Again I thought a suspension should have been enough. The thing here that really put Michigan in a tough spot is the disgruntled former employee (Dudek allegedly) kept feeding the NCAA information as the investigation went on.
There was always going to be probation, it is one of the only "real" penalties you can give out that isn't a real penalty. I take a lot of solace in how the NCAA has commented on the two investigations. With this one they issued a separate statement about how "it's not about burgers". Contrast that with signgate stuff where they have said that Michigan "has been a fully cooperative partner" and "the title is clean". Those statements kind of jibe with the rumor I have heard that the NCAA was way more gung ho about the burgers than Stalions.
This is a reasonable take imo, I think most of the teeth gnashing from this board comes from the thought that a 3 game suspension should have been sufficient punishment for a violation of this nature which I agree with. The NCAA kind of made this into a big standoff when they turned down a 4 game suspension as a negotiated resolution.
How did people think this would go exactly? Harbaugh leaves Michigan, takes most of the staff with him, Michigan conveniently throws former staff under bus, avoids punishment, previous staff uses lawyer to issue statement proclaiming innocence, we all hug at the championship reunion in 10 years.
Eh I mean they are 1 year show causes all for guys not here anymore. They are purely symbolic penalties which is good for us because they don't hinder our efforts to win future football games.
Slap on the wrist and negotiated resolution and that is likely how the sign stuff ends too. Michigan is going to get a fine, scholarship reduction, and a extra probation while Harbaugh, Stalions, and Partridge get 100 year show causes.
QB, RB, LB: These are, emphatically, not needs. And, barring some kind of extreme value (like Penix available at 61), I’d really not like to see these positions drafted before round four, preferably round five.
I don't think Penix is an extreme value at 61. There are 4 QBs worth a 1st or 2nd round pick and then everyone else is backup/lottery ticket territory.
As for the Lions needs I think CB is the top need, they have tweener types on the roster but they need a true long term solution at outside corner. Past that iOL is the next need, quite thin at that position and is going to be very expensive unless they can get some cost controlled help there. I don't mind paying tackles but at G I would prefer to allocate big contracts elsewhere.
It won't look like Army, it would probably look more like the 2013-14 Auburn offense with Nick Marshall, the Army comp is more from a philosophical perspective and a more accessible reference point for the average fan.
I believe in the feasibility of the Orji offense but for it to work you have to COMMIT to it. It won't work if you only go halfway with it. What does it look like to commit to it, it means 15 QB runs, treating everything past the 50 as 4 down territory. You basically have to be a suped up version of Army. Does Michigan have the ability to pull that off? Yes. Will they? That is the question and there is no backup QB on the roster that can step in and run the offense if Orji gets hurt and you can not just "switch" offenses like NCAA 14 game.
Essegian grew up a big Michigan fan so he may be more likely to be ok starting over and spending extra time at Michigan. Wolf apparently almost walked on at Michigan so he may another case of wanting to here.
Impossible to put a scale in place when we don't know the roster yet. But it is year 1 and I presume the coaching improvement alone is worth a few games. I would say the expectation should be flirting with .500. That said if you can see improvement and a clear proof on concept it would be a success. An NCAA berth is an A++.
Michigan has Big Ten $, are in The Club (won a National Title), has had recent success, and is enough of a brand to entice solid recruits. There are a lot of coaches who would be enticed by the Michigan job. The NIL will not match the blue bloods for sure, but there is enough out there to out pace the Iowa State's/Marquette's/Houston's/Creighton's of the world. The portal is an issue is you want to be portal guy but if you get a coach who is not portal reliant but rather uses it to patch a hole it shouldn't be a huge obstacle.
The Jon Scheyer thing was a bit from the roundtable. Regardless of all the chicken littling on this site the Michigan job is a top 15-20 job. Juwan made it seem worse than it is.
I know Michigan won't hire him but he would be a good hire. As I said the thing he got in trouble for is legal now. This isn't a coach with a criminal past like a Chris Beard.
The only good idea Craig has presented for head coach is Will Wade. The thing he got fired for is not only ok now it is literally a necessity for the position.
