a terrible blight on our fine country
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- 6 years 11 weeks
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- Skill == starting experience + recruiting profile + previous perfomace
- Support == surrounding talent + experience (RBs, WRs, OL)
- System == offensive scheme + regime tenure
- Schedule == expected quality of defenses that will be faced
- Work In Progress: 130 and under; historically roughly 60% of QBs with at leat 100 attempts
- Solid QB: 135; 10%
- Good QB: 140; 10%
- Great QB: 145+; 20%
- two position switches
- carries the cross of 9-effin-8
- sacrificed his body behind a poorly developed O Line
- tried to develop his passing skills despite lacking a actual positon coach
- learning a different scheme with new responsibilities....again
- I'd like to see if there's a link between about "roster integrity" and "turnaround time". If I recall correcty Saban had a pretty nice roster waiting for him at Bama and he did well pretty quickly. Michigan has a ready made roster for quick takeoff, IMO.
- What about doing the Bill O'Brien / Pete Carol thing and bringing in a career NFL guy as a replacement? If Mike Tomlin somehow becomes available I would do just about anything to get him. He'd be so awesome I wouldnt even know where to start quaching my excitement. I'd put him up there with Harbaugh in terms of attactive options for Michigan to consider. I also wonder how a guy like Jim Swartz or Josh McDaniels would do as a College Head Coach. Greg Roman would also get a look from me. Jack Del Rio? Schiano? Cut me some slack here, they cant all be gems.
- Also, what about sniping a guy from another bigger school and let them sweat all this stuff out? I know its a cliche thing for fans to do but Michigan's pockets run deep, yo. I'd holler at Jim Mora and Kyle Whittingham for sure. Guys like that.
|5 weeks 5 days ago||hallelujah!||
It has begun!!!
|5 weeks 6 days ago||slippery slope||
Many valid points on both sides have been raised but my intial reaction is that I dont like this. Does the U report all violations of the law to the parents? I dont know but I dont think so. regadless, why stop here? Why not keep parents appraised of the student's academic standing...etc. Basically, I'm concerned about the slippery slope.
|5 weeks 6 days ago||Word||
I understand what you're saying but I don't think we're on the same page as to what my intentions are. My goal isn't to go out on a limb, it's to be accurate while also being plausible. I want to categorize guys into expected tiers based on what I think history has shown given what I think I know about the player today. I dont want to bag these guys I just want to size up their skill and their context. Indeed, I'm generally expecting guys to be better than they were last year because that what I think happens when a player gets more experience and development time. Its cool that you disagree and I'd like to hear more about why that is.
Known Unknowns: Future events
Unknown Unknowns: I don't know
Predicting worse than 130 is just mean and that's not a goal of mine. A perfomrance at or below level requires an unskilled player or a lot of bad things to stack on each other. Either way I dont expect the guy to be a significant threat. I simply reference those things in the thesis about my expectation. Likewise predicting over 145 takes a really good situation. Precision beyond this is just asking to be wrong.
Adjacent tiers overlap which I think makes sense. Can we REALLY tell the difference between 136 and 139? Probably not. 136 vs 141? I think so.
Hope this helps you understand what I think this this is and what it isnt. Thanks for reading and for the feedback.
Where do you think these guys will end up?
|6 weeks 16 hours ago||Good stuff||
Bill Connolly at Football Studyhall has a good metric for rating RBs. I believe Green beat out Drake in that metric with Smith hanging out near average territory. Ty Isaac's lay available rating (2013) is the best of all.
Sounds like it's a dogfight in camp so we should have good depth.
|6 weeks 2 days ago||Welp, that's embarrassing||
I should have just gone with a picture of Harbaugh. I'm'a just leave so as to remind myself: when in doubt, Harbaugh.
|49 weeks 5 days ago||I don't expect it to happen either but||
MSU have up 14 to EMU and Wyoming. Purdue scored 31. Maybe State tris a little harder to shut us out or whatever but that defense gives up plays. It's all on Devin.
Cooks efficiency against not Jacksonville state, EMU, and Wyoming is also not that spectacular.
Our guys have a non zero chance.
|1 year 5 days ago||Thunder and Blazes||
aka Entry of the Gladiators. It's the "Adults" not the "Kids"
|1 year 6 days ago||Yep||
Also: Thunder and Blazes
|1 year 6 days ago||Gary Nova||
"I think their quarterback is a very, very good football player. "
Surely, he can't be talking about Gary "These Throws Aint Loyal" Nova. Someone please confirm.
|1 year 1 week ago||Fred Jackson||
So, our RBs dont understand the plays they're running and stuggle in pass protection. What is it that Fred does again?
|1 year 1 week ago||Identity||
The Ivy league shools chose their identity and Michigan chose to make a competitive football program part if its own identity a *long* time ago. That was a deliberate choice, not an accident. Sure, we can always change it but I like the identity we have and see nothing problematic about keeping it. What reason is there to shy away from high level competition other than "because it's hard"?
