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- CB is not a position of need. Look at the depth chart. This coming year, we'll have:
- Potentially, one sixth year player: Jeremy Clark
- One redshirt junior: Brandon Watson
- One redshirt sophomore: Keith Washington
- One true sophomore: Lavert Hill
- One redshirt freshman, I'd imagine: David Long
- Two true freshmen: Ambry Thomas and Benjamin St-Juste
- Brandon Sebastian isn't a "FSU/UCLA/Oklahoma three star." He's a sub-Minnesota three star. In terms of the 247 composite percentile grade, Sebastian will be our worst recruit by some distance if he commits. Look at this offer list:
- Rhode Island
- His tape is... real bad. Sorry, I said it. I will admit that he does appear to be blazing fast in terms of straight line speed, and that's a very important attribute for a college football player. But I don't see how this player's skills are capable of translating to anything other than a dimeback at this level. That's not nothing, but is that worth a scholarship at this point?
|1 week 1 day ago||Many of Connoley's stats are||
Many of Connoley's stats are adjusted for opponents.
Although it is a myth that Michigan merely beat up on inferior opponents and wilted against stronger ones as a team, this criticism held true with respect to offensive rushing performance. Said differently, the defense thundercrushed Rutgers, but also played great against Ohio State. But the rushing offense only looked good when the opponents were bad.
|1 week 5 days ago||It is unethical to follow||
It is unethical to follow rules when the rules are unethical.
|1 week 5 days ago||You know why.||
You know why.
|1 week 5 days ago||I respect this point, and||
I respect this point, and sort of agree. But on the other hand, the war isn't over - the age of the dinosaurs is close to over, but is not quite over yet.
|1 week 5 days ago||Anybody else ready for||
Anybody else ready for Michigan to overtly, Fab Five / SEC-style pay recruits? I am.
This isn't a case of falling into the common bad actor fallacy (that's the fallacy where you say "well if he's doing evil I can do evil). Because paying players for their labor isn't evil.
I feel like Michigan is bending over backwards to compete without breaking an unethical rule within a system where nobody else follows that unethical rule. And this effort, paradoxically, creates all these perverse incentives.
Quick, answer with your gut - Would you rather pay Aubrey Solomon 150K for his committment and break the rule? Or pay (hypothetically) Aubrey Solomon's high school coach 150K to "do a job" that isn't real and benefits only that coach? Which is more ethical?
And yes, I'd feel the same way about the matter if I knew that would mean OSU and MSU would do it too.
Let's just end this charade.
|2 weeks 2 hours ago||(1) Watson and Washington||
(1) Watson and Washington were each rated more highly than Sebastian is.
(2) Clark isn't guaranteed to get his sixth year, true. But even if Sebastian commits, he won't likely be ready to play his first year. So Clark's spot on the depth chart matters least for deciding whether to recruit Sebastian.
(3) I agree, they have. But all I can do is offer my opinion on the state of the team and its needs (which should be afforded the weight of a typical online commenter), and I don't get why they feel they need another CB. Another S I could understand.
(5) I don't think this adage applies here. He plays for Cheshire Academy - the same team as Tarik Black, who is a borderline top 100 player.
|2 weeks 4 hours ago||I trust the coaches, so I'm||
I trust the coaches, so I'm fine with it.
But I don't understand it:
Now, there's tons of information I don't have. Maybe Sebastian is a legendary effort or workout guy who will inspire the team. Maybe he's such a high character person Harbaugh wants him around the locker room. Maybe there's some technique deficiency the coaches have spotted that they feel they can iron out. But if I had a vote (and I most certainly do not and should not), Sebastian would be a "hard pass" for me.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||He does. But if he tried to||
He does. But if he tried to commit tomorrow I do not believe we'd take him (be able to take him might be the better way to put it).
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Updated after Harris||
Updated after Harris reaffirmed to Alabama.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Respectfully, we're not doing||
Respectfully, we're not doing this here.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||I eagerly invite you to post||
I eagerly invite you to post your own corrections/clarifications or individual takes with this list. You da real Swim Lane OG.
Casual posters - this guy is the king of recruiting information synthesis. If he posts it, it's worth thinking about.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||You really, really want to||
You really, really want to delete this post. Trust me.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||Well... that's definitive.||
Well... that's definitive.
|3 weeks 18 hours ago||I hate to throw water on this||
I hate to throw water on this thread, but there's some vague (but extant!) smoke about Wheatley leaving with Fisch for UCLA. That... would be a big problem.
|3 weeks 18 hours ago||I'd give this one a hard||
I'd give this one a hard pass. Absolutely not. As an additional "hell no," recall that Loeffler was the QB coach who was hired instead of Harbaugh back in the twilight of the Carr years.
|3 weeks 18 hours ago||Let's review Roman's||
Let's review Roman's sabermetric profile right quick.
Roman coached at the following pro and college stops:
CAROLINA (1995-2001): Offensive Line Assistant
Can't judge too much just because he wasn't in charge of the offensive line and there were surely other factors at play considering the Panthers were a newly minted expansion team. So let's ignore this stop.