As far as Sam's JB+LaVall take: LaVall Jordan was Beilein's right hand man for a long time, what is one more year going to accomplish? Jordan would be a catastrophically bad hire.
Honestly I was going to mention Lloyd as a candidate but then he signed a $5.5m per year extension. It's gonna take Kentucky/UNC basketball type money to pry him out of there now.
I still think he will go between 10-20 so I don't think I am underrating him. It is just that Graham is a generic 1st round DT and his reportedly short arms will cap his draft stock, Grant has the potential to be a unicorn. 6'4" 340 pounder who already has pass rush chops as a true sophomore, those just don't come along every draft.
For 2025 I would consider Grant/Graham/Johnson to be locks barring something completely unforeseen. Loveland I would put in the "more likely than not" group. Moore is a good call but I wouldn't count him yet, need to see more production first. Edwards I would put in the "longer shot" group. I would wager that you are more likely to see someone blow up and be a first rounder than Edwards.
Bonus hot take: Grant will be the first Michigan guy off the board in his draft. His upside is so much higher than Graham's that after a full year of being a starter he's possibly going top 5.
I liked the hire when it was made but we have enough of a sample to know this isn't going to work. Don't let a dead cat bounce prolong what is eventually going to happen.
I don't think he is either, next year's roster is going to look like a mid level 1 bid league roster, but that said a lot of bad teams steal wins and post .500 or so records. If Warde is still AD a bad but lucky team could have enough of a W/L improvement to justify keeping him in the mind of the one lazy guy who makes the call.
My genuine worry is they retain Howard and he cobbles together a 17-14 type team that the AD sees as enough progress (Hey, a 9 win improvement! Arrow back up!) to retain him another year.
I've been told it's in regards to a toxic workplace environment within the athletic department. There are many ignored HR complaints within the department and Juwan is one of the main culprits. It will be negative press and a bad look that rivals will try to jam into the NCAA puzzle but it isn't NCAA related.
Sam is a company man, unfortunately he is just repeating AD talking points to prime the masses for Howard's retention. Basically basketball doesn't exist until fall 2025 at the earliest.
She wouldn't even make the roster over the walk-ons. While she is an incredibly skilled player, athletically should would cooked on every defensive possession and would never get a shot up on offense with a remote chance of going in. We can just appreciate her skillset for what it is without saying she could hang on a D1 mens court which she would never be able to do.
Regular icing is crucial. It is important to get your mobility back because I have seen more recent studies show that people with previous ankle injuries tear ACLs at a higher rate due to the lost mobility in their ankle. I learned this because my wife tore her ACL playing flag football last year and read a ton of stuff about ACLs and recovery. She had sprained her ankle twice in the two years before the ACL so that info stuck in my brain.
Fun game, I'll play. Over means taking them before the projection and under means after since I view the draft in terms of points and later rounds are less points.
WR | Projection: 2nd Round - Over, already moving up draft boards, doesn't fit with the Lions roster but if he slides I could see them taking a shot anyways
LB | Projection: 3rd Round - 68 is push territory for me. LB positional value drops him a bit. I would want the Lions to pass because we don't need another LB that can't execute a zone drop
CB | Projection: 3rd Round - Under, classic "it only takes one team" guy but I think size and age will spook people enough to push him into the back half of round 3
IOL | Projection: 3rd Round - Under, Guards aren't that valuable and his injury will scare teams. One of the few guys on this list I would actually want the Lions to take especially if he's there on day 3.
TE | Projection: 6th Round - Over, Opposite of Corum, I would bet my life savings/house Barner is gone before 192. Definitely ok with a Lions pick here as the 2nd TE has been an issue for while now
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - Over, someone will take a flyer on his measurables earlier than this. We are reaching the point of the draft I have no strong Lions opinions on taking guys. Lottery ticket territory
I meant that if they hypothetically played an NHL schedule of 82 games they would be the team that would be off to a slow start but at some point would get "hot" because the underlying metrics are strong.
One would think that over the course of a long season (82 games) Michigan would end up near the top of the season standings due to regression to the mean. They are the kind of team where if you are a higher seed you don't want to draw them but if you were a lower seed you would want to play Michigan. A bit of a paradoxical team.
