On Aug. 10, however, the state [Florida] changed its methodology and started counting daily new deaths by the date the person died instead of the day the death was registered. A handful of other states have also reportedly switched to such a process.
The total number of deaths did not change. How is this hiding anything?
The 2PC was reviewed during the commercial time-out, and I think they announced "confirmed" but the stadium was pretty raucous at that moment so I may have mis-heard.
OK, let's talk about the 4th down PI no-call. I will admit MSU was fortunate that it wasn't called; I was at the game in the lower end zone downfield of the play and at first thought "WTF just happened?" I didn't think it was possible that the throw missed that badly, and only caught the 2 MSU defenders crashing into each other. I fully expected a flag to come out, and when none did, I was surprised (but happy, obvs.)
So...why wouldn't the refs have called it? Possibilities:
1) The back judge missed it, due to angle and all the traffic. You can't see where the BJ is in the replay, so I'm guessing, but the contact happens underneath, the safety is flashing across the middle of the field - it's possible that the BJ was screened off. (The umpire is watching the LOS as he is supposed to and doesn't turn his head until after the play is over.)
2) They thought it was a pick play, and that Johnson as the picker failed to avoid contact with the defender as required in rule 3-8 (b).
3) [Crazy conspiracy talk redacted]
Most likely in my mind was (1), but could have been (2). Unfortunate, but it happens.
At D2/D3/NAIA schools, athletics are more of a marketing tool to bring in students, usually from out of state, that otherwise wouldn't have considered that school.
I can tell you from personal experience that non-revenue sports are "fractional" sports - meaning that the total number of scholarships is 11.7, but they can be divided up between players as the coach sees fit. What this generally means is that each athlete gets around a quarter and at most a third of a scholarship; and has to make up the rest themselves, through academic scholarships, financial aid, etc.
So it's not quite accurate to say that 11 players are on a full ride and 26 are paying their own way - all 37 are responsible for a majority of their own tuition.
With that in mind, if baseball was cut, would all the players transfer? I'm sure it depends on each individual's situation, but for many, the fraction of a scholarship they are losing may not be enough incentive to try to play elsewhere.
The only rule against deception I could find when the ball is in play is 9.2.2.a: "No player shall conceal the ball in or beneath his clothing or equipment or substitute any other article for the ball."
I asked my dad (BA '66, MBA '67, JD '69) if he remembered the turkey hunt. He said he was living in married housing in '67 but didn't remember the event or any others, so it may have been just a one time thing.
He did get a kick from the Michigan Daily page, though.
1. Anything outside 12 yards is on the goalie, anything inside 12 is on the defense. I didn't watch the game either, but 12 unassisted goals for Brown is most likely on the entire defense -- guys getting close and shooting off the dodge.
2. Looking at Michigan's 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes, I see a lot of quality east coast attackmen and mids committing, and not much in the way of poles...meaning that Michigan may have to win a lot of race-to-20-goals-type games for the next few years.
1. Tell him that lacrosse is soccer -- but better, because it has bodychecking, hitting people with a stick, and 20 goals scored per game.
2. Show him the videos of the Thompsons -- or, if you want to go old school, Gary Gait.
3. Have him watch the Albany/ND national semifinal game from last year. I got at least 3 people hooked on lacrosse by showing them this game alone.
15 is a bit late to start, but it can be done -- the hardest part for him will be the stick. He needs to watch Paul Rabil's wallball routine videos on YouTube and hit the wall for an hour a day.
DeLuca is a good coach and he deserves another opportunity, but I think he brings too much baggage for UT. I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up in DII or DIII.
I'm a big Lars Tiffany fan myself, but he's still relatively new at Brown and doesn't really have the proven record.
No, I was thinking Texas would go after a guy like Pietramala. They also might be able to lure an older coach like John Desko or Dom Starsia who is looking for a new challenge and warmer climate.
Texas pumping $4 million into renovating the lacrosse field just about 2 years ago is a pretty good indicator to me that they are serious about moving up from MCLA.
