it's a major award
- Member for
- 6 years 17 weeks
- View recent blog entries
- Prestige is not tangible and is disintegrating as we speak. MSU's can catch up just as LSU, FSU and Oregon have.
- Recruiting is not convincing. Ole Miss has better recruiting over the last couple years than Michigan and MSU can easily do the same. MSU currently ranks in the top 15. Where do you think they'll be if they win a national title? Being in the south is a huge advantage here.
- Competition is easier, but what kind of an elite coaches backs away from a tough league to go to an easier league?
- "It's really hard (to win at Miss St)" - Winning at Michigan is REALLY hard too. No natural recruiting backyard, hostile media, negative fans, difficult academics, irrational off-field expectations, etc.
- Lots of seniors make this a "once a generation" opportunity to take "a big pay day" - Brian rightfully disputes the assertion that Michigan will outpay Miss State.
- Hard to sustain success given "support around him" including facilities - have you SEEN MSU's facilities? http://www.hailstate.com/PhotoAlbum.dbml?&PALBID=624848&DB_OEM_ID=16800
- Michigan's "a bigger job"
|17 hours 57 min ago||It's about talent||
The rankings reflect talent but so does the degree to which JB and staff pursue and prioritize them Neither evaluation is infallible. People forget that Trey Burke and Caris LeVert were not guys that JB pursued with zest, but guys he was a bit fortunate to land when his plan A and plan Bs fell through.
The bottom line is that he is a good coach who develops the talent he gets, but he's not a miracle-worker - he still needs talent, like any other coach. In the last few years he had it, but hasn't sustained the pipeline in recruiting. So, I expect this program to drop off a bit from the heights of the last couple seasons.
|18 hours 40 min ago||I like UFRs||
Still waiting on the OSU one from...some year and the some year before that.
|1 day 8 min ago||arrogance||
I think it was naivety, not arrogance. He had previously let the DC run the defense and he assumed Michigan's talent would allow him to do the same. He knew he had a transition coming on O, but figured with Schaefer and Michigan-level talent the D would be alright.
Not letting Schaefer have full control over his assistants was his biggest mistake. Hiring GERG was his second biggest.
Agree with you on Rodriguez, but those opinions have pretty much calcified by now.
|1 day 19 min ago||Why no Saban? Where's Belichik?||
Some of the guys listed aren't ever coming here because they're in a better situation where they are.
Michigan has never stolen away a premier coach from anyone, other than Rodriguez because he was feuding with his AD.
|1 day 12 hours ago||Rankings are a strawman||
It's not about who is a 4 or 5 star it's about who JB and staff target. The guys they pursued hardest and earliest - they lost. Booker, Tate, Bates-Diop....they put in a lot of work on these guys and didn't get them.
|1 day 16 hours ago||Not really||
The 2012 recruiting class was a top 10-15 class. Not coincidentally, they had great seasons in 2012 and 2013.
Beilein is outperforming his talent, but his talent still matters.
|1 day 21 hours ago||This isn't rocket science||
Within some a healthy standard deviation you can see where the program was tracking. It was consistently positive going up from the first Novak/Douglass class to the 2012 class. The 2013 class was really good, but a notch back. The 2014 and 2015 classes have been a huge regression.
Arguing that will not be reflected in the team's performance is hoping for an exception to the rule.
|1 day 22 hours ago||That guy||
Not to be.... but have to be...
If you have $200 to light on fire, give it to a charity organization.
|1 day 22 hours ago||Guy in power is kind of a jerk||
More news at 11
|1 day 22 hours ago||I thought Michigan fans were tired||
of being treated like customers.
|1 day 22 hours ago||neither did not taking OLmen in 2010 and 2011||
The effects of recruiting take a few years.
|1 day 22 hours ago||Great Question||
The knock on the previous recruits was not needed. McGary for example, could have gone anywhere he wanted.
However, asking about Beilein's recruiting is legitimate, even if it's a nitpick. This is probably obvious, but anytime to you question or criticize Beilien it has to be qualified by stating that in the grand scheme of things we are all extremely happy with the program and our coach. All hail and so on, but back to the topic at hand.
