a terrible blight on our fine country
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|1 hour 3 min ago||This Right Here...||
If you consider the teams that generally use the 3-3-5 or variants of it - aside from Arizona, for example, Boise State has been known to fall back into it, as has TCU (as a variation on the 4-2-5 flex), and even BYU once in a rare while has used it situationally - it is to better defend spread offenses, which some of these teams face quite a bit.
I tend to think some teams will utilize it because they are a bit undersized and can instead use speed to create assignment issues to confuse offenses. I could be wrong about that observation, but it seems common among teams that run a 3-3-5 even only part of the time. It opens the door to a wide variety of zone blitzes since it is mostly used in zone anyway, but to manage any of that, you need high-level, physical, tough and pretty swift personnel on defense. If you don't have that, it seems like it is hard to run the 3-3-5 even in a situation where it IS probably a sensible counter to the offense presented.
|1 hour 24 min ago||Disagree...||
While Rudock hasn't been the Unstoppable Throw God in the passing game or indeed what some people would like to see at the position ultimately, he's been good enough and at least has the requisite in-game experience, and he's able to manage the game in a way that I doubt the available backups could right now.
I'll trust the staff here - Rudock probably is the best QB available on the roster. That's not necessarily saying he's fan-effing-tastic in all aspects of the position, and what that might say about the state of things before Rudock arrived is something we can leave to individual interpretation.
I still don't understand what people expect right now necessarily - I had thought we knew that 2015 was going to be a bit of a transitional year on the offense, QB included. If you want the best chance to win games and make that 8-4 to 9-3 prediction that a lot of people had come to fruition, Jake Rudock is the guy.
|2 hours 59 min ago||Some Nostalgia...||
One of the cooler commercials on TV as I was growing up, I always thought -
...and for those of you who ever traversed a Highland Appliance -
|3 hours 37 min ago||Why Not Indeed...||
One of my favorite non-Michigan shirts:
|5 hours 27 min ago||For #4...||
For #4, I think there are services like Unblock-US.com where - for a small fee - you can get the ability to do some IP spoofing and make networks act as if your machine is in the United States. I know that this is how some folks abroad get American Netflix content anyway, but I assume that there are other services / methods for doing it.
|6 hours 43 min ago||Only Somewhat Related...||
This is only somewhat related perhaps, but I was actually doing the probability matrix for the rest of the season with Massey Ratings a little while ago and right now the estimates for various scenarios look like this -
Running the table - 3.8892%
6-1, sole loss being OSU - 7.550%
6-1 sole loss being MSU - 3.737%
6-1, sole loss being NW - 2.593%
5-2, lose to both rivals - 7.254%
4-3, lose to NW and rivals - 4.836%
The primary reason the numbers look as they do, of course, is that there are 7 games left and therefore 128 possible combinations of wins and losses, but I am saying there is a chance.
|9 hours 26 min ago||As A Lions Fan...||
You know, I'll probably always be a Lions fan - I grew up one and I am weirdly loyal like that, but yet I find my feelings towards them much more complex and considered when it comes to the subject of losing. Like someone said above, when Michigan loses, I feel genuinely awful and sometimes I feel that way for days. When the Lions lose, it is very easy to analyze and compartmentalize, or rather, it is far easier to do than when Michigan loses.
Maybe not everyone does this, but I approach the Lions and my Lions fandom with a vastly different mindset as a fan, given their history and because of game-changing calls like last night that don't go their way historically, than I do my Michigan fandom.
|9 hours 36 min ago||Interesting Article...||
Michigan under Jim Harbaugh, however, is never going to be defined by its weaknesses. Instead, it will be defined by how it overcomes those weaknesses, and — somehow, someway — even turns those weaknesses into strengths.