Some amount of the speculation in Texas about UT going D1 is wishful thinking by local coaches, to be sure -- pretty much as soon as UT goes D1, UIL (the Texas HS sports authority) will make lacrosse an official scholastic sport (vice the club sport it currently is). But the "word on the street" I mentioned came from a coach who is named elsewhere on this page, FWIW.
Mercer also has Kyle Hannan as head coach; he was pretty successful at DIII Goucher (129-71 in 12 years). He was also a player for Jim Berkman.
Word on the street here in Austin is that the University of Texas will be going DI sooner rather than later. Speculation is that they will take the Denver route and hire one of the big name coaches from the East.
For example, Denard was "at the helm" during the final four minutes of the Gator Bowl trailing Mississippi State by 38 points. During that last 4 minutes Denard went 1-3 / 6 yards passing, and 0 rushes for 0 yards.
Against Wisconsin 2010, Denard was at the helm during the final three minutes and fifteen seconds (with Michigan trailing by 20). Denard went 1-3 / 3 yards passing and had five rushes for 43 yards (before time ran out).
Whenever I hear the word "clutch" I grieve the loss of Fire Joe Morgan.
unless you transposed the numbers. The only team that exceeded its season average against MSU was Notre Dame. All the others gained less yardage vs MSU than their season average.
MSU averages 12.2 drives per game and converts only slightly higher than a third (34.4%).
Against FBS opponents, MSU has had 49 drives (12.25 drives per game, as you say) but has scored on 22, a 44.9% success rate, averaging 2.65 PPD. Or are you counting touchdowns only?
At 12.2 possessions/game, that does only add up to 32.33 points, so Michigan would still win, 38-32.
...was -better- [correction: worse] than YTD average in terms of success rate (33.3%, avg 31.7%) -but- [correction: and] worse than YTD average in terms of points per drive (2.33 PPD, avg 2.0 PPD).
What if your defense allowed the opponent to go 99 yards on every drive, and then stopped them at the 1 yard line and forced them to turn it over either due to turnover or on downs? After 10 drives, the opponent would have 990 yards -- terrible defensive performance by you, no? -- but 0 points -- awesome defensive performance by you, amirite?
What I am saying is that yardage by itself is meaningless. We really need to go tempo-free, and look at success rate (probably success rate +) and points per drive, among other things.
Yards are important to scoring, but by themselves, yards are meaningless. You can run up and down the field all day long, but without scoring points, you lose. That's why I say "yards without points are meaningless".
For example, in the Michigan - ND game, Michigan gained 86 of the 523 total offensive yards -- 16.1% of yards from scrimmage -- on two long drives that ended with missed field goals, zero points.
Prior to the Wisconsin game, the conventional wisdom was that MSU's pass defense is terrible again this year, because (subtracting out the FCS opponent), MSU was ranked #110 nationally in passing yards per game allowed.
However, MSU had also had more pass attempts against than any other team in FBS, and was also T-#69 for opponent pass completion percentage (56.3%), T-#39 for passing yards per attempt (6.0); #60 for opponent passer rating (122.48).
Post-Wisconsin, does anybody still think MSU's pass defense is terrible?
You have to look at the other factors -- YPA, Opponent Drive Success Rate, Opponent PPD -- to get a true indication of a defense's ability, not just total yards or yards per game.
You are exactly correct that touchdowns drives that last 3 minutes are worth the same number of points as drives that last 8 minutes. If anything, with an offense like Michigan's, you would want to score as quickly as possible in order to increase the potential number of groupings of independent tests (IOW, drives).
I have been looking at tempo-free applied to football (I think someone else here is working on the same thing). Subtracting out kneel-downs and non-offensive scores, Michigan's offense is currently at a 52.6% Drive Success Rate (that is, scores at the end of a drive, whether TD or FG) and averaging 3.6 PPD.
