spoiler alert: i linked this
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- 5 years 34 weeks
|5 years 32 weeks ago||The quality of the defense changes the scoring environment||
It's easy to see that the quality of our defense would affect our 4th down decision in the extreme cases. If we had a defense that always allowed a TD, our decision on 4th down would be to always go for it, because getting more than one score down would mean a loss. Having a defense that never allows a score would make our decision always kick, becuase a FG would be as valuable as a TD.
|5 years 32 weeks ago||This is why||
The "Denard will break down" theory doesn't hold up. He's not actually running all of the time; most of the time he's resting... but at the speed of light.
|5 years 34 weeks ago||Expected TOM and Luck||
I wonder if defenses (or offenses) can have a fumble recovery 'skill.' That is, is deviation from the 50% recovery rate more of a factor of luck or skill (I'm guessing it's mostly luck)?
Since UM was +1 in TOM and -1 in xTOM (expected turnover margin), we could figure them +2 in LOM (luckover margin). It would be interesting to see how LOM and xTOM correlate with WLM.