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As the owner of three BMW…

As the owner of three BMW X5s, I can speak with experience:  stay away from the 4.4L V8.  Buy literally anything else.  If you wake up having purchased a BMW with a 4.4L V8, consider completely changing your identity and moving to an Eastern European country to ensure that you have adequately abandoned the car.

I've spent way too much time…

I've spent way too much time worrying/thinking/ruminating about success rate - especially net success rate - over the years.

First things first:  Fleming is an EPA guy, which means he measures success rate (as I understand it) not based on percentage of yardage gained towards first down per down, but instead by whether or not a play generates more (a success) or less (a failure) than the expected amount of baseline EPA added at that down and distance.  These are not the same measure, although they'd be roughly close.  Suffice it to say, however, Fleming's success rate measure slightly favors teams that gain consistent yardage down-over-down versus the "percent to gain" approach.  This, I think, means EPA-measured success rates will slightly penalize Michigan versus percent-gain approaches because it's obvious that we're more than happy to get 2 yards if it's 3rd and 1.  That's a success for a percent-gain measure, but may well be a failure for an EPA measure if team averages tend to overshoot that measure on similarly-situated 3rd downs.

Second:  there is no garbage time in the Michigan PSU game, which Fleming confirmed on Twitter.  This means we really took it hard for the purposes of net success rate during PSU's last few drives, because we were trying to incentivize small, consistent gains from PSU (preferentially by running the ball to keep the clock moving) in order to protect against big explosives.

This post rocks.

This post rocks.

“I see it happening.  I see…

“I see it happening.  I see the tight end breaking across.  And I see him open.  And I see the arc of the ball.  And I just say out loud ‘oh no.’

And then Mike Sainristil.  This nothing recruit, out of nowhere Massachusetts, just makes it up.  

So we have a different story.”

I know that feel.

That's fair.  I do not think…

That's fair.  I do not think it is equivalent to an actual bloodsport, where fatality or incapacitation of one player is the actual ultimate goal.  Where we disagree is with respect to the function of violence in both sports.  You think violence is facilitative of football.  I think it's inherent.

I understand this position,…

I understand this position, but I respectfully disagree with it.  I think that the medical scientific consensus is that the amount of football that can be played without incurring any brain health risk is zero regardless of how "dirty" you want to play.  I don't think we can split the atom and make safe football.  That's the disturbing part.

There's another side of this too, of course:  exposure to risk is unethical when it is involuntary.  Once it becomes voluntary because the risks are known, the moral harm arguably dissipates and it becomes an analysis of the audience:  what am I willing to watch?

Playing football was a vital part of my upbringing.  It taught me to live at peace alongside and among violence and to tame it.  But sometimes at night I get headaches, and when I'm alone I am left to wonder.

Oh, duh.  I'd for some…

Oh, duh.  I'd for some bizarre reason thought he had, but if he had it wouldn't be 3rd and 600 or whatever it ended up being because it had been called a fumble recovered by Michigan.

Either way, this was a pretty dreadful play.

I agree completely that…

I agree completely that McCarthy was throwing a pass on that terrible 2nd down scramble where a Maryland DT ate his face and they called it a fumble.  But I actually don't think it would have been intentional grounding.  It's certainly close, but I'm pretty sure McCarthy leaves the 5-yard tackle box during one of his ill-fated soujourns to his right before doubling back to his left.  And although I don't dispute he was in the pocket when he got annihilated, the tackle box dissolves the moment the ball leaves it pursuant to Rule 2 Section 34.

Not that I have any interest…

Not that I have any interest in speculating about anyone in particular, but sub ~5% sexual functioning almost always stops.

I hate even saying this, but…

I hate even saying this, but I am a former amateur bodybuilder.  This measurement almost certainly is wrong.  Although SOME professional bodybuilders have approached or achieved body fat percentages ~2%, they have extraordinary and extraordinarily obvious characteristics:  you'll be able to see striations in the musculature of the face and feet, the athlete will be so extraordinarily slothful that it's readily apparent, and they often won't be able to stand for more than thirty minutes without feeling faint and needing to sit. The athlete's back will look like a grotesque topographical map of the rocky mountains.  Jerry Rice notoriously trained and reported to a training camp with a body fat percentage under 4% one year and needed to pause his training because he couldn't physically get through a single day's practice.  Something's off about the measurements here.

That's all the more evident when you look at the other test results.  It's highly unlikely any of these athletes are ~5, let alone nearly a dozen below that line.

$500 donor right here.  That…

$500 donor right here.  That's not small money for me - I'm nowhere near that fortunate.  But I've been talking for years about how I want to help NIL, so here's a chance for money where the mouth is.

LET'S GO GUYS!

Somehow knew it immediately …

Somehow knew it immediately - it's Caris, baby.

I respect where you're…

I respect where you're coming from, but this is a very bad take.

Imagine that you're offered two jobs, each from extremely prestigious employers.  One requires a two hour commute each day.  The other does not require any such commute.  Which offer do you accept?

Michigan needs to get real or lower expectations drastically.