If you were scoring on 52.6% of drives, and had a weak defense, wouldn't it make sense to maximize your number of possible offensive drives in a game? Wouldn't 14 possible drives (on average, 50.4 points/game) be better than 8 possible drives (on average, 28.8 points/game)?
Conversely, Michigan's opponents would want to minimize the potential number of Michigan offensive drives per game. The conventional wisdom is to "keep your defense off the field", but that's got the point of emphasis backwards -- the idea is to keep the other guys' offense off the field.
So for example, MSU may go into low variance playcalling (also known as "vanilla up the middle run strategy", in an attempt to limit the number of potential Michigan possessions. Should MSU keep Michigan to 8 possessions -- on average, Michigan would score 28.8 points. Do you believe MSU could put more than 28 up on Michigan's defense? I do.
Keeping with your poker metaphor, I'd like to refer to Alfred Snyder's The Poker Tournament Formula. Snyder refers to "playing fast" and "playing slow" [not the same as slowplaying.] Michigan wants to play fast, in order to maximize the number of Michigan offensive possessions. Michigan's opponents should play slow, in order to minimize the number of Michigan offensive possessions. Of course, Michigan's opponents should alter the pace of play, should Michigan be successful on more than 50% of their possessions.
[Incidentally, Snyder's book, if you haven't read it, is awesome. It discusses pace of play; goes into the RPS nature of poker; ties in boat people, cagey codgers and ballcap kids; and advocates playing without even looking at your cards. Take his advice or leave it, it is a very thought-provoking barbecuing of sacred cows similar to RichRod or Mike Leach philosophies of offense.]
the line moves since have conformed to expectations by making Wisconsin about a field goal favorite at MSU
Uh.....no. Not unless Wisc -1.5 (per LVSC) is "about a field goal favorite".
Most lines AS OF RIGHT NOW 281910RSEPT2010 (that's 7:10 pm Central Daylight Time for non-military) are either Wisc -1.5 or Wisc -2. Only 1 has been as high as Wisc -2.5 -- that's M Resort, and was only there for about 11 hours before going back to Wisc -2.
And FTR I agree that there is a double standard at the Freep, and yes Dantonio should be held accountable for the outcome of what appears to be a poor decision.
...Tech is not really a rival to Texas. Lubbock is over 330 miles away from Austin. Tech is more like Directional Michigan to Texas.
Texas / A&M is more comparable, geographically and emotionally. Texas has .644 win percentage against A&M since nineteen ought two.
...it was a pre-emptive strike.
You calling out the hipocrisy of me calling out the hipocrisy of Brian calling out the hipocrisy of the billboard totally ruins everything.
Consider this: entering the game, Cousins had rushed 3 times for 5 yards and had shown nothing but a predisposition to just wing it downfield when pressured. Can you really fault the defense for not playing him to run?
Elsewhere on the MGoBoard, Cousins has been compared with Chad Henne (which is quite a compliment), but on that long run he reminded me of nothing but Steven Threet vs Wisconsin.
Recent Comments
Vodka is a clear liquid; use it in place of water in your prep mix.
You're very, very wrong.
Did you actually read the article you cited?
The total number of deaths did not change. How is this hiding anything?
The 2PC was reviewed during the commercial time-out, and I think they announced "confirmed" but the stadium was pretty raucous at that moment so I may have mis-heard.
Just curious: what's wrong with the offside rule?
Nebraska?
I agree, 1990 MSU got away with one.
Does it happen a lot?
OK, let's talk about the 4th down PI no-call. I will admit MSU was fortunate that it wasn't called; I was at the game in the lower end zone downfield of the play and at first thought "WTF just happened?" I didn't think it was possible that the throw missed that badly, and only caught the 2 MSU defenders crashing into each other. I fully expected a flag to come out, and when none did, I was surprised (but happy, obvs.)
