at least it's not just us?
- Member for
- 5 years 11 weeks
- View recent blog entries
|4 weeks 4 days ago||4th Down Odds||
A couple points of clarification
The official PBP lists the play as 4th and 1, not 4th and 2
For those saying that the odds aren't about this team, the odds on any one single play aren't that different from the best to the worst. Do they differ, absolutely, but not that much.
Yes Michigan hadn't converted a third down prior to the play, 7 of the 10 failures where on plays of 8+ yards, not a lot of relavance.
Michigan has converted 58% of 3rd/4th and 1 this season, right on the expected average.
No team in the last 11 season has ever average less than 35% conversions on 1 yard to go situations. For Michigan to be at 30% expectation would mean that they were a standard deviation worse than the worst team in this situation of the last 11 years. And even then you are break even. I know if felt bad and that the play call was awful, but the numbers were firmly on Michigan's side unless you think this is actually the worst offense of all time, and then it was a break even decision.
|12 weeks 1 day ago||The pictures I found and even||
The pictures I found and even Google Street view show a yellow trim around the top of the stadium
|12 weeks 1 day ago||I added some contact info at||
I added some contact info at the bottom if you are interested
|14 weeks 2 days ago||I watched the game, I know||
I watched the game, I know what was happening but with MSU Defense and the USF offense, but come on. Best case scenario after that punt is to get the ball back where you had it, down 15 with a minute and a half to go. In a one possession game you can justify a punt but not when you need two possessions punting is game over.
|14 weeks 2 days ago||Thanks for the heads up. Poor||
Thanks for the heads up. Poor wording on my part, fixed it.
|14 weeks 2 days ago||There is some slight random||
There is some slight random variation but the fumble rates are pretty consistent year after year, regardless of age.
|14 weeks 2 days ago||Great question Michigan was||
Michigan was at 93% going into the play:
Incompletion: still about 93% (it was 3rd and 11, first down was unlikely)
Safety: only drops slightly to 92%, ND field position about the same as a punt, still need two TDs
Reality: dropped to 82%
The safety would have seemed devastating but in reality the interception was the only play that would have really swung the odds.
|15 weeks 11 hours ago||It makes predicting a||
It makes predicting a specific game very difficult, but over many games the pluses and minuses even out. Even in one specific game there is a pretty decent chance that swing plays are neutral, it's just that we tend to remember the ones were they don't.
|15 weeks 21 hours ago||The flip side is that from my||
The flip side is that from my work, teams with great defenses should go for it more, not less. They are probably going to stop the other team either way, so take advantage of a potential short field for the offense and go for it. When you are on the opponent's side of the field, trading punts is almost always a net negative for the team in opp. territory.
|16 weeks 2 days ago||I think they are going to be||
I think they are going to be about as good of a team as last year, but they trade Indiana and Penn State for Wisconsin and Ohio State. Plus, they weren't an extremely dominant 9-3 team last year, Illinois was the only FBS program they beat by more than 2 TD's. If you just adjust for schedule and assume everything else is the same, that takes them from 9 to 7. If they were a little lucky that gets you to six (about where I have them) and having the same team they did in 2012, which is about what I am predicting, quality-wise.
|16 weeks 4 days ago||I agree that red zone only||
I agree that red zone only tells part of the story. It's a stat designed to balance out total yards. Moving the ball up and down the field and scoring in the red zone can be two very different things, but I don't think it's a deceiving stat. I think most people take it for what it is. People don't look at rushing stats and say that they mean everything and neglect passing stats. Like most stats, red zone efficiency is a measurement of a team's success in a specific facet of the game, I hope I didn't give the impression that this was any more than that.
|17 weeks 7 hours ago||In this study and most of||
In this study and most of them I do, I include all plays for the first half of the game but only plays in the second half if the drive starts or ends within two touchdowns. Depending on defintions could tweak the When It Mattered sentiment but this should be about what you were looking for.
|21 weeks 2 days ago||Rodgers and Newton did after||
Rodgers and Newton did after starting at Jucos. Mallet did it his first season at Arkansas. Leinart did it as USC and Tebow did his first year as a starter but saw lots of time the prior year. I think that's it for the major conference guys.
