misinformed or this report is inaccurate, sure.  But he has a history of credible and accurate reporting.

Yes, Richard Johnson is a…

Yes, Richard Johnson is a credible college football source.

I don't know how much is…

I don't know how much is Leipold vs. him behind their offense, but seems like would be PSU's best OC since Moorhead.  KU's run game is fascinating and tricky as hell.

None of this is an accurate…

None of this is an accurate description of the TRO process. This guy is a blowhard.

There are worse ideas than…

There are worse ideas than this, but not a whole lot of em.

Why, pray tell, would an…

Why would an unbiased enforcement body have any reaction to the execution of a contract extension for a head coach whom they are impartially investigating?  Especially if this contract extension was already planned before news of their investigation broke?  And even more so if their investigation was launched in reaction to a report from a private investigator that explicitly stated it was unable to link that head coach to the alleged rules infraction?  Sounds strange to me Pete, I think you must have some wires crossed.   

Can't wait to wear your team…

Can't wait to wear your team out on November 25 for the third year in a row.

I will accept both varieties…

I will accept both varieties, ideally delivered together.

I have about a dozen pending…

I have about a dozen pending FOIA requests with OSU to see if Day was dumb enough to do this through the university.

It is not being asserted…

It is not being asserted because it is not a serious defense to what is alleged.  Technical arguments always sound better on paper.  Anyone who can zoom out knows "no in-person scouting" also means "no sending an agent to film what you are prohibited from scouting in person."

That's a lot of words to…

That's a lot of words to write all to never say "it's not true."

Just because a technical…

Just because a technical argument exists does not make it a good one.  I made my points in the other thread but this is not holding water before your average judge, let alone the NCAA.

Let's suppose you're right, and Connor parsed the legislative history of this section and landed where you did.  Even if that is your conclusion, which I really cannot accept, you clear that practice with your compliance office first, like Jim did with satellite camps.

 

I am sorry.  Maybe "good…

I am sorry.  Maybe "good faith" was not a fair descriptor.  It is an argument, I do not think it is a winning argument.  It requires a reading charitable to Michigan for every aspect of the analysis.  

11.6.4 Cost of Exchanging Video. It shall be permissible to pay the costs of exchanging video for scouting purposes in any sport, including the expenses of an individual traveling to pick up the video.

This subsection is clearly in reference to costs for exchanging videos with opponents.  "Exchange" is the important word.  Removing that section is not relevant to the proprietary of Stalions's alleged conduct.

11.6.4.1 Use of Commercial Entity. It shall be permissible in all sports for an institution to obtain video of a future opponent's athletics contests for scouting purposes from a commercial entity that provides video recording/dubbing services, provided the institution requesting the video pays no fees or expenses related to obtaining the video of the future opponent's athletics contests, except for providing a blank videotape or DVD (or other medium) and paying postage costs.

This subsection is pretty obviously in reference to TV Networks.  What Stalions allegedly did (at least from publicly available information) is also not within the confines of this subsection by its plain meaning.  So again, its removal does not address the circumstances at play.  

What we are left with is the current version of 11.6:

"off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents (in the same season) is prohibited."  Pretty clear a team is prohibited from going to an opponents' games.  Now, "in-person" is certainly doing some work here.  But, unless I am missing something (would not be the first time), "in-person" is not addressed by the prior versions of the rule now stricken, nor in the legislative history.  I think most third-party neutrals would look at counsel making your argument at this point and say "really? they cannot go scout in-person, but they can send an agent to do that for them, record a perspective that would be available to an in-person scout, and share that recording with the team for scouting purposes?"  

I would love to be wrong.  But having advanced/seen opponents make arguments like these and watched them get quickly brushed aside by judges over the years, I just can't bite.

I am aware that the language…

I am aware that the language I quoted was removed, I stated it was removed. 

I think you can fairly read, based on the plain text of the current rule, that they simplified the question by removing the reference to third parties and different sports, and made it clear that what was outlawed was in-person scouting.  I cannot make a good faith argument that removing examples of permissible video services with limits then allows for an institution to create its own "commercial entity" and use a cut-out to conduct otherwise impermissible in-person scouting.  Again, if Connor used an existing service, maybe there's an argument. 

