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- 6 years 6 weeks
|4 weeks 4 days ago||Are we sure that TE is covered?||
LoS is the 20 and it looks like he could be 'in the backfield' at the 19. Perhaps close enough to make it unclear to the defenders?
Tackles do that all the time though and are rarely flagged for having too few players on the line.
|6 years 5 weeks ago||The quality of the defense changes the scoring environment||
It's easy to see that the quality of our defense would affect our 4th down decision in the extreme cases. If we had a defense that always allowed a TD, our decision on 4th down would be to always go for it, because getting more than one score down would mean a loss. Having a defense that never allows a score would make our decision always kick, becuase a FG would be as valuable as a TD.
|6 years 5 weeks ago||This is why||
The "Denard will break down" theory doesn't hold up. He's not actually running all of the time; most of the time he's resting... but at the speed of light.
|6 years 6 weeks ago||Expected TOM and Luck||
I wonder if defenses (or offenses) can have a fumble recovery 'skill.' That is, is deviation from the 50% recovery rate more of a factor of luck or skill (I'm guessing it's mostly luck)?
Since UM was +1 in TOM and -1 in xTOM (expected turnover margin), we could figure them +2 in LOM (luckover margin). It would be interesting to see how LOM and xTOM correlate with WLM.