Recruiting IS a problem. The elite 2012 class had a lot to do with the success of the last two years and the 2013 class wasn't too far off either. The 2014 class was a massive failure (neg away if you want, but it was) - unprecedented whiffing on Beilein and company's part. They got Chatman but lost a ton of their first tier kids (e.g., Bates-Diop, Booker, Tate) many of whom they were in on early, before they blew up, a la Hardaway and Robinson in years past. They also of course whiffed on some elite guys they pursued, but that's expected. They also backed off guys like Bolden and Bluitt for reason unknown (though possibly legit). It's fine to take sleepers here and there to buttress your program and fill needs (a la Albrecht, LeVert, etc.) but when you take 4 of these guys at once you're really not very likely to be in the Sweet 16 consistently.
2015 looks even worse, unfortunately. They've talked to a lot of elite kids and got close maybe on Brunson but nothing panned out. Guys like McQuaid and Granderstaff were backed off from in order to accept Duncan Robinson. Maybe that's the right call, maybe not. In any case, 2015 is looking like a total whiff. In back to back classes this is a serious dangerzone. [Sorry guys, I'm not going to buy into this hype on Jaylen Brown until it goes WAY beyond "might visit". But he would obviously change the narrative dramatically.]
If LeVert and either Walton or Irvin go pro this team is going to face a severe athleticism disadvantage in 2015-16. At this point, all of our eggs are in the 2016 basket. Otherwise it's back to the Novak/Harris/Sims era teams. Far from disaster, but if you want to see the Final 4, you better have some NBA-caliber talent.
Also, it is a shame that we seem to barely even get in on the elite in-state prospects: Josh Jackson, Ed Davis, James Young, Jaylen Johnson. I'm not a big believer in caring about the instate thing (fire Rich Rod!!!) but it does seem like these guys are walking away without much of a fight.
|2 days 13 min ago||This is getting argued both ways||
Which is why I don't buy it as an argument. Is a potential shift to the Big10 easier or a bigger challenge?
Maybe he has a grudge against Urban, but even if it exists, I doubt it's enough for him to go from the best conference in the country to... not.
Mullen would be taking a huge risk, while the potential gain is pretty insignificant.
|2 days 15 min ago||It changes||
"elite football schools" change. I think other fanbases know this better than we do.
I see no reason why MSU can't stay on top of UM - look at the way the top in-state recruits are starting to flee. Tradition only matters so much, and often not at all to an 18 year old.
I think it's more likely Mullen can keep MSU on top than turn UM around. UM won't be outpaying an SEC team, as Brian pointed out. If he's good enought to get offered the M job without any ties here, he's good enough to get paid SEC money. We're not talking about Vanderbilt here, this is the #1 team in the country with a pretty good tradition and great recruiting backyard.
Michigan can offer Mullen, I wouldn't have any problem with that, I'm just saying it's unlikely to work. That's not defeatist, because I have zero power over this situation. It's an observation and a request for objective sanity.
|2 days 16 hours ago||Right||
I posted a link to photos of the MSU football facility earlier. It's at least as nice as Schembehler.
I've also seen salary raised as a UM advantage, but MSU will match UM if Mullen keeps it up. There seems to be an assumption that we can outspend anyone but it's never happened and there's no evidence to support that it will. We make a lot of money - we also spend a lot on things that aren't football.
So, the purported Michigan advantages have been knocked down to a) prestige, b) recruiting potential, and c) less competion.
Objectively MSU is a better job. That's why we need someone with a UM connection or someone for whom this job is destination. Mullen doesn't qualify.
|2 days 17 hours ago||The argument makes more sense||
for Mark Stoops.
Mullen's ALREADY at the top of the SEC. What does he have to gain at UofM? Far less then he has to lose.
|2 days 17 hours ago||My point is||
That there's nothing institutionally that make the other SEC schools better than Miss St. There's no reason they can't BE part of the murderer's row.
If you want to argue "it's too hard" -- fine, but by that logic Nick Saban should be running for cover to go to Iowa now that Sumlin, Malzhan, Freeze, and Sumlin are putting up such a fight.
The heirarchy of the Big10 is more established than the hierarchy of the SEC. Ohio State has it's backyard. MSU has exerted it's in-state superiority. Wisconsin has the corner on smashmouth power football machine. Penn State can go toe-to-toe with Michigan on recruting to tradition.
The SEC is more jumbled because it's JUST about football, and football results are fluid. Miss State could EASILY pass LSU and TAMU in the program power rankings - not long ago it was they who struggled.