We're approaching 150 years and suddenly we're just going to bury that? Cant be serious...
|1 year 1 week ago||bull[ogna]||
If Hoke moves Devin to the receiving corps I will lose what little respect for him I have left. Devin has done more for him than anyone else on the team:
Yeah, Devin is struggling but god dammit he's earned the right to end his career on his own terms as the quarterback of this team.
Hoke moving him would be a slap in the face. "Well, Devin, thanks for everything but you just dont have it, kid. We're giving up on you." Morris has shown NOTHING that indicates he would provide an upgrade in performance at the position. Meanwhile everyone else is supposed to beleive they still have a shot at the POS B1G Title.What kind of message would that send to the rest of the team?
|1 year 1 week ago||outstanding||
Love the presentation of the context behind the Brown Jug story. Back when I was pumping out diaries like a madman,I ran across an article from the Harvard Crimson circa 1950 and it stopped me dead in my tracks. It prompted one of the diaries I'm most proud of Old Blue: the New Crimson.
I think Michigan can be the white knight but first "we" (those with influence) need to understand what Michigan is, what it isnt, and what we want it to be. Acknowledgement of the problem in the first step towards adressing it.
Lets go, Blue.
|1 year 1 week ago||Is It?||
I know what you mean and I agree from a long term perspective. However in the short term, the 2010 squad did not get *dominated* by mediocre teams like this team has so far this year. The defense was putrid but at least the team had a chance to win games against teams that were on their level (Iowa and Penn State). Against the good teams (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State) yeah it got ugly...do you personally expect a different experience this year? I can't at this point. I'll hope my ass off but that hasn’t been working, Holmes. The saying goes that offense wins games but defense wins championships…we need to win some daggum games, G.
The fact that Brady has assembled high level talent and we're getting embarrassed anyway is a liability rather than an asset at this point. The "youth" line bought him a fourth year, he's out of sand. We should be better than this.
Also, one thing Brady has enjoyed that RichRod didn’t was $1.5M to spend on coordinators. History would be very different if RR had been afforded that same support. Regardless, he failed and was rightfully ejected. But, let’s not act like the program isn’t on fire. If you prefer the hue of these flames over the hue of those, then that’s your prerogative. As for me, I’m sick of melting.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||I love Devin but he looks||
I love Devin but he looks really bad right now. Maybe there's too much thinking going on up there, too afraid to make a mistake. Hell, I dont know. He seems really hesitant to throw at times and I personally wish he'd scramble more often.
I certainly hope he gets back on his game because it would suck to see him go out like this.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||yes||
There are also a surprising number of inconsistencies when cross referencing to other PBP repositories. Nothing that's a show stopper but gotta be careful.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Unfortunately cfbstats is no||
Unfortunately cfbstats is no longer free. Packages start at $750/year.Historic data costs $1500. I'd be willing to pay for what my man was doing but that is just too steep. I has sad.
Seth was saying that mgoblog had a project going where the the free service cfbstats was providing would reside here. Not sure where that stands though.
[EDIT: here's a USAToday story to what happened to cfbstats. Basically these guys were doing similar things and BIG TIMERS (coaching staffs, etc) were subsribing to their stuff. That data is being provided to the CFB Playoff Selection Committee. So, the gobbled up cfbstats and now they're charging for it. I'd love to be part of an open source project to develop a free parser in python or something. Whatever man, this sucks.]
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Great Diary||
An unfortunate but necessary topic of discussion. Nice Job. Appreciate the link to your data as well. Some things I would like to investigate (or see investigated by someone else):
|1 year 3 weeks ago||12 yard run you say?||
Hmmm, where have I heard that before...
/self high five
|1 year 4 weeks ago||Awesome||
I wish I had something else to add but like besides football and math, cooking is right up there with stuff I like to do/learn about. Keep it coming.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||Good Post||
I would add that this approach will not work under all circumstances nor for all coaches. I think it can only work somewhere where expectations and short term goals are low. It took Dantonio three years to get MSU where they are now. He was the benefactor of huge good fortune in that his cheif rival (Michigan) took a major turn down at the very begginning of his tenure and he could buy time by beating us in 2008 and 2009 while his program took hold. The rest is history.
low expectations + good coach +good apporach + good luck ... some of those factors are more controllable than others.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||interesting||
Not sure if this was intentional or not but its interesting to me how you listed each discipline in terms of relative difficulty (run blocking easier than block identification easier than pass pro). I naively though that pass pro was easier for young linemen to execute than run blocking since it seems to be less of a test of straight-up strength.
