...talks about how UConn hasn't been in contact and how they're out. (HT: UMHoops)
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|2 weeks 5 days ago||Fixed, thanks.||
|3 weeks 6 days ago||Corrected, thanks.||
|14 weeks 4 days ago||The rating is an average of||
The rating is an average of all the service's ratings. That's a good point that this could be some of the difference at both the top and the bottom for Hoke vs Carr, with Hoke working in a 4 service environment vs 2 for most of Carr's tenure.
|18 weeks 5 days ago||It's really a quantity vs||
It's really a quantity vs quality thing. The aggregate points I used to rank has a strong bias towards signing more players. The guys Michigan got were very good, I believe Michigan was top 10 in LB avg rating, there were just two of them which kep the overall number down.
|23 weeks 1 day ago||The numbers are developed||
The numbers are developed based on the last ten years of games between evenly matched FBS teams, accounting for down, distance,possession, timeouts and score.
|30 weeks 5 days ago||Five games from the last 10||
Five games from the last 10 years above 80% on defense and lost:
2005 Nebraska 92%
Leading by 11 with 10 minutes left
2005 Ohio St 88%
Leading by 9 with 8 minutes left
2009 Purdue 86%
Up 13 in the third quarter
2004 Texas 84%
Leading by 10 to start the fourth quarter
2008 Purdue 84%
Up 14 in the second quarter
|30 weeks 5 days ago||You're about right on for the||
You're about right on for the 10% number but the first offensive play was run from the 46 after a long Breaston return, increasing Michigan's chances to about 28%.
|30 weeks 5 days ago||Like I wrote, in the final||
Like I wrote, in the final seconds things get a bit hazy. The 9% vs 5% has to do with the way I am counting. The 9% was the lowest when an offensive play was run. That was used for easier tracking in the database. It was 5% at the time of the punt, but 9% was the lowest when an offensive play was run.
The 9% does seem a bit high but I looked at the 100 games with the most similar situations, trailing by 3 ball around own forty and about 18 seconds left and 6% of teams went on to win the games so it isn't dramatically over stated.
|31 weeks 5 days ago||All of their damage is being||
All of their damage is being done in the first half and they are really pulling off early, but just able to get our in front really quickly.
|31 weeks 5 days ago||Not saying it can't be done||
Not saying it can't be done before then, but just that its unlikely to, at least before 2014. There will always be outliers like KSU but planning on being an outlier is not a very good strategy.
|31 weeks 5 days ago||There is a time lag. The||
There is a time lag. The upper class players on the late Carr years were outstanding, some of the best in the country. The players he recruited those years that were upper classmen under Rodirguez, not so much.
|31 weeks 5 days ago||There is a points metric||
There is a points metric behind it but you can think of the top as best in country and the bottom as worst.
|31 weeks 5 days ago||Fixed, thanks||
|32 weeks 5 days ago||Think of the replacement||
Think of the replacement player concept, but localize it to one team. If Denard wasn't getting the plays, would we be better off? Compare Denard to AJ McCarron. Denard is +.23 and the rest of the team is -.23. If we take away plays from him the net result is -.46/play. McCarron is at 0.36 but his team is at 0.22. Even though McCarron's per play average is higher, he has more support behind him would still mean there is a good chance of similar production. Michigan doesn't have that luxury. Denard isn't the most productive this year, but losing him would be a bigger blow than any other team losing their best player.
|32 weeks 5 days ago||Despite being only 8 games||
Despite being only 8 games in, Denard is already more valuable than any previos year. In 2010 Denard was worth 99 points and last year that dropped to 48 points with a strong supporting cast. This year's weak non-Denard showing has eclipsed prior. Doesn't mean he wasn't used more previously, just that this year the difference between his production per play and everyone else's is substantially greater.
|34 weeks 5 days ago||I value 100% of my readers||
I value 100% of my readers even the blacked out ones playing Halo 3. I updated the heading to clear things up a bit.