While I had quibbles with certain parts of this analysis, this statement towards the end is something I would tend to agree with merely because of the apparent style of Harbaugh's coaching and the way in which this team plays. Even if there's a question at one spot, the answer is somewhere else. Even as the offense might work in fits and spurts, the defense is consistently insurmountable. It seems like a core operating principle of this team really.
|19 hours 20 min ago||Quick Question...||
As Martha Ford is the majority owner now, I am interested in theories on how this trade would go down actually. Grosse Pointe would lose a ton of tax revenue if you traded the whole family (as would Superior Township, if we're talking about William Clay Ford, Jr.), so I think we have to be careful here when making such a trade.
|21 hours 12 min ago||The Reaction...||
You could see some tense Buckeye faces in the stands during that game, to be sure, but then there was a totally measured reaction that is normal when your struggling offense goes up 2 on Indiana:
I guess it really is the little victories right now in Columbus.
|21 hours 41 min ago||Oh Wow...||
You know, in a lot of other places in the world, re-enacting the 25th anniversary of an event like this might actually be interesting, even reverent in some way. In football, especially football officiating, it's probably best not to do this....ever. After watching that video in the KSU blog article, I cannot believe no one caught this as there were so many chances to stop what was going on, it seemed.
|1 day 5 min ago||About This...||
At a glance, the loss of Smith might not seem like a major one; he ranked eighth on the team in receptions before his injury. But of the seven players ahead of him, only Michael Thomas plays as a pure wideout rather than an H-back-receiver hybrid, or tight end, or tailback.
Yeah, from what I have seen, despite not having huge numbers he's definitely got a role in that offese because of the situation described about, and especially if you aren't running on all cylinders, you would prefer to have all those guys available. Hopefully, his recovery is full and speedy.
|1 day 40 min ago||On Jenkins-Stone...||
It seems to me that the one thing that we need to hope for is that Royce Jenkins-Stone can get in on some of the same opportunities for tackles for loss as well as sacks. Ojemudia had 6 TFL for 27 yards and 2 sacks for 20 yards in 5 games, so I'll be curious to see how this goes - that's rather a lot of production to replace.
|1 day 3 hours ago||Sadly....||
Sadly, if it is an Achilles tear, I would seriously doubt that - from what I understand, that's a 4-6 month rehab generally, although I am only going on what I know from people who have experienced that. His season is sadly done, as is his career at Michigan as others have said.
|1 day 4 hours ago||BTN...||
The conference networks get the sloppy seconds of ABC/ESPN for the most part, I believe. They took Wisconsin / Nebraska as their regional 3:30 PM game (it will be seen on ESPN2 in some locations), so BTN took Michigan / Northwestern - it was probably that simple, as strange as it might sound now given the current rankings.
|1 day 4 hours ago||It's Understandable...||
It's understandable though as the algorithm weights recent performance. Without any of 2015's data in there in August, Massey would have made Michigan out to be a 6-6-ish team (allowing for the possibility that you are definitely at risk in games just about that 50% line). I am working on the matrix today, but the swing is now to about 9-3, so in five games, Michigan has gone +3 on projected wins. Not bad indeed.
|1 day 4 hours ago||Yikes...||
See, it was cholera that always went through my party like wildfire, so the basic lesson would be not to drink from the same rivers in which your family just crapped - not that you had control over that part of the simulation anyway, and indeed, the seedier, more personal aspects of trail life seemed to be overlooked.
Anyway, does this mean a halftime elk hunt? Do yor skip the funeral for one of your oxen at the expense of party morale? So many possibilities here.
|1 day 4 hours ago||Discovered This...||
I discovered this the other day actually - I was getting annoyed with the issue on Android so I tested this very thing on my wife's iPhone just for kicks and it works without issue. I normally access it from a desktop anyway unless I am at a game, but when you're trying to read the site on the fly, the redirects have been a major stumbling block.
|1 day 4 hours ago||The Good And Not So Much...||
Probably a very sound strategy to save Smith and Stribling for the Northwestern / MSU stretch and give them that extra week to get back to 100% or as close to it as possible. As for Ojemudia, I think we were sort of prepared to hear this, but it still sucks to actually hear it - hopefully, his recovery is full and as speedy as possible.