I guess that's the gist of my argument. Treating the hierarchy of today, let alone yesterday, as entrenched is a mistake. Sure, OSU and Alabama show no signs of letting go of their turf, but Miss State is on their heals right now in a way that Michigan is not. So would you be near the top of the SEC or maybe near the top of the Big10?
|2 days 18 hours ago||Mullen has no reason to come to Michigan||
Listen to Ace & Brian bumble through the reasons why Mullen would leave Miss State to come to Michigan (around the 23 min mark).
Michigan is more prestigious, yes, but what does it matter? Miss has a strong tradition too. More importantly, they play in a better conference that produces more NFL talent. They don't have to fly all over the country to recruit. Their fans like them. Their media is not out to get them. Their weather is better. Their are no academic hurdles to stress about. Nobody is going to expect them to apologize for a damn spike on the field -- their fans ring cowbells all game long!
A Mississippi state fan has a stronger case than a Michigan fan. AND, they probably pay (their players) a lot more.
The funny thing is that Brian's been bemoaning/bad-mouthing Mississippi for a long time. Recruits seem to want to go there but this is viewed as being inexplicable. It shouldn't be. Every recruit who has chosen them over Michigan has been right (from the football side anyway, which is presumably the main issue for elite recruits.)
Mullen has a good thing going at MSU. There's nothing stopping them from stepping up to the next echelon like TAMU, Auburn, and LSU have done. Things change quickly but there's nothing that prevents them from being a perrenial top 10 team there under Mullen. Nothing works against him anymore than it works against Saban, Malzhan, Freeze, or Sumlin. It won't be easy, but guess what - topping MSU, Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU from Michigan isn't easy either.
|2 days 20 hours ago||Good preview. / Bielfeldt||
I like keeping Donnal as the nominal starter until Doyle actually proves it against real competition. Doyle does seem a lot more Morganesque and without a more physical 4, we probably need that. But we don't know enough about any of these freshman yet to be sure of anything.
I would guess Bielfeldt does play more than 10 mpg. The foul rate can and probably will plummet. That was basically his job - come in and push people around to buy time until Horford/Morgan returned. "They can't call fouls every time."
Whatever his limitations are, these types of seniors tend to play, if for no other reason than to show the younger guys what you are "supposed to do". Bielfeldt at least knows where he is supposed to be, which may not be the case for our freshman. Morgan's most important job was boxing out and setting screens - Bielfeldt can do those things. He may not be tall but he's thick.
Against Kentucky, Bielfeldt played 4 minutes to Spike's 7. Both guys are limited athleticially, but clearly there is a role for such players if they bring something else to the table. With Spike it's shooting. With Max it could be positional awareness.
|2 days 20 hours ago||He was covered as a wing.||
But I think he belongs here until he proves otherwise. Wilson is a bit of a flex guy. His role depends on how Donnal/Doyle emerge. But he brings a skill (shot-blocking) that could be useful to Michigan right away, and that shot-blocking is going to be far more valuble at the 5 than the 4.
I see the argument: Chatman/Dawkins at the '4' vs Donnal/Doyle at the '5' is just a bunch of freshman and Bielfeldt is around. But, IMO the 4 spot looks a lot more promising, and Irvin can still get a good bit of run there, if need be. Bottomline is that Beilein has preferred to go small again and again. It seems unlikely that he'd shift to something he's not comfortable with unless he has proven players (a la McGary/Morgan/Horford frontline) to do it with.
|2 days 20 hours ago||The argument against Morris||
-Wasn't heavily recruited (I know, I know, everyone thought he was a UM lock, but since when does that stop elite recruits from getting recruited by anybody else of note.)
-Has looked awful through 2 years
-Borges recruits track record is bad
At some point the recruiting rankings have to be displaced by available evidence.
Not to say we should give up on Morris. He has a good arm and can run. He's probably the best we have. But expecting him to be good in 2015 is a leap.
The best thing that could have happened to Morris would have been a red-shirt last year or this year. That might still be true next year.
|2 days 22 hours ago||IN THE 90s!||
You and Hoke are two peas in a pod. Moeller never gets enough credit for moderning the offense, but guess what - football didn't stop there. It kept going and, if anything, evolved even faster. Your talking about 20 years ago, man.