So...why wouldn't the refs have called it? Possibilities:
1) The back judge missed it, due to angle and all the traffic. You can't see where the BJ is in the replay, so I'm guessing, but the contact happens underneath, the safety is flashing across the middle of the field - it's possible that the BJ was screened off. (The umpire is watching the LOS as he is supposed to and doesn't turn his head until after the play is over.)
2) They thought it was a pick play, and that Johnson as the picker failed to avoid contact with the defender as required in rule 3-8 (b).
3) [Crazy conspiracy talk redacted]
Most likely in my mind was (1), but could have been (2). Unfortunate, but it happens.
Illinois' win over Duke at Cameron is a quality win, but Sparty's win over Duke at Cameron isn't even worth a mention? #DISRESPEKT!
At D2/D3/NAIA schools, athletics are more of a marketing tool to bring in students, usually from out of state, that otherwise wouldn't have considered that school.
I can tell you from personal experience that non-revenue sports are "fractional" sports - meaning that the total number of scholarships is 11.7, but they can be divided up between players as the coach sees fit. What this generally means is that each athlete gets around a quarter and at most a third of a scholarship; and has to make up the rest themselves, through academic scholarships, financial aid, etc.
So it's not quite accurate to say that 11 players are on a full ride and 26 are paying their own way - all 37 are responsible for a majority of their own tuition.
With that in mind, if baseball was cut, would all the players transfer? I'm sure it depends on each individual's situation, but for many, the fraction of a scholarship they are losing may not be enough incentive to try to play elsewhere.
The applicable rule called against M way back when was 9.2.2.B, using a tactic associated with the substitution process to confuse opponents.
http://www.refstripes.com/forum/index.php?topic=12276.msg122987#msg122987
The only rule against deception I could find when the ball is in play is 9.2.2.a: "No player shall conceal the ball in or beneath his clothing or equipment or substitute any other article for the ball."
So...no offensive UFR vs Sparty then?
The idea that "the peaceful transition of power is a cultural accomplishment currently under threat" is patently ridiculous.
Michigan's best win right now is against a .500 non-P5 team (Air Force)
Michigan is also 5-0 agains teams with losing records (aggregate .359 win percentage).
Michigan is 0-2 against teams with winning records.
Hopkins joined this year as an affiliate member for lacrosse only.
Big Ten rules require 6 teams in order to have a conference championship.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-lacros/spec-rel/060313aah.html
1. Anything outside 12 yards is on the goalie, anything inside 12 is on the defense. I didn't watch the game either, but 12 unassisted goals for Brown is most likely on the entire defense -- guys getting close and shooting off the dodge.
2. Looking at Michigan's 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes, I see a lot of quality east coast attackmen and mids committing, and not much in the way of poles...meaning that Michigan may have to win a lot of race-to-20-goals-type games for the next few years.
1. Tell him that lacrosse is soccer -- but better, because it has bodychecking, hitting people with a stick, and 20 goals scored per game.
2. Show him the videos of the Thompsons -- or, if you want to go old school, Gary Gait.
3. Have him watch the Albany/ND national semifinal game from last year. I got at least 3 people hooked on lacrosse by showing them this game alone.
15 is a bit late to start, but it can be done -- the hardest part for him will be the stick. He needs to watch Paul Rabil's wallball routine videos on YouTube and hit the wall for an hour a day.
Good luck!
DeLuca is a good coach and he deserves another opportunity, but I think he brings too much baggage for UT. I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up in DII or DIII.
I'm a big Lars Tiffany fan myself, but he's still relatively new at Brown and doesn't really have the proven record.
No, I was thinking Texas would go after a guy like Pietramala. They also might be able to lure an older coach like John Desko or Dom Starsia who is looking for a new challenge and warmer climate.
Texas pumping $4 million into renovating the lacrosse field just about 2 years ago is a pretty good indicator to me that they are serious about moving up from MCLA.
Some amount of the speculation in Texas about UT going D1 is wishful thinking by local coaches, to be sure -- pretty much as soon as UT goes D1, UIL (the Texas HS sports authority) will make lacrosse an official scholastic sport (vice the club sport it currently is). But the "word on the street" I mentioned came from a coach who is named elsewhere on this page, FWIW.