Can anybody read lips to…

Can anybody read lips to determine what Clifford freaked out at the towel/water girl about at the end of that clip when he's struggling to breathe on the bench?  Her wide eyes as she turned away from him made it obvious that his reaction was inexplicable.  I mostly ask because I wonder if Clifford wasn't concussed prior to that interaction.

I genuinely wish good health to him moving forward.  That was hard to watch.

PS, Seth - I agree with you on the podcast.  I believe again.

No, it actually supports his…

No, it actually supports his point.  Sam is arguing (and it is a defensible position) that Cade played well, even though we didn't win.  Gardner's counter is that playing well is the floor for him in this game, given that MSU didn't bother defending the pass, and argues further that Cade's inability to pick the game up off the expectation floor is the reason we lost.  He then argues from a position of authority, because he himself was a QB who did a Cade against OSU - he played well, but OSU didn't defend the pass, and although the effort was valiant it was also insufficient.

This post sucks.

This post sucks.

What is more just, in your…

What is more just, in your opinion?  The various forms of relief you (helpfully, seriously) suggested as paths forward for Bell?  Or all of those paths, clear and available, plus money?

Email me if you get a…

Email me if you get a response.  aac [at] hennlesperance[dot]com

I would, but I don’t need…

I would, but I don’t need advertising.  I cannot market my business with his NLI rights.  But I bet someone’s business could…

With our powers combined,…

With our powers combined, perhaps…

Can you ping Seth to get him involved?  No commitment or obligation, but perhaps we could be the force of good?

I’d gladly contribute to the Kickstarter if it meant a special edition HTTV with a Ronnie Bell interview or biography, and a substantial portion of the profits going towards Bell.

I appreciate the perspective…

I appreciate the perspective, but from a lawyer’s view how would ANY of this be adjudicated?  The law has never in other contexts concerned itself with fair market value determination - this is where the “peppercorn” analogy stems from.

Also, how does your perspective square with the MSU news today?

To the extent you believe additional restrictions prohibit “personal, gratuitous transactions,” please cite references and let’s get analytical with it.

Ooh.  Seth, this is worth a…

Ooh.  Seth, this is worth a thought I think.  Great post.

That shirt is so cool!  But…

That shirt is so cool!  But yes, this.  I don’t deserve profits from his misfortune.

You’re right re: of/to. …

You’re right re: of/to.  Mistyped and didn’t want to revisit to edit.

As for your second point, I don’t get it.  We regularly as a society give money to people who suffer misfortune.  And he lost money here.  His injury resulted, I have little doubt, in long-term earnings loss.

I really like this idea. …

I really like this idea.  Seth?  Mods?

Because I’m a busy single…

Because I’m a busy single dad.  I have time to help as I proposed.  I don’t have time to help as you proposed.

If this is true, I vote that…

If this is true, I vote that we up the ante:  new Michigan policy is that we will publicly announce we will refrain from self-reporting any violations in which private third-parties pay our players to sit out the season but remain with the team, and will fight any NCAA violation investigation to the bitter end.  We will also support any other Big Ten program who adopts a similar plan, even if it's Ohio State or MSU.  You can call it "football player pandemic compensation."  I call it "the thing that should have always been permissible in the interest of fairness."

But have you considered...

But have you considered...

NATE OATS

NATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE…

NATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATSNATE OATS

NATE OATS

I don’t know what’s happening

I don’t know what’s happening or not happening. I did like the Enos hire, and I also liked Warriner.

But I do know if we lose Enos or Warriner because we retained Hamilton and Drevno and couldn’t offer the promise of a coordinator spot, that’d be an epic fuck-up.

I know this board will hate

I know this board will hate (1) alternate uniforms and (2) Notre Dame, but I think these are completely awesome.  I doubt I'll watch the Navy game, but I can't wait to see them in action in photos or highlights.

This gave me chills.

This gave me chills.

I literally came to MGoBlog

I literally came to MGoBlog to post a penance thread.

In 2008, I was a senior.  Michigan had been bad for a long time.  The student section had basically nobody in it throughout most of the season.  It was Beilein's second year.

He promised to bring donuts for the Maize Rage Core one time if we came early enough.  He brought the donuts as promised before a game in October.  There were probably twenty people there with only two hours to go before tipoff.

He addressed us.  "Thank you guys for coming early.  I need you guys this year."  We gave a cursory cheer.  Then - and this surprised me - he barked at us a little bit.  "NO.  You don't understand.  Our team isn't where it needs to be.  We're not very good right now, but we're going to get better.  I'm not just saying it - I need you guys this year."

Flash forward to December.  We beat Duke in a thriller in front of a Maize Rage that was 85% full.  Before the next game, the players came out early after warmups and went into the Maize Rage and shook hands and gave high fives.  I could feel the crowd slowly starting to believe.

So I went to the Maize Rage leadership and pitched an idea for a t-shirt.  It was a pretty simple design - BELIEVE was written in block letters, and they cast a shadow that read "BEILEIN."  The guys loved it, and we sold out in no time.  I personally gave John one of the shirts, and I also was able to give one to Erin Andrews.