I think this whole saga is fairly overblown, but I disagree that we can say "in person scouting" is prohibited, but "paying people to go scout your opponent in person and record and send back to you" is permitted.  You don't have to agree with me, and your argument is not totally off the wall, I just do not think it flies in the real world, before the NCAA (or most judges). 

My personal opinion is that…

My personal opinion is that penalties should not be in the realm of a post-season ban, instead a fine and scholarship loss, show cause for Connor/those involved makes sense to me.  But that is an entirely separate question as to whether the NCAA changed its rules to allow what Michigan is accused of doing.  

I am a defense lawyer, and…

I am a defense lawyer, and have done a fair amount of work involving statutory construction and legislative history.

Even wearing my maize and blue glasses, removing the below permissible activities from the rule and leaving "no in-person scouting" does not mean "deploying an agent to videotape what you are prohibited from doing in-person" is permissible:

11.6.1.2 Purchasing Video -- Postseason. In basketball and women's volleyball, following the selection of any postseason championship field until the conclusion of the championship, it shall be permissible for the participating institution to pay the costs of purchasing video for scouting purposes from individuals or professional scouting services.

11.6.4 Cost of Exchanging Video. It shall be permissible to pay the costs of exchanging video for scouting purposes in any sport, including the expenses of an individual traveling to pick up the video.

11.6.4.1 Use of Commercial Entity. It shall be permissible in all sports for an institution to obtain video of a future opponent's athletics contests for scouting purposes from a commercial entity that provides video recording/dubbing services, provided the institution requesting the video pays no fees or expenses related to obtaining the video of the future opponent's athletics contests, except for providing a blank videotape or DVD (or other medium) and paying postage costs.

Not to mention, legislative history only comes in when the "statute" is ambiguous.  While you can of course argue it has ambiguities, I do not think a neutral read of 11.6 invites an ambiguity as to whether you can send non-staff scouts to do something the staff is explicitly prohibited from doing.  You would have an argument if Michigan used "Sign Stealing Incorporated" which was an existing commercial entity that offered their video broadly, but someone on staff directing an agent to make recordings just for our purposes is not that.  

This is doubly the case when the enforcement body is going to interpret its own rules.  I would love to be wrong, but I do not see this as a magic bullet defense to what is charged.  

 

I am a staunch Michigan…

I am a staunch Michigan defender predisposed to make these kinds of arguments, but I do not buy the "he didn't do it, he paid people to do it for him."  It is still insider trading if your wife or your grandma makes the trades instead of you.  This is not a serious argument.  

Everyone steals signs.  But…

Everyone steals signs.  But observing in person or using readily available tape to look at signs is not the same as sending someone to tape signals.  It is similar to what McDaniels got caught doing, if true.

The sunk cost fallacy is an…

The sunk cost fallacy is an emotional and psychological phenomenon, it doesn't have to be confined to a balance sheet definition.  But in terms of your "cash vs. accrual" distinction, if I take out a mortgage on a shitty house that is overpriced and I can't really afford, and then I refuse to move from that shitty house because I will lose my deposit despite the mortgage payment accounting for almost all of my monthly income and there being better houses out there that win more football games, that is the sunk cost fallacy.  I don't get credit when that house lights itself on fire and bails me out of everything, even if I have someone from the board of trustees turn off the smoke alarms.

"Coach Sunk Cost Fallacy" is…

"Coach Sunk Cost Fallacy" is excellent.

Spelled Mike, pronounced…

Spelled Mike, pronounced Mikey.  It is not a nickname.

I read Connelly's rankings…

I read Connelly's rankings release every Sunday, and still find value from this post every week.  Thanks for doing this.

IMO Burke has played pretty…

IMO Burke has played pretty damn well this year.  Don't think that is a crazy pick.

Re-watched the Maryland game…

Re-watched the Maryland game and the RG seems to have targeting trouble on stretch as well.

