that makes one of us
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- Harris: "Ceiling: Very high. Guy was on the verge of five star status after unstoppable junior year. Could be elite."
- Canteen: "Ceiling: High. "Oh, wide open."
- Chesson: "Ceiling: High. Probably lacks the elite speed or change of direction to be the third pick in the NFL draft. Can easily become a 70-80 catch intermediate to long security blanket."
- Darboh: "Ceiling: Moderate-plus. "Not a burner," but looks like a high quality #2 in an ideal situation."
|16 hours 14 min ago||Agree with you||
but Omameh's performance was bad enough that most people thought his departure was a good thing and the OL play "couldn't get worse".
Experience matters, sure, but this year's OL is less experienced than last years. On the high end, you had two NFL bound 5th year seniors and now you're most veteran guy are (at best) two RS Jrs who have only a handful of starts to their name. On the low end (least-experienced) you're starting a true freshman LT compared to RS Freshman last year. In aggregate, the starting lineup this year is less experienced than last years.
So, if you acknowledge that this OL is less experienced, do you also expect it to perform worse? I do not, because I expect the coaching to be better and the problems that last year attempted to mask to be faced head-on.
|16 hours 54 min ago||Great Post||
Very good logic and I agree.
But have to ask...how do you explain Patrick Omameh looking good as a red-shirt freshman in Rodriguez scheme and then looking totally foolish and inept as a 5th year senior under Borges, and now poised to be an NFL-starter for TB?
|18 hours 52 min ago||Headphones/Ear Protection!||
Hopefully this is obvious, but maybe not since you didn't mention.
The most important thing is ear protection. Football stadiums are extremely loud (even at Michigan). Even minor league baseball is loud to a 1 year old. You can buy pretty cheap over the ear covers to protect your kid at a wide variety of places.
Otherwise, it depends on your kid. You should know better than anyone else if they can sit around people watching for 4 hours. Most kids can't and will require several walks around the stadium and other distractions. For them, it's not much more interesting than church or a graduation or whatever.
|18 hours 54 min ago||Much easier||
Before 9 months (give or take of course) is actually pretty easy as long as you have bottles and don't mind a few interruptions.
A one or two year old is completely different. Most of them require a lot of attention and couldn't care less about the mass of distant dudes tumbling into each other for hours on end, with lots of nothing in between the action.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Imagine last season,||
but replace Indiana and Ohio State performances with repeats of Nebraska and MSU.
|1 day 9 hours ago||suggestion: ignore the stars||
The OL ratings aren't especially accurate compared to other positions. Maybe for the upside/NFL potential they are useful, but on the college level there are guys like Molk who are awesome but can barely make an NFL roster. They are even less useful if you are trying to turn a high school kid into college starter within 12 months. It's just not what the recruiting rankings measure, even if it was possible.
What is going on is that we have no upperclassmen. Recruiting 5 stars doesn't fix that. Once the problem (caused first by Carr then by Rodriguez, then by Brandon) Michigan/Hoke/Borges only chance was to throw massive scholarship numbers at the problem and hope they found the 1 out of 10 4-star caliber recruits that are ready to play at an average level by their 2nd year...and find several of them. They chose not to do that in 2012, now here we are.
Cross your fingers and hope that the coaching is good, the scheme is understanding, and things get better in the years to come.
Brian's advice on most of the class of 2012 and 2013 OLmen is "ask again next year". That is completely correct and the only fair thing to do, regardless of rankings.
|1 day 9 hours ago||moreso||
It's the product of not recruiting enough linemen. The 2012 class needed to produce starters and produce them quickly.
|1 day 10 hours ago||Of course it can be worse||
We lost 2 NFL tackles and changed coaches and scheme.
Will it? Maybe not. Hopefully not. I think, by a bit, not.
But CAN it? of course.
|1 day 10 hours ago||Sooo much better than last year's preview||
Last year I ranted about how uncharecteristically illogical and laden with faith-based optimism the preview was. This year I mostly nodded my head at the appropriate level of skepticism and doubt.
The rankings might still be a smidge too high. I'd have given the interior another 1.5 instead of 2, because the second one of the tackles falters or is hurt the interior loses Magnuson or Glasgow and then it's back to the backups who, for all the nominal increase in depth, remain a walk-on, a true sophomore, and a dude recruited by Rodriguez who sat behind a couple walk-ons and a true freshman last year. Anyway, differentiating between the tackle situation and interior situation is pretty pointless.