He will be drafted but I would be very surprised if it is before Day 3. His 2023 film compared to his 2022 film makes him look like he lost a step, whether that was coming back from injury or if he actually lost a step doesn't matter to NFL scouts. To us he is Blake the Great, but to scouts he is an undersized RB who has multiple injuries, a lot of wear on the tires, and the most recent film is worse than the prior film.
But my goodness, our basketball "fans" are incredibly fickle. So, first off, Michigan ticket holders -- do better.
People in power will continue to put out the level of product the fans tolerate, the only power fans have is whether they attend games or not. I'm glad the arena was full with an embarrassing amount of Purdue fans because it shows the AD fans won't tolerate this level of performance.
If you collectively bargain you can cap income. I don't know if he going to that extent with his comments but I think the ultimate endpoint is a collectively bargained cap.
They are 105th on Kenpom and 8-18, that is not the fault of Warde and admissions. There are less talented teams performing far better than this team. That's coaching. Give John Beilein this exact roster and they are a 6-8 seed shaping up to be a team that is gonna give a higher seed absolute hell in the second round.
He seemed to be a prized candidate when we hired him, by the NBA at least. Is this just a situation where we thought he'd be great but turns out he's just not a good coach?
I don't get how people don't get this at this point. Coaching hires are crapshoots with very rare exceptions. Sometimes good ideas fail and bad ideas work. Juwan at the time seemed like a good idea given the circumstances and it didn't work. The roster management, the defensive coaching, and culture have all dropped to basically rock bottom in year 5. You just keep trying good ideas and one will work, maybe even the next one.
3. Both Beilein and Harbaugh had very rough seasons. Beilein in his 7th season (2014) went 16-16 and Harbaugh went 2-4 in 2020. Both coaches turned things around immediately afterward.
The difference is that both Harbaugh and Beilein had long track records of success prior to the down years. Also Harbaugh had the backdrop of a global pandemic and a "will they/won't they" play off-season. Beilein's down season saw the bullshit McGary suspension before the year AND Caris LeVert season ending foot fracture early in the season. That is two All America level guys he lost and still put together a watchable competent basketball team. While Juwan did have the off-season heart procedure this was a team picked to finish 11th so being bad was not a surprise to anyone.
They are 8-18 and underdogs in every remaining game. Even if they improve by 10 wins next year, which to be clear is not guaranteed and would a massive improvement, they would still likely not be a tournament team. That is how far away we are at this point. There are lots of quality coaches at lower levels or equal levels that can be poached. TJ Otzelberger is top of the list, McDermott at Creighton is reportedly looking around, Dusty May is gonna be looking, Mitch Henderson at Princeton is worth looking at, Darian DeVries at Drake has a .730 win % and 3 NCAA tournaments in 6 seasons and is only 48. Point is there are fair number of coaches I'd take my chances with over Juwan going forward.
Recent Comments
Again I thought a suspension should have been enough. The thing here that really put Michigan in a tough spot is the disgruntled former employee (Dudek allegedly) kept feeding the NCAA information as the investigation went on.
There was always going to be probation, it is one of the only "real" penalties you can give out that isn't a real penalty. I take a lot of solace in how the NCAA has commented on the two investigations. With this one they issued a separate statement about how "it's not about burgers". Contrast that with signgate stuff where they have said that Michigan "has been a fully cooperative partner" and "the title is clean". Those statements kind of jibe with the rumor I have heard that the NCAA was way more gung ho about the burgers than Stalions.
This is a reasonable take imo, I think most of the teeth gnashing from this board comes from the thought that a 3 game suspension should have been sufficient punishment for a violation of this nature which I agree with. The NCAA kind of made this into a big standoff when they turned down a 4 game suspension as a negotiated resolution.
How did people think this would go exactly? Harbaugh leaves Michigan, takes most of the staff with him, Michigan conveniently throws former staff under bus, avoids punishment, previous staff uses lawyer to issue statement proclaiming innocence, we all hug at the championship reunion in 10 years.
Eh I mean they are 1 year show causes all for guys not here anymore. They are purely symbolic penalties which is good for us because they don't hinder our efforts to win future football games.
