matcher24

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2 years 36 weeks

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Date	Title	Body
2 years 34 weeks ago	The quality of the defense changes the scoring environment	It's easy to see that the quality of our defense would affect our 4th down decision in the extreme cases. If we had a defense that always allowed a TD, our decision on 4th down would be to always go for it, because getting more than one score down would mean a loss. Having a defense that never allows a score would make our decision always kick, becuase a FG would be as valuable as a TD.
2 years 35 weeks ago	This is why	The "Denard will break down" theory doesn't hold up. He's not actually running all of the time; most of the time he's resting... but at the speed of light.
2 years 36 weeks ago	Expected TOM and Luck	I wonder if defenses (or offenses) can have a fumble recovery 'skill.' That is, is deviation from the 50% recovery rate more of a factor of luck or skill (I'm guessing it's mostly luck)? Since UM was +1 in TOM and -1 in xTOM (expected turnover margin), we could figure them +2 in LOM (luckover margin). It would be interesting to see how LOM and xTOM correlate with WLM.