Can you expand on what skills/traits are needed for run blocking vs pass pro?
Is run blocking less demenading mentally but requires more physical development thus takng 2-3 years of development to really become successful?
Thanks for sharing.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||Podcast Series?||
Not sure how this works with all of your schedules or whatever but I bet it'd be easier to do this (as opinion generators) and follow it (as opinion absorbers) if it were in audible rather than written. The jokes would probably land better too.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||The criticism of the format||
The criticism of the format itself I think is fair (for whatever my opinion on the matter is worth) but also think the tone and delivery of that criticism could have been expressed in a more productive way at least to begin with.
I know I can get carried away in some (probably most) of my diaries because, though I like reaserching and writing them, good God it gets tedious and boring trying to make it interesting and entertaining for anyone who isn't already in my head (i.e. me)... That's the precise reason I chose not to do the QB notes thing in 2011 and 2012 but I missed it so I chose to do it again for me and anyone else who seemed to like it. I like the reseaerch, I like *trying* to write informative and entertaining things about what I've found, and I like the feedback I get though I wish there were more of that. But its not easy especially at the volumes we enjoy here and during the offseason.
I think you made your point and the message was received. Continuing to double down is just unnecessary.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||Those graphics are SUPER helpful||
I think its an awesome 10000 foot view of what you guys think overall.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Preach||
A strong defense can carry the entire team. Buddy of mine was out in vegas last week and they had us at 6-1 to win the conference with MSU at 4-1. That was after Miller went down for OSU but I'm not sure that news was baked into those odds. Blended together its 2-1 odds for either MSU or Michgian to win the B1G...a combined 33% Bull[ogna]...I gladly took those odds. Anyway, its all about unknowns here and I dont think anyone really knows about Michigan's defense...yet.
Can't nobody bring me down at this point. Super hyped about this year.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||you and me, both reshp1||
Optimism, Pessimism, none of it matters. Might as well get hyped!
|1 year 6 weeks ago||I'd buy that (Etling has a||
I'd buy that (Etling has a higher cieling) because I beleive Nova is at his and its clearly not so high. However, Etling is still ascending and that was a brutal year last year. I am granting Etling 10-15 points of improvement where as I'm only giving Nova 5-10. Experience is a big deal obviously and Rutgers has better talent around Nova.
For me the precise order of this list is less informative than the tier the guy falls into: bottom, low middle, high middle, top, penthouse. I put numbers on there because it helps me slot guys particularly at the margin between tiers. My experience has been that the number assignment process has some merit and I find it fun to try to peg the rating as well the ranking.
Thanks for reading
|1 year 6 weeks ago||That's interesting. If he's||
That's interesting. If he's giving Stave a run for his money then he must be able to make the throws. However, this feels like a Denard Robinson vs. Tate Forcier situation to me where McEvoy probably isn't as good a passer as Stave, but his mobility adds another dimension to the offense that closes (actually overcomes) the gap between he and Stave.
From what I've been able to gather, McEvoy only started playing QB his senior year of high school (2010) but was able to earn offensive player of the year honors in Wisconsin that year anyway. He previously played wide receiver and safety. The guy is just a football player, and the fact that he was able to take down an award like the in his first year at a position is impressive to me. He got to Wisconsin by way of South Carolina and Arizona Western College (JUCO) and he was a QB at both locations. At Arizona Western he played in 8 games with a 0.681 completion rate and a 0.027 interception rate. That's JUCO but what I said for Kam Bryant applies here: you still have to make the ball go where you want it to go.
Bottom Line: I'm kind of surprised that Anderson has made this call. The OC he brought with him to Wisconsin was not the guy he had at Utah State and was actually the guy who took over at SDSU when Hoke & Co. left San Diego. A first year QB has a hard time even the good ones. Very rarely do they kick ass right away. But, he beat out a good player, has Melvin Gordon, a good offensive line, and can apparently slither around so, I think he can put up 135 and I think it makes sense to slot him next Connor Cook (before or after).
|1 year 6 weeks ago||agree completely||
We'll see if it happens but this could very well be a squad that surprises people who don't follow the team as closely as we do here.
Yeah, the oline has a long way to go but it is possible to win a lot of games with lights out defense. Then all of the sudden guys start getting it and, boom, where'd that come from?