Slap on the wrist and negotiated resolution and that is likely how the sign stuff ends too. Michigan is going to get a fine, scholarship reduction, and a extra probation while Harbaugh, Stalions, and Partridge get 100 year show causes.
I don't think Penix is an extreme value at 61. There are 4 QBs worth a 1st or 2nd round pick and then everyone else is backup/lottery ticket territory.
As for the Lions needs I think CB is the top need, they have tweener types on the roster but they need a true long term solution at outside corner. Past that iOL is the next need, quite thin at that position and is going to be very expensive unless they can get some cost controlled help there. I don't mind paying tackles but at G I would prefer to allocate big contracts elsewhere.
It won't look like Army, it would probably look more like the 2013-14 Auburn offense with Nick Marshall, the Army comp is more from a philosophical perspective and a more accessible reference point for the average fan.
I believe in the feasibility of the Orji offense but for it to work you have to COMMIT to it. It won't work if you only go halfway with it. What does it look like to commit to it, it means 15 QB runs, treating everything past the 50 as 4 down territory. You basically have to be a suped up version of Army. Does Michigan have the ability to pull that off? Yes. Will they? That is the question and there is no backup QB on the roster that can step in and run the offense if Orji gets hurt and you can not just "switch" offenses like NCAA 14 game.
Essegian grew up a big Michigan fan so he may be more likely to be ok starting over and spending extra time at Michigan. Wolf apparently almost walked on at Michigan so he may another case of wanting to here.
Impossible to put a scale in place when we don't know the roster yet. But it is year 1 and I presume the coaching improvement alone is worth a few games. I would say the expectation should be flirting with .500. That said if you can see improvement and a clear proof on concept it would be a success. An NCAA berth is an A++.
Michigan just beat Louisville head to head for a coach, where are all the folks on this site who said Michigan wasn’t a top 20 job?
Due to the Tennessee suit the NCAA isn't enforcing any of it's NIL rules and given the way that suit is likely to go they never will be able to again.
Michigan has Big Ten $, are in The Club (won a National Title), has had recent success, and is enough of a brand to entice solid recruits. There are a lot of coaches who would be enticed by the Michigan job. The NIL will not match the blue bloods for sure, but there is enough out there to out pace the Iowa State's/Marquette's/Houston's/Creighton's of the world. The portal is an issue is you want to be portal guy but if you get a coach who is not portal reliant but rather uses it to patch a hole it shouldn't be a huge obstacle.
The Jon Scheyer thing was a bit from the roundtable. Regardless of all the chicken littling on this site the Michigan job is a top 15-20 job. Juwan made it seem worse than it is.
I know Michigan won't hire him but he would be a good hire. As I said the thing he got in trouble for is legal now. This isn't a coach with a criminal past like a Chris Beard.
The only good idea Craig has presented for head coach is Will Wade. The thing he got fired for is not only ok now it is literally a necessity for the position.
As far as Sam's JB+LaVall take: LaVall Jordan was Beilein's right hand man for a long time, what is one more year going to accomplish? Jordan would be a catastrophically bad hire.
The headline was fine
Maybe the OP meant Phil Martelli Jr who just went 20-13 in his first season at Bryant and beat Dusty May and FAU this season.
Honestly I was going to mention Lloyd as a candidate but then he signed a $5.5m per year extension. It's gonna take Kentucky/UNC basketball type money to pry him out of there now.
I still think he will go between 10-20 so I don't think I am underrating him. It is just that Graham is a generic 1st round DT and his reportedly short arms will cap his draft stock, Grant has the potential to be a unicorn. 6'4" 340 pounder who already has pass rush chops as a true sophomore, those just don't come along every draft.
For 2025 I would consider Grant/Graham/Johnson to be locks barring something completely unforeseen. Loveland I would put in the "more likely than not" group. Moore is a good call but I wouldn't count him yet, need to see more production first. Edwards I would put in the "longer shot" group. I would wager that you are more likely to see someone blow up and be a first rounder than Edwards.
Bonus hot take: Grant will be the first Michigan guy off the board in his draft. His upside is so much higher than Graham's that after a full year of being a starter he's possibly going top 5.
Darian DeVries at Drake, longtime Creighton assistant and now winning ~75% of his games over a 6 year tenure.