|1 day 4 hours ago||Good To Know...||
I am pretty sure that my wife will want me to go to this party that happens to be on that day and around that time, so now I have to make this cough and cold last another two weeks or so. I think I can sell it, or at least, it has worked in the past. Still, this is one I would have assumed to be a 3:30 PM start just by the way the slate was beginning to shape up.
|1 day 17 hours ago||If You Think About It...||
Schlabach's projection of Boise State and Houston in the Hawai'i Bowl - while undoubtedly premature by a mile or more as these projections are - brings up an interesting mind exercise. That could very well be one of those quintessential games where zero fucks are given on the defensive side of the ball.
|1 day 17 hours ago||It Is Interesting...||
It's still rather interesting that a few folks who at least passed this way - through Ann Arbor - now have found themselves at San Jose State, even if totally unintentionally. In addition to Borges and Ferrigno, Greg Robinson and Adam Stenavich are out there now, if memory serves (Borges and Robinson are Califiornia natives, I believe, so maybe it is a bit of a homecoming).
|1 day 19 hours ago||I am just going to go ahead||
I am just going to go ahead and say that the last panel may be eerily accurate, at least when it comes to this week's TWIS. I assume many of the Texas comments we will see were typed or tweeted by fans who were in fact bleeding out their eyes as they were commenting.
|1 day 19 hours ago||This Photo...||
I am just impressed that Narduzzi was apparently able to fit an entire hanging folder in his back pocket, no doubt with the playcalls indexed by coverage shells and estimated probability of PI calls. Say what you will about the man, but he wears that particular look well for some reason.
|1 day 22 hours ago||Thread Titles...||
Wood strikes again
Thread titles, man. We need to title better. We'll work on it in practice this week, eh?
|1 day 23 hours ago||Some Numbers...||
If you break out the Spartans' rankings on individual metrics, it's kind of a mixed bag but very little of it is the Spartans that we've seen over the last several years, at least on defense. Some highlights, per TeamRankings:
Points per game allowed - 20.8 (#31)
Yards per game allowed - 376.8 (#52)
Yards per play allowed - 5.2 (#53)
3rd down conversion percentage allowed - 40.30% (#75)
Pass completion percentage allowed - 60.71 (#78)
|2 days 23 min ago||It's Interesting...||
This is where you see Vegas steering the money a bit - people might take that bet on Northwestern. What's funny to me this time around is that if you used the Sagarin ratings for Michigan and Northwestern as line predictor (which some people do), you would get 6.84 (so, a TD - 88.01-83.88 then add the 2.71 HFA predictor) in favor of Michigan, which is actually what I thought it would have been before I saw this thread
|2 days 1 hour ago||I Saw That...||
Toledo has been at least getting votes for weeks now and finally has cracked the Top 25, and it makes me wonder when they made it to the final poll for either the AP or Coaches poll. It had to be during the Amstutz years about 15 years ago, if I remember correctly. Just another example how college football is funny sometimes.
|2 days 3 hours ago||About This...||
As I mentioned in the other thread, we probably won't be able to avoid having separate AP and Coaches' thread, mostly because these two polls generate rather a lot of discussion on their own most weeks. Having a combo thread for the stats and algorithm-based metrics - which normally don't feature heavily around here (they are fun to discuss all the same) is a good idea though and provides a nice forum for the numbers-oriented crowd.
|2 days 5 hours ago||Individual Estimates...||
First and foremost, having a combined rankings / metrics thread actually is a good idea, although we probably won't be able to avoid having seaprate threads for the AP and Coaches polls. Actually, it is these days that make me yearn for Pollspeak to come back - the individual votes by writer were a mere download away then.
Looking at Massey's individual probability estimates for games, it's remarkable how much rosier that picture has become in the space of a few days. On Thursday, the estimated win probability for the MSU game was 35% - it is 50% now. Penn State jumped from 60% to 70% and Ohio State from 23% to 34%. I will do the matrix this week and post it, but the Harbaugh Effect is now being felt in these metrics.