|22 weeks 3 days ago||Another MgoBlogger in Topeka?||
Another MgoBlogger in Topeka? I thought I was the only one.
|26 weeks 3 hours ago||Henne||
A quick note on Henne. First, he was right below the cut off at -0.4 for his freshman season. I had him ranked at 42nd for the season and he finished tied for 19th in passer rating. There is a gap there but not a huge one. I think to understand the gap some, his opponent adjusted numbers are on par with similar quarterbacks, the gap isn't due to opponent adjustments. I think the big item that makes Henne seem worse than a quick gut check is that he wasn't great on third downs. His first and second down rating match up with his passer rating but he ranked 60th in third down PAN for the season.
|29 weeks 1 day ago||Fixed, thanks.||
|30 weeks 2 days ago||Corrected, thanks.||
|41 weeks 12 hours ago||The rating is an average of||
The rating is an average of all the service's ratings. That's a good point that this could be some of the difference at both the top and the bottom for Hoke vs Carr, with Hoke working in a 4 service environment vs 2 for most of Carr's tenure.
|45 weeks 1 day ago||It's really a quantity vs||
It's really a quantity vs quality thing. The aggregate points I used to rank has a strong bias towards signing more players. The guys Michigan got were very good, I believe Michigan was top 10 in LB avg rating, there were just two of them which kep the overall number down.
|49 weeks 4 days ago||The numbers are developed||
The numbers are developed based on the last ten years of games between evenly matched FBS teams, accounting for down, distance,possession, timeouts and score.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||Five games from the last 10||
Five games from the last 10 years above 80% on defense and lost:
2005 Nebraska 92%
Leading by 11 with 10 minutes left
2005 Ohio St 88%
Leading by 9 with 8 minutes left
2009 Purdue 86%
Up 13 in the third quarter
2004 Texas 84%
Leading by 10 to start the fourth quarter
2008 Purdue 84%
Up 14 in the second quarter
|1 year 5 weeks ago||You're about right on for the||
You're about right on for the 10% number but the first offensive play was run from the 46 after a long Breaston return, increasing Michigan's chances to about 28%.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||Like I wrote, in the final||
Like I wrote, in the final seconds things get a bit hazy. The 9% vs 5% has to do with the way I am counting. The 9% was the lowest when an offensive play was run. That was used for easier tracking in the database. It was 5% at the time of the punt, but 9% was the lowest when an offensive play was run.
The 9% does seem a bit high but I looked at the 100 games with the most similar situations, trailing by 3 ball around own forty and about 18 seconds left and 6% of teams went on to win the games so it isn't dramatically over stated.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||All of their damage is being||
All of their damage is being done in the first half and they are really pulling off early, but just able to get our in front really quickly.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Not saying it can't be done||
Not saying it can't be done before then, but just that its unlikely to, at least before 2014. There will always be outliers like KSU but planning on being an outlier is not a very good strategy.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||There is a time lag. The||
There is a time lag. The upper class players on the late Carr years were outstanding, some of the best in the country. The players he recruited those years that were upper classmen under Rodirguez, not so much.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||There is a points metric||
There is a points metric behind it but you can think of the top as best in country and the bottom as worst.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Fixed, thanks||
|1 year 7 weeks ago||Think of the replacement||
Think of the replacement player concept, but localize it to one team. If Denard wasn't getting the plays, would we be better off? Compare Denard to AJ McCarron. Denard is +.23 and the rest of the team is -.23. If we take away plays from him the net result is -.46/play. McCarron is at 0.36 but his team is at 0.22. Even though McCarron's per play average is higher, he has more support behind him would still mean there is a good chance of similar production. Michigan doesn't have that luxury. Denard isn't the most productive this year, but losing him would be a bigger blow than any other team losing their best player.
|1 year 7 weeks ago||Despite being only 8 games||
Despite being only 8 games in, Denard is already more valuable than any previos year. In 2010 Denard was worth 99 points and last year that dropped to 48 points with a strong supporting cast. This year's weak non-Denard showing has eclipsed prior. Doesn't mean he wasn't used more previously, just that this year the difference between his production per play and everyone else's is substantially greater.