(My actual #1 is Otzelberger but that seems unlikely)
Wikipedia is an acceptable source for a message board. We ain't writing term papers here.
I liked the hire when it was made but we have enough of a sample to know this isn't going to work. Don't let a dead cat bounce prolong what is eventually going to happen.
I don't think he is either, next year's roster is going to look like a mid level 1 bid league roster, but that said a lot of bad teams steal wins and post .500 or so records. If Warde is still AD a bad but lucky team could have enough of a W/L improvement to justify keeping him in the mind of the one lazy guy who makes the call.
My genuine worry is they retain Howard and he cobbles together a 17-14 type team that the AD sees as enough progress (Hey, a 9 win improvement! Arrow back up!) to retain him another year.
I've been told it's in regards to a toxic workplace environment within the athletic department. There are many ignored HR complaints within the department and Juwan is one of the main culprits. It will be negative press and a bad look that rivals will try to jam into the NCAA puzzle but it isn't NCAA related.
Fire Warde and then Fire Juwan! Lets go!!!!!!
Sam is a company man, unfortunately he is just repeating AD talking points to prime the masses for Howard's retention. Basically basketball doesn't exist until fall 2025 at the earliest.
She wouldn't even make the roster over the walk-ons. While she is an incredibly skilled player, athletically should would cooked on every defensive possession and would never get a shot up on offense with a remote chance of going in. We can just appreciate her skillset for what it is without saying she could hang on a D1 mens court which she would never be able to do.
Regular icing is crucial. It is important to get your mobility back because I have seen more recent studies show that people with previous ankle injuries tear ACLs at a higher rate due to the lost mobility in their ankle. I learned this because my wife tore her ACL playing flag football last year and read a ton of stuff about ACLs and recovery. She had sprained her ankle twice in the two years before the ACL so that info stuck in my brain.
Feel like this comment by WindyCityBlue in the Ryan Field thread is rally pushing the no politics envelope.
NFLite
Fun game, I'll play. Over means taking them before the projection and under means after since I view the draft in terms of points and later rounds are less points.
QB | Projection: 1st Round - Over, gone by the mid teens. Lions would unironically be an ideal for JJ as they could "redshirt" him
51 Rank Kris Jenkins
DL | Projection: 2nd Round - Over, probably an early 2nd rounder, doesn't fit what the Lions need. Pass
55 Rank Roman Wilson
WR | Projection: 2nd Round - Over, already moving up draft boards, doesn't fit with the Lions roster but if he slides I could see them taking a shot anyways
65 Rank Blake Corum
Under, I would bet my life savings and house Corum is drafted after 65.
68 Rank Junior Colson
LB | Projection: 3rd Round - 68 is push territory for me. LB positional value drops him a bit. I would want the Lions to pass because we don't need another LB that can't execute a zone drop
76 Rank Mike Sainristil
CB | Projection: 3rd Round - Under, classic "it only takes one team" guy but I think size and age will spook people enough to push him into the back half of round 3
98 Rank Zak Zinter
IOL | Projection: 3rd Round - Under, Guards aren't that valuable and his injury will scare teams. One of the few guys on this list I would actually want the Lions to take especially if he's there on day 3.
182 Rank Trevor Keegan
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Over, seems more like the 5-6th round for Keegan than the 6-7th round.
188 Rank Drake Nugent
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Under. Undersized but gritty center gets drafted but not until round 7. Ragnow means 0 chance the Lions draft him
192 Rank A.J. Barner
TE | Projection: 6th Round - Over, Opposite of Corum, I would bet my life savings/house Barner is gone before 192. Definitely ok with a Lions pick here as the 2nd TE has been an issue for while now
194 Rank Braiden McGregor
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - Over, someone will take a flyer on his measurables earlier than this. We are reaching the point of the draft I have no strong Lions opinions on taking guys. Lottery ticket territory
203 Rank Jaylen Harrell
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - Push
204 Rank Ladarius Henderson
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Over, too many tools and measurables, someone takes a chance
213 Rank Michael Barrett
LB | Projection: 6th Round - Under, age and size pushes him into UDFA territory
266 Rank Josh Wallace
CB | Projection: UDFA - Push, camp body likely PS or misses a roster
267 Rank Cornelius Johnson
WR | Projection: UDFA - Push, hardest guy to place. Day 2 measurables and awful film. Cowards pick of UDFA
321 Rank Karsen Barnhart
OT | Projection: UDFA - Push, camp body likely PS or misses a roster. Gets his shot but doesn't have the natural strength for the NFL lines.