|34 weeks 5 days ago||The issue isn't having the||
The issue isn't having the plays or the power to crunch them, it is a decision not to use them. As the chart above notes, Michigan was already 90+% chance of winning at the start of the third quarter with a three score lead, and it quickly climbed over 95%. Yes the starters stayed in the game but in my opinion, when the score reaches three possessions or more in the second, at the very least the strategy shifts from the teams' perspectives. Some positions may be subbed more liberally, play calling will likely shift down to a more conservative approach for the team with the lead.
|34 weeks 5 days ago||The numbers are all based||
The numbers are all based from Michigan's perspective so that rush defense heading was referring to Michigan's rush defense versus MSU's rush offense.
|35 weeks 5 days ago||Most of the perceived||
Most of the perceived variance is based on the fact the due to the lead, the second half is not included in these numbers. First half saw 6/8 passing and 4 big conversions while rushing had a decent 27 carries for 118 yards and 4 conversions. Second half the rushing really dominated but was excluded due to the size of the lead.
|38 weeks 5 days ago||Pulled the old database up||
Pulled the old database up and Brian Luke from Kansas gets the worst showing at -28 in a 2005 game against Oklahoma. 11/30 86 yards, 3 INT and -40 yards rushing
Juice Williams narrowly edges out Henne for worst B1G game, with a -20 in 2008 against Penn St
|39 weeks 5 days ago||+20 EV is one of the top 300||
+20 EV is one of the top 300 performances (not opponent adjusted) of the last ten years. It's only 6th for Denard overall, his best being last year against NW when he was +28, which is top 40.
On a per play basis it was his seventh best with his best being 2010 against Indiana when he went +27 on 35 plays.
|39 weeks 5 days ago||I am mostly using preseason||
I am mostly using preseason expectations, adjusted for teams that have largely under or overperformed such as Wisconsin. Usually by week 4-5 there are enough games to start to get a picture of what the true in-sesason perforamnce looks like.
|39 weeks 5 days ago||Extra Value. Essentially how||
Extra Value. Essentially how many points above average performance. A 0 is an average performance across all of the FBS. Each point above is a measure of how many extra points a player/team has performed.
|39 weeks 5 days ago||Great description, drive||
Great description, drive seasonality. I also like the saw tooth of the Air Force drive with many third and fourth downs and so the odds fluxuate down by down.
|40 weeks 4 days ago||Players are rated based on||
Players are rated based on their most recent evaluation. If a player was a 5 star out of HS and then 4 star out of JC, the 4 star is the one used for that service. If the service doesn't rate them for JC then the HS is used.
The talent rank is a baseline rating using only data before entering school. I have lots of ways to look at players once they arrive, but this is measuring just prior evaluations. Since no adjustments are made to talent rank based on post-arrival performance, the Jordan Kovacs' of the world are still non-counters in this measurement.
|40 weeks 5 days ago||Post FAIL||
Completely left off the B1G's Indiana representation on the table. Has now been updated.
|42 weeks 5 days ago||The 85% is based on receiving||
The 85% is based on receiving production from receivers/tight ends only (backs excluded). Bell's return is factored into the equation separately but losing essentially an entire receiving corps and a quality quarterback, independent of everything else is not a combination that has a great history of offensive success. I would love to factor in offensive line but at this point I haven't been able to determine a quantitiative method with sufficient history to include.
|42 weeks 6 days ago||Junk time is tossed. All||
Junk time is tossed. All plays in the first half are in and plays in the second half are in if the drives either begin or end within two TDs.
|42 weeks 6 days ago||Since 2006 13 BCS teams have||
Since 2006 13 BCS teams have lost their starting QB and over 85% of their offense. Two teams (Ole Miss 2006 and Ks St 2010) improved, 3 stayed about the same and 8 teams cratered by a substantial margin. MSU could be an exception this year but history is not on their side.
|42 weeks 6 days ago||My Top10: 1.Oklahoma 2.Oregon||
My Top10: 1.Oklahoma 2.Oregon 3.Texas 4.Alabama 5.Georgia 6.USC 7.Ohio 8.Michigan 9.ND 10.LSU