Great discussion, thanks!
Mercer also has Kyle Hannan as head coach; he was pretty successful at DIII Goucher (129-71 in 12 years). He was also a player for Jim Berkman.
Word on the street here in Austin is that the University of Texas will be going DI sooner rather than later. Speculation is that they will take the Denver route and hire one of the big name coaches from the East.
For example, Denard was "at the helm" during the final four minutes of the Gator Bowl trailing Mississippi State by 38 points. During that last 4 minutes Denard went 1-3 / 6 yards passing, and 0 rushes for 0 yards.
Against Wisconsin 2010, Denard was at the helm during the final three minutes and fifteen seconds (with Michigan trailing by 20). Denard went 1-3 / 3 yards passing and had five rushes for 43 yards (before time ran out).
Whenever I hear the word "clutch" I grieve the loss of Fire Joe Morgan.
Sounds like they were getting pepper sprayed by the car's owner as they were painting it.
You know, like the Castle Aaaaarrrrrrggghhh.
No. An outside chance, maybe. But not a fast track.
And don't take seriously anyone who says MSU and undefeated season in the same breath; they're just trying to get under your skin.
I don't see MSU beating Iowa at Kinnick, with likely national exposure (possibly College Gameday or, even scarier, a night game).
Even if MSU was to get past Iowa somehow, they'll probably drop one other game -- most likely Northwestern, though Illinois could be a trap game too.
Why do you need a homerun threat at RB when you have a double homerun threat at QB in Denard?
Hence the "air quotes" around "home".
unless you transposed the numbers. The only team that exceeded its season average against MSU was Notre Dame. All the others gained less yardage vs MSU than their season average.
CW here in Big 12 country is that Oklahoma is down this year, especially defensively.
Against FBS opponents, MSU has had 49 drives (12.25 drives per game, as you say) but has scored on 22, a 44.9% success rate, averaging 2.65 PPD. Or are you counting touchdowns only?
At 12.2 possessions/game, that does only add up to 32.33 points, so Michigan would still win, 38-32.
...was -better- [correction: worse] than YTD average in terms of success rate (33.3%, avg 31.7%) -but- [correction: and] worse than YTD average in terms of points per drive (2.33 PPD, avg 2.0 PPD).
I agree that MSU's defense is not going to shut down Michigan's offense. I don't think anyone in the country can.
What MSU can do, though, is keep Michigan's offense off the field, through its own offensive strategy.
Also, you are again looking only at yards. Look at scoring:
Western: Avg 25.0 PPG, scored 14 vs MSU.
FAU: Avg 17.3 PPG, scored 17 vs MSU.
ND: Avg 24.6 PPG, scored 28 vs MSU in regulation, 31 in OT.
Wisconsin: Avg. 36.4 PPG, scored 24 vs MSU.
With the exception of Notre Dame (who scored 3 points above their average in regulation), MSU has held FBS opponents to below average scoring.
I don't know what a special teams TD should be worth in terms of turnovers. I like your suggestion of something more than 1 turnover in value.
However, that punt return TD did not make the difference between win and loss, just the margin of victory.
Remember, FAU was the "home" team, also FWIW.
What if your defense allowed the opponent to go 99 yards on every drive, and then stopped them at the 1 yard line and forced them to turn it over either due to turnover or on downs? After 10 drives, the opponent would have 990 yards -- terrible defensive performance by you, no? -- but 0 points -- awesome defensive performance by you, amirite?
What I am saying is that yardage by itself is meaningless. We really need to go tempo-free, and look at success rate (probably success rate +) and points per drive, among other things.
Yards are important to scoring, but by themselves, yards are meaningless. You can run up and down the field all day long, but without scoring points, you lose. That's why I say "yards without points are meaningless".
Michigan: 31.7% opponent success rate, 2.0 PPD
MSU: 24.2% opponent success rate, 1.5 PPD
But your analysis leaves out an important consideration: relative defensive strength.