The reasons for optimism are not based on player development or talent, but a scheme that recognizes the OL's limitations and uses plays to mitigate them.
|1 day 16 hours ago||I thought the same thing||
Does that mean Darboh will work from the slot in some cases, with Funchess and Chesson outside?
|2 days 6 hours ago||agree with your conclusion||
but your argument is weak
"we have some good, experienced receivers" does not equal "Chesson has played more snaps, technically, than Canteen who is a freshman". You're either trying back out of what you said or what you said was the most banal thing ever: you can't be inexperienced relative to a true freshman.
|2 days 12 hours ago||15 career receptions makes him inexperienced||
The fact that this is even being arrgued is maybe the most telling thing thing about the inexperience of the unit.
Funchess was a TE, so the most experienced WR who has played WR on the roster has FIFTEEN career receptions, has only played one year, and was behind Gallon, Reynolds, and Jackson on the depth chart for the bulk of that one year.
Ben Gedeon (more meaningful snaps?) and Terry Richardson (more practices) might be more experienced than Chesson.
|2 days 12 hours ago||1. You keep repeating the||
1. You keep repeating the same thing I am saying back to me which makes me wonder who you're arguing with. My "win" is only irt questioning the undisputed unanimity of your collective opinion. The season hasn't been played. Nothing is iron-clad. No one is saying otherwise.
2. Everyone is inexperienced and unproven. That's the whole point. A debatable topic was a non-debate. In a world where minutia is dissected, that is notable.
3. The irony is that I may be putting too much stock in Mgoblog's opinion relative to the recruiting sites. When I wrote about Darboh's upside it was based in part on the mgoprofile of incoming freshman, specifically the ceiling category.
The point here is not to diss anyone for innacurate predictions. If there is one, other than just tooting my own horn for fun, it is to be critical of preseason hype when objective evidence (played behind Joe Reynolds and Jeremy Jackson, has zero career receptions, was hurt, is basically a RS freshman) warrants a healthy does of skepticism.
|2 days 13 hours ago||There are always the nutters||
A portion of the fanbase is going to say 10 wins no matter what. If we ever get to 10 wins these same people will be saying UNDEFEATED. They are the lunatic fringe. On Mgoblog, the lunatic fringe make up a larger percentage of the fanbase than in "real life", because self-selection...but they can still be tuned out.
Then there is the garden-variety rational optimisim also known as homerism. The OP exibits this. Vegas has over/under posted every year. Some years there is good reason to expect to go over it, but if you are over it every single year by a couple, then you're a homer. It's ignoring the minus in the +/- 2 games standard deviation.
This year Vegas says 8 wins. Their math says 7 is more likely than 9. If you think more you're an optmist (rational or irrational). I'm starting to think more.
|2 days 14 hours ago||simple||
It's not really as complicated as you're making it. I'm tooting my own horn because I was proven (very tentatively) right in questioning an opinion you ALL held. No one else seemed to even think it was seriously worth debating, and neither did people in the comments section. I was on an island, so to speak.
Like Ace said "predictions are hard", so I don't think it was a stupid prediction or that you guys will look stupid (as Ace said), even if you do end up being wrong. However, I would have expected at least one of you guys to question the insidery bits a bit more. Mostly because there were a whole bunch of tangible reasons to do so in this case. Darboh is inexperienced, coming off an injury, and his recruiting profile indicated he had less upside than many of the other WRs on the roster. Especially when they hype train for Jerald Robinson wasn't that long ago, there should be (IMO) a little more skepticism towards the insidery bits.
|2 days 14 hours ago||whaddup pot||
but, I have to admit that's funny
|2 days 15 hours ago||Chesson and others||
You have a very low bar for "experienced". Chesson had 15 catches and Norfleet had 6, everyone else zero (or damn close to it.) I'd call our DE, LBs, and CBs experienced but WR is probably the least experienced position group on this team - yes, even compared to OL. At least on OL there are some people who have started games at their positions.
I'm far more confident in the WR, due to talent and what they've shown at other positions, but experience is the big thing the unit lacks. It's why so many of us thought/think Canteen can make an immediate impact even as a (more) raw freshman.