441 Rank Trente Jones
OT | Projection: UDFA - Over, Someone's gonna take a flyer on his measurables. If he ends up a UDFA I would love for the Lions to make him a priority.
Fair. But a number one overall tackle you're hoping for 4 all-pro seasons and 8-10 pro bowls. Injuries are not really the player's fault either.
Don't forget about Packers OC Adam Stenavich
He had drop issues at Michigan and those cropped up big time in the NFL. The reason he was a bust at least tracked.
The reason Devin Bush failed surprised me, it wasn't size, he basically could really read a play or do zone drops.
Good answers so far, I'll add Jake Long just being an average tackle was surprising to me.
I meant that if they hypothetically played an NHL schedule of 82 games they would be the team that would be off to a slow start but at some point would get "hot" because the underlying metrics are strong.
One would think that over the course of a long season (82 games) Michigan would end up near the top of the season standings due to regression to the mean. They are the kind of team where if you are a higher seed you don't want to draw them but if you were a lower seed you would want to play Michigan. A bit of a paradoxical team.
He will be drafted but I would be very surprised if it is before Day 3. His 2023 film compared to his 2022 film makes him look like he lost a step, whether that was coming back from injury or if he actually lost a step doesn't matter to NFL scouts. To us he is Blake the Great, but to scouts he is an undersized RB who has multiple injuries, a lot of wear on the tires, and the most recent film is worse than the prior film.
People in power will continue to put out the level of product the fans tolerate, the only power fans have is whether they attend games or not. I'm glad the arena was full with an embarrassing amount of Purdue fans because it shows the AD fans won't tolerate this level of performance.
I'm afraid we are heading for a Patrick Ewing/GTown situation.
His tenure at Georgetown:
2018: 15-15
2019: 19-14
2020: 15-17
2021: 13-13 <--------Should have been fired here
2022: 6-25 <----------Okay no way we can retain this guy
2023: 7-25 <----------Dead Dove Do Not Eat
fuck
If you collectively bargain you can cap income. I don't know if he going to that extent with his comments but I think the ultimate endpoint is a collectively bargained cap.
They are 105th on Kenpom and 8-18, that is not the fault of Warde and admissions. There are less talented teams performing far better than this team. That's coaching. Give John Beilein this exact roster and they are a 6-8 seed shaping up to be a team that is gonna give a higher seed absolute hell in the second round.
I don't get how people don't get this at this point. Coaching hires are crapshoots with very rare exceptions. Sometimes good ideas fail and bad ideas work. Juwan at the time seemed like a good idea given the circumstances and it didn't work. The roster management, the defensive coaching, and culture have all dropped to basically rock bottom in year 5. You just keep trying good ideas and one will work, maybe even the next one.
The difference is that both Harbaugh and Beilein had long track records of success prior to the down years. Also Harbaugh had the backdrop of a global pandemic and a "will they/won't they" play off-season. Beilein's down season saw the bullshit McGary suspension before the year AND Caris LeVert season ending foot fracture early in the season. That is two All America level guys he lost and still put together a watchable competent basketball team. While Juwan did have the off-season heart procedure this was a team picked to finish 11th so being bad was not a surprise to anyone.
They are 8-18 and underdogs in every remaining game. Even if they improve by 10 wins next year, which to be clear is not guaranteed and would a massive improvement, they would still likely not be a tournament team. That is how far away we are at this point. There are lots of quality coaches at lower levels or equal levels that can be poached. TJ Otzelberger is top of the list, McDermott at Creighton is reportedly looking around, Dusty May is gonna be looking, Mitch Henderson at Princeton is worth looking at, Darian DeVries at Drake has a .730 win % and 3 NCAA tournaments in 6 seasons and is only 48. Point is there are fair number of coaches I'd take my chances with over Juwan going forward.