Kicking a field goal down 28…

Kicking a field goal down 21 points is bad strategy.  If you succeed, you are still down 3 scores.  Scoring a TD should have been Fleck's priority one.

He was PFF's highest graded…

He was PFF's highest graded freshman player.  He passed a 5th year senior starter who played multiple years by mid-season as a freshman, and had a statistically better freshman year than any of the players you named.  Ambry Thomas basically did nothing but return kicks his freshman year.  None of them were put on an equivalent to Marvin Harrison Jr. with no safety help snap 1 in The Game and graded out as "M's best outside cornerback" as freshmen.  In the chart you just showed he graded out significantly better than 2nd round pick DJ Turner. 

I will grant you that projecting he will be as good as a Heisman winner and 1st Ballot Hall of Famer may be a bit premature, but he had as good a freshman campaign as Michigan has had at corner since Woodson.

Serious question about you…

Serious question about you not buying the Will Johnson hype: what do you make of his performance against OSU and in particular Marvin Harrison Jr.?

On the rat drop techniques,…

On the rat drop techniques, I am trying to think back to last year.  From my (often faulty) memory I think they have been pretty consistent with approach, having ends drop at a 45 degree angle from the LOS, so not sure how much is gameplan dependent.  

Another explanation could be that Michigan runs those sim pressure rats frequently enough that it is expected by opponents on passing downs and the ends aren't selling their rush well enough. Therefore if the pressure is less effective, a team like Nebraska can have the time for the QB to hit the second window on a slant.  

ED: looked back at some tape from last year.  I was wrong, they do vary drops based on coverage.  Still think we may be tipping these sim pressures, but drops need to be better.

Big ups to the Fox producer…

Big ups to the Fox producer who cut to the field mics for sound during every TD celebration.  Roman's "get the F off me" was great.

Lawyer here: this is the…

Lawyer here: this is the most standard of letters in a dispute between parties.  It can maybe be viewed as posturing for litigation to ensue, but the obligation to preserve evidence attaches to parties well before a suit is filed.  A legal hold notice like this will often be attached to a settlement demand letter from a lawyer.  We knew Tucker would be looking for a parachute.  This particular letter means basically nothing.

Let's not forget they got…

Let's not forget they got into the playoff last year after losing by 3 touchdowns at home.  Manufactured motivation from Day.

Yep rumor I heard is hand…

Yep rumor I heard is hand surgery, out a few weeks then play with a cast.  Really sucks that its a hand injury for him, his hands may be the best part of his game.  

KG starting, so the Graham…

KG starting, so the Graham rumors are true?

Respectfully disagree on…

Respectfully disagree on pick 2.  When that ball is thrown as CJ hits his break, the corner is over the top of CJ, as long as CJ runs hard across his face, he has inside leverage and is in position to make the catch.  CJ starts to cross his face then seems to choke his motor a bit and work over the top.  I don't think we can "you should've thrown to Roman" that play when 1. Roman is running off that safety by design and 2. When thrown, CJ has the leverage you want, he just doesn't finish the route.  

Also, OTOH, I think pick 3 is the worst of the bunch when you consider context.  It is second and 5, up 25 points.  You have already thrown two picks today.  Against a different opponent if you are down or in a tight game late, maybe throwing a floater as you run from pressure all the way from the right hash into the left sideline is a risk worth taking.  But 9/10 the play there is to put that ball into a tuba in the band section.  Throwing it in this particular context tells me he's pressing.  Improvising is great, but JJ has to stay within the offense.  If the throw is not there as you run past the numbers towards the sideline, move on to the next play.

Great stuff.  Watching…

Great stuff.  Watching Hausmann I definitely saw the most burst from a LB around these parts since Devin Bush Jr.  Between his arrival, maturation of Colson, body change for Barrett, and return of Chris Partridge, this group went from iffy to a legitimate strength in a hurry.

What long drives?  And no.

What long drives?  And no.

Excellent as always, Mello.

Excellent as always, Mello.

My Purdue pick is mostly…

My Purdue pick is mostly based on blind faith in Ryan Walters to put together a solid team.