Chesson is also more experienced than Darboh, but nobody is making a big deal out of these technicalities because he is still very inexperienced.
|2 days 15 hours ago||I like your annual post||
Keep it up. Always overoptimistic by 1-2 wins, but in the face of history you are resilitent. I like that.
|2 days 15 hours ago||This QB preview post is DO||
Dead-on, accurate, throwing darts - etc. Brady Hoke is proud of your execution.
|2 days 16 hours ago||Absolutely Right||
But also, we have eyes and brains. We know what we saw last year and we remember that a lot of the hype from seasons past was total BS.
|2 days 16 hours ago||Here's where we disagree||
My original comment was "man you all agree on Darboh - and I don't think you're right". I thought Darboh was overhyped and listed the many reasons why. I found it interesting that not one of your panel cared to bother seriously arguing Darboh's spot. So, I gave my opinion.
You responded to me questiong the consensus by saying "make a prediction tough guy", which wasn't really my point, but OK, I played along.
But yeah I agree nothing is set yet, as I said in my first post in this thread. All we can say is that it is valid to question putting Darboh as unanimous #2 WR.
|2 days 16 hours ago||whose fighting?||
I just give my opinion man. I don't go around insinuating people are "blind squirrels".
|2 days 17 hours ago||True and No||
I adressed that when I said "even though there is a lot (all) of the season left and the depth chart probably doesn't mean a whole lot."
|2 days 17 hours ago||sticking to that BTW||
Canteen, like other freshman before him, has to a steeper learning curve. There's a good chance he's being held back by things like "knowing what I'm supposed to do on this play" and "how to block". But I think he'll be more productive as a receiver than the others.
|2 days 17 hours ago||we do?||
Besides our stud converted TE, Norfleet is the most experienced receiver and he is a pseudo-RB who has mostly caught screens. The other guys...might have more tackles than receptions combined. This WR group is anything but experienced.
|2 days 17 hours ago||WR situation||
In that Targets Aquired thread I disputed the unanimous opinion that Darboh was the guy for a number of reasons, but mostly the fact that there are better complements to Funchess on the roster. I was negged and critiqued of course. "shallow and pedantic" was a response. That comment wasn't. This comment is, because I am tooting my own horn, even though there is a lot (all) of the season left and the depth chart probably doesn't mean a whole lot.
I've also been disputing the "Canteen is a slot" argument. A good offense is constantly moving their top target around. Funchess should be moving around just as Hemingway and Gallon did - lining up outside one play and inside the next.
|3 days 10 hours ago||It actually does||
The players are trying harder in a close game. The coaches are trying harder too - you can tell because their 1st stringers aren't in anymore.
Michigan's second stringers are better than Miami's. Especially when Miami's second stringers want the game to end just as badly as Brady Hoke. "Justice Hayes dives forward for two yards" - that ain't getting Shane ready for 2015.
|3 days 10 hours ago||I like this angle||
And I agree - they are people. But Shane seems like an intelligent guy. He knows he's Devin's backup. He knows the value of a red-shirt and what it could mean for him. So, if you phrase it as "you're first man in, but if we don't need you we're going to try to get you the option of coming back in 2017 as a senior. It means skipping some snaps in the 4th quarter of Miami. You OK with that?" -- I'd like to think Shane would be OK with that.
The chinstrap argument was not mine, but I agree with it. I think it depends. Is it one or two plays where you are handing it off? If so, keep the red-shirt. Is it an entire drive against MSU? Burn it.
|3 days 10 hours ago||Seems like a false choice||
Nobody wants a QB who is unprepared. The argument that he'll suddenly become prepared by playing against terrible teams' 2nd stringers is what warrants questioning.
|3 days 11 hours ago||Doesn't mean I'm wrong||
I don't think Shane is going to red-shirt, because the chances of Devin making it through the entire season without getting dinged are slim. However, if Devin does stay healthy, I I think 95% of Shane's preparation and development are going to happen in practice. The in game stuff, yeah it helps, but it's marginal. Mostly it's about getting comfortable when the lights are on. Shane's already been through that.
Michigan's 2nd string D is a helluva lot better than App State, Miami and Rugers'. That's what we're talkking about here. I don't buy that Shane is going to learn a lot from facing dejected defenders who just want to get off the field. And mostly he'll be handing it off to try to kill the clock anyway.