Look to the future or get passed by those who do. Even Jim Harbaugh is running a bunch of read plays that leave defenders unblocked.
|2 days 22 hours ago||No, it's not||
Indiana is the only game where Michigan will be favored and even that's no slam dunk.
|2 days 22 hours ago||??||
Who is assuming "most" will transfer. I'm just saying it's not going to be zero.
We've seen a number of 5th year guys go in the past. It won't take much for a player, especially an out-of-state player, to see a coaching transition and poor prospects for success in 2015 to choose to move to a better program. You think these guys haven't noticed what Furman, Rawls, etc. are doing away from AA? Is it better to sit out a year at an Oklahoma State, a Duke, a Washington or play through whatever transition happens in AA? Particularly for guys who haven't red-shirted yet. James Ross has options, and frankly, might be better off transferring to Tennessee (or whatever). RJS has been buried but has talent. How would Dennis Norfleet look in a functional spread offense? These OLmen would probably enjoy getting some capable coaching. You get the point...
I actually think Freshman and Soph are less likely to leave than veterans, because they might be convinced to see the light at the end of the tunnel. For the vets, it's their last chance to write a story with a happy ending.
Some will stay, for sure. Probably most will. My point is that there are damn good reasons for some to leave, so asserting that the class size "tops out" at any number is pretty ridiculous right now.
Hiring somebody like Harbaugh would help retention. Signing somebody like Frost (scheme change) or Schiano (notorious asshole) would not. We just don't know; asserting otherwise is well...very optimistic.
|2 days 22 hours ago||why?||
A stable mid-level Pac12 team > unstable low-level Big 10 team
|2 days 23 hours ago||while true...||
It's beside the point. It's not like Michigan doesn't move guys around. The issue is that they are too stubborn about 1990s-style football to put Furman or Thomas at LB. They still want to 'get bigger'.
The entire VISION of the program is misplaced.
|2 days 23 hours ago||when the new coach comes in||
He will look at the 55 LBs we recruited and say "Hu....insteresting" and then have to punt on recruiting the position for a year or two just like Hoke did when he saw Rodriguez 89 WR recruits.
|2 days 23 hours ago||This changes everything.||
|2 days 23 hours ago||Looking backward||
See, this is the kind of crap Dave Brandon thinks. This program will go nowhere if it's goals are 1990s offenses and defenses. You'd be better off looking to the 30s when Michigan was innovative instead of backward-looking.
|2 days 23 hours ago||2015 Pessimism||
Talking about this year is pointless, but talking about next year is too. Until we know the coach, and the returning players, it's ridiculous to make a prediction, even if it's an upside one.
8-4 is a pipe dream. The "I'm not worried about UNC and UVA" line and throwing out 8-4 are both indicitave of the kind of delusional arrogance that Michigan fans are criticized for. Those programs are clearly superior if you set aside the intangible "prestige". Maybe even if not.
Michigan can't just roll out of bed and beat up on Utah and Oregon State and BYU. Utah's been a better program for at least a decade now. It's not 1992...
Though you wouldn't know it from our cast of "big boy" personnel. Our QBs are garbage or young or both. Our skill position guys are stunningly slow. Our OL has not been developed in the least, meaning they're essentially all going to be red-shirt freshman even if their college transcripts and beards say otherwise.
Nobody has any idea if Morgan, Bolden, and Charlton are coming back or not. Maybe Kugler, Kalis, Canteen and Green want a program with some stability and sense. The continued assumption that we will retain 100% of meaningful talent is bordering on delusional, uncharacteristic of this usually-logical blog. This recruiting class tops out at [insert number for maximum allowed recruiting class], not 16.
I won't dispute that our defensive talent is solid overall but it's not enough to go 8-4. The otherside of the ball is such a giant cluster. Our D would have to be a lot better than it has been the last 3 years. Since I (still) think Mattison and company are solid coaches, expecting a leap requires the same sort of logic that had you talking yourself into Nussmeir as savior for 2014. We won't improve significantly on D, regardless of what transpires in the next 3 months.
The reality of this Michigan program is that it would be a huge success to make a bowl next year. Any bowl. The next head coach should be considered a success if he can drive this Michigan program back to competancy - it's 7 to 9 wins a year. We can worry about competing for titles when we're not a lower-division Big 10 team.
Alum96 is right. There is no reason to expect 2015 to be that much better and the schedule is harder for a team attempting to swim upstream.