So it is with a heavy heart that I admit my sins and offer penance.  I stopped believing.

I wish I could say I didn't know better.  But the truth is, I knew better back when I was younger.

I was missing for a while, but now I'm back.  I believe again.

Note that there are 84 names

Note that there are 84 names on this list, but one freshman appears to have been left off inadvertently.  Plus also note that two non-freshman players do not appear on this list.  I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

I ACTUALLY want you to go to

I ACTUALLY want you to go to prison for making this post.

He was. Sorry, Brad.

He was. Sorry, Brad.

Many of Connoley's stats are

Many of Connoley's stats are adjusted for opponents.

Although it is a myth that Michigan merely beat up on inferior opponents and wilted against stronger ones as a team, this criticism held true with respect to offensive rushing performance.  Said differently, the defense thundercrushed Rutgers, but also played great against Ohio State.  But the rushing offense only looked good when the opponents were bad.

It is unethical to follow

It is unethical to follow rules when the rules are unethical.

You know why.

You know why.

I respect this point, and

I respect this point, and sort of agree.  But on the other hand, the war isn't over - the age of the dinosaurs is close to over, but is not quite over yet.

Anybody else ready for

Anybody else ready for Michigan to overtly, Fab Five / SEC-style pay recruits?  I am.

This isn't a case of falling into the common bad actor fallacy (that's the fallacy where you say "well if he's doing evil I can do evil).  Because paying players for their labor isn't evil.

I feel like Michigan is bending over backwards to compete without breaking an unethical rule within a system where nobody else follows that unethical rule.  And this effort, paradoxically, creates all these perverse incentives.

Quick, answer with your gut - Would you rather pay Aubrey Solomon 150K for his committment and break the rule?  Or pay (hypothetically) Aubrey Solomon's high school coach 150K to "do a job" that isn't real and benefits only that coach?  Which is more ethical?

And yes, I'd feel the same way about the matter if I knew that would mean OSU and MSU would do it too.

Let's just end this charade.

(1) Watson and Washington

(1) Watson and Washington were each rated more highly than Sebastian is.

(2) Clark isn't guaranteed to get his sixth year, true.  But even if Sebastian commits, he won't likely be ready to play his first year.  So Clark's spot on the depth chart matters least for deciding whether to recruit Sebastian.

(3) I agree, they have.  But all I can do is offer my opinion on the state of the team and its needs (which should be afforded the weight of a typical online commenter), and I don't get why they feel they need another CB.  Another S I could understand.

(4) True.

(5) I don't think this adage applies here.  He plays for Cheshire Academy - the same team as Tarik Black, who is a borderline top 100 player.

I trust the coaches, so I'm

I trust the coaches, so I'm fine with it.

But I don't understand it:

  1. CB is not a position of need.  Look at the depth chart.  This coming year, we'll have:
  • Potentially, one sixth year player:  Jeremy Clark
  • One redshirt junior:  Brandon Watson
  • One redshirt sophomore:  Keith Washington
  • One true sophomore:  Lavert Hill
  • One redshirt freshman, I'd imagine:  David Long
  • Two true freshmen:  Ambry Thomas and Benjamin St-Juste
  1. Brandon Sebastian isn't a "FSU/UCLA/Oklahoma three star."  He's a sub-Minnesota three star.  In terms of the 247 composite percentile grade, Sebastian will be our worst recruit by some distance if he commits.  Look at this offer list:
  • BC
  • UConn
  • Rutgers
  • Syracuse
  • Temple
  • Rhode Island
  • ...Michigan
  1. His tape is... real bad.  Sorry, I said it.  I will admit that he does appear to be blazing fast in terms of straight line speed, and that's a very important attribute for a college football player.  But I don't see how this player's skills are capable of translating to anything other than a dimeback at this level.  That's not nothing, but is that worth a scholarship at this point?

Now, there's tons of information I don't have.  Maybe Sebastian is a legendary effort or workout guy who will inspire the team.  Maybe he's such a high character person Harbaugh wants him around the locker room.  Maybe there's some technique deficiency the coaches have spotted that they feel they can iron out.  But if I had a vote (and I most certainly do not and should not), Sebastian would be a "hard pass" for me.

He does. But if he tried to

He does. But if he tried to commit tomorrow I do not believe we'd take him (be able to take him might be the better way to put it).

Updated after Harris

Updated after Harris reaffirmed to Alabama.

Respectfully, we're not doing

Respectfully, we're not doing this here.

I eagerly invite you to post

I eagerly invite you to post your own corrections/clarifications or individual takes with this list.  You da real Swim Lane OG.

Casual posters - this guy is the king of recruiting information synthesis.  If he posts it, it's worth thinking about.

Well... that's definitive.

Well... that's definitive.

I hate to throw water on this

I hate to throw water on this thread, but there's some vague (but extant!) smoke about Wheatley leaving with Fisch for UCLA.  That... would be a big problem.

I'd give this one a hard

I'd give this one a hard pass.  Absolutely not.  As an additional "hell no," recall that Loeffler was the QB coach who was hired instead of Harbaugh back in the twilight of the Carr years.