TEXANS (2002-2005): TE and QB Coach
Coached under Dom Capers. Team was pretty terrible throughout his entire tenure. In 2002, David Carr was ghastly, but TE Billy Miller had a highly capable year with nearly 80 targets and 600 yards receiving (Miller was the highest ranked TE in DYAR that season. Carr's performance in 2003 improved slightly, but Miller's declined and the Texans alternate, something named Jabari Holloway, actually started the majority of games at TE. 2004 was a much better year for both the team and for the units under Roman's control - Carr had his only decent professional year (~61%/7.6 YPA/16 TD 14 INT), when he was actually roughly a replacement-level NFL player. The team plummeted into utter garbage for 2005, however, and Capers was fired along with his staff.
RAVENS (2006-2007): Offensive Line Assistant
As above, there's not much we can read into here. For what little it's worth, BAL's offensive lines weren't terribly good during either 2006 or 2007. BAL finished ranked 21 in adjusted line yards in 2006, although they were the second best team under FO's adjusted sack rate that year. 2007 wasn't much better, as the Ravens ranked 27th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Yikes. Overall, not a great stop, which might explain...
Holy Spirit High School (2008): Head Coach
Stanford (2009-2010): TE and Offensive Tackles Coach
Here's where things get interesting. Obviously Roman doesn't necessarily get complete credit as he was only a positional coach, but Stanford's offensive output between 09 and 10 might surprise you:
S&P+ - 6th rated overall offense, improving from 31st the year prior. 12th rushing offense, 7th passing offense
FEI - 4th rated overall offense, improving from 31st the year prior. 6th in offensive efficiency (pass and rush together)
S&P+ - 3rd rated overall offense, 30th rushing offense, 2nd passing offense
FEI - 1st rated overall offense, 2nd in offensive efficiency
SAN FRANCISCO (2011-2014): Offensive Coordinator
Intersected with Jim Harbaugh's tenure, obviously. Performance was good to great throughout:
2011 - 18th overall offense, improving from 24th the year prior. 13th passing offense, 24th rushing offense in DVOA
2012 - 5th overall offense, 6th passing offense, 3rd rushing offense in DVOA
2013 - 8th overall offense, 4th passing offense, 14th rushing offense in DVOA
2014 - 16th overall offense, 21 passing offense, 8th rushing offense in DVOA
BUFFALO (2015-2016): Offensive Coordinator
Here, from a strictly statistical standpoint, it was baffling to me that he caught the blame for Buffalo's modest success. 2015 was a tremendous improvement and surprise:
2015 - 9th overall offense, improving from 26th the year prior. 12th passing offense, 2nd rushing offense in DVOA
2016 - 8th overall offense, 4th passing offense, 1st rushing offense (keeping in mind he was fired early in the year)
Overall, I think this is a very strong statistical resume. I wouldn't be upset if Roman joined as a full-time offensive coordinator. He'd be my second choice of available coaches after Kevin Wilson, with the full understanding that Harbaugh wouldn't probably rank those two the same.
|3 weeks 20 hours ago||...Kevin Wilson. Yeah, I||
Yeah, I know. But I don't care. This would be my dream.
|3 weeks 2 days ago||No Dawson OR Kugler? Holy||
No Dawson OR Kugler?
Holy shit. I'm trying to trust the system but this seems insane.
|5 weeks 6 days ago||It's "high," but maybe not||
It's "high," but maybe not "would commit right now" high.
Based on everything I've read and inferences drawn from the same, I believe that (1) Harris has told Michigan's coaches he is committing to Michigan, (2) Michigan's coaches don't want four running backs, and (3) Michigan is confident that if Samuels leaves, they may be able to replace him with Benjamin. As a result, I think Dillon was the odd man out, but we would have been willing to retain his commitment if he'd have been willing to reaffirm it.
I like Dillon as a prospect, but I consider his skill level significantly behind Harris and Samuels, and a little behind Benjamin's.
|6 weeks 5 days ago||Proposterously filthy tape.||
Proposterously filthy tape.
|7 weeks 6 days ago||Lock this up - there is no||
Lock this up - there is no way whatsoever Colorado, Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State go and we don't. The resume difference is horrifying (except for CO, but we'd have a head-to-head win).
|8 weeks 1 day ago||What the hell is going on in||
What the hell is going on in this post
|8 weeks 1 day ago||Had a great experience. Fan||
Had a great experience. Fan unpleasantness was minimal, and the majority were welcoming and wonderful. Would go back to Columbus again.
|8 weeks 3 days ago||Also interested in this||
Also interested in this
|8 weeks 3 days ago||This owns.||
|8 weeks 4 days ago||Welp.||
|9 weeks 23 hours ago||This is savage, fam.||
This is savage, fam.
|9 weeks 3 days ago||READER QUESTION: Are we||
READER QUESTION: Are we likely to see a Michigan defense this good again within the next 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? Ever?
|10 weeks 22 hours ago||Quick WR screen against a||
Quick WR screen against a cover 2 defense with Desmond King is... not advisable.
|10 weeks 1 day ago||I hate posting this, but a||
I hate posting this, but a reputable poster at the Edge of the Internet has confirmed - but only to the extent that his sources have told him this is true - that Speight's collar bone is broken.
I've been a professional mentally ill Michigan fan and message board scourer for about five years now. Based on my previous experience panning for nuggets of actual information from across the internet, I regretfully conclude that the weight of the evidence points to this being true at this point.
Hopefully, this can be chalked up either to (1) an echo chamber effect or (2) faulty information delivered to a root source.