I am sceptical that Michigan's and MSU's defenses could be considered equivalent, so that the difference would come down only to offensive ability.
Michigan will need to score a lot, and quickly.
Michigan needs to have 12 offensive drives minimum, and probably 13, to win, barring turnovers.
Keep in mind that MSU is -1 net turnover margin against FBS opponents, and beat Wisconsin by 10 in spite of a -3 TO margin.
For example, in the Michigan - ND game, Michigan gained 86 of the 523 total offensive yards -- 16.1% of yards from scrimmage -- on two long drives that ended with missed field goals, zero points.
Prior to the Wisconsin game, the conventional wisdom was that MSU's pass defense is terrible again this year, because (subtracting out the FCS opponent), MSU was ranked #110 nationally in passing yards per game allowed.
However, MSU had also had more pass attempts against than any other team in FBS, and was also T-#69 for opponent pass completion percentage (56.3%), T-#39 for passing yards per attempt (6.0); #60 for opponent passer rating (122.48).
Post-Wisconsin, does anybody still think MSU's pass defense is terrible?
You have to look at the other factors -- YPA, Opponent Drive Success Rate, Opponent PPD -- to get a true indication of a defense's ability, not just total yards or yards per game.
Brian,
You are exactly correct that touchdowns drives that last 3 minutes are worth the same number of points as drives that last 8 minutes. If anything, with an offense like Michigan's, you would want to score as quickly as possible in order to increase the potential number of groupings of independent tests (IOW, drives).
I have been looking at tempo-free applied to football (I think someone else here is working on the same thing). Subtracting out kneel-downs and non-offensive scores, Michigan's offense is currently at a 52.6% Drive Success Rate (that is, scores at the end of a drive, whether TD or FG) and averaging 3.6 PPD.
If you were scoring on 52.6% of drives, and had a weak defense, wouldn't it make sense to maximize your number of possible offensive drives in a game? Wouldn't 14 possible drives (on average, 50.4 points/game) be better than 8 possible drives (on average, 28.8 points/game)?
Conversely, Michigan's opponents would want to minimize the potential number of Michigan offensive drives per game. The conventional wisdom is to "keep your defense off the field", but that's got the point of emphasis backwards -- the idea is to keep the other guys' offense off the field.
So for example, MSU may go into low variance playcalling (also known as "vanilla up the middle run strategy", in an attempt to limit the number of potential Michigan possessions. Should MSU keep Michigan to 8 possessions -- on average, Michigan would score 28.8 points. Do you believe MSU could put more than 28 up on Michigan's defense? I do.
Keeping with your poker metaphor, I'd like to refer to Alfred Snyder's The Poker Tournament Formula. Snyder refers to "playing fast" and "playing slow" [not the same as slowplaying.] Michigan wants to play fast, in order to maximize the number of Michigan offensive possessions. Michigan's opponents should play slow, in order to minimize the number of Michigan offensive possessions. Of course, Michigan's opponents should alter the pace of play, should Michigan be successful on more than 50% of their possessions.
[Incidentally, Snyder's book, if you haven't read it, is awesome. It discusses pace of play; goes into the RPS nature of poker; ties in boat people, cagey codgers and ballcap kids; and advocates playing without even looking at your cards. Take his advice or leave it, it is a very thought-provoking barbecuing of sacred cows similar to RichRod or Mike Leach philosophies of offense.]
Uh.....no. Not unless Wisc -1.5 (per LVSC) is "about a field goal favorite".
Most lines AS OF RIGHT NOW 281910RSEPT2010 (that's 7:10 pm Central Daylight Time for non-military) are either Wisc -1.5 or Wisc -2. Only 1 has been as high as Wisc -2.5 -- that's M Resort, and was only there for about 11 hours before going back to Wisc -2.
Source: Vegas Insider Line Movements, http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/[email protected]/date/10-02-10/time/1530